Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

Load-balancing for mesh-based applications on heterogeneous cluster computers

This paper discusses load-balancing issues when using heterogeneous cluster computers. There is a growing trend towards the use of commodity microprocessor clusters. Although today's microprocessors have reached a theoretical peak performance in the range of one GFLOPS/s, heterogeneous clusters of commodity processors are amongst the most challenging parallel systems to programme efficiently. We will outline an approach for optimising the performance of parallel mesh-based applications for heterogeneous cluster computers and present case studies with the GeoFEM code. The focus is on application cost monitoring and load balancing using the DRAMA library.

Sequential extracellular matrix-focused and baited-global cluster analysis of serial transcriptomic profiles identifies candidate modulators of renal tubulointerstitial fibrosis in murine adriamycin-induced nephropathy

Transcriptome analysis using microarray technology represents a powerful unbiased approach for delineating pathogenic mechanisms in disease. Here molecular mechanisms of renal tubulointerstitial fibrosis (TIF) were probed by monitoring changes in the renal transcriptome in a glomerular disease-dependent model of TIF ( adriamycin nephropathy) using Affymetrix (mu74av2) microarray coupled with sequential primary biological function-focused and secondary

Effect of a pharmacist-led multicomponent intervention focussing on the medication monitoring phase to prevent potential adverse drug events in nursing homes

OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent to which the use of a clinical informatics tool that implements prospective monitoring plans reduces the incidence of potential delirium, falls, hospitalizations potentially due to adverse drug events, and mortality.

DESIGN: Randomized cluster trial.

SETTING: Twenty-five nursing homes serviced by two long-term care pharmacies.

PARTICIPANTS: Residents living in nursing homes during 2003 (1,711 in 12 intervention; 1,491 in 13 usual care) and 2004 (1,769 in 12 intervention; 1,552 in 13 usual care).

INTERVENTION: The pharmacy automatically generated Geriatric Risk Assessment MedGuide (GRAM) reports and automated monitoring plans for falls and delirium within 24 hours of admission or as part of the normal time frame of federally mandated drug regimen review.

MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of potential delirium, falls, hospitalizations potentially due to adverse drug events, and mortality.

RESULTS: GRAM triggered monitoring plans for 491 residents. Newly admitted residents in the intervention homes experienced a lower rate of potential delirium onset than those in usual care homes (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.35–0.52), overall hospitalization (adjusted HR=0.89, 95% CI=0.72–1.09), and mortality (adjusted HR=0.88, 95% CI=0.66–1.16). In longer stay residents, the effects of the intervention were attenuated, and all estimates included unity.

CONCLUSION: Using health information technology in long-term care pharmacies to identify residents who might benefit from the implementation of prospective medication monitoring care plans when complex medication regimens carry potential risks for falls and delirium may reduce adverse effects associated with appropriate medication use.

PS1-12sk is a Peculiar Supernova From a He-rich Progenitor System in a Brightest Cluster Galaxy Environment

We report on our discovery and observations of the Pan-STARRS1 supernova (SN) PS1-12sk, a transient with properties that indicate atypical star formation in its host galaxy cluster or pose a challenge to popular progenitor system models for this class of explosion. The optical spectra of PS1-12sk classify it as a Type Ibn SN (c.f. SN 2006jc), dominated by intermediate-width (3x10^3 km/s) and time variable He I emission. Our multi-wavelength monitoring establishes the rise time dt = 9-23 days and shows an NUV-NIR SED with temperature > 17x10^3 K and a peak rise magnitude of Mz = -18.9 mag. SN Ibn spectroscopic properties are commonly interpreted as the signature of a massive star (17 - 100 M_sun) explosion within a He-enriched circumstellar medium. However, unlike previous Type Ibn supernovae, PS1-12sk is associated with an elliptical brightest cluster galaxy, CGCG 208-042 (z = 0.054) in cluster RXC J0844.9+4258. The expected probability of an event like PS1-12sk in such environments is low given the measured infrequency of core-collapse SNe in red sequence galaxies compounded by the low volumetric rate of SN Ibn. Furthermore, we find no evidence of star formation at the explosion site to sensitive limits (Sigma Halpha

Running Climate Models On The NERC Cluster Grid Using G-Rex

Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them usually involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. For example, NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) is a state-of-the-art ocean model that is used currently for operational ocean forecasting in France, and will soon be used in the UK for both ocean forecasting and climate modelling. On a typical modern cluster, a particular one year global ocean simulation at 1-degree resolution takes about three hours when running on 40 processors, and produces roughly 20 GB of output as 50000 separate files. 50-year simulations are common, during which the model is resubmitted as a new job after each year. Running NEMO relies on a set of complicated shell scripts and command utilities for data pre-processing and post-processing prior to job resubmission. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) is a pure Java grid middleware system that allows scientific applications to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems, and then launched and controlled as if they are running on the user's own computer. Although G-Rex is general purpose middleware it has two key features that make it particularly suitable for remote execution of climate models: (1) Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model; (2) The client component is a command-line program that can easily be incorporated into existing model work-flow scripts. G-Rex has a REST (Fielding, 2000) architectural style, which allows client programs to be very simple and lightweight and allows users to interact with model runs using only a basic HTTP client (such as a Web browser or the curl utility) if they wish. This design also allows for new client interfaces to be developed in other programming languages with relatively little effort. The G-Rex server is a standard Web application that runs inside a servlet container such as Apache Tomcat and is therefore easy to install and maintain by system administrators. G-Rex is employed as the middleware for the NERC1 Cluster Grid, a small grid of HPC2 clusters belonging to collaborating NERC research institutes. Currently the NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) and POLCOMS (Holt et al, 2008) ocean models are installed, and there are plans to install the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model for use in the decadal climate prediction project GCEP (Haines et al., 2008). The science projects involving NEMO on the Grid have a particular focus on data assimilation (Smith et al. 2008), a technique that involves constraining model simulations with observations. The POLCOMS model will play an important part in the GCOMS project (Holt et al, 2008), which aims to simulate the world’s coastal oceans. A typical use of G-Rex by a scientist to run a climate model on the NERC Cluster Grid proceeds as follows :(1) The scientist prepares input files on his or her local machine. (2) Using information provided by the Grid’s Ganglia3 monitoring system, the scientist selects an appropriate compute resource. (3) The scientist runs the relevant workflow script on his or her local machine. This is unmodified except that calls to run the model (e.g. with “mpirun”) are simply replaced with calls to "GRexRun" (4) The G-Rex middleware automatically handles the uploading of input files to the remote resource, and the downloading of output files back to the user, including their deletion from the remote system, during the run. (5) The scientist monitors the output files, using familiar analysis and visualization tools on his or her own local machine. G-Rex is well suited to climate modelling because it addresses many of the middleware usability issues that have led to limited uptake of grid computing by climate scientists. It is a lightweight, low-impact and easy-to-install solution that is currently designed for use in relatively small grids such as the NERC Cluster Grid. A current topic of research is the use of G-Rex as an easy-to-use front-end to larger-scale Grid resources such as the UK National Grid service.

A systematic review of the routine monitoring of growth in children of primary school age to identify growth-related conditions

Objectives: To clarify the role of growth monitoring in primary school children, including obesity, and to examine issues that might impact on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such programmes. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to July 2005. Experts in the field were also consulted. Review methods: Data extraction and quality assessment were performed on studies meeting the review's inclusion criteria. The performance of growth monitoring to detect disorders of stature and obesity was evaluated against National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria. Results: In the 31 studies that were included in the review, there were no controlled trials of the impact of growth monitoring and no studies of the diagnostic accuracy of different methods for growth monitoring. Analysis of the studies that presented a 'diagnostic yield' of growth monitoring suggested that one-off screening might identify between 1: 545 and 1: 1793 new cases of potentially treatable conditions. Economic modelling suggested that growth monitoring is associated with health improvements [ incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of pound 9500] and indicated that monitoring was cost-effective 100% of the time over the given probability distributions for a willingness to pay threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY. Studies of obesity focused on the performance of body mass index against measures of body fat. A number of issues relating to human resources required for growth monitoring were identified, but data on attitudes to growth monitoring were extremely sparse. Preliminary findings from economic modelling suggested that primary prevention may be the most cost-effective approach to obesity management, but the model incorporated a great deal of uncertainty. Conclusions: This review has indicated the potential utility and cost-effectiveness of growth monitoring in terms of increased detection of stature-related disorders. It has also pointed strongly to the need for further research. Growth monitoring does not currently meet all NSC criteria. However, it is questionable whether some of these criteria can be meaningfully applied to growth monitoring given that short stature is not a disease in itself, but is used as a marker for a range of pathologies and as an indicator of general health status. Identification of effective interventions for the treatment of obesity is likely to be considered a prerequisite to any move from monitoring to a screening programme designed to identify individual overweight and obese children. Similarly, further long-term studies of the predictors of obesity-related co-morbidities in adulthood are warranted. A cluster randomised trial comparing growth monitoring strategies with no growth monitoring in the general population would most reliably determine the clinical effectiveness of growth monitoring. Studies of diagnostic accuracy, alongside evidence of effective treatment strategies, could provide an alternative approach. In this context, careful consideration would need to be given to target conditions and intervention thresholds. Diagnostic accuracy studies would require long-term follow-up of both short and normal children to determine sensitivity and specificity of growth monitoring.

Investigation of the faecal microbiota of kittens: monitoring bacterial succession and effect of diet

Weaning is a stressful process for kittens, and is often associated with diarrhoea and the onset of infectious diseases. The gastrointestinal microbiota plays an essential role in host well-being, including improving homeostasis. Composition of the gastrointestinal microbiota of young cats is poorly understood, and the impact of diet on the kitten microbiota unknown. The aims of this study were to monitor the faecal microbiota of kittens and determine the effect(s) of diet on its composition. Bacterial succession was monitored in two groups of kittens (at 4 and 6 weeks, and 4 and 9 months of age) fed different foods. Age-related microbial changes revealed significantly different counts of total bacteria, lactic acid bacteria, Desulfovibrionales, Clostridium cluster IX and Bacteroidetes between 4-week- and 9-month-old kittens. Diet-associated differences in the faecal microbiota of the two feeding groups were evident. In general, fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis demonstrated bifidobacteria, Atopobium group, Clostridium cluster XIV and lactic acid bacteria were dominant in kittens. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiling showed highly complex and diverse faecal microbiotas for kittens, with age- and/or food-related changes seen in relation to species richness and similarity indices. Four-week-old kittens harboured more diverse and variable profiles than those of weaned kittens.

PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors in general practice are an important source of potentially preventable morbidity and mortality. Building on previous descriptive, qualitative and pilot work, we sought to investigate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and likely generalisability of a complex pharm acist-led IT-based intervention aiming to improve prescribing safety in general practice. Objectives: We sought to: • Test the hypothesis that a pharmacist-led IT-based complex intervention using educational outreach and practical support is more effective than simple feedback in reducing the proportion of patients at risk from errors in prescribing and medicines management in general practice. • Conduct an economic evaluation of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). • Analyse data recorded by pharmacists, summarising the proportions of patients judged to be at clinical risk, the actions recommended by pharmacists, and actions completed in the practices. • Explore the views and experiences of healthcare professionals and NHS managers concerning the intervention; investigate potential explanations for the observed effects, and inform decisions on the future roll-out of the pharmacist-led intervention • Examine secular trends in the outcome measures of interest allowing for informal comparison between trial practices and practices that did not participate in the trial contributing to the QRESEARCH database. Methods Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of 72 English general practices with embedded economic analysis and longitudinal descriptive and qualitative analysis. Informal comparison of the trial findings with a national descriptive study investigating secular trends undertaken using data from practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The main outcomes of interest were prescribing errors and medication monitoring errors at six- and 12-months following the intervention. Results: Participants in the pharmacist intervention arm practices were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID without a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) if they had a history of peptic ulcer (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.38, 0.89), to have been prescribed a beta-blocker if they had asthma (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58, 0.91) or (in those aged 75 years and older) to have been prescribed an ACE inhibitor or diuretic without a measurement of urea and electrolytes in the last 15 months (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34, 0.78). The economic analysis suggests that the PINCER pharmacist intervention has 95% probability of being cost effective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 (6 months) or £85 (12 months) per error avoided. The intervention addressed an issue that was important to professionals and their teams and was delivered in a way that was acceptable to practices with minimum disruption of normal work processes. Comparison of the trial findings with changes seen in QRESEARCH practices indicated that any reductions achieved in the simple feedback arm were likely, in the main, to have been related to secular trends rather than the intervention. Conclusions Compared with simple feedback, the pharmacist-led intervention resulted in reductions in proportions of patients at risk of prescribing and monitoring errors for the primary outcome measures and the composite secondary outcome measures at six-months and (with the exception of the NSAID/peptic ulcer outcome measure) 12-months post-intervention. The intervention is acceptable to pharmacists and practices, and is likely to be seen as costeffective by decision makers.

A pharmacist-led information technology intervention for medication errors (PINCER): a multicentre, cluster randomised, controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Medication errors are common in primary care and are associated with considerable risk of patient harm. We tested whether a pharmacist-led, information technology-based intervention was more effective than simple feedback in reducing the number of patients at risk of measures related to hazardous prescribing and inadequate blood-test monitoring of medicines 6 months after the intervention. Methods: In this pragmatic, cluster randomised trial general practices in the UK were stratified by research site and list size, and randomly assigned by a web-based randomisation service in block sizes of two or four to one of two groups. The practices were allocated to either computer-generated simple feedback for at-risk patients (control) or a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER), composed of feedback, educational outreach, and dedicated support. The allocation was masked to general practices, patients, pharmacists, researchers, and statisticians. Primary outcomes were the proportions of patients at 6 months after the intervention who had had any of three clinically important errors: non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) prescribed to those with a history of peptic ulcer without co-prescription of a proton-pump inhibitor; β blockers prescribed to those with a history of asthma; long-term prescription of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or loop diuretics to those 75 years or older without assessment of urea and electrolytes in the preceding 15 months. The cost per error avoided was estimated by incremental cost-eff ectiveness analysis. This study is registered with Controlled-Trials.com, number ISRCTN21785299. Findings: 72 general practices with a combined list size of 480 942 patients were randomised. At 6 months’ follow-up, patients in the PINCER group were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID if they had a history of peptic ulcer without gastroprotection (OR 0∙58, 95% CI 0∙38–0∙89); a β blocker if they had asthma (0∙73, 0∙58–0∙91); or an ACE inhibitor or loop diuretic without appropriate monitoring (0∙51, 0∙34–0∙78). PINCER has a 95% probability of being cost eff ective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 per error avoided at 6 months. Interpretation: The PINCER intervention is an effective method for reducing a range of medication errors in general practices with computerised clinical records. Funding: Patient Safety Research Portfolio, Department of Health, England.

GridRM: an extensible resource monitoring system

GridRM is an open and extensible resource monitoring system, based on the Global Grid Forum's Grid Monitoring Architecture (GMA). GridRM is not intended to interact with applications; rather it is designed to monitor the resources that an application may use. This paper focuses on the dynamic driver infrastructure used by GridRM to interact with heterogeneous data sources, such as SNMP or Ganglia agents, and how it provides a homogeneous view of the underlying heterogeneous data. This paper discusses the local infrastructure and details work implementing and deploying a number of drivers.

QEXAFS and UV/Vis Simultaneous Monitoring of the TiO2-Nanoparticles Formation by Hydrolytic Sol-Gel Route

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Analysis of floristic composition and structure as an aid to monitoring protected areas of dense rain forest in southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In Situ and Simultaneous UV-vis/SAXS and UV-vis/XAFS Time-Resolved Monitoring of ZnO Quantum Dots Formation and Growth

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)