Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule; The Russian power industry shortly before reforms; Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchical system. OSW Study 5/2002

Big business in Russia: The pace of ownership transfer in the Russian economy has speeded up considerably over the last year. There has been a significant rise in the number of acquisitions of whole enterprises, and large blocks of shares in individual firms and plants. Similarly the number of mergers, bankruptcies and take-overs of failing firms by their strongest competitors has grown. The Russian power industry: This study is an overview of the current condition and principles on which the Russian power sector has been functioning so far. This analysis has been carried out against the background of the changes that have been taking place in the sector since the beginning of the 1990s. This text also contains a description of guidelines and progress made so far in implementing the reform of the Russian power industry, the draft of which was adopted by the government of the Russian Federation in summer 2001. However, the purpose of this study is not an economic analysis of the draft, but an attempt to present the political conditions and possible consequences of the transformations carried out in the Russian power sector. The final part attempts to evaluate the possibilities and threats related to the implementation of the reform in its present shape. Ukrainian metallurgy: The metallurgic sector, like the east-west transit of energy raw materials, is a strategic source of revenue for Ukraine. Over the last ten years, this sector has become Kiev's most important source of foreign currency inflows, accounting for over 40 per cent of its total export revenues. The growth of metallurgic production, which has continued almost without interruption since the mid-1990s, has contributed considerably to the increase in GDP which Ukraine showed in 2000, for the first time in its independent history.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Tuulivoimageneraattorin konseptisuunnittelu

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee tuulivoimageneraattorin konseptisuunnittelua. Työssä käydään läpi tuulivoimateollisuuden, -markkinoiden ja -turbiinien historiaa, nykyhetkeä ja tulevaisuuden ennusteita. Tuulivoimaturbiineista esitellään yleisimmät tyypit ja teknologiat, joita vertaillaan keskenään. Lisäksi selvitetään tarkemmin suoravetoisten tuuliturbiinigeneraattoreiden teknologiaa ja teknisiä rakenteita joita myös vertaillaan keskenään. Työn pääasiallisena tarkoituksena on luoda selkeä konseptisuunnitteluprojektin toimintamalli, jota noudattamalla projekti voidaan hoitaa johdonmukaisesti läpi. Lopuksi työssä vielä käydään läpi suoravetoisen kestomagneettigeneraattorin todellinen konseptisuunnitteluprojekti, jossa ei ole ollut käytössä selkeää toimintamallia.

Impact of wind power generation on the electricity supply industry

The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the effect wind energy has on the Electricity Supply Industry in Ireland. Wind power generation is a source of renewable energy that is in abundant supply in Ireland and is fast becoming a resource that Ireland is depending on as a diverse and secure of supply of energy. However, wind is an intermittent resource and coupled with a variable demand, there are integration issues with balancing demand and supply effectively. To maintain a secure supply of electricity to customers, it is necessary that wind power has an operational reserve to ensure appropriate backup for situations where there is low wind but high demand. This dissertation examines the affect of this integration by comparing wind generation to that of conventional generation in the national grid. This is done to ascertain the cost benefits of wind power generation against a scenario with no wind generation. Then, the analysis examines to see if wind power can meet the pillars of sustainability. This entails looking at wind in a practical scenario to observe how it meets these pillars under the criteria of environmental responsibility, displacement of conventional fuel, cost competitiveness and security of supply.

The structure and development of Russia's food retail sector from the point of view of Finnish food industry

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän ruoan vähittäiskaupan rakenne ja sen tuleva kehitys. Tällä hetkellä se on yksi maailman nopeimmin kasvavista markkinoista. Kasvun syynä on korkea öljyn hinta, jokaon kumuloitunut ihmisten palkkoihin. Kuitenkin vaikka tulot kasvavat, ruokaan käytetty osuus tuloista on pysynyt suhteellisen vakaana. Kulutus on siis siirtymässä laadukkaampiin ja arvokkaampiin tuotteisiin Modernien kauppojen osuus markkinoista on vielä pieni, koska Venäjän vähittäiskauppasektori on yhä hajaantunut perinteisiin kauppaformaatteihin kuten kioskeihin, toreille ja pieniin ruokakauppoihin. Kauppaketjut ovat kuitenkin tulossa merkittävämmiksi. Suurin markkina-alue vähittäiskauppiaille on Moskova, mutta tällä hetkellä ketjut laajentavat toimintojaan nopeasti myös muille Venäjän alueille. Parhaat kasvunäkymät ovat alueilla, vaikka Moskovan markkinat eivät olekaan kyllästyneet. Tärkein kasvua rajoittava tekijä Moskovassa on rakennustonttien ja kiinteistöjen saatavuus. Vähittäiskauppamarkkinat lähestyvät kyllästymispistettä, josta seuraa markkinoiden konsolidaatio. Tämä prosessi on jo alkanut, mutta kovin paljon yritysostoja ei ole vielätehty. Toistaiseksi kauppaketjut ovat tyytyneet muodostamaan alliansseja. Ketjut pyrkivät parantamaan asemaansa hintaneuvotteluissa muodostamalla osto-alliansseja, luomalla omia brändejä ja käyttämällä alueellista laajentumista lyömäaseena. Jotta ruoan tuottaja pääsisi myös alueellisille markkinoille, on sen ehkä suostuttava myymään tuotteitaan edullisempaan hintaan. Tavarantoimittajat ovat vahvassa asemassa silloin, kun heillä on toimiva jakeluverkko, kyky JIT-toimituksiin,kunnollinen dokumentaatiokäytäntö, vahva brändi ja edullinen hinta. Ns. listausmaksun suuruus voi määrittää tuottajan tuotteilleen saaman hyllytilan koon.

International comparison of Russian food processing industry -Finnish perspective

Työn päätavoitteena on kartoittaa Venäjän elintarviketeollisuutta ulkomaisen investoijan näkökulmasta. Tutkimus arvioi liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia ja kilpailutilannetta Venäjän elintarviketeollisuudessa ja auttaa ulkomaisia yrityksiä toteuttamaan liiketoimintastrategioitaan Venäjällä. Venäjän ja muiden siirtymätalousmaiden markkinatilannevertailujen lisäksi Venäjän alueita verrataan keskenään. Myös mahdollisen WTO jäsenyyden vaikutuksia arvioidaan. Kommunismin perintö vaikuttaa edelleen Venäjän elintarviketeollisuuteen ja maatalouteen. Maatalouden tuottavuus on kaukana länsimaisesta tasosta ja maatiloilta puuttuu rahoitusta. Etenkin maidon- ja lihanjalostajat kärsivät raaka-ainepulasta. Venäjän kriisi vuonna 1998 vahvisti paikallista teollisuustuotantoa mutta aiheutti ongelmia ulkomaisille investoijille ja yrityksille, jotka vievät tuotteitaan Venäjälle. Edut, joita mahdollinen maailmankauppajärjestö WTO:n jäsenyys tuo, ovat merkittävämpiä Venäjälle kuin sen kauppakumppaneille. Venäjän alueet eivät ole yhtäläisesti kehittyneitä ja kuluttajien ostovoima vaihtelee paljon. Itsestään selvin ja houkuttelevin vaihtoehto menestyvien elintarvikeyritysten laajentumiselle löytyy alueilta, joilla ostovoima on suurin. Tähän asti kansainväliset elintarvikeyritykset ovat olleet enemmän kiinnostuneita Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan maista. Käytettävissä olevat tulot ovat Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan maissa suurempia kuin Venäjällä, joten tuottajat pystyvät myymään myös kalliimpia tuotteita. Työvoimakustannukset Venäjällä tulevat olemaan suotuisia vielä muutaman vuosikymmenen ja markkinoiden koko on merkittävä. Siksi kansainvälisillä elintarvikeyrityksillä riittää kiinnostusta tulevaisuudessa investoida myös Venäjälle.

Distribution systems of the food sector in Russia: the perspective of Finnish food industry

Finnish food producers' trade with Russia has experienced profound changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, the distribution systems of foodstuffs have changed remarkably. This study sheds some light into these changes and analyses the current situation in distribution systems of foodstuffs in Russia. In addition, the study discusses the possibilities of Finnish food producers to get more of their products to the shelves of Russian food retail stores. Before the 1998 financial crisis, the import of foreign foodstuffs was booming in Russia due to the overvalued rouble. As a result of the financial crisis, food import collapsed. The export of Finnish foodstuffs to Russia has been slowly recovering during the past few years, but in the most important product categories the pre-crisis levels have so far not been reached and maybe will not be reached. In certain product categories the growth has been only marginal. It seems that starting localproduction will become increasingly important in the future. This is further encouraged by the fact that Russian consumers favour domestic food products. Russian consumers are very price conscious and demand quality in food products. The perceived price-quality ratio is an important criterion in the purchase decision.The majority of foodstuff retail is still conducted via unorganised forms of trade (e.g. kiosks and marketplaces) but modern retail chains are developing at a fast pace in Russia. They are also expected to dominate the retail trade in foodstuffs over the unorganised forms of trade in the future. This will change the distribution systems as well. The retail chains are trying to shorten the distribution chain, similarly to what has been seen in the Western countries. This together with the strengthening of retail chains is likely to shrink the role of wholesalers, as the chains increasingly want to work directly with the producers. Many large retail chains are acquiring or have already acquired a distribution centre or centres in order to boost efficiency and control the flow of products. The strengthening of the retail chains also gives them power in negotiations, which the producers and distributors have to adjust to. For example store entry fees and retail chains' own private label products pose challenges to the food producers. In the food production sector the competition is fierce, as large Russianand foreign producers want to ensure their piece of the market. The largest producers utilise their size: they invest in big marketing campaigns and are willing to pay high entry fees to retail chains in order to secure a place on the store shelves and to build a strong brand in Russia. This complicates the situation from the viewpoint of small producers. Currently, the most popular type of distribution system among the interviewed Finnish food producers is based on a network of local distributors. There is, however, a strong consensus on the importanceof starting local production in order to be a serious actor in Russia in the future. Factors that hinder the starting of local production include the lack of local infrastructure and qualified staff, and the low risk tolerance of Finnish firms. Major barriers for entry in Russia are the actions of authorities, fierce competition, fragmented market and Finnish producers' heavy production costs. The suggested strategies for increasing the market share include focusing geographically or segment-wise, introducing new products, starting local production, andcooperation between Finnish producers. Smallness was one reason why Finnish producers had to cut down their operations in Russia due to the 1998 crisis. Smaller producers had fewer resources to tolerate losses during the period of crisis. Smallness is reflected also on trade negotiations with retail chains and distributors. It makes it harder to cope with the store entry fees and to differentiatefrom the mass of products propped up by expensive advertising. Finally, it makes it harder for Finnish producers to start or expand local production, as it is more difficult for a small producer to get financing and to tolerate the increased risks. Compensating for the smallness might become the crucial factor determining the future success of Finnish food producers in the Russian market.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.

Electromagnetic transients analysis of lightning overvoltages on wind power plants

As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, lightning and overvoltage incidents involving wind power plants have come to be regarded as a serious problem. Firstly, lightning location systems are discussed, as well as important parameters regarding lightning protection. Also, this paper presents a case study, based on a wind turbine with an interconnecting transformer, for the study of adequate lightning and overvoltage protection measures. The electromagnetic transients circuit under study is described, and computational results are presented.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Using demand response to deal with unexpected low wind power generation in the context of smart grid

Demand response is assumed an essential resource to fully achieve the smart grids operating benefits, namely in the context of competitive markets. Some advantages of Demand Response (DR) programs and of smart grids can only be achieved through the implementation of Real Time Pricing (RTP). The integration of the expected increasing amounts of distributed energy resources, as well as new players, requires new approaches for the changing operation of power systems. The methodology proposed aims the minimization of the operation costs in a smart grid operated by a virtual power player. It is especially useful when actual and day ahead wind forecast differ significantly. When facing lower wind power generation than expected, RTP is used in order to minimize the impacts of such wind availability change. The proposed model application is here illustrated using the scenario of a special wind availability reduction day in the Portuguese power system (8th February 2012).

Simulation of offshore wind system with two-level converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.

Simulation of offshore wind system with two levels converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.

Simulation of offshore wind system with three-level converters: HVDC power transmission in cloud scope

This paper is on a simulation for offshore wind systems in deep water under cloud scope. The system is equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator and a full-power three-level converter, converting the electric energy at variable frequency in one at constant frequency. The control strategies for the three-level are based on proportional integral controllers. The electric energy is injected through a HVDC transmission submarine cable into the grid. The drive train is modeled by a three-mass model taking into account the resistant stiffness torque, structure and tower in the deep water due to the moving surface elevation. Conclusions are taken on the influence of the moving surface on the energy conversion. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015.