Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data. Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositional data have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categorical data. This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986) in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of what parameterization to use

Predictive Value Of Phase I Trials For Safety In Later Trials And Final Approved Dose: Analysis Of 61 Approved Cancer Drugs.

Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

The synthetic Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite peptide PfCS102 as a malaria vaccine candidate: a randomized controlled phase I trial.

BACKGROUND: Fully efficient vaccines against malaria pre-erythrocytic stage are still lacking. The objective of this dose/adjuvant-finding study was to evaluate the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of a vaccine candidate based on a peptide spanning the C-terminal region of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (PfCS102) in malaria naive adults. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Thirty-six healthy malaria-naive adults were randomly distributed into three dose blocks (10, 30 and 100 microg) and vaccinated with PfCS102 in combination with either Montanide ISA 720 or GSK proprietary Adjuvant System AS02A at days 0, 60, and 180. Primary end-point (safety and reactogenicity) was based on the frequency of adverse events (AE) and of abnormal biological safety tests; secondary-end point (immunogenicity) on P. falciparum specific cell-mediated immunity and antibody response before and after immunization. The two adjuvant formulations were well tolerated and their safety profile was good. Most AEs were local and, when systemic, involved mainly fatigue and headache. Half the volunteers in AS02A groups experienced severe AEs (mainly erythema). After the third injection, 34 of 35 volunteers developed anti-PfCS102 and anti-sporozoite antibodies, and 28 of 35 demonstrated T-cell proliferative responses and IFN-gamma production. Five of 22 HLA-A2 and HLA-A3 volunteers displayed PfCS102 specific IFN-gamma secreting CD8(+) T cell responses. Responses were only marginally boosted after the 3(rd) vaccination and remained stable for 6 months. For both adjuvants, the dose of 10 microg was less immunogenic in comparison to 30 and 100 microg that induced similar responses. AS02A formulations with 30 microg or 100 microg PfCS102 induced about 10-folds higher antibody and IFN-gamma responses than Montanide formulations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: PfCS102 peptide was safe and highly immunogenic, allowing the design of more advanced trials to test its potential for protection. Two or three immunizations with a dose of 30 microg formulated with AS02A appeared the most appropriate choice for such studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Swissmedic.ch 2002 DR 1227.

Rituximab, bendamustine, and lenalidomide in patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma not eligible for high-dose chemotherapy or anthracycline-based therapy: phase I results of the SAKK 38/08 trial.

This phase I trial was designed to develop a new effective and well-tolerated regimen for patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma not eligible for front-line anthracycline-based chemotherapy or aggressive second-line treatment strategies. The combination of rituximab (375 mg/m(2) on day 1), bendamustine (70 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 2), and lenalidomide was tested with a dose escalation of lenalidomide at three dose levels (10, 15, or 20 mg/day) using a 3 + 3 design. Courses were repeated every 4 weeks. The recommended dose was defined as one level below the dose level identifying ≥2/6 patients with a dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) during the first cycle. Thirteen patients were eligible for analysis. Median age was 77 years. WHO performance status was 0 or 1 in 12 patients. The Charlson Comorbidity Index showed relevant comorbidities in all patients. Two DLTs occurred at the second dose level (15 mg/day) within the first cycle: one patient had prolonged grade 3 neutropenia, and one patient experienced grade 4 cardiac adverse event (myocardial infarction). Additional grade 3 and 4 toxicities were as follows: neutropenia (31 %), thrombocytopenia (23 %), cardiac toxicity (31 %), fatigue (15 %), and rash (15 %). The dose of lenalidomide of 10 mg/day was recommended for a subsequent phase II in combination with rituximab 375 mg/m(2) on day 1 and bendamustine 70 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 2.

Efficacy and safety of a phospholipid emulsion (GR270773) in Gram-negative severe sepsis: results of a phase II multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, dose-finding clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the survival benefit and safety profile of low-dose (850 mg/kg) and high-dose (1350 mg/kg) phospholipid emulsion vs. placebo administered as a continuous 3-day infusion in patients with confirmed or suspected Gram-negative severe sepsis. Preclinical and ex vivo studies show that lipoproteins bind and neutralize endotoxin, and experimental animal studies demonstrate protection from septic death when lipoproteins are administered. Endotoxin neutralization correlates with the amount of phospholipid in the lipoprotein particles. DESIGN: A three-arm, randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Conducted at 235 centers worldwide between September 2004 and April 2006. PATIENTS: A total of 1379 patients participated in the study, 598 patients received low-dose phospholipid emulsion, and 599 patients received placebo. The high-dose phospholipid emulsion arm was stopped, on the recommendation of the Independent Data Monitoring Committee, due to an increase in life-threatening serious adverse events at the fourth interim analysis and included 182 patients. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A 28-day all-cause mortality and new-onset organ failure. There was no significant treatment benefit for low- or high-dose phospholipid emulsion vs. placebo for 28-day all-cause mortality, with rates of 25.8% (p = .329), 31.3% (p = .879), and 26.9%, respectively. The rate of new-onset organ failure was not statistically different among groups at 26.3%, 31.3%, 20.4% with low- and high-dose phospholipid emulsion, and placebo, respectively (one-sided p = .992, low vs. placebo; p = .999, high vs. placebo). Of the subjects treated, 45% had microbiologically confirmed Gram-negative infections. Maximal changes in mean hemoglobin levels were reached on day 10 (-1.04 g/dL) and day 5 (-1.36 g/dL) with low- and high-dose phospholipid emulsion, respectively, and on day 14 (-0.82 g/dL) with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with phospholipid emulsion did not reduce 28-day all-cause mortality, or reduce the onset of new organ failure in patients with suspected or confirmed Gram-negative severe sepsis.

Rituximab, bendamustine, and lenalidomide in patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma not eligible for high-dose chemotherapy or anthracycline-based therapy: phase I results of the SAKK 38/08 trial

This phase I trial was designed to develop a new effective and well-tolerated regimen for patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma not eligible for front-line anthracycline-based chemotherapy or aggressive second-line treatment strategies. The combination of rituximab (375 mg/m(2) on day 1), bendamustine (70 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 2), and lenalidomide was tested with a dose escalation of lenalidomide at three dose levels (10, 15, or 20 mg/day) using a 3 + 3 design. Courses were repeated every 4 weeks. The recommended dose was defined as one level below the dose level identifying ≥2/6 patients with a dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) during the first cycle. Thirteen patients were eligible for analysis. Median age was 77 years. WHO performance status was 0 or 1 in 12 patients. The Charlson Comorbidity Index showed relevant comorbidities in all patients. Two DLTs occurred at the second dose level (15 mg/day) within the first cycle: one patient had prolonged grade 3 neutropenia, and one patient experienced grade 4 cardiac adverse event (myocardial infarction). Additional grade 3 and 4 toxicities were as follows: neutropenia (31 %), thrombocytopenia (23 %), cardiac toxicity (31 %), fatigue (15 %), and rash (15 %). The dose of lenalidomide of 10 mg/day was recommended for a subsequent phase II in combination with rituximab 375 mg/m(2) on day 1 and bendamustine 70 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 2.

Understanding the Continual Reassessment Method for Dose Finding Studies: An Overview for Non-Statisticians

The Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) has gained popularity since its proposal by O’Quigley et al. [1]. Many variations have been published and discussed in the statistical literature, but there has been little attention to making the design considerations accessible to non-statisticians. As a result, some clinicians or reviewers of clinical trials tend to be wary of the CRM due to safety concerns. This paper presents the CRM in a non-technical way, describing the original CRM with some of its modified versions. It also describes the specifications that define a CRM design, along with two simulated examples of CRMs for illustration.

A simulation study of the standard design, the rolling six design, the CRM, and the modified CRM in Phase I clinical trials

The Phase I clinical trial is considered the "first in human" study in medical research to examine the toxicity of a new agent. It determines the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of a new agent, i.e., the highest dose in which toxicity is still acceptable. Several phase I clinical trial designs have been proposed in the past 30 years. The well known standard method, so called the 3+3 design, is widely accepted by clinicians since it is the easiest to implement and it does not need a statistical calculation. Continual reassessment method (CRM), a design uses Bayesian method, has been rising in popularity in the last two decades. Several variants of the CRM design have also been suggested in numerous statistical literatures. Rolling six is a new method introduced in pediatric oncology in 2008, which claims to shorten the trial duration as compared to the 3+3 design. The goal of the present research was to simulate clinical trials and compare these phase I clinical trial designs. Patient population was created by discrete event simulation (DES) method. The characteristics of the patients were generated by several distributions with the parameters derived from a historical phase I clinical trial data review. Patients were then selected and enrolled in clinical trials, each of which uses the 3+3 design, the rolling six, or the CRM design. Five scenarios of dose-toxicity relationship were used to compare the performance of the phase I clinical trial designs. One thousand trials were simulated per phase I clinical trial design per dose-toxicity scenario. The results showed the rolling six design was not superior to the 3+3 design in terms of trial duration. The time to trial completion was comparable between the rolling six and the 3+3 design. However, they both shorten the duration as compared to the two CRM designs. Both CRMs were superior to the 3+3 design and the rolling six in accuracy of MTD estimation. The 3+3 design and rolling six tended to assign more patients to undesired lower dose levels. The toxicities were slightly greater in the CRMs.^

Phase I trial of DNA-hsp65 immunotherapy for advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

Considering that mycobacterial heat-shock protein 65 (hsp65) gene transfer can elicit a profound antitumoral effect, this study aimed to establish the safety, maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) and preliminary efficacy of DNA-hsp65 immunotherapy in patients with advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). For this purpose, 21 patients with unresectable and recurrent HNSCC were studied. Each patient received three ultrasound-guided injections at 21-day intervals of: 150, 600 or 400 mu g of DNA-hsp65. Toxicity was graded according to CTCAE directions. Tumor volume was measured before and after treatment using computed tomography scan. The evaluation included tumor mass variation, delayed-type hypersensitivity response and spontaneous peripheral blood mononuclear cell proliferation before and after treatment. The MTD was 400 mg per dose. DNA-hsp65 immunotherapy was well tolerated with moderate pain, edema and infections as the most frequent adverse effects. None of the patients showed clinical or laboratory alterations compatible with autoimmune reactions. Partial response was observed in 4 out of 14 patients who completed treatment, 2 of which are still alive more than 3 years after the completion of the trial. Therefore, DNA-hsp65 immunotherapy is a feasible and safe approach at the dose of 400 mg per injection in patients with HNSCC refractory to standard treatment. Further studies in a larger number of patients are needed to confirm the efficacy of this novel strategy.

PHASE I/II STUDY OF ERLOTINIB COMBINED WITH CISPLATIN AND RADIOTHERAPY IN PATIENTS WITH LOCALLY ADVANCED SQUAMOUS CELL CARCINOMA OF THE HEAD AND NECK

Purpose: Erlotinib, an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is active against head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and possibly has a synergistic interaction with chemotherapy and radiotherapy. We investigated the safety and efficacy of erlotinib added to cisplatin and radiotherapy in locally advanced HNSCC. Methods and Materials: In this Phase I/II trial 100 mg/m(2) of cisplatin was administered on Days 8, 29, and 50, and radiotherapy at 70 Gy was started on Day 8. During Phase I, the erlotinib dose was escalated (50 mg, 100 mg, and 150 mg) in consecutive cohorts of 3 patients, starting on Day 1 and continuing during radiotherapy. Dose-limiting toxicity was defined as any Grade 4 event requiring radiotherapy interruptions. Phase 11 was initiated 8 weeks after the last Phase I enrollment. Results: The study accrued 9 patients in Phase I and 28 in Phase II; all were evaluable for efficacy and safety. No dose-limiting toxicity occurred in Phase I, and the recommended Phase 11 dose was 150 mg. The most frequent nonhematologic toxicities were nausea/vomiting, dysphagia, stomatitis, xerostomia and in-field dermatitis, acneiform rash, and diarrhea. Of the 31 patients receiving a 150-mg daily dose of erlotinib, 23 (74%; 95% confidence interval, 56.8%-86.3%) had a complete response, 3 were disease free after salvage surgery, 4 had inoperable residual disease, and 1 died of sepsis during treatment. With a median 37 months` follow-up, the 3-year progression-free and overall survival rates were 61% and 72%, respectively. Conclusions: This combination appears safe, has encouraging activity, and deserves further studies in locally advanced HNSCC. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc.

Autologous non-myeloablative haemopoietic stem cell transplantation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a phase I/II study

Background Autologous non-myeloablative haemopoietic stem cell transplantation is a method to deliver intense immune suppression. We evaluated the safety and clinical outcome of autologous non-myeloablative haemopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with retapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) who had not responded to treatment with interferon beta. Methods Eligible patients had relapsing-remitting MS, attended Northwestern Memorial Hospital, and despite treatment with interferon beta had had two corticosteroid-treated relapses within the previous 12 months, or one relapse and gadolinium-enhancing lesions seen on MRI and separate from the relapse. Peripheral blood haemopoietic stem cells were mobilised with 2 g per m(2) cyclophosphamide and 10 mu g per kg per day filgrastim. The conditioning regimen for the haemopoietic stem cells was 200 mg per kg cyclophosphamide and either 20 mg alemtuzumab or 6 mg per kg rabbit antithymocyte globulin. Primary outcomes were progression-free survival and reversal of neurological disability at 3 years post-transplantation. We also sought to investigate the safety and tolerability of autologous non-myeloablative haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. Findings Between January 2003, and February, 2005, 21 patients were treated. Engraftment of white blood cells and platelets was on median day 9 (range day 8-11) and patients were discharged from hospital on mean day 11 (range day 8-13). One patient had diarrhoea due to Clostridium difficile and two patients had dermatomal zoster. Two of the 17 patients receiving alemtuzumab developed late immune thrombocytopenic purpura that remitted with standard therapy. 17 of 21 patients (81%) improved by at least 1 point on the Kurtzke expanded disability status scale (EDSS), and five patients (24%) relapsed but achieved remission after further immunosuppression. After a mean of 37 months (range 24-48 months), all patients were free from progression (no deterioration in EDSS score), and 16 were free of relapses. Significant improvements were noted in neurological disability, as determined by EDSS score (p<0.0001), neurological rating scale score (p=0.0001), paced auditory serial addition test (p=0.014), 25-foot walk (p<0.0001), and quality of life, as measured with the short form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire (p<0.0001). Interpretation Non-myeloablative autologous haemopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with relapsing-remitting MS reverses neurological deficits, but these results need to be confirmed in a randomised trial.