989 resultados para Binomial Distribution


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There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

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Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

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The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

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The Ca2+-activated K+ channel in endocrine cells is responsible for membrane hyperpolarization and rhythmic firing of action potentials. The probability of opening of this channel is sensitive to intracellular-free Ca2+ concentration. In this study we have identified one such large conductance Ca2+-activated K+ channel in alpha T3-1 pituitary gonadotroph cell. This channel is ohmic with a unit conductance of 170 pS in symmetrical KCl (135 mM) and its current reverses near zero millivolts. When more than one channel is present in the patch membrane they open and close independent of each other, exhibiting no cooperativity between them as expected of a binomial distribution. The regulatory mechanism of this channel in modulating hormone secretion from alpha T3-1 gonadotroph cells is indicated.

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Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.

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The frequency distributions of the parasitic copepod Sinergasilus polycolpus were examined in silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix and bighead carp Aristichthys nobilis during a disease outbreak of the 2 species of fish in a reservoir in China. The mean abundance of the copepod was positively related with host length and age, and the overdispersion of the copepod in both silver and bighead carp was fitted well with negative binomial distribution. Although parasite-induced host mortality was observed, a peaked age-parasite abundance curve was not detected in the present parasite-host system. It is also proposed that this peaked age-abundance curve is unlikely to be observed in its natural host populations.

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Seasonal population dynamics of parasitic copepods in the genus Sinergasilus on fanned silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, farmed bighead carp Aristichthys nobilis, and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idellus were investigated in China. Changes in prevalence and abundance were seasonal with higher levels observed in summer. Reproduction of the copepods occurs from spring to early autumn as indicated by the higher ratio of gravid copepods. The frequency distribution of Sinergasilus polycolpus and S. major in their host populations can be fitted well with negative binomial distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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本文通过对高海拔两栖类西藏齿突蟾(Scutiger boulengeri)蝌蚪在实验室特定低温条件下的冷适应微空间行为分布的动态变化分析、温度耐受性实验及在不同适应温度的乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)同工酶的酶量与活性比较分析, 探讨了高海拔两栖类蝌蚪的部分冷适应策略。 西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪在不同温度的行为分布是一连续、动态过程,需用多种检验方法综合利用才能进行判断;在15℃, 除低海拔分布的西藏齿突蟾种群外所有实验物种蝌蚪均符合负二项分布、NeymanⅡ型分布;在10℃, 高海拔两栖类蝌蚪均符合负二项分布、NeymanⅡ型分布;在5℃、0℃低温时,高海拔两栖类不同分组的西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪的负二项分布、NeymanⅡ型分布均呈现明显差异, 这可能与高海拔两栖类蝌蚪在低温条件下通过不断地改变其行为分布方式来避免自身被冻伤有关。野外观察表明:高海拔两栖类蝌蚪常选择与流动河水相连的静水水体这种微生境中生存, 蝌蚪应对环境温度极端变化会不断改变其行为分布方式来选择最佳生存温度以避免极端高、低温对自身身体的伤害, 这种对微生境的利用能力对高海拔两栖类蝌蚪耐受极端环境温度的变化极其重要。 两栖类蝌蚪的温度耐受性实验表明不同的驯化温度可以改变西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪、两栖类仙琴水蛙蝌蚪的最适温度、逃避温度,并具有显著影响。 随着驯化温度5℃、10℃逐渐升高, 其最适温度、逃避温度也在一定范围内升高,但驯化温度对低海拔的仙琴水蛙蝌蚪的最适温度、逃避温度的改变效应大于高海拔的西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪的改变效应, 仙琴水蛙蝌蚪对温度的耐受范围、最适温度和逃避温度的ARRS值都大于西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪, 这说明仙琴水蛙蝌蚪对环境温度变化的适应能力大于西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪。 高海拔地区不同分组的两栖类蝌蚪, 在0℃适应温度时, LDH5条带的酶相对含量最高,而在5℃、10℃、15℃适应温度时,LDH5条带的酶相对含量明显都降低, 这表明酵解作用是高海拔两栖类蝌蚪的一些组织在低温﹑缺氧环境中的重要供能方式。高海拔两栖类蝌蚪同一分组的LDH总酶活性总是表现为10℃适应温度的总酶活性最高,而对低海拔的两栖类蝌蚪则是0℃适应温度的总酶活性最高, 这说明高海拔两栖类蝌蚪的LDH同工酶A、B两亚基基因活性在10℃时最高, 而低海拔两栖类蝌蚪的LDH同工酶A、B两亚基基因活性在0℃时最高。同时发现在15℃适应温度组的高海拔两栖类蝌蚪的LDH电泳图谱都有第6条带,有可能由LDH - C亚基组成, 对高海拔两栖类蝌蚪的LDH - C亚基只在15℃适应温度下才表达的机理还有待进一步的研究。 高海拔两栖类西藏齿突蟾蝌蚪通过行为分布方式的改变来选择最佳的生存温度, 这种温度选择过程与野外特定的微生境的存在密切相关, 现在由于人类对河道的不合理利用正在导致高海拔两栖类蝌蚪赖以生存的这种微生境逐渐消失, 这种微生境的消失将加速高海拔的两栖类种群数量衰退的进程。高海拔两栖类物种蝌蚪在低温(0℃)上表现出的同工酶多谱带说明,其A、B两亚基都有所表达,及其参与代谢的方式也是正常的,而低海拔两栖类物种蝌蚪只有A亚基表达的LDH5存在,因此其主要参与酵解过程,这种通过动物自身生理代谢方式的改变来适应极端环境温度条件的变化是高海拔两栖类蝌蚪能适应低温环境的重要策略。但高海拔物种的适应温度变化范围显著小于低海拔物种,对环境温度的变化适应能力有限,特别是对高温区域,因此全球气候变化可能对高海拔物种影响更为显著。 The partly cold-adaptation stratagem of the high altitude amphibian tadpole were researched in the laboratory by analyzing the high altitude amphibian tadpole of Scutiger boulengeri mainly on endpoints related to the dynamic variation of the micro-spatial behavior distribution patterns, the experiment of the temperature tolerance, and the enzyme content and activity of the lactic acid dehydrogenase(LDH) isozyme in special temperature condition. The behavior distribution of the Scutiger boulengeri tadpole is continuous and variable, but it can be figured out by multple testing ways. At 15℃, all of the experiment amphibian tadpoles behavior distribution fit both for the negative binomial distribution and NeymanⅡtype distribution except for the low altitude Scutiger boulengeri tadpoles. At 10℃, all of the high altitude amphibian tadpoles behavior distribution fit both for the negative binomial distribution and NeymanⅡtype distribution. At lower temperature, 5℃ and 0℃, the high altitude amphibian tadpoles of the Scutiger boulengeri at different groups behavior distribution fit for or don’t fit for behavior distribution respectively. It is denoted that the high altitude amphibian tadpoles probably avoid frostbiting by varying the behavior distribution patterns at low temperature condition. The high altitude amphibian tadpoles often actively select the special microhabitat which has the connected still water body and the flowing water body in the wild. It is important that tadpoles can endure the extreme temperature variety in this kind of microhabitat, because tadpoles can be better survival through select temperature condition through migrating in these kinds of microhabitats by varying their own behavior distribution patterns. Different acclimation temperature causes the significant change of preferred temperature(PT)、 avoiding temperature(AT) both in high altitude amphibian Scutiger boulengeri tadpoles and in low altitude amphibian Rana daunchina tadpoles in the temperature endurance experiment. With the acclimation temperature growing from 5℃ to 10℃. the PT and the AT of them would be uprise to some extent, but the effect of acclimation temperature on the PT and the AT of the tadpoles of Rana daunchina is more significant than the ones on the tadpoles of Scutiger boulengeri, at the same, the effects on the temperature endurance range, the ARRs of the tadpoles of Rana daunchina would be stronger than the ones on the tadpoles of Scutiger boulengeri. It is implied that the adaptation ability of tadpoles of Rana daunchina to the surroundings temperature alternation preferred to tadpoles of Scutiger boulengeri. At 0℃ acclimation temperature, the LDH5 enzyme comparative content of the high altitude amphibian tadpoles at different groups was highest, but it becomes lower at 5℃、10℃、15℃ acclimation temperature. It indicated that the alcoholysis role was the important ways of applying energy for special tissue of the high altitude amphibian tadpoles in low-temperature and low-oxygen condition. The total enzyme activity of the LDH of the high altitude amphibian tadpoles in the same group always keeps the highest at 10℃ acclimation temperature, but the low altitude amphibian tadpoles’ was maximum at 0℃. It was denoted that the gene activity of LDH -A and LDH – B submit was highest at 10℃ acclimation temperature for the high altitude amphibian tadpoles, but the low altitude amphibian tadpoles’ was maximum at 0℃. Meanwhile, the LDH electrophoretogram of the high altitude amphibian tadpoles always composed of 6 stripes at 15℃ acclimation temperature,the extra stripe probably was composed by LDH-C submit。It is unknown why LDH-C expresses only under high temperature。. The high altitude amphibian tadpoles can select the most optimal temperature by changing their behavior distribution patterns ceaselessly, but this course of selecting the most suitable temperature correlated with the special microhabitat in the wild closely. Nowadays, this kind of microhabitat which the high altitude amphibian tadpoles rely on are lossing gradually for human being exploit the riverway unreasonably. The disappearing of the microhabitat would accelerate the decline of the high altitude amphibian population. Compare to one band of LDH5, which only composed by the LDH-A submit, presents in the low altitude amphibian at 0℃, the five bands which composed by the LDH-A and LDH-B are checked out, this means the species which occurred in the highland is more adaptable to the low temperature. It is an important stratagem for the high altitude amphibian tadpoles adapt to the limited low temperature depends on the animal energy metabolism change.However, this kind of adaption is restricted, the adaption range to the temperature is much norrow in the high altitude amphibian than in the low one, especially for the high temperature side. The global climate change will be more serious for the high altitude species.

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The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.

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Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

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Contexte - La variation interindividuelle de la réponse aux corticostéroïdes (CS) est un problème important chez les patients atteints de maladies inflammatoires d’intestin. Ce problème est bien plus accentué chez les enfants avec la prévalence de la corticodépendance extrêmement (~40 %) élevée. La maladie réfractaire au CS a des répercussions sur le développement et le bien-être physique et psychologique des patients et impose des coûts médicaux élevés, particulièrement avec la maladie active comparativement à la maladie en rémission, le coût étant 2-3 fois plus élevé en ambulatoire et 20 fois plus élevé en hôpital. Il est ainsi primordial de déterminer les marqueurs prédictifs de la réponse aux CS. Les efforts précédents de découvrir les marqueurs cliniques et démographiques ont été équivoques, ce qui souligne davantage le besoin de marqueurs moléculaires. L'action des CS se base sur des processus complexes déterminés génétiquement. Deux gènes, le ABCB1, appartenant à la famille des transporteurs transmembraneaux, et le NR3C1, encodant le récepteur glucocorticoïde, sont des éléments importants des voies métaboliques. Nous avons postulé que les variations dans ces gènes ont un rôle dans la variabilité observée de la réponse aux CS et pourraient servir en tant que les marqueurs prédictifs. Objectifs - Nous avons visé à: (1) examiner le fardeau de la maladie réfractaire aux CS chez les enfants avec la maladie de Crohn (MC) et le rôle des caractéristiques cliniques et démographiques potentiellement liés à la réponse; (2) étudier l'association entre les variantes d'ADN de gène ABCB1 et la réponse aux CS; (3) étudier les associations entre les variantes d'ADN de gène NR3C1 et la réponse aux CS. Méthodes - Afin d’atteindre ces objectifs, nous avons mené une étude de cohorte des patients recrutés dans deux cliniques pédiatriques tertiaires de gastroentérologie à l’Ottawa (CHEO) et à Montréal (HSJ). Les patients avec la MC ont été diagnostiqués avant l'âge de 18 ans selon les critères standard radiologiques, endoscopiques et histopathologiques. La corticorésistance et la corticodépendance ont été définies en adaptant les critères reconnus. L’ADN, acquise soit du sang ou de la salive, était génotypée pour des variations à travers de gènes ABCB1 et NR3C1 sélectionnées à l’aide de la méthodologie de tag-SNP. La fréquence de la corticorésistance et la corticodépendance a été estimée assumant une distribution binomiale. Les associations entre les variables cliniques/démographiques et la réponse aux CS ont été examinées en utilisant la régression logistique en ajustant pour des variables potentielles de confusion. Les associations entre variantes génétiques de ABCB1 et NR3C1 et la réponse aux CS ont été examinées en utilisant la régression logistique assumant différents modèles de la transmission. Les associations multimarqueurs ont été examinées en utilisant l'analyse de haplotypes. Les variantes nongénotypées ont été imputées en utilisant les données de HAPMAP et les associations avec SNPs imputés ont été examinées en utilisant des méthodes standard. Résultats - Parmi 645 patients avec la MC, 364 (56.2%) ont reçu CS. La majorité de patients étaient des hommes (54.9 %); présentaient la maladie de l’iléocôlon (51.7%) ou la maladie inflammatoire (84.6%) au diagnostic et étaient les Caucasiens (95.6 %). Huit pourcents de patients étaient corticorésistants et 40.9% - corticodépendants. Le plus bas âge au diagnostic (OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.03-3.01, p=0.040), la maladie cœxistante de la région digestive supérieure (OR=1.35, 95% CI: 95% CI: 1.06-3.07, p=0.031) et l’usage simultané des immunomodulateurs (OR=0.35, 95% CI: 0.16-0.75, p=0.007) ont été associés avec la corticodépendance. Un total de 27 marqueurs génotypés à travers de ABCB1 (n=14) et NR3C1 (n=13) ont été en l'Équilibre de Hardy-Weinberg, à l’exception d’un dans le gène NR3C1 (rs258751, exclu). Dans ABCB1, l'allèle rare de rs2032583 (OR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.34-0.95, p=0.029) et génotype hétérozygote (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.28-0.95 p=0.035) ont été négativement associes avec la dépendance de CS. Un haplotype à 3 marqueurs, comprenant le SNP fonctionnel rs1045642 a été associé avec la dépendance de CS (p empirique=0.004). 24 SNPs imputés introniques et six haplotypes ont été significativement associés avec la dépendance de CS. Aucune de ces associations n'a cependant maintenu la signification après des corrections pour des comparaisons multiples. Dans NR3C1, trois SNPs: rs10482682 (OR=1.43, 95% CI: 0.99-2.08, p=0.047), rs6196 (OR=0.55, 95% CI: 0.31-0.95, p=0.024), et rs2963155 (OR=0.64, 95% CI: 0.42-0.98, p=0.039), ont été associés sous un modèle additif, tandis que rs4912911 (OR=0.37, 95% CI: 0.13-1.00, p=0.03) et rs2963156 (OR=0.32, 95% CI: 0.07-1.12, p=0.047) - sous un modèle récessif. Deux haplotypes incluant ces 5 SNPs (AAACA et GGGCG) ont été significativement (p=0.006 et 0.01 empiriques) associés avec la corticodépendance. 19 SNPs imputés ont été associés avec la dépendance de CS. Deux haplotypes multimarqueurs (p=0.001), incluant les SNPs génotypés et imputés, ont été associés avec la dépendance de CS. Conclusion - Nos études suggèrent que le fardeau de la corticodépendance est élevé parmi les enfants avec le CD. Les enfants plus jeunes au diagnostic et ceux avec la maladie coexistante de la région supérieure ainsi que ceux avec des variations dans les gènes ABCB1 et NR3C1 étaient plus susceptibles de devenir corticodépendants.

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