L'exploitation des traces dans les accidents de la circulation

Les investigations dans le milieu des accidents de la circulation sont très complexes. Elles nécessitent la mise en oeuvre d'un grand nombre de spécialités venant de domaines très différents. Si certains de ces domaines sont déjà bien exploités, d'autres demeurent encore incomplets et il arrive de nos jours d'observer des lacunes dans la pratique, auxquelles il est primordial de remédier.Ce travail de thèse, intitulé « l'exploitation des traces dans les accidents de la circulation », est issu d'une réflexion interdisciplinaire entre de multiples aspects des sciences forensiques. Il s'agit principalement d'une recherche ayant pour objectif de démontrer les avantages découlant d'une synergie entre les microtraces et l'étude de la dynamique d'un accident. Afin de donner une dimension très opérationnelle à ce travail, l'ensemble des démarches entreprises a été axé de manière à optimiser l'activité des premiers intervenants sur les lieux.Après une partie introductive et ayant trait au projet de recherche, traitant des aspects théoriques de la reconstruction d'une scène d'accident, le lecteur est invité à prendre connaissance de cinq chapitres pratiques, abordés selon la doctrine « du général au particulier ». La première étape de cette partie pratique concerne l'étude de la morphologie des traces. Des séquences d'examens sont proposées pour améliorer l'interprétation des contacts entre véhicules et obstacles impliqués dans un accident. Les mécanismes de transfert des traces de peinture sont ensuite étudiés et une série de tests en laboratoire est pratiquée sur des pièces de carrosseries automobiles. Différents paramètres sont ainsi testés afin de comprendre leur impact sur la fragilité d'un système de peinture. Par la suite, une liste de cas traités (crash-tests et cas réels), apportant des informations intéressantes sur le traitement d'une affaire et permettant de confirmer les résultats obtenus est effectuée. Il s'ensuit un recueil de traces, issu de l'expérience pratique acquise et ayant pour but d'aiguiller la recherche et le prélèvement sur les lieux. Finalement, la problématique d'une banque de données « accident », permettant une gestion optimale des traces récoltées est abordée.---The investigations of traffic accidents are very complex. They require the implementation of a large number of specialties coming from very different domains. If some of these domains are already well exploited, others remain still incomplete and it happens nowadays to observe gaps in the practice, which it is essential to remedy. This thesis, entitled "the exploitation of traces in traffic accidents", arises from a multidisciplinary reflection between the different aspects of forensic science. It is primarily a research aimed to demonstrate the benefits of synergy between microtrace evidence and accidents dynamics. To give a very operational dimension to this work, all the undertaken initiatives were centred so as to optimise the activity of the first participants on the crime scene.After an introductory part treating theoretical aspects of the reconstruction of an accident scene the reader is invited to get acquainted with five practical chapters, according to the doctrine "from general to particular". For the first stage of this practical part, the problem of the morphology of traces is approached and sequences of examinations are proposed to improve the interpretation of the contacts between vehicles and obstacles involved in an accident. Afterwards, the mechanisms of transfer of traces of paint are studied and a series of tests in laboratory is practised on pieces of automobile bodies. Various parameters are thus tested to understand their impact on the fragility of a system of paint. It follows that a list of treated cases (crash-tests and real cases) is created, allowing to bring interesting information on the treatment of a case and confirm the obtained results. Then, this work goes on with a collection of traces, stemming from the acquired experience that aims to steer the research and the taking of evidence on scenes. Finally, the practical part of this thesis ends with the problem of a database « accident », allowing an optimal management of the collected traces.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

L'habitude en matière de conduite automobile : une analyse de ses composantes et du rôle qu'elle joue dans le maintien et la régulation des comportements de conduite

« La grande majorité des accidents demeure liée aux comportements dangereux des usagers de la route ». Cet énoncé, lapidaire, fait aujourd’hui figure d’évidence au sein de la communauté des intervenants en sécurité routière. Il repose pourtant sur des prémisses discutables. Le problème le plus fondamental réside dans le fait que la recherche des dernières décennies s’est presque toute entière vouée à l’analyse des seuls aspects défaillants de la conduite (l’accident, les infractions, les erreurs et les fautes de conduite, les conducteurs à risque ou dysfonctionnels, les attitudes et traits de caractère incitant à la conduite dangereuse, etc.). Ce faisant, on a fini par oublier qu’il nous restait encore beaucoup de choses à apprendre sur le fonctionnement usuel de la conduite automobile. Comment, en effet, peut-on escompter élucider tous les rouages de la dynamique accidentelle sans avoir au préalable cerné, et bien compris, les mécanismes de la conduite « ordinaire » ? Comment peut-on parvenir à approfondir notre compréhension des comportements de conduite si l’on fait totalement abstraction de toutes les activités courantes, « normales », auxquelles se livrent les conducteurs lorsqu’ils sont au volant de leur véhicule ? C’est dans la perspective de mieux comprendre les comportements de conduite, dans leur complexité et dans leur diversité, que la présente thèse a été réalisée. Y a plus spécifiquement été examinée la question des habitudes en raison de leur prédominance dans l’activité de la conduite, mais également en raison de leur résistance, des obstacles bien concrets qu’elles sont susceptibles d’opposer à tous ceux qui tentent de modifier les comportements individuels de conduite. Des entrevues en profondeur, menées auprès de trente conducteurs et conductrices âgé(e)s de 17 à 54 ans, devaient permettre de répondre, entre autres, aux questions suivantes : De quoi sont constituées les différentes habitudes en matière de conduite automobile ? Quelle place occupent-elles dans la conduite des individus ? En quoi constituent-elles un frein au changement, à la modification des pratiques adoptées ? Quelles sont les dimensions qui participent à leur installation ? Les résultats de l’analyse ont permis de jeter les bases d’un modèle des comportements de conduite où les sensations corporelles se voient conférer un rôle des plus centraux, et où l’habitude – bien davantage caractérisée par la notion de confort que par celles d’automatisme ou de répétition – concourt non seulement à la pérennité, mais également à la régulation des conduites adoptées sur la route.

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Automobile consumer information study crash test program. Volume I. Summary report. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Economic consequences of automobile accident injuries.

Report presents results of a survey made by the Bureau of the Census and Westat Research, inc. for the Automobile Insurance and Compensation Study of the Dept. of Transportation.

A modern, scientific, simplified, step by step, safe method for teaching safety driving in the family car; a text book for behind the wheel driver training, an educational book for better, safer, smoother, driving, a method of driving to end accidents.

Mode of access: Internet.

Acidentes de trânsito causando vítimas: possível reflexo da lei seca nas internações hospitalares

Os acidentes de trânsito no Brasil se constituem em relevante problema para a área da saúde. Nesse sentido, julgou-se importante investigar qual o efeito da lei 11.705 de 19 de junho de 2008, a chamada Lei seca. A metodologia do trabalho constitui analisar os dados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS, para o Brasil, em 2008, comparando as internações nos dois semestres do ano, segundo algumas variáveis consideradas importantes. Os resultados mostraram que houve uma queda de 28,3 por cento nas internações do segundo semestre, com reflexos consideráveis em todas as variáveis estudadas. Quanto à qualidade da vítima, a maior queda ocorreu entre os ocupantes de automóvel, principalmente do sexo masculino. Em relação às idades, houve declínio em todas as faixas, destacando-se as de 40 a 59 anos e 20 a 39 anos, pela ordem. O tempo de permanência na instituição foi menor no segundo semestre,quando a mortalidade hospitalar declinou 13,6 por cento em relação ao primeiro semestre, o que significa que deixaram de morrer 917 pessoas (cerca de 5 mortes/dias). O gasto governamental para o atendimento dos feridos no segundo semestre foi 35,5 por cento menor do que no primeiro

Anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor applied to automobile industry wastewater treatment: Volumetric loading rate and feed strategy effects

This paper presents a technological viability study of wastewater treatment in an automobile industry by an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor containing immobilized biomass (AnSBBR) with a draft tube. The reactor was operated in 8-h cycles, with agitation of 400 rpm, at 30 degrees C and treating 2.0 L wastewater per cycle. Initially the efficiency and stability of the reactor were studied when supplied with nutrients and alkalinity. Removal efficiency of 88% was obtained at volumetric loading rate (VLR) of 3.09 mg COD/L day. When VLR was increased to 6.19 mg COD/L day the system presented stable operation with reduction in efficiency of 71%. In a second stage the AnSBBR was operated treating wastewater in natura, i.e., without nutrients supplementation, only with alkalinity, thereby changing feed strategy. The first strategy consisted in feeding 2.0 L batch wise (10 min), the second in feeding 1.0 L of influent batch wise (10 min) and an additional 1.0 L fed-batch wise (4 h), both dewatering 2.0 L of the effluent in 10 min. The third one maintained 1.0 L of treated effluent in the reactor, without discharging, and 1.0 L of influent was fed fed-batch wise (4 h) with dewatering 1.0 L of the effluent in 10 min. For all implemented strategies (VLR of 1.40, 2.57 and 2.61 mg COD/L day) the system presented stability and removal efficiency of approximately 80%. These results show that the AnSBBR presents operational flexibility, as the influent can be fed according to industry availability. In industrial processes this is a considerable advantage, as the influent may be prone to variations. Moreover, for all the investigated conditions the kinetic parameters were obtained from fitting a first-order model to the profiles of organic matter, total volatile acids and methane concentrations. Analysis of the kinetic parameters showed that the best strategy is feeding 1.0 L of influent batchwise (10 min) and 1.0 L fed-batch wise (4 h) in 8-h cycle. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Instrumented indentation testing of an epoxy adhesive used in automobile body assembling

Instrumented indentation has been used to investigate the mechanical properties of BETAMATE 1496 (R) Epoxy adhesive. The properties of the adhesive were analyzed by measuring its hardness and its Young`s modulus in samples extracted from six different positions of the front door of a commercial passenger vehicle in two phases of processing: after application of the adhesive in the door assembling (""pre-cured"" state) and after final cure in the painting oven (""cured"" state). Special attention was given to setting the optimal parameters (""creep"" time and unloading time step) for the instrumented indentation testing for the present application. Young`s modulus values around 1.1 +/- 0.2 GPa and hardness values around 0.15 +/- 0.05 GPa were obtained for all samples, irrespective of the variation of the indentation parameters in the testing procedure and of the relative position of the adhesive in the door frame in both states. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gases emission from soil contaminated with automobile industry residue in Brazil

Solid waste of the automobile industry containing large amounts of heavy metals might affect the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) when applied to the soil. Accumulation of inorganic chemical elements in the environment generally occurs due to human activity (industry, agriculture, mining and waste landfills). Residues from human activities may release heavy metals to the soil solution, causing toxicity to plants and other soil organisms. Heavy metals may also be adsorbed to clay minerals and/or complexed by the soil organic matter, becoming a potential source of pollutants. Not much is known about the behavior of solid wastes in tropical soil as regarded as source of greenhouse gases (GHG). The emission of GHG (CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O) was evaluated in incubated soil samples collected in an area contaminated with a solid residue from an automobile industry. Samples were randomly collected at 0 to 0.2 m (a mix of soil and residue), 0.2 to 0.4 m (only residue) and 0.4 to 0.6 m (only soil). A contiguous uncontaminated area, cultivated with sugarcane, was also sampled following the same protocol. Canonical Discriminant Analysis and Principal Component Analysis were applied to the data to evaluate the GHG emission rates. Emission rates of GHG were greater in the samples from the contaminated than the sugarcane area, particularly high during the first days of incubation. CO(2) emissions were greater in samples collected at the upper layer for both areas, while CH(4) and N(2)O emissions were similar in all samples. The emission rates of CH(4) were the most efficient variables to differentiate contaminated and uncontaminated areas.

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100 000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100 000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding,'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of a program for the prevention of traffic accidents in a Southern Brazilian city: a model for implementation in a developing country

Background: Traffic accidents constitute the main cause of death in the first decades of life. Traumatic brain injury is the event most responsible for the severity of these accidents. The SBN started an educational program for the prevention of traffic accidents, adapted from the American model ""Think First"" to the Brazilian environment, since 1995, with special effort devoted to the prevention of TBI by using seat belts and motorcycle helmets. The objective of the present study was to set up a traffic accident prevention program based on the adapted Think First and to evaluate its impact by comparing epidemiological variables before and after the beginning of the program. Methods: The program was executed in Maringa city, from September 2004 to August 2005, with educational actions targeting the entire population, especially teenagers and young adults. The program was implemented by building a network of information facilitators and multipliers inside the organized civil society, with widespread population dissemination. To measure the impact of the program, a specific software was developed for the storage and processing of the epidemiological variables. Results: The results showed a reduction of trauma severity due to traffic accidents after the execution of the program, mainly TBI. Conclusions: The adapted Think First was systematically implemented and its impact measured for the first time in Brazil, revealing the usefulness of the program for reducing trauma and TBI severity in traffic accidents through public education and representing a standardized model of implementation in a developing country. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relation between alcohol consumption and traffic violations and accidents in the region of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State

In recent years, alcohol consumption has been considered an important public health problem. Ethanol, the alcohol used in beverages, is a drug that affects the central nervous system (CNS) and impairs driving skills and co-ordination, increasing risk of deaths and injuries derived from crashes and road accidents. Consumption of alcoholic beverages is implicated with premature deaths, injuries and damages caused by motor vehicle crashes, which result in high costs to government and society. Considering that alcohol consumption is the main responsible factor for deaths and disabilities in young people, the aim of this work was to evaluate the prevalence of blood alcohol in offenders and/or fatal and non-fatal victims of traffic occurrences in the region of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, from 2005 to 2007. The results revealed that in 2134 cases investigated, blood alcohol positivity was generally found in young adults, 25-45 years old and male. The study showed the high risk of drinking and driving and the importance in establishing actions of prevention and intervention to promote the reduction in the number of traffic occurrences related to consumption of alcoholic beverages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.