Qualitative and quantitative formal model-based safety analysis : push the safety button

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2011

System-analytic safety evaluation of the hydrogen cycle for energetic utilization

Hydrogen, energy, safety, risk, production, transport, storage, filling station, fuelcell

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Data-based approach for developing a physical activity frequency questionnaire.

Measurement of total energy expenditure may be crucial to an understanding of the relation between physical activity and disease and in order to frame public health intervention. To devise a self-administered physical activity frequency questionnaire (PAFQ), the following data-based approach was used. A 24-hour recall was administered to a random sample of 919 adult residents of Geneva, Switzerland. The data obtained were used to establish the list of activities (and their median duration) that contributed to 95% of the energy expended, separately for men and women. Activities that were trivial for the whole sample but that contributed to > or = 10% of an individual's energy expenditure were also selected. The final PAFQ lists 70 activities or group of activities with their typical duration. About 20 minutes are required for respondents to indicate the number of days and the number of hours per day that they performed each activity. The PAFQ method was validated against a heart rate monitor, a more objective method. The total energy estimated by the PAFQ in 41 volunteers correlated well (r = 0.76) with estimates using a heart rate monitor. The authors conclude that the design of their self-administered physical activity frequency questionnaire based on data from 24-hour recall appeared to accurately estimate energy expenditure.

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature.

The main goal of CleanEx is to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names. A second objective is to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and cross-data set comparisons. A consistent and up-to-date gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of human genes and genes from model organisms. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing cross-references to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resource, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The web-based query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria. CleanEx is accessible at: http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature and linked to an improved annotation system

Résumé: L'automatisation du séquençage et de l'annotation des génomes, ainsi que l'application à large échelle de méthodes de mesure de l'expression génique, génèrent une quantité phénoménale de données pour des organismes modèles tels que l'homme ou la souris. Dans ce déluge de données, il devient très difficile d'obtenir des informations spécifiques à un organisme ou à un gène, et une telle recherche aboutit fréquemment à des réponses fragmentées, voir incomplètes. La création d'une base de données capable de gérer et d'intégrer aussi bien les données génomiques que les données transcriptomiques peut grandement améliorer la vitesse de recherche ainsi que la qualité des résultats obtenus, en permettant une comparaison directe de mesures d'expression des gènes provenant d'expériences réalisées grâce à des techniques différentes. L'objectif principal de ce projet, appelé CleanEx, est de fournir un accès direct aux données d'expression publiques par le biais de noms de gènes officiels, et de représenter des données d'expression produites selon des protocoles différents de manière à faciliter une analyse générale et une comparaison entre plusieurs jeux de données. Une mise à jour cohérente et régulière de la nomenclature des gènes est assurée en associant chaque expérience d'expression de gène à un identificateur permanent de la séquence-cible, donnant une description physique de la population d'ARN visée par l'expérience. Ces identificateurs sont ensuite associés à intervalles réguliers aux catalogues, en constante évolution, des gènes d'organismes modèles. Cette procédure automatique de traçage se fonde en partie sur des ressources externes d'information génomique, telles que UniGene et RefSeq. La partie centrale de CleanEx consiste en un index de gènes établi de manière hebdomadaire et qui contient les liens à toutes les données publiques d'expression déjà incorporées au système. En outre, la base de données des séquences-cible fournit un lien sur le gène correspondant ainsi qu'un contrôle de qualité de ce lien pour différents types de ressources expérimentales, telles que des clones ou des sondes Affymetrix. Le système de recherche en ligne de CleanEx offre un accès aux entrées individuelles ainsi qu'à des outils d'analyse croisée de jeux de donnnées. Ces outils se sont avérés très efficaces dans le cadre de la comparaison de l'expression de gènes, ainsi que, dans une certaine mesure, dans la détection d'une variation de cette expression liée au phénomène d'épissage alternatif. Les fichiers et les outils de CleanEx sont accessibles en ligne (http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/). Abstract: The automatic genome sequencing and annotation, as well as the large-scale gene expression measurements methods, generate a massive amount of data for model organisms. Searching for genespecific or organism-specific information througout all the different databases has become a very difficult task, and often results in fragmented and unrelated answers. The generation of a database which will federate and integrate genomic and transcriptomic data together will greatly improve the search speed as well as the quality of the results by allowing a direct comparison of expression results obtained by different techniques. The main goal of this project, called the CleanEx database, is thus to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names and to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and crossdataset comparisons. A consistent and uptodate gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single gene expression experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of genes from model organisms, such as human and mouse. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing crossreferences to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resources, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The Affymetrix mapping files are accessible as text files, for further use in external applications, and as individual entries, via the webbased interfaces . The CleanEx webbased query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria, as well as crossdataset analysis tools, and crosschip gene comparison. These tools have proven to be very efficient in expression data comparison and even, to a certain extent, in detection of differentially expressed splice variants. The CleanEx flat files and tools are available online at: http://www.cleanex.isbsib. ch/.

A safety evaluation of genetically modified feedstuffs for livestock production; the fate of transgenic DNA and proteins

dTwo genetic constructs used to confer improved agronomic characteristics, namely herbicide tolerance (HT) in maize and soyabean and insect resistance (Bt) in maize, are considered in respect of feeding to farm livestock, animal performance and the nutritional value and safety of animal products. A review of nucleic acid (DNA) and protein digestion in farm livestock concludes that the frequency of intact transgenic DNA and proteins of GM and non-GM crops being absorbed is minimal/non existent, although there is some evidence of the presence of short fragments of rubisco DNA of non-GM soya in animal tissues. It has been established that feed processing (especially heat) prior to feeding causes significant disruption of plant DNA. Studies with ruminant and non-ruminant farm livestock offered GM feeds demonstrated that animal performance and product composition are unaffected and that there is no evidence of transgenic DNA or proteins of current GM in the products of animals consuming such feeds. On this evidence, current HT and Bt constructs represent no threat to the health of animals, or humans consuming the products of such animals. However as new GM constructs become available it will be necessary to subject these to rigorous evaluation.

Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model

The proportional odds model provides a powerful tool for analysing ordered categorical data and setting sample size, although for many clinical trials its validity is questionable. The purpose of this paper is to present a new class of constrained odds models which includes the proportional odds model. The efficient score and Fisher's information are derived from the profile likelihood for the constrained odds model. These results are new even for the special case of proportional odds where the resulting statistics define the Mann-Whitney test. A strategy is described involving selecting one of these models in advance, requiring assumptions as strong as those underlying proportional odds, but allowing a choice of such models. The accuracy of the new procedure and its power are evaluated.

Safety evaluation of oligofructose: 13 Week rat study and in vitro mutagenicity

Oligofructose (OF), comprised of fructose oligomers with a terminal glucose unit, is a family Of oligosaccharides derived from the hydrolysis of inulin. Consumption of OF in animals and humans increases colonic bifidobacteria levels. The present study evaluates the safety of OF in both a 13 week rat feeding Study and Using in Vitro mutagenicity tests. Fecal bifidobacteria levels were also determined by in situ hybridization to assess a biological function of OF. Rats received either a control diet OF diets containing one of four doses of OF. Total, HDL, and LDL-cholesterol levels were significantly lower at several time points during the study in groups receiving OF compared to controls with the largest effects Occurring in the high dose male animals. Weight gain in the male high dose group was significantly lower at early time points compared to controls but]lot Significantly different at the end of study. As expected, cecal weights increased in a dose-related manner and fecal bifidobacteria levels also demonstrated a dose-related increase. There were no consistent differences in gross pathology or histopathology related to dietary OF. OF did not induce a positive response in the Ames test or chromosomal aberration test with CHO cells. These results demonstrate no adverse effects of OF. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.