Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real-time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Subjective and Objective Indicators of Recovery in Severe Mental Illness: a Cross-Sectional Study

Background: This study aimed to determine whether subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment are associated with self-report of more objective indicators such as level of participation in the community and income from employment. A secondary aim was to investigate the extent to which diagnosis or other consumer characteristics mediated any relationship between these variables. Methods: The Community Integration Measure, the Empowerment Scale, the Recovery Assessment Scale, and the Camberwell Assessment of Needs Short Appraisal Schedule were administered to a convenience sample of 161 consumers with severe mental illness. Results: The majority of participants had a primary diagnosis of schizophreniform, anxiety/depression or bipolar affective disorder. The Empowerment Scale was quite strongly correlated with the Recovery Assessment Scale and the Community Integration Measure. Participants with a diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder had signifi cantly higher recovery and empowerment scores than participants with schizophrenia or depression. Both empowerment and recovery scores were significantly higher for people engaged in paid employment than for those receiving social security benefits. Conclusions: The measurement of subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment has validity in evaluation of global recovery for people with severe mental illness. A diagnosis of bipolar disorder is associated with higher scores on subjective and objective indicators of recovery.

Redefining and leading the academic discipline in Australian universities

Disciplines have emerged as an alternative administrative structure to departments or schools in Australian universities. We presently investigate the pattern of discipline use and by way of case study examine a role for distributed leadership in discipline management. Over forty per cent of Australian universities currently employ disciplines, especially within faculties of sciences, engineering and medicine. No trend is observed according to institutional age, state, or historical origins. Effective planning, retention of corporate knowledge and good communication are important during the transition period. Moreover, it is vital that professional staff continue to work closely alongside academics as extended members of the discipline. Distributed leadership encourages this interaction. The duties of a discipline leader can be similar to those faced by a head of department. Universities should therefore establish clear policies, position descriptions and appropriate remuneration packages in order to recruit, train and retain staff within this emerging academic management role.

Survival tucker : improved diet and health indicators in an Aboriginal community

The poor nutritional status of Aboriginal Australians is a serious and complex public health concern. We describe an unusually successful health and nutrition project initiated by the people of Minjilang, which was developed, implemented and evaluated with the community. Apparent community dietary intake, assessed by the ‘store-turnover’ method, and biochemical, anthropometric and haematological indicators of health and nutritional status were measured before intervention and at three-monthly intervals during the intervention year. Following intervention, there was a significant decrease in dietary intake of sugar and saturated fat, an increase in micronutrient density, corresponding improvements in biochemical indices (for example, a 12 per cent decrease in mean serum cholesterol, increases in serum and red cell folate, serum vitamin B6 and plasma ascorbic acid), decrease in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures, a normalisation of body mass index, and a normalisation of haematologic indices. The success of this project demonstrates that Aboriginal communities can bring about improvements in their generally poor nutritional status, and that the store-turnover method provides a valid, inexpensive and noninvasive method for evaluating the resultant changes in community diet. Although the project was undoubtedly effective in the short term, further work is in progress to assess individual strategies with respect to sustainability, cost-effectiveness and generalisability.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Board monitoring and the balanced scorecard in nonprofits : challenges in realising potential

Directors of nonprofits in most countries have legal responsibility for monitoring organisational performance (Brody 2010), although there is typically little guidance on how this should occur. The balanced scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan & Norton, 1996, 2001) potentially provides boards with a monitoring tool (Kaplan $ Norton, 2006; Lorsch, 2002). The BSC is intended to help integrate performance measurement, performance management and strategy implmentation (Kaplan 2009). The scorecards is balanced in that it should incorporate both financial and non-financial measures, external and internal perspectives, short and long-term objectives and both lagging and leading indicators. It is a relatively simple tool, but with potentially profound implications for directing board attention and sbusequent action (Ocasio, 1997; Salterio, 2012).

In-situ formation of graphene-lead oxide composite and its use in trace arsenic detection

Reduced graphene oxide-lead dioxide composite is formed when EGO coated surface is electrochemically reduced along with lead ions in the solution. This composite has been shown to be an excellent material for low level detection of arsenic. Various functional groups present on EGO, in a wide pH range of 2-11, are responsible for the favorable interaction between metal ion and the modified electrode surface and subsequent trace level detection. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopic techniques confirm the formation of composite and its composition. Thin layer of lead dioxide along with reduced exfoliated graphene oxide has been shown to be responsible for the enhanced activity of the surface. The detection limit of arsenic is found to be 10 nM. This study opens up the possibility of using the composites for sensing applications and possibly simultaneous detection of arsenic and lead. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential causes and impact indicators

The first regional synthesis of long-term (back to similar to 25 years at some stations) primary data (from direct measurement) on aerosol optical depth from the ARFINET (network of aerosol observatories established under the Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) project of Indian Space Research Organization over Indian subcontinent) have revealed a statistically significant increasing trend with a significant seasonal variability. Examining the current values of turbidity coefficients with those reported similar to 50 years ago reveals the phenomenal nature of the increase in aerosol loading. Seasonally, the rate of increase is consistently high during the dry months (December to March) over the entire region whereas the trends are rather inconsistent and weak during the premonsoon (April to May) and summer monsoon period (June to September). The trends in the spectral variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reveal the significance of anthropogenic activities on the increasing trend in AOD. Examining these with climate variables such as seasonal and regional rainfall, it is seen that the dry season depicts a decreasing trend in the total number of rainy days over the Indian region. The insignificant trend in AOD observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a regional hot spot of aerosols, during the premonsoon and summer monsoon season is mainly attributed to the competing effects of dust transport and wet removal of aerosols by the monsoon rain. Contributions of different aerosol chemical species to the total dust, simulated using Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model over the ARFINET stations, showed an increasing trend for all the anthropogenic components and a decreasing trend for dust, consistent with the inference deduced from trend in Angstrom exponent.

Spectral finite element based on an efficient layerwise theory for wave propagation analysis of composite and sandwich beams

In this paper, we present a spectral finite element model (SFEM) using an efficient and accurate layerwise (zigzag) theory, which is applicable for wave propagation analysis of highly inhomogeneous laminated composite and sandwich beams. The theory assumes a layerwise linear variation superimposed with a global third-order variation across the thickness for the axial displacement. The conditions of zero transverse shear stress at the top and bottom and its continuity at the layer interfaces are subsequently enforced to make the number of primary unknowns independent of the number of layers, thereby making the theory as efficient as the first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT). The spectral element developed is validated by comparing the present results with those available in the literature. A comparison of the natural frequencies of simply supported composite and sandwich beams obtained by the present spectral element with the exact two-dimensional elasticity and FSDT solutions reveals that the FSDT yields highly inaccurate results for the inhomogeneous sandwich beams and thick composite beams, whereas the present element based on the zigzag theory agrees very well with the exact elasticity solution for both thick and thin, composite and sandwich beams. A significant deviation in the dispersion relations obtained using the accurate zigzag theory and the FSDT is also observed for composite beams at high frequencies. It is shown that the pure shear rotation mode remains always evanescent, contrary to what has been reported earlier. The SFEM is subsequently used to study wavenumber dispersion, free vibration and wave propagation time history in soft-core sandwich beams with composite faces for the first time in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring urbanization and its implications in a mega city from space: Spatiotemporal patterns and its indicators

Rapid and invasive urbanization has been associated with depletion of natural resources (vegetation and water resources), which in turn deteriorates the landscape structure and conditions in the local environment. Rapid increase in population due to the migration from rural areas is one of the critical issues of the urban growth. Urbanisation in India is drastically changing the land cover and often resulting in the sprawl. The sprawl regions often lack basic amenities such as treated water supply, sanitation, etc. This necessitates regular monitoring and understanding of the rate of urban development in order to ensure the sustenance of natural resources. Urban sprawl is the extent of urbanization which leads to the development of urban forms with the destruction of ecology and natural landforms. The rate of change of land use and extent of urban sprawl can be efficiently visualized and modelled with the help of geo-informatics. The knowledge of urban area, especially the growth magnitude, shape geometry, and spatial pattern is essential to understand the growth and characteristics of urbanization process. Urban pattern, shape and growth can be quantified using spatial metrics. This communication quantifies the urbanisation and associated growth pattern in Delhi. Spatial data of four decades were analysed to understand land over and land use dynamics. Further the region was divided into 4 zones and into circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand and quantify the local spatial changes. Results of the landscape metrics indicate that the urban center was highly aggregated and the outskirts and the buffer regions were in the verge of aggregating urban patches. Shannon's Entropy index clearly depicted the outgrowth of sprawl areas in different zones of Delhi. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Superior Performance of a MoS2-RGO Composite and a Borocarbonitride in the Electrochemical Detection of Dopamine, Uric Acid and Adenine

A MoS2-RGO composite and borocarbonitride (BC5N) have been used as electrodes to selectively detect dopamine and uric acid in the presence of ascorbic acid. Both the electrodes show excellent eletrocatalytic activity towards the detection of dopamine, the detection limits being 0.55 mu M and 2.1 mu M in the case of MoS2-RGO and BCN respectively. MoS2-RGO shows a linear range of current over the 1-110 mu M concentrations of dopamine, while BCN shows over the 2.3-20 mu M range. BCN also exhibits satisfactory performance in the oxidation of uric acid with a detection limit of 3.8 mu M and the linear range from 4 to 40 mu M. The MoS2-RGO has also been used to detect adenine as well.