Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Three essays on entrepreneurial motivation, entry, exit and monetary rewards

This dissertation analyzes rewards and motivations of self-employment. In light of recent research contributions of Barton Hamilton (2000), which find entrepreneurship not as financially rewarding as wage work, my dissertation attempts to both verify and explain this claim. The first essay proposes a theoretical model of evolution of erroneous earnings expectations on part of a nascent entrepreneur. Inability to observe, survey, and take into account all of the returns to entrepreneurship prior to business entry creates a biased set of beliefs on part of the potential entrants. Using Bayesian learning, a nascent entrepreneur starting out with correct perception of profit distribution arrives at erroneous beliefs by incorporating limited information collected from existing businesses. An observed distribution of surviving businesses would exhibit higher earnings because of previous, unobserved, business failure entrepreneur get an overly positive view of her profit potential. Hence, the chapter offers a unique method of modeling overconfidence. The second essay undertakes dynamic empirical comparison of earnings received by business owners and their wage counterparts. Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) I examine both short and long run returns to entrepreneurship comparing theses rewards to wage earners returns. I pay particular attention to transitions into and out of business ownership. I estimate entire earnings distribution. To characterize dynamic aspect of changes to individuals’ earnings I split the income distribution into five income quintiles and follow survey participants over the period of seven years. I find that period-to-period transitions to be Markovian. I find business tenure to be short, business ownership is costly in the short and rewarding in the long run. The third essay considered different reporting schemes applied to the self-employed. It is another empirical investigation of entrepreneurial earning uses Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). I find entrepreneurs while reporting lower than wage workers earnings enjoy significant consumption premiums. I observe evidence of income underreporting by entrepreneurs. This finding suggests a need for better earning comparison metrics and proposes to use consumption rather than income metrics for future comparisons.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

The failure and the future of accounting: Strategy, stakeholders, and business value

Book Review: The failure and the future of accounting: Strategy, stakeholders, and business value, by David Hatherly, Farnham, Gower Publishing, 2013, 222 pp., £55 (paperback), ISBN 978-1-4094-5354-3

The impact of staff empowerment and communication style on customer evaluations: The special case of service failure

Empowering front-line staff to deal with service failures has been proposed as a method of recovering from service breakdown and ensuring greater customer satisfaction. However, no empirical study has investigated consumer responses to empowerment strategies. This research investigates the effect on customer satisfaction and service quality of two employee characteristics: the degree to which the employee is empowered (full, limited, and none), and the employee's communication style (accommodative - informal and personal, and underaccommodative-formal and impersonal). These employee characteristics are studied within the context of service failures. Subjects were shown videotaped service scenarios, and asked to complete satisfaction and service quality ratings. Results revealed that the fully empowered employee produced more customer satisfaction than the other conditions, but only when the service provider used an accommodating style of communication. Fully empowered and nonempowered employees were not judged differently when an underaccommodating style of communication was adopted. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Business article: M&A as the Portuguese route to Brazil

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Plataforma de suporte à decisão médica para transplante de órgãos baseada em Business Intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Informática Médica)

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Business Models in OER, a Contingency Approach

We will present an analysis of data from a literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts on OER, to identify different aspects of OER business models and to establish how the success of the OER initiatives is measured. The results collected thus far show that two different business models for OER initiatives exist, but no data on their success or failure is published. We propose a framework for measuring success of OER initiatives.

Financial constraints and the failure of innovation projects

Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints.

Business Development Efforts and Performance Improvements in SMEs Case Study of Business Development Projects Implemented in SME

Under the circumstances of the increasing market pressure, enterprises try to improve their competitive position by development efforts, and a business development project is one tool for that. There are not many answers to the question of how the development projects launched to improve the business performance in SMEs have succeeded. Theacademic interest in the business development project success has mainly focused on projects implemented in larger organisations rather than in SMEs. The previous studies on the business success of SMEs have mainly focused on new business ventures rather than on existing SMEs. However, nowadays a large number of business development projects are undertaken in existing SMEs, where they can pose a great challenge. This study focuses on business development success in SMEs thathave already established their business. The objective of the present study is to gain a deep understanding on business development project success in the SME-context and to identify the dimensions and factors affecting the project success. Further, the aim is to clarify how the business development projects implemented in SMEs have affected their performance. The empirical evidence is based on multiple case study. This study builds a framework for a generic theory of business development success in the SME-context, based on literature from the areas ofproject and change management, entrepreneurship and small business management, as well as performance measurement, and on empirical evidence from SMES. The framework consists of five success dimensions: entrepreneurial, project preparation, change management, project management and project success. The framework provides a systematic way for analysing the business development project and its impact on the performance and on the performing company. This case evidence indicates that successful business development projects have a balanced, high performance concerning all the dimensions. Good performance in one dimension is not enoughfor the project success, but it gives a good ground for the other dimensions. The other way round, poor performance in one success dimension affects the others, leading to poor performance of the project. In the SME-context the business development project success seems to be dependent on several interrelated dimensions and factors. Success in one area leads to success in other areas, and so creates an upward success spiral. Failure in one area seems to lead to failure in other areas, creating a downward failure spiral. The study indicates that the internal business development projects have affected the SMEs' performance widely also on areas and functions not initially targeted. The implications cover all thesuccess categories: the project efficiency, the impact on the customer, the business success and the future potentiality. With successful cases, the success tends to spread out to areas and functions not mentioned as the project goals, andwith unsuccessful cases the failure seems to spread out widely to the SMEs' other functions. This study also indicates that the most important key factors for successful business development project implementation are the strength of intention, business ability, knowledge, motivation and participation of the employees, as well as adequate and well-timed training provided to the employees.