Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Fluoreszenzdiagnostik bei Patienten mit nicht muskelinvasivem Harnblasenkarzinom: Ergebnisse einer Metaanalyse [Fluorescence diagnosis in patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer: results of a metaanalysis]

Purpose: Heterogeneous results of single studies with photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) in bladder cancer have been reported. A metaanalysis of prospective studies has now been performed. Material and Methods: The effect of PDD in addition to WLC on a) the diagnosis and b) the therapeutic outcome of primary or recurrent non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) investigated by cystoscopy or transurethral resection was analysed. An electronic database search was performed. Trials were included if they prospectively compared WLC with PDD in bladder cancer. Primary endpoints were additional detection rate, residual tumour at second resection and recurrence-free survival. Results: Significantly more tumour-positive patients were detected with PDD in all patients with non-muscle invasive tumours (= 20%) [95% confidence interval (CI): 8 to 35%] and in CIS patients (= 39%) (CI: 23 to 57%). Residual tumour was significantly less often found after PDD (odds ratio 0.28, CI: 0.15 to 0.52, p<0.0001). Recurrence-free survival was significantly higher at 12 and 24months in the PDD groups than in WLC only groups. Conclusions: More bladder tumour-positive patients are detected by PDD. Best results were found in CIS patients. Diagnosis with PDD results in a more complete resection and a longer recurrence-free survival.

Diagnostic Performances of 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography in Large Vessels Vasculitis: Meta-analysis

Toperform a meta-analysis of FDG-PET performances in the diagnosis of largevessels vasculitis (Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) associated or not withPolymyalgia Rheumatica(PMR), Takayasu). Materials and methods : The MEDLINE,Cochrane Library, Embase were searched for relevant original articlesdescribing FDG-PET for vasculitis assessment, using MesH terms ("GiantCell Arteritis or Vasculitis" AND "PET"). Criteria for inclusionwere:(1)FDG-PET for diagnosis of vasculitis(2)American College of Rheumatologycriteria as reference standard(3)control group. After data extraction, analyseswere performed using a random-effects model. Results : Of 184 citations(database search and references screening),70 articles were reviewed of which12 eligible studies were extracted (sensitivity range from 32% to 97%). 7studies fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Owing to overlapping population, 1study was excluded. Statistical heterogeneity justified the random-effectsmodel. Pooled 6 studies analysis(116 vasculitis,224 controls) showed a 81%sensitivity (95%CI:70-89%);a 89% specificity (95%CI:77-95%);a 85%PPV(95%CI:63-95%); a 90% NPV(95%CI:79-95%);a 7.1 positive LR(95%CI:3.4-14.9); a0.2 negative LR(95%CI:0.14-0.35) and 90.1 DOR(95%CI: 18.6-437). Conclusion :FDG-PET has good diagnostic performances in the detection of large vesselsvasculitis. Its promising role could be extended to follow up patients undertreatment, but further studies are needed to confirm this possibility.

Kuljetuslajin yhteys kannattavuuteen etelä- ja itäsuomalaisissa kuljetusyrityksissä

Tämä Pro-Gradu –tutkielma tarkastelee etelä- ja itäsuomalaisia kuljetusyrityksiä kannattavuuden, vakavaraisuuden ja maksuvalmiuden näkökulmasta kuljetuslajeittain. Tutkielman pyrkimyksenä on valottaa Etelä- ja Itä-Suomen läänien kilpailuympäristöä numeeristen tunnuslukujen ja tilinpäätöserien perusteella. Päätavoitteena on osoittaa, onko kuljetuslajien välillä kannattavuuseroja. Tutkielma koostuu teoriaosasta sekä empiirisestä osasta, jonka aineisto koostuu etelä- ja itäsuomalaisten kuljetusyritysten tilinpäätöstiedoista ja tunnusluvuista. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto on kerätty haulla Amadeus–tietokannasta ja postikyselynä haun tuottamilta yrityksiltä. Aineistoa on analysoitu kvantitatiivisilla menetelmillä SPSS–ohjelmistolla. Tuloksista selviää, että kuljetuslajilla on yhteys kannattavuuteen ROCE–tunnusluvulla mitattuna. Kannattavuuden osa-alueita, kuten tuottoja, kustannuksia ja sidottua pääomaa analysoitiin erikseen, mutta kannattavuuseroille ei silti löydetty selitystä.

Possible new ways in the pharmacological treatment of bipolar disorder and comorbid alcoholism.

Possible new ways in the pharmacological treatment of bipolar disorder and comorbid alcoholism. Azorin JM, Bowden CL, Garay RP, Perugi G, Vieta E, Young AH. Source Department of Psychiatry, CHU Sainte Marguerite, Marseilles, France. Abstract About half of all bipolar patients have an alcohol abuse problem at some point of their lifetime. However, only one randomized, controlled trial of pharmacotherapy (valproate) in this patient population was published as of 2006. Therefore, we reviewed clinical trials in this indication of the last four years (using mood stabilizers, atypical antipsychotics, and other drugs). Priority was given to randomized trials, comparing drugs with placebo or active comparator. Published studies were found through systematic database search (PubMed, Scirus, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Science Direct). In these last four years, the only randomized, clinically relevant study in bipolar patients with comorbid alcoholism is that of Brown and colleagues (2008) showing that quetiapine therapy decreased depressive symptoms in the early weeks of use, without modifying alcohol use. Several other open-label trials have been generally positive and support the efficacy and tolerability of agents from different classes in this patient population. Valproate efficacy to reduce excessive alcohol consumption in bipolar patients was confirmed and new controlled studies revealed its therapeutic benefit to prevent relapse in newly abstinent alcoholics and to improve alcohol hallucinosis. Topiramate deserves to be investigated in bipolar patients with comorbid alcoholism since this compound effectively improves physical health and quality of life of alcohol-dependent individuals. In conclusion, randomized, controlled research is still needed to provide guidelines for possible use of valproate and other agents in patients with a dual diagnosis of bipolar disorder and substance abuse or dependence.

Comparison of the effectiveness of initial combined antiretroviral therapy with nelfinavir or efavirenz at a university-based outpatient service in Brazil

Since there are some concerns about the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy in developing countries, we compared the initial combination antiretroviral therapy with zidovudine and lamivudine plus either nelfinavir or efavirenz at a university-based outpatient service in Brazil. This was a retrospective comparative cohort study carried out in a tertiary level hospital. A total of 194 patients receiving either nelfinavir or efavirenz were identified through our electronic database search, but only 126 patients met the inclusion criteria. Patients were included if they were older than 18 years old, naive for antiretroviral therapy, and had at least 1 follow-up visit after starting the antiretroviral regimen. Fifty-one of the included patients were receiving a nelfinavir-based regimen and 75 an efavirenz-based regimen as outpatients. Antiretroviral therapy was prescribed to all patients according to current guidelines. By intention-to-treat (missing/switch = failure), after a 12-month period, 65% of the patients in the efavirenz group reached a viral load <400 copies/mL compared to 41% of the patients in the nelfinavir group (P = 0.01). The mean CD4 cell count increase after a 12-month period was also greater in the efavirenz group (195 x 10(6) cells/L) than in the nelfinavir group (119 x 10(6) cells/L; P = 0.002). The efavirenz-based regimen was superior compared to the nelfinavir-based regimen. The low response rate in the nelfinavir group might be partially explained by the difficulty of using a regimen requiring a higher patient compliance (12 vs 3 pills a day) in a developing country.

Prognostic effect of high-flux hemodialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease

We investigated the prognostic effects of high-flux hemodialysis (HFHD) and low-flux hemodialysis (LFHD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both an electronic and a manual search were performed based on our rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria to retrieve high-quality, relevant clinical studies from various scientific literature databases. Comprehensive meta-analysis 2.0 (CMA 2.0) was used for the quantitative analysis. We initially retrieved 227 studies from the database search. Following a multi-step screening process, eight high-quality studies were selected for our meta-analysis. These eight studies included 4967 patients with CKD (2416 patients in the HFHD group, 2551 patients in the LFHD group). The results of our meta-analysis showed that the all-cause death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.704, 95%CI=0.533-0.929, P=0.013). Additionally, the cardiovascular death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.731, 95%CI=0.616-0.866, P<0.001). The results of this meta-analysis clearly showed that HFHD decreases all-cause death and cardiovascular death rates in patients with CKD and that HFHD can therefore be implemented as one of the first therapy choices for CKD.

Representations of cultural encounters in the global business press – The importance of cross-cultural competence

This qualitative study has started from the interest to examine how the reality of crosscultural encounters is presented in the global business press. The research paper emphasizes different ways to classify culture and cross-cultural competency, both from the point of view of individuals and organizations. The analysis consists of public discourses, where cross-cultural realities are created through different persons, stories and contexts For data collection, a comprehensive database search was performed and 10 articles from the widely known worldwide business magazine The Financial Times were chosen as the data for the study paper. For the functions of addressing the research study questions, Thematic Content Analysis (TCA) and also Discourse Analysis (DA) are utilized, added with the continuous comparison method of grounded theory in the formation of the data.The academic references consist of literary works and articles presenting relevant concepts, creating a cross-cultural framework, and it is designed to assist the reader in the navigation through the topics of culture and cross-cultural competency. The repertoires were formed from the data and following, the first repertoire is contrast difference between home and target culture that the individual was able to discern. As a consequence of the first repertoire, the companies then offer cultural training to their employees to prepare them to situations of increasing levels of cultural variation. The third repertoire is increased awareness of other cultures, which is conveyed as a result of cultural training and contextual work experience. The fourth repertoire is globalization as an international business environment, where the people in the articles perform their job functions. It is stated in the conclusions that the representations emphasize Western values and personal traits in leadership.

Condiciones de trabajo saludables. Análisis de los estudios realizados en Colombia y Europa en el periodo 2002-2012

INTRODUCCIÓN. El presente trabajo explora las condiciones de trabajo saludables más frecuentemente estudiadas en Colombia y Europa en el período 2002 a 2012. OBJETIVO. Este trabajo busca definir los avances en investigación de las condiciones de trabajo saludables que presentaron Colombia y Europa en el período 2002 a 2012, a través de: el análisis del concepto de salud en el trabajo desde diferentes enfoques e investigaciones; el análisis los modelos sobre condiciones saludables en el trabajo; así como la revisión, consolidación y análisis documental alrededor del estado del arte de la investigación sobre los aspectos relacionados con las condiciones psicosociales del trabajo. METODO. Investigación documental, a través de la búsqueda en base de datos y posterior consolidación, sistematización y análisis de la literatura científica que evaluaban aspectos relacionados con las condiciones de trabajo saludable, en Colombia y Europa, durante el período 2002-2012. RESULTADOS. En la revisión documental se encontró que la implementación de ambientes saludables a nivel organizacional es un esfuerzo y compromiso de los empresarios, los trabajadores y la sociedad para mejorar el bienestar de las personas en el trabajo que representa una responsabilidad social empresarial, así como una ventaja competitiva sostenible en el sector económico. De igual manera, se resalta el avance que presenta Europa y España en el desarrollo de estudios nacionales de las condiciones detrabajo saludables frente a Colombia que aún no ha tenido investigaciones de representatividad nacional.

The VERA information environment

We present three components of a virtual research environment developed for the ongoing Roman excavation at Silchester. These components — Recycle Bridge, XDB cross-database search, and Arch3D — provide additional services around the existing core of the system, run on the Integrated Archaeological Database (IADB). They provide, respectively, embedding of legacy applications into portals, cross-database searching, and 3D visualisation of stratigraphic information.

What people study when they study Twitter: classifying Twitter related academic papers

PURPOSE: Since its introduction in 2006, messages posted to the microblogging system Twitter have provided a rich dataset for researchers, leading to the publication of over a thousand academic papers. This paper aims to identify this published work and to classify it in order to understand Twitter based research. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Firstly the papers on Twitter were identified. Secondly, following a review of the literature, a classification of the dimensions of microblogging research was established. Thirdly, papers were qualitatively classified using open coded content analysis, based on the paper’s title and abstract, in order to analyze method, subject, and approach. FINDINGS: The majority of published work relating to Twitter concentrates on aspects of the messages sent and details of the users. A variety of methodological approaches are used across a range of identified domains. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: This work reviewed the abstracts of all papers available via database search on the term “Twitter” and this has two major implications: 1) the full papers are not considered and so works may be misclassified if their abstract is not clear, 2) publications not indexed by the databases, such as book chapters, are not included. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To date there has not been an overarching study to look at the methods and purpose of those using Twitter as a research subject. Our major contribution is to scope out papers published on Twitter until the close of 2011. The classification derived here will provide a framework within which researchers studying Twitter related topics will be able to position and ground their work

Prevalence of dementia in Latin America: a collaborative study of population-based cohorts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The GHEP-EMPOP collaboration on mtDNA population data-A new resource for forensic casework

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) population data for forensic purposes are still scarce for some populations, which may limit the evaluation of forensic evidence especially when the rarity of a haplotype needs to be determined in a database search. In order to improve the collection of mtDNA lineages from the Iberian and South American subcontinents, we here report the results of a collaborative study involving nine laboratories from the Spanish and Portuguese Speaking Working Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) and EMPOP. The individual laboratories contributed population data that were generated throughout the past 10 years, but in the majority of cases have not been made available to the scientific community. A total of 1019 haplotypes from Iberia (Basque Country, 2 general Spanish populations, 2 North and 1 Central Portugal populations), and Latin America (3 populations from São Paulo) were collected, reviewed and harmonized according to defined EMPOP criteria. The majority of data ambiguities that were found during the reviewing process (41 in total) were transcription errors confirming that the documentation process is still the most error-prone stage in reporting mtDNA population data, especially when performed manually. This GHEP-EMPOP collaboration has significantly improved the quality of the individual mtDNA datasets and adds mtDNA population data as valuable resource to the EMPOP database (www.empop.org). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.