Predictors of primary health care utilization by former residents of institutions in Ontario

For years institutionalization has been the primary method of service delivery for persons with developmental disabilities (DD). However, in Ontario the last institution was closed on March 31, 2009 with former residents now residing in small, communitybased homes. This study investigated potential predictors of primary health care utilization by former residents. Several indirect measures were employed to gather information from 60 participants on their age, health status, adaptive functioning level, problem behaviour, mental health status and, total psychotropic medication use. A direct measure was used to gather primary health care utilization information, which served as the dependent variable. A stepwise linear regression failed to reveal significant predictors of health care utilization. The data were subsequently dichotomized and the outcomes of a logistic regression analysis indicated that mental health status, psychotropic medication use and, an interaction between mental health status and health status significantly predicted higher primary health care usage.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.

Divulgación on-line de los códigos de buen gobierno en las IES y su determinación para el posicionamiento en el ranking QS

Dado el interés que se presenta con los temas de gobierno corporativo, este trabajo busca describir si la divulgación on-line de los contenidos de los códigos de buen gobierno, es determinante en el posicionamiento que tienen las Instituciones de Educación Superior (IES) en el ranking QS. Partiendo de una muestra de 20 IES, se recolectaron un conjunto de datos dicotómicos para 30 variables independientes y se relacionaron con la variable dependiente denominada posicionamiento en el ranking. A partir de lo anterior, se elaboró un trabajo descriptivo y correlacional con el fin de probar las hipótesis de investigación. Este estudio reveló que la divulgación on-line de los contenidos de los códigos de buen gobierno en las IES, no es determinante para el posicionamiento en el ranking QS.

Scale-invariant moving finite elements for nonlinear partial differential equations in two dimensions

A scale-invariant moving finite element method is proposed for the adaptive solution of nonlinear partial differential equations. The mesh movement is based on a finite element discretisation of a scale-invariant conservation principle incorporating a monitor function, while the time discretisation of the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is carried out using a scale-invariant time-stepping which yields uniform local accuracy in time. The accuracy and reliability of the algorithm are successfully tested against exact self-similar solutions where available, and otherwise against a state-of-the-art h-refinement scheme for solutions of a two-dimensional porous medium equation problem with a moving boundary. The monitor functions used are the dependent variable and a monitor related to the surface area of the solution manifold. (c) 2005 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Power properties if invariant tests for spatial autocorrelation in linear regression

This paper derives some exact power properties of tests for spatial autocorrelation in the context of a linear regression model. In particular, we characterize the circumstances in which the power vanishes as the autocorrelation increases, thus extending the work of Krämer (2005). More generally, the analysis in the paper sheds new light on how the power of tests for spatial autocorrelation is affected by the matrix of regressors and by the spatial structure. We mainly focus on the problem of residual spatial autocorrelation, in which case it is appropriate to restrict attention to the class of invariant tests, but we also consider the case when the autocorrelation is due to the presence of a spatially lagged dependent variable among the regressors. A numerical study aimed at assessing the practical relevance of the theoretical results is included

Formulação LTSn para problemas de transporte sem simetria azimutal e problemas dependentes do tempo

Neste trabalho, estendemos, de forma analítica, a formulação LTSN à problemas de transporte unidimensionais sem simetria azimutal. Para este problema, também apresentamos a solução com dependência contínua na variável angular, a partir da qual é estabelecido um método iterativo de solução da equação de transporte unidimensional. Também discutimos como a formulação LTSN é aplicada na resolução de problemas de transporte unidimensionais dependentes do tempo, tanto de forma aproximada pela inversão numérica do fluxo transformado na variável tempo, bem como analiticamente, pela aplicação do método LTSNnas equações nodais. Simulações numéricas e comparações com resultados disponíveis na literatura são apresentadas.

Identification and estimation of interventions using changes in inequality measures

This paper presents semiparametric estimators of changes in inequality measures of a dependent variable distribution taking into account the possible changes on the distributions of covariates. When we do not impose parametric assumptions on the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given covariates, this problem becomes equivalent to estimation of distributional impacts of interventions (treatment) when selection to the program is based on observable characteristics. The distributional impacts of a treatment will be calculated as differences in inequality measures of the potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. These differences are called here Inequality Treatment Effects (ITE). The estimation procedure involves a first non-parametric step in which the probability of receiving treatment given covariates, the propensity-score, is estimated. Using the inverse probability weighting method to estimate parameters of the marginal distribution of potential outcomes, in the second step weighted sample versions of inequality measures are computed. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency are shown for the semiparametric estimators proposed. A Monte Carlo exercise is performed to investigate the behavior in finite samples of the estimator derived in the paper. We also apply our method to the evaluation of a job training program.

Análise dos indicadores de qualidade versus taxa de abandono utilizando método de regressão múltipla para serviço de banda larga

Telecommunication is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Many technological innovations has modified the way information is exchanged. Information and knowledge are now shared in networks. Broadband Internet is the new way of sharing contents and information. This dissertation deals with performance indicators related to maintenance services of telecommunications networks and uses models of multivariate regression to estimate churn, which is the loss of customers to other companies. In a competitive environment, telecommunications companies have devised strategies to minimize the loss of customers. Loosing customers presents a higher cost than obtaining new ones. Corporations have plenty of data stored in a diversity of databases. Usually the data are not explored properly. This work uses the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) to establish rules and new models to explain how churn, as a dependent variable, are related to a diversity of service indicators, such as time to deploy the service (in hours), time to repair (in hours), and so on. Extraction of meaningful knowledge is, in many cases, a challenge. Models were tested and statistically analyzed. The work also shows results that allows the analysis and identification of which quality services indicators influence the churn. Actions are also proposed to solve, at least in part, this problem

Influência das condições de saúde bucal no desempenho das atividades diárias de adolescentes escolares

Instruments are used in odontology to measure the Quality of Life Related to Oral Health (OHRQoL) to scale how the oral condition interferes with functional areas, of the people s psychological and social life. This cross-sectional study, held in Natal/RN, with 215 students from the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN) has investigated the association between the performance of daily activities and oral health status of school adolescents from 15 to 19 years of age, through the normative index DMFT (permanent teeth decayed, missing and filled), CPI (Community Periodontal Index) and DAI (dental Aesthetic Index) and subjective questionnaire assessment of quality of life related oral health OIDP index (oral impacts on daily performance). It was also carried out the socioeconomic characteristics of students through IFRN own data. Concerning the analysis of data was performed a descriptive analysis of the variables by their absolute and relative frequencies and measures of central tendency. The chi-square test was used to assess the association between the dependent variable and the independent categorical variables and the Student t test for quantitative. It was also conducted a further multiple analysis out using Poisson regression with robust variance between the outcome "presence of impact" and the independent variables that showed p <0.20. It was used for all the statistical tests a significance level of 5%. Among the adolescents surveyed, 51.16% reported that at least one activity assessed by OIDP had hampered its implementation due to some dental problem. The difficulties were more pronounced in the activities of eating (31.6%), oral hygiene (25.6%) and smile (25.1%).The tooth position, followed by toothache, were the causes of the impacts reported by most teenagers. There was a significant association between the presence and impact of the presence of one or more decayed teeth (p = 0.012), the presence of gum bleeding (p = 0.012) and for orthodontic treatment (p = 0.003), independently of other variables. There was no significant association between oral health status and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the adolescents. The survey results showed that there is an association between oral health status of the population studied and reports of difficulties in carrying out daily activities evaluated. The worse the oral health status, the greater the impact of this condition on the adolescents quality of life

A produção das desigualdades: análise da relação entre trabalho infantil e indicadores sociais

The International Labor Organization (OIT) estimates that there are around 118 million children subjected to child labor around the world. In Brazil, there are 3.5 million workers aged between 5 and 17. This exploitation practice constitutes a serious social problem, including of Public Health, since these workers are exposed to a wide range of risks, such as those related to health, physical integrity and even to life, which may cause them to become sick adults and/or interrupt their lives prematurely. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the relationship between the frequency of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years and some socio-economic indicators. It is a quantitative research in an ecological study whose levels of analysis are the Brazilian municipalities grouped in 161 regions, defined from socioeconomic criteria. The dependent variable of this study was the prevalence of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years. The independent variables were selected after a correlation between the 2010 Census of child labor in the age group of 10 to 13 years and secondary data had been conducted, adopting two main independent variables: funds from the Family Allowance Program (PBF) per 1,000 inhabitants and Funds from the Child Labor Eradication Program (PETI) per a thousand inhabitants. Initially, it was conducted a descriptive analysis of the variables of the study, then, a bivariate analysis, and the correlation matrix was built. At last, the Multiple Linear Regression stratified analysis was performed. The results of this survey indicate that public policies , like the Bolsa Familia Program Features per 1000 inhabitants and Resources Program for the Eradication of Child Labour to be allocated to municipalities with HDI < 0.697 represent a decrease in the rate of child labor ; These programs have the resources to be invested in municipalities with HDI > = 0.697 have no effect on the rate of child labor. Other adjustment variables showed significance, among these the municipal Human Development Index (IDH), years of schooling at 18 years of age, illiteracy at 15 years of age or more, employees without employment contract at 18 years of age and the Gini Index. It is understood that the child labor issue is complex. The problem is associated, although not restricted to, poverty, the social exclusion and inequality that exist in Brazil, but other factors of cultural and economic nature, as well as of organization of production, also account for its aggravation. Fighting child labor involves a wide intersectoral articulation, shared and integrated with several public policies, among them health, sports, culture, agriculture, labor and human rights, with a view to guaranteeing the integrality of the rights of children and adolescents in situation of labor and of their respective families

Preditores da desnutrição infantil em populações ribeirinhas do Pará

Objetivo: Identificar os determinantes da desnutrição infantil em crianças menores de dois anos de idade em populações ribeirinhas do Pará. Métodos: Estudo transversal foi desenvolvido com 203 crianças residentes em quatro comunidades ribeirinhas: Aveiro (região Sudoeste), Barcarena (região Metropolitana), Cametá (região Nordeste) e Santarém (região do Baixo Amazonas) por meio de entrevista junto ao responsável pela criança. A variável dependente foi desnutrição, considerada presente para índice estatura para idade < -1 escores z de acordo com a referência atual da Organização Mundial da Saúde. As variáveis independentes foram características: de moradia, do chefe da família, da mãe da criança, do pré-natal, do padrão alimentar da família, do nascimento da criança, dos cuidados maternos e demográficos da criança. A prevalência da desnutrição foi calculada conforme indicadores básicos, subjacentes e imediatas, considerando-se a distância entre as variáveis que compõem os indicadores e o desfecho. Análise multinível foi realizada por regressão logística tendo em conta a hierarquia das relações entre os indicadores e a desnutrição, considerando-se p<0,005. Resultados: A prevalência de desnutrição atingiu 35,0 % das crianças estudadas, variando de 28,6% em Aveiro a 43,1% em Barcarena. As variáveis que se associaram com desnutrição foram baixo peso ao nascer e maior idade da criança. A idade da criança foi o preditor da desnutrição: a chance de uma criança entre 12 e 17 meses de idade apresentar desnutrição foi 3,4 vezes maior do que a de uma criança com menos de seis meses, aumentando em cinco vezes para as crianças entre 18 e 23 meses. Conclusão: Em populações ribeirinhas, a desnutrição em menores de dois anos mostra-se ainda como um grave problema de saúde pública, possivelmente pelo maior tempo de exposição aos fatores de risco ambientais.

Uma aplicação do planejamento de experimentos e carta de controle em uma indústria de cosmésticos: ciclo DMAIC

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

From diarrhea to obesity in prohormone convertase 1/3 deficiency: age-dependent clinical, pathologic, and enteroendocrine characteristics

GOALS The aim of this report is to delineate the clinical, pathologic, and enteroendocrine (EE) features of prohormone convertase 1/3 (PC1/3) deficiency in children. BACKGROUND Prohormone convertases play a pivotal role in the activation of biologically inactive hormones. Congenital defects in the EE axis, such as PC1/3 deficiency, have been rarely reported and their pathophysiological mechanisms are largely unknown. STUDY EE function and pathology was evaluated in 4 males (1, 2, 7, and 10 y old) from 2 families with PC1/3 deficiency at a university children's hospital. Clinical course, pathology analysis including immunohistochemistry for PC1/3, PC2, and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and electron microscopy, as well as EE function tests (GLP-1, GLP-2, oral glucose tolerance test) were performed. RESULTS All (n=4) suffered from congenital severe diarrhea associated with malabsorption. The diarrhea improved during the first year of life and hyperphagia with excessive weight gain (BMI>97th percentile) became the predominant phenotype at an older age. Analysis of the enteroendocrine axis revealed high proinsulin levels (57 to 1116 pmol/L) in all patients, low serum GLP-2 levels, and impaired insulin and GLP-1 secretion after an oral glucose tolerance test at a young age, with improvement in 1 older child tested. Electron microscopy showed normal ultrastructure of enterocytes and EE cells. Immunohistochemistry revealed normal expression of chromogranin A, a marker of EE cells but markedly reduced immunostaining for PC1/3 and PC2 in all patients. CONCLUSIONS PC1/3 deficiency is associated with an age dependent, variable clinical phenotype caused by severe abnormalities in intestinal and EE functions. Serum level of proinsulin can be used as an effective screening tool.

Post-remission treatment with allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients aged 60 years and older with acute myeloid leukaemia: a time-dependent analysis

BACKGROUND Acute myeloid leukaemia mainly affects elderly people, with a median age at diagnosis of around 70 years. Although about 50-60% of patients enter first complete remission upon intensive induction chemotherapy, relapse remains high and overall outcomes are disappointing. Therefore, effective post-remission therapy is urgently needed. Although often no post-remission therapy is given to elderly patients, it might include chemotherapy or allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) following reduced-intensity conditioning. We aimed to assess the comparative value of allogeneic HSCT with other approaches, including no post-remission therapy, in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia aged 60 years and older. METHODS For this time-dependent analysis, we used the results from four successive prospective HOVON-SAKK acute myeloid leukaemia trials. Between May 3, 2001, and Feb 5, 2010, a total of 1155 patients aged 60 years and older were entered into these trials, of whom 640 obtained a first complete remission after induction chemotherapy and were included in the analysis. Post-remission therapy consisted of allogeneic HSCT following reduced-intensity conditioning (n=97), gemtuzumab ozogamicin (n=110), chemotherapy (n=44), autologous HSCT (n=23), or no further treatment (n=366). Reduced-intensity conditioning regimens consisted of fludarabine combined with 2 Gy of total body irradiation (n=71), fludarabine with busulfan (n=10), or other regimens (n=16). A time-dependent analysis was done, in which allogeneic HSCT was compared with other types of post-remission therapy. The primary endpoint of the study was 5-year overall survival for all treatment groups, analysed by a time-dependent analysis. FINDINGS 5-year overall survival was 35% (95% CI 25-44) for patients who received an allogeneic HSCT, 21% (17-26) for those who received no additional post-remission therapy, and 26% (19-33) for patients who received either additional chemotherapy or autologous HSCT. Overall survival at 5 years was strongly affected by the European LeukemiaNET acute myeloid leukaemia risk score, with patients in the favourable risk group (n=65) having better 5-year overall survival (56% [95% CI 43-67]) than those with intermediate-risk (n=131; 23% [19-27]) or adverse-risk (n=444; 13% [8-20]) acute myeloid leukaemia. Multivariable analysis with allogeneic HSCT as a time-dependent variable showed that allogeneic HSCT was associated with better 5-year overall survival (HR 0·71 [95% CI 0·53-0·95], p=0·017) compared with non-allogeneic HSCT post-remission therapies or no post-remission therapy, especially in patients with intermediate-risk (0·82 [0·58-1·15]) or adverse-risk (0.39 [0·21-0·73]) acute myeloid leukaemia. INTERPRETATION Collectively, the results from these four trials suggest that allogeneic HSCT might be the preferred treatment approach in patients 60 years of age and older with intermediate-risk and adverse-risk acute myeloid leukaemia in first complete remission, but the comparative value should ideally be shown in a prospective randomised study. FUNDING None.