Síntese de uma biblioteca de derivados de indole com potencial actividade antioxidante e inibição selectiva da COX‐2

Os compostos indólicos constituem uma extensa e larga família de compostos presentes em bactérias, plantas e animais, sendo alvo de especial interesse nas áreas tanto da química biológica como na da química medicinal. O triptofano, aminoácido essencial para o Homem, constitui um importante exemplo de derivados de indole. Outros exemplos, derivados desta importante estrutura, são o ácido indole‐3‐acético (hormona presente nas plantas) e a melatonina (hormona segregada pela glândula pineal). Uma importante característica dos compostos derivados do indole é que estes podem ser úteis como fármacos usados no tratamento da inflamação (por exemplo,indometacina, acemetacina, etodolac), assim como no tratamento de doenças associadas ao stress oxidativo, como o cancro e doenças neurodegenerativas. Com o intuito de estudar a relação estrutura‐actividade sintetizou‐se uma biblioteca de derivados de indole e, posteriormente, avaliou‐se a actividade antioxidante dos compostos preparados usando como espécie reactiva de oxigénio o radical peroxilo. Todos os compostos testados, à excepção de um, revelaram actividade. Os resultados obtidos contribuirão para o design racional de futuras gerações de bibliotecas. Foram, ainda, desenvolvidos estudos sintéticos para a preparação de um potencial inibidor selectivo da COX‐2.

Adalimumab in acute sciatica reduces the long-term need for surgery: a 3-year follow-up of a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severe acute sciatica significantly reduced the number of back operations in a short-term randomised controlled clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To determine in a 3-year follow-up study whether the short-term benefit of adalimumab in sciatica is sustained over a longer period of time. METHODS: The primary outcome of this analysis was incident discectomy. Three years after randomisation, information on surgery could be retrieved in 56/61 patients (92%).A multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to determine factors predisposing to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years, 8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/27 (56%) in the placebo group, p=0.04. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for back surgery by 61% (HR)=0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.92). In a multivariate model, treatment with a tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist remained the strongest protective factor (HR=0.17, p=0.002). Other significant predictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptoms and MRI findings (HR=11.6, p=0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain (HR=1.3, p=0.06), intensity of back pain (HR=1.4, p=0.03) and duration of sickness leave (HR=1.01 per day, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severe acute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.

Risk of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome Is Twice as High in Cyclosporine Treated Patients in Comparison to Tacrolimus 3 Years after Lung Transplantation: Results of a Prospective Randomized International Trial of 248 Patients

Purpose: In this prospective randomized study efficacy and safety of two immunosuppressive regimens (Tac, MMF, Steroids vs. CsA, MMF, Steroids) after Lung Transplantation were compared. Primary objective was the incidence of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). Secondary objectives were incidence of acute rejection and infection, survival and adverse events. 248 patients with a complete 3 year follow-up were included in the analysis. Methods and Materials: Patients were randomized to treatment group A: Tac (0.01-0.03 mg/kg/d iv-0.05-0.3 mg/kg/d po) or B: CsA (1-3 mg/kg/d iv-2-8 mg/kg/d po). MMF dose was1-4 mg/d in both groups. No induction therapy was given. Patients were stratified for cystic fibrosis. Intention to treat analysis was performed in patients who were switched to a different immunosuppressive regimen. Results: 3 of 123 Tac patients and 41 of 125 CsA patients were switched to another immunosuppressive regimen and were analyzed as intention to treat. Three year follow-up data of the complete patient cohort were included in this final analysis. Groups showed no difference in demographic data. Kaplan Meier analysis revealed significantly less BOS in Tac treated patients (p=0.033, log rank test, pooled over strata). Cox regression showed a twice as high risk for BOS in the CsA group (factor 2.003). Incidence of acute rejection was 67.5% (Tac) and 75.2% (CsA) (p=0.583). One- and 3-year-survival-rates were not different (85.4% Tac vs. 88.8% CsA, and 80.5% Tac vs. 83.2% CsA, p=n.s.). Incidence of infections and renal failure was similar (p=n.s.). Conclusions: Tac significantly reduced the risk for BOS after 3 years in this intention to treat analysis. Both regimens have a good immunosuppressive potential and offer a similar safety profile with excellent one and three year survival rates. Acute rejection rates were similar in both groups. Incidence of infections and renal failure showed no difference.

Improving appropriateness of antibiotic therapy: randomized trial of an intervention to foster reassessment of prescription after 3 days.

OBJECTIVES: Reassessment of ongoing antibiotic therapy is an important step towards appropriate use of antibiotics. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a short questionnaire designed to encourage reassessment of intravenous antibiotic therapy after 3 days. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients hospitalized on the surgical and medical wards of a university hospital and treated with an intravenous antibiotic for 3-4 days were randomly allocated to either an intervention or control group. The intervention consisted of mailing to the physician in charge of the patient a three-item questionnaire referring to possible adaptation of the antibiotic therapy. The primary outcome was the time elapsed from randomization until a first modification of the initial intravenous antibiotic therapy. It was compared within both groups using Cox proportional-hazard modelling. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-six eligible patients were randomized in the intervention group and 125 in the control group. Time to modification of intravenous antibiotic therapy was 14% shorter in the intervention group (adjusted hazard ratio for modification 1.28, 95% CI 0.99-1.67, P = 0.06). It was significantly shorter in the intervention group compared with a similar group of 151 patients observed during a 2 month period preceding the study (adjusted hazard ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.32, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: The results suggest that a short questionnaire, easily adaptable to automatization, has the potential to foster reassessment of antibiotic therapy.

The effect of COX-2 inhibitors on the formation of heterotopic bone in a rat model : O1323

Aims: 1) to create a new and reproducible animal model to produce heterotopic ossification (HO) 2) to be able to exactly quantify the amount of HO using a microCT scan and 3) to prove the hypothesis that COX-2 inhibitors are efficacious in the prevention of HO. Methods: We developed a IACUC-approved Lewis rat model, in which the ventral side of the right femur was scraped to mechanically disrupt the periosteum. By clamping the vastus intermedius ischemic injury to the muscle was produced to enhance HO. Finally homologous bone marrow from a donor rat was placed on the anterior surface of the femur. Half of the study group (8 rats) received chow mixed with a COX-2 inhibitor, while the other half received normal chow. After 6 weeks the animals were sacrificed, the femurs removed and imaged by microCT. Grading of HO was based on the thickness of ectopic bone as evaluated in a blinded fashion by 3 independent observers. Results: All animals developed bilateral HO. Rats treated with COX-2 inhibitors developed significantly less ectopic bone than the control group rats. Conclusions: The results suggest that we have created a very reliable, reproducible model to form ectopic bone in rats. Using the microCT we can precisely quantify the amount of HO. We have been able to show that COX-2 inhibitors significantly decrease the amount of HO formation and are thus a good alternative to non-specific NSAIDs with their potential serious side effects on the gastrointestinal tract and on hemo-stastis.

Randomized phase 3 trial of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide alone or followed by Paclitaxel for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Taxanes are among the most active drugs for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and, as a consequence, they have also been studied in the adjuvant setting. METHODS After breast cancer surgery, women with lymph node-positive disease were randomly assigned to treatment with fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with FEC followed by weekly paclitaxel (FEC-P). The primary endpoint of study-5-year disease-free survival (DFS)-was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and analysis of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical and molecular (hormone receptors by immunohistochemistry and HER2 by fluorescence in situ hybridization) markers. Associations and interactions were assessed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for DFS for the following covariates: age, menopausal status, tumor size, lymph node status, type of chemotherapy, tumor size, positive lymph nodes, HER2 status, and hormone receptor status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Among the 1246 eligible patients, estimated rates of DFS at 5 years were 78.5% in the FEC-P arm and 72.1% in the FEC arm (difference = 6.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6% to 11.2%; P = .006). FEC-P treatment was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of relapse compared with FEC treatment (146 relapses in the 614 patients in the FEC-P arm vs 193 relapses in the 632 patients in the FEC arm, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.95; P = .022) and a 22% reduction in the risk of death (73 and 95 deaths, respectively, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.06; P = .110). Among the 928 patients for whom tumor samples were centrally analyzed, type of chemotherapy (FEC vs FEC-P) (P = .017), number of involved axillary lymph nodes (P < .001), tumor size (P = .020), hormone receptor status (P = .004), and HER2 status (P = .006) were all associated with DFS. We found no statistically significant interaction between HER2 status and paclitaxel treatment or between hormone receptor status and paclitaxel treatment. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with operable breast cancer, FEC-P treatment statistically significantly reduced the risk of relapse compared with FEC as adjuvant therapy.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Prostaglandin E2 promotes integrin alpha Vbeta 3-dependent endothelial cell adhesion, rac-activation, and spreading through cAMP/PKA-dependent signaling.

We have recently reported that the inhibition of endothelial cell COX-2 by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs suppresses alpha(V)beta(3)- (but not alpha(5)beta(1)-) dependent Rac activation, endothelial cell spreading, migration, and angiogenesis (Dormond, O., Foletti, A., Paroz, C., and Ruegg, C. (2001) Nat. Med. 7, 1041-1047). Here we investigated the role of the COX-2 metabolites PGE(2) and TXA2 in regulating human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) adhesion and spreading. We report that PGE(2) accelerated alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated HUVEC adhesion and promoted Rac activation and cell spreading, whereas the TXA2 agonist retarded adhesion and inhibited spreading. We show that the cAMP level and the cAMP-regulated protein kinase A (PKA) activity are critical mediators of these PGE(2) effects. alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated adhesion induced a transient COX-2-dependent rise in cAMP levels, whereas the cell-permeable cAMP analogue 8-brcAMP accelerated adhesion, promoted Rac activation, and cell spreading in the presence of the COX-2 inhibitor NS-398. Pharmacological inhibition of PKA completely blocked alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated adhesion. A constitutively active Rac mutant (L61Rac) rescued alpha(V)beta(3)-dependent spreading in the presence of NS398 or, but did not accelerate adhesion, whereas a dominant negative Rac mutant (N17Rac) suppressed spreading without affecting adhesion. alpha(5)beta(1)-mediated HUVEC adhesion, Rac activation, and spreading were not affected by PGE(2), 8-brcAMP, or the inhibition of PKA. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that PGE(2) accelerates alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated endothelial cell adhesion through cAMP-dependent PKA activation and induces alpha(V)beta(3)-dependent spreading via cAMP- and PKA-dependent Rac activation and may contribute to the further understanding of the regulation of vascular integrins alpha(V)beta(3) by COX-2/PGE(2) during tumor angiogenesis and inflammation.

Integrin-mediated adhesion and soluble ligand binding stabilize COX-2 protein levels in endothelial cells by inducing expression and preventing degradation.

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), a key enzyme in prostaglandin synthesis, is highly expressed during inflammation and cellular transformation and promotes tumor progression and angiogenesis. We have previously demonstrated that endothelial cell COX-2 is required for integrin alphaVbeta3-dependent activation of Rac-1 and Cdc-42 and for endothelial cell spreading, migration, and angiogenesis (Dormond, O., Foletti, A., Paroz, C., and Ruegg, C. (2001) Nat. Med. 7, 1041-1047; Dormond, O., Bezzi, M., Mariotti, A., and Ruegg, C. (2002) J. Biol. Chem. 277, 45838-45846). In this study, we addressed the question of whether integrin-mediated cell adhesion may regulate COX-2 expression in endothelial cells. We report that cell detachment from the substrate caused rapid degradation of COX-2 protein in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) independent of serum stimulation. This effect was prevented by broad inhibition of cellular proteinases and by neutralizing lysosomal activity but not by inhibiting the proteasome. HUVEC adhesion to laminin, collagen I, fibronectin, or vitronectin induced rapid COX-2 protein expression with peak levels reached within 2 h and increased COX-2-dependent prostaglandin E2 production. In contrast, nonspecific adhesion to poly-L-lysine was ineffective in inducing COX-2 expression. Furthermore, the addition of matrix proteins in solution promoted COX-2 protein expression in suspended or poly-L-lysine-attached HUVEC. Adhesion-induced COX-2 expression was strongly suppressed by pharmacological inhibition of c-Src, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase, p38, extracellular-regulated kinase 1/2, and, to a lesser extent, protein kinase C and by the inhibition of mRNA or protein synthesis. In conclusion, this work demonstrates that integrin-mediated cell adhesion and soluble integrin ligands contribute to maintaining COX-2 steady-state levels in endothelial cells by the combined prevention of lysosomal-dependent degradation and the stimulation of mRNA synthesis involving multiple signaling pathways.

NSAIDs inhibit alpha V beta 3 integrin-mediated and Cdc42/Rac-dependent endothelial-cell spreading, migration and angiogenesis.

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), a key enzyme in arachidonic acid metabolism, is overexpressed in many cancers. Inhibition of COX-2 by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduces the risk of cancer development in humans and suppresses tumor growth in animal models. The anti-cancer effect of NSAIDs seems to involve suppression of tumor angiogenesis, but the underlying mechanism is not completely understood. Integrin alpha V beta 3 is an adhesion receptor critically involved in mediating tumor angiogenesis. Here we show that inhibition of endothelial-cell COX-2 by NSAIDs suppresses alpha V beta 3-dependent activation of the small GTPases Cdc42 and Rac, resulting in inhibition of endothelial-cell spreading and migration in vitro and suppression of fibroblast growth factor-2-induced angiogenesis in vivo. These results establish a novel functional link between COX-2, integrin alpha V beta 3 and Cdc42-/Rac-dependent endothelial-cell migration. Moreover, they provide a rationale to the understanding of the anti-angiogenic activity of NSAIDs.

Effect of n-3 fatty acids on cerebral markers and the inflammatory response in sepsis

Introduction ICM+ software encapsulates our 20 years' experience in brain monitoring. It collects data from a variety of bedside monitors and produces time trends of parameters defi ned using confi gurable mathematical formulae. To date it is being used in nearly 40 clinical research centres worldwide. We present its application for continuous monitoring of cerebral autoregulation using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Methods Data from multiple bedside monitors are processed by ICM+ in real time using a large selection of signal processing methods. These include various time and frequency domain analysis functions as well as fully customisable digital fi lters. The fi nal results are displayed in a variety of ways including simple time trends, as well as time window based histograms, cross histograms, correlations, and so forth. All this allows complex information from bedside monitors to be summarized in a concise fashion and presented to medical and nursing staff in a simple way that alerts them to the development of various pathological processes. Results One hundred and fi fty patients monitored continuously with NIRS, arterial blood pressure (ABP) and intracranial pressure (ICP), where available, were included in this study. There were 40 severely headinjured adult patients, 27 SAH patients (NCCU, Cambridge); 60 patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass (John Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore) and 23 patients with sepsis (University Hospital, Basel). In addition, MCA fl ow velocity (FV) was monitored intermittently using transcranial Doppler. FV-derived and ICP-derived pressure reactivity indices (PRx, Mx), as well as NIRS-derived reactivity indices (Cox, Tox, Thx) were calculated and showed signifi cant correlation with each other in all cohorts. Errorbar charts showing reactivity index PRx versus CPP (optimal CPP chart) as well as similar curves for NIRS indices versus CPP and ABP were also demonstrated. Conclusions ICM+ software is proving to be a very useful tool for enhancing the battery of available means for monitoring cerebral vasoreactivity and potentially facilitating autoregulation guided therapy. Complexity of data analysis is also hidden inside loadable profi les, thus allowing investigators to take full advantage of validated protocols including advanced processing formulas.

Helical tomotherapy in the treatment of anal canal cancer: 3-year clinical experience

Objective: To report a single-center experience treating patients with squamous- cell carcinoma of the anal canal using helical Tomotherapy (HT) and concurrent chemotherapy (CT).Materials/Methods: From October 2007 to February 2011, 55 patients were treated with HT and concurrent CT (5-fluorouracil/capecitabin and mitomycin) for anal squamous-cell carcinoma. All patients underwent computed- tomography-based treatment planning, with pelvic and inguinal nodes receiving 36 Gy in 1.8 Gy/fraction. Following a planned 1-week break, primary tumor site and involved nodes were boosted to a total dose 59.4 Gy in 1.8 Gy/fraction. Dose-volume histograms of several organs at risk (OAR; bladder, small intestine, rectum, femoral heads, penile bulb, external genitalia) were assessed in terms of conformal avoidance. All toxicity was scored according to the CTCAE, v.3.0. HT plans and treatment were implemented using the Tomotherapy, Inc. software and hardware. For dosimetric comparisons, 3D RT and/or IMRT plans were also computed for some of the patients using the CMS planning system, for treatment with 6-18 MV photons and/or electrons with suitable energies from a Siemens Primus linear accelerator equipped with a multileaf collimator.Locoregional control and survival curves were compared with the log-rank test, and multivariate analysis by the Cox model.Results: With 360-degree-of-freedom beam projection, HT has an advantage over other RT techniques (3D or 5-field step-and-shot IMRT). There is significant improvement over 3D or 5-field IMRT plans in terms of dose conformity around the PTV, and dose gradients are steeper outside the target volume, resulting in reduced doses to OARs. Using HT, acute toxicity was acceptable, and seemed to be better than historical standards.Conclusions: Our results suggest that HT combined with concurrent CT for anal cancer is effective and tolerable. Compared to 3D RT or 5-field step-andshot IMRT, there is better conformity around the PTV, and better OAR sparing.

Cox-2 e sua associação com fatores prognósticos e resposta à quimioterapia primária em pacientes com câncer de mama

OBJETIVO: Avaliar em pacientes com câncer de mama a expressão imunoistoquímica da cox-2 antes da quimioterapia primária com 5-fluorouracil, epirrubicina e ciclofosfamida (FEC) e a associação desta com tamanho inicial do tumor, estado linfonodal, receptores hormonais, expressão da Her-2 e com a resposta clínica e anatomopatológica. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo com 41 mulheres portadoras do diagnóstico histopatológico de carcinoma ductal de mama. Foram submetidas à quimioterapia primária com esquema FEC (5-fluorouracil, epirrubicina e ciclofosfamida) na dosagem de 500mg/m2, 75mg/m2 e 500 mg/m2, respectivamente. Os critérios de inclusão foram intervalo etário entre 30 e 70 anos, estadiamento II a IIIA, após comprovação da ausência de metástase, tumor primário de mama, único e unilateral, tipo histológico ductal invasivo e ausência de cardiopatia e gestação. Para avaliação da expressão da proteína Her 2 neuutilizaram-se anticorpos monoclonais de coelho. Para visibilizar a expressão da proteína cox-2 utilizaram-se anticorpos policlonais obtidos do soro de cabras. A avaliação da resposta clínica ao tratamento foi realizada por exame físico mensurando-se o maior eixo tumoral por paquímetro. As medidas foram realizadas à admissão e após os ciclos de quimioterapia primária. Após três sessões quimioterápicas com intervalos de 21 dias realizou-se o procedimento cirúrgico. Adotaram-se os critérios do RECIST. Após a operação foi avaliada a resposta anatomopatológica local, sendo considerada completa quando da ausência de neoplasia invasiva e do componente in situ. Na avaliação imumoistoquímica para os receptores de estrogênio utilizaram-se estrogen receptor NCL-ER6F11 e para progesterona, progesterone receptor, NCL-PGR-312 considerando positiva quando da coloração em 10% ou mais das células tumorais. RESULTADOS: A distribuição segundo estadiamento clínico UICC verificaram-se seis no estádio IIA (14,6%), 22 no estádio IIB (53,6%) e 13 estádio IIIA (31,8%). A avaliação clínica inicial do maior eixo tumoral variou de 2,5 a 15 cm e mediana de 5 cm. Foram identificadas 14 pacientes (34,1%) com estado linfonodal negativo e 27 positivo (65,9%). Observou-se que 19 (46,3%) apresentavam-se no menacme e 22 (53,6%) na menopausa. CONCLUSÃO: Houve associação da expressão da cox-2 à fatores de pior prognóstico no câncer de mama como estado linfonodal positivo, receptores hormonais negativos e expressão da Her-2.

Korkokäyrän mallintaminen: tarkastelussa Cox-Ingersoll-Ross -malli

Korot ovat erittäin tärkeässä osassa kaikessa taloudellisessa toiminnassa ja tästä syystä niiden kehitystä seurataan mielenkiinnolla. Yksi keino korkojen kehityksen tutkimiseen on rahoitusmarkkinoilla havaittavan korkokäyrän tarkastelu. Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on tarkastella Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-mallin soveltuvuutta korkokäyrän empiriseen mallintamiseen. Tässä tutkielmassa Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-malli estimoidaan pienimmän neliösumman – ja suurimman uskottavuuden –menetelmillä. Tutkimuksen datana käytetään 3 kuukauden euribor-korkojen ja Saksan valtion 3 kuukauden mittaisen joukkolainan päivätason tuottoja kolmelta eri vuoden mittaiselta periodilta. Mallin avulla estimoituja korkokäyriä verrataan samojen periodien lopussa rahoitusmarkkinoilla realisoituneisiin korkokäyriin. Estimoinnin tulosten perusteella Cox-Ingersoll- Ross-malli ei sovi varauksitta korkokäyrän mallintamiseen. Pienimmän neliösumman –menetelmän diagnostisista tarkastuksista käy ilmi, että menetelmä ei ole sopiva mallin estimoimiseen. Suurimman uskottavuuden –estimoinnin avulla estimoidut korkokäyrät eroavat kaikissa paitsi yhdessä tapauksessa melko selvästi realisoituneista korkokäyristä. Tutkielman tuloksissa on selviä yhtymäkohtia aiempien empiristen tutkimusten tuloksiin. Varsinkin mallin odotusarvohakuisuutta (mean reversion) kuvaavan parametrin estimoinnissa ilmenee epävarmuutta, mikä vaikuttaa koko mallin toimintaan. Sama tulos ilmenee myös aiemmista tutkimuksista, osassa jopa kyseenalaistetaan koko ilmiön olemassaolo. Tutkielman tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että yhden muuttujan Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-malli ei varauksitta sovellu korkokäyrän empiriseen mallintamiseen. Todennäköisiä syitä tähän ovat mallin tekemät epärealistiset taustaoletukset sekä se, että tarkasteluperiodien aikana Eurooppa kärsi velkakriisistä, mikä kevensi Euroopan keskuspankin rahapolitiikkaa ja alensi korkotasoa. Tämä seikka vaikuttaa eri periodien tulosten vertailukelpoisuuteen. Tutkielman johtopäätöksenä on, että yhden muuttujan mallien sijaan korkokäyrän mallintamisessa tulisi keskittyä 3 muuttujan malleihin. Tällöin jokaiselle korkokäyrän elementille: taso, kulmakerroin ja konveksisuus saataisiin oma muuttujansa. Tämä helpottaisi myös korkokäyrän volatiliteetin mallintamisessa, mikä osoittautuu ongelmalliseksi vain yhtä muuttujaa käytettäessä.