Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Diurnal and seasonal cycles of cloud occurrences, types and radiative impact over West Africa

This study focuses on the occurrence and type of clouds observed in West Africa, a subject which has neither been much documented nor quantified. It takes advantage of data collected above Niamey in 2006 with the ARM mobile facility. A survey of cloud characteristics inferred from ground measurements is presented with a focus on their seasonal evolution and diurnal cycle. Four types of clouds are distinguished: high-level clouds, deep convective clouds, shallow convective clouds and mid-level clouds. A frequent occurrence of the latter clouds located at the top of the Saharan Air Layer is highlighted. High-level clouds are ubiquitous throughout the period whereas shallow convective clouds are mainly noticeable during the core of the monsoon. The diurnal cycle of each cloud category and its seasonal evolution is investigated. CloudSat and CALIPSO data are used in order to demonstrate that these four cloud types (in addition to stratocumulus clouds over the ocean) are not a particularity of the Niamey region and that mid-level clouds are present over the Sahara during most of the Monsoon season. Moreover, using complementary data sets, the radiative impact of each type of clouds at the surface level has been quantified in the shortwave and longwave domain. Mid-level clouds and anvil clouds have the largest impact respectively in longwave (about 15 W m−2) and the shortwave (about 150 W m−2). Furthermore, mid-level clouds exert a strong radiative forcing in Spring at a time when the other cloud types are less numerous.

Effects of repeated cycles of acid challenge and growth on the phenotype and virulence of Salmonella enterica

Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate how stresses like low pH, which may be encountered in farms or food preparation premises, shape populations of Salmonella enterica by the selection of stress-resistant variants. Methods and Results: Stationary-phase cultures of S. enterica serovar Enteritidis and serovar Typhimurium (one strain of each) were exposed to pH 2Æ5 for up to 4 h, followed by growth at pH 7 for 48 h. This process was repeated 15 times in two separate experiments, which increased the acid resistance of the three out of four populations we obtained, by three- to fourfold. Sustainable variants derived from the populations showed changes in colony morphology, expression of SEF17 fimbriae, growth, increased heat resistance and reduced virulence. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that low pH environments can select for populations of S. enterica with persistent phenotypic changes such as increased acid resistance and occasionally increased SEF17 expression and lower virulence. Significance and Impact of the Study: There is a common belief that increased acid resistance coincides with increased virulence. This study demonstrates for the first time that increased acid resistance often impairs virulence and affects the general phenotype of S. enterica.

Twenty-three cycles of changing open solar magnetic flux

This paper presents a comparison of various estimates of the open solar flux, deduced from measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field, from the aa geomagnetic index and from photospheric magnetic field observations. The first two of these estimates are made using the Ulysses discovery that the radial heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude, the third makes use of the potential-field source surface method to map the total flux through the photosphere to the open flux at the top of the corona. The uncertainties associated with using the Ulysses result are 5%, but the effects of the assumptions of the potential field source surface method are harder to evaluate. Nevertheless, the three methods give similar results for the last three solar cycles when the data sets overlap. In 11-year running means, all three methods reveal that 1987 marked a significant peak in the long-term variation of the open solar flux. This peak is close to the solar minimum between sunspot cycles 21 and 22, and consequently the mean open flux (averaged from minimum to minimum) is similar for these two cycles. However, this similarity between cycles 21 and 22 in no way implies that the open flux is constant. The long-term variation shows that these cycles are fundamentally different in that the average open flux was rising during cycle 21 (from consistently lower values in cycle 20 and toward the peak in 1987) but was falling during cycle 22 (toward consistently lower values in cycle 23). The estimates from the geomagnetic aa index are unique as they extend from 1842 onwards (using the Helsinki extension). This variation gives strong anticorrelations, with very high statistical significance levels, with cosmic ray fluxes and with the abundances of the cosmogenic isotopes that they produce. Thus observations of photospheric magnetic fields, of cosmic ray fluxes, and of cosmogenic isotope abundances all support the long-term drifts in open solar flux reported by Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b].

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Severity of banana leaf spot in an intercropping system in two cycles of banana Prata Ana

Prata Ana is the most planted banana cultivar in northern Minas Gerais, Brazil. It is however susceptible to several pathogens. This study was carried out to evaluate the disease severity of banana leaf spot in the Prata Ana cv. in the first and second cycle under six different planting systems. The randomized block experimental design was used with six treatments and four replications. lit an evaluation of the severity of banana leaf spot, no disease symptoms were found on Thap Maeo and Caipira. The evolution curve of the disease indicated seasonal effects in the first and second cycles. The severity, of banana leaf spot was highest soon after the regional rainy period from November to March. A comparison of the means of the evaluations indicated a reduction in disease severity from the first to the second cycle.

LIMIT CYCLES of DISCONTINUOUS PIECEWISE LINEAR DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEMS

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Discussion on the limit cycles of the Lev Ginzburg equation by M. Bellamy and R.E. Mickens, Journal of Sound and Vibration 308 (2007) 337-342

The authors M. Bellamy and R.E. Mickens in the article "Hopf bifurcation analysis of the Lev Ginzburg equation" published in Journal of Sound and Vibration 308 (2007) 337-342, claimed that this differential equation in the plane can exhibit a limit cycle. Here we prove that the Lev Ginzburg differential equation has no limit cycles. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the limit cycles of a class of piecewise linear differential systems in R-4 with two zones

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cycles of economic growth and structural change in Venezuela 1950- 1974

Paper presented at the LASA Association, 14-16 November 1975, San Francisco, California

Limit cycles of cubic polynomial differential systems with rational first integrals of degree 2

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Short-term cycles of feed deprivation and refeeding promote full compensatory growth in the Amazon fish matrinxa (Brycon amazonicus)

Developing nutritional strategies that can reduce production costs for the fish industry without affecting productive performance is paramount to make the activity sustainable. We investigated if short-term cycles of feed deprivation and refeeding elicit compensatory growth in matrinxa (Brycon amazonicus) juveniles, using three feeding protocols for 60 days (Phase 1): two levels of deprivation (feed deprivation for two days and refeeding for three - D2R3, or four days - D2R4) and a control level (daily feeding). Following, all fish groups were fed daily at satiation for 15 days (Phase 2). At Phase 1, matrinxa achieved full compensatory growth in both deprivation levels by increasing feed intake and feed efficiency. Overall, deprived fish consumed 40% (D2R3) and 36% (D2R4) less feed than fish fed daily. In Phase 2, growth was similar for all fish. Feed intake increased in both deprived fish, but feed efficiency did not differ among groups and was lower than in Phase 1, indicating a reduced efficiency in feed utilization when food was freely available. We propose that intermittent cycles of feeding represent an effective means to reduce production costs. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physiological Response to Dolops carvalhoi (Crustacea: Branchiura) Infection by Pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus, Subjected to Short Cycles of Food Restriction and Refeeding

Feeding strategies that reduce feed and promote compensatory growth could be an interesting tool to reduce costs in the fish production. However, fish health must be monitored to evaluate if their physiological response to adverse conditions, such as parasite infection, does not become compromised. A 12-wk growth trial was conducted to determine the physiological responses of pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus, that were subjected to different fasting/refeeding cycles and infected with the Dolops carvalhoi. The schemes were: (i) control group fish (FD), (ii) food-restricted and controlled refeeding group (FR/Rc), and (iii) food-restricted and refeeding to satiation group (FR/Rs). After 84 d, the fish were exposed to D. carvalhoi for 30 h. The fish subjected to food restriction did not exhibit compensatory growth. Cortisol levels decreased in all groups within 30 h after infection. Glucose levels increased 6 h after the D. carvalhoi in the FR/Rs and 30 h after infection in the FD. In all of the fish groups, the hematocrit values were reduced after infection, and it was associated with a reduction in the mean corpuscular volume and erythrocytes. At 30 h after infection, the number of erythroblasts increased. The use of the feeding schemes does not indicate a failure of the pacu physiological responses.