Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Channel-aware routing in MANETs with route handoff

In wireless mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), packet transmission is impaired by radio link fluctuations. This paper proposes a novel channel adaptive routing protocol which extends the Ad-hoc On-Demand Multipath Distance Vector routing protocol (AOMDV) to accommodate channel fading. Specifically, the proposed Channel Aware AOMDV (CA-AOMDV) uses the channel average non-fading duration as a routing metric to select stable links for path discovery, and applies a preemptive handoff strategy to maintain reliable connections by exploiting channel state information. Using the same information, paths can be reused when they become available again, rather than being discarded. We provide new theoretical results for the downtime and lifetime of a live-die-live multiple path system, as well as detailed theoretical expressions for common network performance measures, providing useful insights into the differences in performance between CA-AOMDV and AOMDV. Simulation and theoretical results show that CA-AOMDV has greatly improved network performance over AOMDV.

A solvothermal route to crystalline lithium niobate

A solvothermal route for the preparation of crystalline state lithium niobate using Li2 CO3 and Nb2 O5 is developed. Oxalic acid is employed as solvent, which coordinates with niobium oxide to stimulate the main reaction. Scanning electron microscopy images show that the as-prepared sample displays a cubic morphology. X-ray diffraction and IR spectrum of the as-prepared sample indicate that the sample is well crystalline.

Facile synthesis of Lithium Niobate squares by a combustion route

A combustion synthesis of lithium niobate (LN) squares from activated niobium oxide (Nb2 O5.nH2O) and Li2CO3 was studied to understand all the chemical reactions involved, and the nucleation and square-growth mechanisms. It was found that first the lithium ions react with the fuel (urea), then niobium ions of Nb2 O5.nH2O begin a continuous reaction with the fuel to form metal-organic complexes. LN nuclei are formed by the solid-state reaction of Li- and Nb-organic complexes at 430 degrees celcius. Lithium niobate squares are obtained in the crystallization stasge at 700 degrees celcius, which go on the grow into larger squares at 850 degrees celcius because of the agglomeration effect.

Amine-sssisted route to fabricate LiNbO3 particles with a tunable shape

An ethylenediamine-assisted route has been designed for one-step synthesis of lithium niobate particles with a novel rodlike structure in an aqueous solution system. The morphological evolution for these lithium niobate rods was monitored via SEM: The raw materials form large lozenges first. These lozenges are a metastable intermediate of this reaction, and they subsequently crack into small rods after sufficiently long time. These small rods recrystallize and finally grow into individual lithium niobate rods. Interestingly, shape-controlled fabrication of lithium niobate powders was achieved through using different amine ligands. For instance, the ethylenediamine or ethanolamine ligan can induce the formation of rods, while n-butylamine prefers to construct hollow spheres. These as-obtained lithium niobate rods and hollow spheres may exhibit enhanced performance in an optical application field due to their distinctive structures. This effective ligand-tuned-morphology route can provide a new strategy to facilely achieve the shape-controlled synthesis of other niobates.

Diels-Alder reactions as an efficient route to high purity cyclic polymers

A simple and efficient route for the synthesis of cyclic polymer systems is presented. Linear furan protected α-maleimide-ω-cyclopentadienyl functionalized precursors (poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(tert-butyl acrylate)) were synthesized via atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and subsequent substitution of the bromine end-group with cyclopentadiene. Upon heating at high dilution, deprotection of the dieneophile occurs followed by an intramolecular Diels–Alder reaction yielding a high purity cyclic product.

Towards condition-invariant sequence-based route recognition

In this paper we present a novel algorithm for localization during navigation that performs matching over local image sequences. Instead of calculating the single location most likely to correspond to a current visual scene, the approach finds candidate matching locations within every section (subroute) of all learned routes. Through this approach, we reduce the demands upon the image processing front-end, requiring it to only be able to correctly pick the best matching image from within a short local image sequence, rather than globally. We applied this algorithm to a challenging downhill mountainbiking visual dataset where there was significant perceptual or environment change between repeated traverses of the environment, and compared performance to applying the feature-based algorithm FAB-MAP. The results demonstrate the potential for localization using visual sequences, even when there are no visual features that can be reliably detected.

ACE research vignette 008 : acquisitions - a route to new growth opportunities?

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.

Visual route recognition with a handful of bits

In this paper we use a sequence-based visual localization algorithm to reveal surprising answers to the question, how much visual information is actually needed to conduct effective navigation? The algorithm actively searches for the best local image matches within a sliding window of short route segments or 'sub-routes', and matches sub-routes by searching for coherent sequences of local image matches. In contract to many existing techniques, the technique requires no pre-training or camera parameter calibration. We compare the algorithm's performance to the state-of-the-art FAB-MAP 2.0 algorithm on a 70 km benchmark dataset. Performance matches or exceeds the state of the art feature-based localization technique using images as small as 4 pixels, fields of view reduced by a factor of 250, and pixel bit depths reduced to 2 bits. We present further results demonstrating the system localizing in an office environment with near 100% precision using two 7 bit Lego light sensors, as well as using 16 and 32 pixel images from a motorbike race and a mountain rally car stage. By demonstrating how little image information is required to achieve localization along a route, we hope to stimulate future 'low fidelity' approaches to visual navigation that complement probabilistic feature-based techniques.

SeqSLAM : visual route-based navigation for sunny summer days and stormy winter nights

Learning and then recognizing a route, whether travelled during the day or at night, in clear or inclement weather, and in summer or winter is a challenging task for state of the art algorithms in computer vision and robotics. In this paper, we present a new approach to visual navigation under changing conditions dubbed SeqSLAM. Instead of calculating the single location most likely given a current image, our approach calculates the best candidate matching location within every local navigation sequence. Localization is then achieved by recognizing coherent sequences of these “local best matches”. This approach removes the need for global matching performance by the vision front-end - instead it must only pick the best match within any short sequence of images. The approach is applicable over environment changes that render traditional feature-based techniques ineffective. Using two car-mounted camera datasets we demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm and compare it to one of the most successful feature-based SLAM algorithms, FAB-MAP. The perceptual change in the datasets is extreme; repeated traverses through environments during the day and then in the middle of the night, at times separated by months or years and in opposite seasons, and in clear weather and extremely heavy rain. While the feature-based method fails, the sequence-based algorithm is able to match trajectory segments at 100% precision with recall rates of up to 60%.

Using advanced traits of passengers to facilitate route-choice decision-making

Research interest in pedestrian behaviour spans the retail industry, emergency services, urban planners and other agencies. Most models to simulate and model pedestrian movement can be distinguished on the basis of geographical scale, from the micro-scale movement of obstacle avoidance, through the meso-scale of individuals planning multi-stop shopping trips, up to the macro-scale of overall flow of masses of people between places. In this paper, route-choice decision-making model is devised for modelling passengers flow in airport terminal. A set of devised advanced traits of passengers is firstly proposed. Advanced traits take into account a passenger’s cognitive preferences and demonstrate underlying motivations of route-choice decisions. Although the activities of passengers are normally regarded as stochastic and sometimes unpredictable, real scenarios of passenger flows are basically feasible to be compared with virtual simulations in terms of tactical route-choice decision-making. Passengers in the model are as intelligent agents who possess a bunch of initial basic traits and are categorized into five distinguish groups in terms of routing preferences. Route choices are consecutively determined by inferring current advanced traits according to the utility matrix.