Estimativas para a elasticidade-preço da demanda por produtos siderúrgicos no Brasil

Essa dissertação apresenta estimativas para a elasticidade-preço da demanda por aço no Brasil, a partir de dados agregados e desagregados da indústria siderúrgica. Os resultados das estimativas a partir do painel com dados desagregados sugerem que existe um viés de agregação nas estimativas já realizadas a partir de dados agregados, e esse viés subestimaria a elasticidade-preço do setor siderúrgico. Com a finalidade de comparar as relações entre as elasticidades-preços de curto e longo prazo foram estimados painéis heterogêneos dinâmicos, através de estimadores Mean Group (MG) e Pooled Mean Group (PMG). É importante ressaltar que, de acordo com o conhecimento do autor, este é o primeiro estudo a usar estimação em painel para estimação da elasticidade-preço da demanda por produtos siderúrgicos no Brasil, dessa forma, controlando a estimativa pela heterogeneidade entre os tipos de aço.

Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

Análise de agrupamentos dos dados de DFA oriundos de perfis elétricos de indução de poços de petróleo

The main objective of this study is to apply recently developed methods of physical-statistic to time series analysis, particularly in electrical induction s profiles of oil wells data, to study the petrophysical similarity of those wells in a spatial distribution. For this, we used the DFA method in order to know if we can or not use this technique to characterize spatially the fields. After obtain the DFA values for all wells, we applied clustering analysis. To do these tests we used the non-hierarchical method called K-means. Usually based on the Euclidean distance, the K-means consists in dividing the elements of a data matrix N in k groups, so that the similarities among elements belonging to different groups are the smallest possible. In order to test if a dataset generated by the K-means method or randomly generated datasets form spatial patterns, we created the parameter Ω (index of neighborhood). High values of Ω reveals more aggregated data and low values of Ω show scattered data or data without spatial correlation. Thus we concluded that data from the DFA of 54 wells are grouped and can be used to characterize spatial fields. Applying contour level technique we confirm the results obtained by the K-means, confirming that DFA is effective to perform spatial analysis

Análise de DFA e de agrupamento do perfil de densidade de poços de petróleo

In recent years, the DFA introduced by Peng, was established as an important tool capable of detecting long-range autocorrelation in time series with non-stationary. This technique has been successfully applied to various areas such as: Econophysics, Biophysics, Medicine, Physics and Climatology. In this study, we used the DFA technique to obtain the Hurst exponent (H) of the profile of electric density profile (RHOB) of 53 wells resulting from the Field School of Namorados. In this work we want to know if we can or not use H to spatially characterize the spatial data field. Two cases arise: In the first a set of H reflects the local geology, with wells that are geographically closer showing similar H, and then one can use H in geostatistical procedures. In the second case each well has its proper H and the information of the well are uncorrelated, the profiles show only random fluctuations in H that do not show any spatial structure. Cluster analysis is a method widely used in carrying out statistical analysis. In this work we use the non-hierarchy method of k-means. In order to verify whether a set of data generated by the k-means method shows spatial patterns, we create the parameter Ω (index of neighborhood). High Ω shows more aggregated data, low Ω indicates dispersed or data without spatial correlation. With help of this index and the method of Monte Carlo. Using Ω index we verify that random cluster data shows a distribution of Ω that is lower than actual cluster Ω. Thus we conclude that the data of H obtained in 53 wells are grouped and can be used to characterize space patterns. The analysis of curves level confirmed the results of the k-means

Un’analisi statistico – economica dell’impatto delle norme WHO su nutrizione e salute

I comportamenti nutrizionali stanno assumendo sempre maggiore rilievo all’interno delle politiche comunitarie e questo sottolinea che la dieta sta avendo, negli ultimi anni, una maggiore importanza come fattore di causa e allo stesso tempo prevenzione nella diffusione di malattie croniche come il cancro, malattie cardiovascolari, diabete, osteoporosi e disturbi dentali. Numerosi studi mostrano infatti che i tassi di obesità sono triplicati nelle ultime due decadi e si è stimato che, se i livelli di obesità continueranno a crescere allo stesso tasso del 1990, nel 2010 il numero di persone obese raggiungerà i 150 milioni tra gli adulti e i 15 milioni tra bambini e adolescenti. I governi nazionali stanno quindi cercando di risolvere questo problema, a cui sono inoltre legati alti costi nazionali, tramite l’implementazione di politiche nutrizionali. Analisi di tipo cross-section sono già state evidenziate da studiosi come Schmidhuber e Traill (2006), i quali hanno effettuato un’analisi di convergenza a livello europeo per esaminare la distanza tra le calorie immesse da 426 prodotti diversi. In quest’analisi hanno così dimostrato la presenza di una similarità distinta e crescente tra i paesi europei per quanto riguarda la composizione della dieta. Srinivasan et al. invece hanno osservato la relazione esistente tra ogni singolo prodotto alimentare consumato e le norme nutrizionali dell’ Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità (World Health Organization, WHO) Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di evidenziare il problema a livello di aggregati nutritivi e di specifiche componenti nutrizionali come zucchero, frutta e verdura e non relativamente ad ogni singolo prodotto consumato. A questo proposito ci si è basati sulla costruzione di un indicatore (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da poter misurare le distanze tra la dieta media e le raccomandazioni del WHO. Lo scopo è quindi quello di riuscire a quantificare il fenomeno del peggioramento della dieta in diverse aree del mondo negli ultimi quattro decenni, tramite un’analisi panel, basandosi sui dati sui nutrienti consumati, provenienti dal database della FAO (e precisamente dal dataset Food Balance Sheets – FBS). Nella prima fase si introduce il problema dell’obesità e delle malattie croniche correlate, evidenziando dati statistici in diversi paesi europei e mondiali. Si sottolineano inoltre le diverse azioni dei governi e del WHO, tramite l’attuazione di campagne contro l’obesità e in favore di una vita più salutare e di una maggiore attività fisica. Nella seconda fase si è costruito un indicatore aggregato (Recommendation Compliance Index) in modo da analizzare le caratteristiche nella dieta dei diversi Paesi a livello mondiale rispetto alle norme del WHO. L’indicatore si basa sui dati ottenuti da FAOSTAT ed è calcolato per 149 paesi del database dell’FBS per il periodo 1961-2002. Nell’analisi si sono utilizzati i dati sulle percentuali di energia prodotta dalle varie componenti nutritive, quali grassi, grassi saturi e transaturi, zuccheri, carboidrati, proteine e le quantità di frutta e verdura consumate. Inoltre si è applicato un test statistico per testare se il valore del RCI è significativamente cambiato nel tempo, prendendo in considerazione gruppi di Paesi (Paesi OECD, Paesi in via di sviluppo e sottosviluppati). Si è voluto poi valutare la presenza o meno di un processo di convergenza, applicando l’analisi di σ-convergenza per osservare ad esempio se la variabilità è diminuita nel tempo in modo significativo. Infine si è applicato l’indicatore ad un livello micro, utilizzando il database del National Diet and Nutrition Survey, che raccoglie dati di macrocomponenti nutritive e misure antropometriche della popolazione inglese dai 16 ai 64 anni per il periodo 2000-2001. Si sono quindi effettuate analisi descrittive nonché analisi di correlazione, regressione lineare e ordinale per osservare le relazioni tra l’indicatore, i macronutrienti, il reddito e le misure antropometriche dell’ Indice di Massa Corporea (Body Mass Index, BMI) e del rapporto vita-fianchi (Waist-hip ratio, WHR).

Hospital antibiotic consumption in Switzerland: comparison of a multicultural country with Europe

The consumption of antibiotics in the inpatient setting of Switzerland was assessed to determine possible differences between linguistic regions, and to compare these results with European results. Data on antibiotic consumption were obtained from a sentinel network representing 54% of the national acute care hospitals, and from a private drug market monitoring company. Aggregated data were converted into defined daily doses (DDD). The total consumption density in Switzerland was close to the median consumption reported in European surveys. Between 2004 and 2008, the total consumption of systemic antibiotics rose from 46.1 to 54.0 DDD per 100 occupied bed-days in the entire hospitals, and from 101.6 to 114.3 DDD per 100 occupied bed-days in the intensive care units. Regional differences were observed for total consumption and among antibiotic classes. Hospitals in the Italian-speaking region showed a significantly higher consumption density, followed by the French- and German-speaking regions. Hospitals in the Italian-speaking region also had a higher consumption of fluoroquinolones, in line with the reported differences between Italy, Germany and France. Antibiotic consumption in acute care hospitals in Switzerland is close to the European median with a relatively low consumption in intensive care units. Some of the patterns of variation in consumption levels noticed among European countries are also observed among the cultural regions of Switzerland.

The 2002 European registry of cardiac catheter interventions

OBJECTIVE: The tradition of yearly reports on cardiac catheter interventions in Europe has been initiated in 1992. This 11th report presents aggregated data on cardiac catheter procedures in 30 European countries in the year 2002. DESIGN AND SETTING: A detailed questionnaire addressing summary data of all cardiac interventions was mailed to presidents or delegates of the national societies of cardiology in Europe. The questionnaire was distributed to all institutions with cardiac catheterisation programs. All questionnaires were compiled in a national summary data sheet, then entered into a central database and subsequently analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Coronary angiography, PTCA, and stenting in absolute numbers and per million inhabitants in the participating countries and the whole of Europe. RESULTS: Overall, 1,901,932 coronary angiograms were reported. The population-adjusted rate of coronary angiograms amounted to an absolute mean of 3358 per 10(6) inhabitants, an increase of 7% compared with 2001. A total of 686,869 PTCA procedures were reported. The mean European number of PTCAs per 10(6) inhabitants increased by 10% from 1103 in 2001 to 1213 in 2002. Procedures with stenting increased by 17% from 508,999 to 593,906. The stenting rate was 86% compared with 82% in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: In pace with epidemiological demand and the need to catch-up from underuse in certain countries, a continuous and considerable growth of coronary interventions can be observed. It will take years to find out whether the announced change of paradigm in the treatment of multivessel disease in the wake of drug-eluting stents will come true.

Public service motivation and performance: a critical perspective

Purpose – A growing body of literature points to the importance of public service motivation (PSM) for the performance of public organizations. The purpose of this paper is to assess the method predominantly used for studying this linkage by comparing the findings it yields without and with a correction suggested by Brewer (2006), which removes the common-method bias arising from employee-specific response tendencies. Design/methodology/approach – First, the authors conduct a systematic review of published empirical research on the effects of PSM on performance and show that all studies found have been conducted at the individual level. Performance indicators in all but three studies were obtained by surveying the same employees who were also asked about their PSM. Second, the authors conduct an empirical analysis. Using survey data from 240 organizational units within the Swiss federal government, the paper compares results from an individual-level analysis (comparable to existing research) to two analyses where the data are aggregated to the organizational level, one without and one with the correction for common-method bias suggested by Brewer (2006). Findings – Looking at the Attraction to Policy-Making dimension of PSM, there is an interesting contrast: While this variable is positively correlated with performance in both the individual-level analysis and the aggregated data analysis without the correction for common-method bias, it is not statistically associated with performance in the aggregated data analysis with the correction. Originality/value – The analysis is the first to assess the robustness of the performance-PSM linkage to a correction for common-method bias. The findings place the validity of at least one part of the individual-level linkage between PSM and performance into question.

Perinatal mortality and quality of care at the National Institute of Perinatology: A 3-year analysis

Quality of medical care has been indirectly assessed through the collection of negative outcomes. A preventable death is one that could have been avoided if optimum care had been offered. The general objective of the present project was to analyze the perinatal mortality at the National Institute of Perinatology (located in Mexico City) by social, biological and some available components of quality of care such as avoidability, provider responsibility, and structure and process deficiencies in the delivery of medical care. A Perinatal Mortality Committee data base was utilized. The study population consisted of all singleton perinatal deaths occurring between January 1, 1988 and June 30, 1991 (n = 522). A proportionate study was designed.^ The population studied mostly corresponded to married young adult mothers, who were residents of urban areas, with an educational level of junior high school or more, two to three pregnancies, and intermediate prenatal care. The mean gestational age at birth was 33.4 $\pm$ 3.9 completed weeks and the mean birthweight at birth was 1,791.9 $\pm$ 853.1 grams.^ Thirty-five percent of perinatal deaths were categorized as avoidable. Postnatal infection and premature rupture of membranes were the most frequent primary causes of avoidable perinatal death. The avoidable perinatal mortality rate was 8.7 per 1000 and significantly declined during the study period (p $<$.05). Preventable perinatal mortality aggregated data suggested that at least part of the mortality decline for amenable conditions was due to better medical care.^ Structure deficiencies were present in 35% of avoidable deaths and process deficiencies were present in 79%. Structure deficiencies remained constant over time. Process deficiencies consisted of diagnosis failures (45.8%) and treatment failures (87.3%), they also remained constant through the years. Party responsibility was as follows: Obstetric (35.4%), pediatric (41.4%), institutional (26.5%), and patient (6.6%). Obstetric responsibility significantly increased during the study period (p $<$.05). Pediatric responsibility declined only for newborns less than 1500 g (p $<$.05). Institutional responsibility remained constant.^ Process deficiencies increased the risk for an avoidable death eightfold (confidence interval 1.7-41.4, p $<$.01) and provider responsibility ninety-fivefold (confidence interval 14.8-612.1, p $<$.001), after adjustment for several confounding variables. Perinatal mortality due to prematurity, barotrauma and nosocomial infection, was highly preventable, but not that due to transpartum asphyxia. Once specific deficiencies in the quality of care have been identified, quality assurance actions should begin. ^

Analysis of the Iberian electricity forward market hedging efficiency

An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.

A Spatial Analysis of Agricultural Land Prices in Bavaria. Factor Markets Working Document No. 50, June 2013

This paper empirically analyses a dataset of more than 7,300 agricultural land sales transactions from 2001 and 2007 to identify the factors influencing agricultural land prices in Bavaria. We use a general spatial model, which combines a spatial lag and a spatial error model, and in addition account for endogeneity introduced by the spatially lagged dependent variable as well as other explanatory variables. Our findings confirm the strong influence of agricultural factors such as land productivity, of variables describing the regional land market structure, and of non-agricultural factors such as urban pressure on agricultural land prices. Moreover, the involvement of public authorities as a seller or buyer increases sales prices in Bavaria. We find a significant capitalisation of government support payments into agricultural land, where a decrease of direct payments by 1% would decrease land prices in 2007 and 2001 by 0.27% and 0.06%, respectively. In addition, we confirm strong spatial relationships in our dataset. Neglecting this leads to biased estimates, especially if aggregated data is used. We find that the price of a specific plot increases by 0.24% when sales prices in surrounding areas increase by 1%.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and changes in health risk behaviours in Australia: 1989-90 to 2001

Objective. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated in industrialized countries with unhealthy lifestyle characteristics, such as smoking, physical inactivity and being overweight or obese. This paper examines changes over time in the association between SES and smoking status, physical activity and being overweight or obese in Australia. Methods. Data were taken from three successive national health surveys in Australia carried out in 1989-90 (n = 54 576), 1995 (n = 53 828) and 2001 (n = 26 863). Participants in these surveys were selected using a national probability sampling strategy, and aggregated data for geographical areas are used to determine the changing association between SES and lifestyle over time. Findings. Overall, men had less healthy lifestyles, In 2001 inverse SES trends for both men and women showed that those living in lower SES areas were more likely to smoke and to be sedentary and obese, There were some important socioeconomic changes over the period 1989-90 to 2001. The least socioeconomically disadvantaged areas had the largest decrease in the percentage of people smoking tobacco (24% decrease for men and 12% for women) and the largest decrease in the percentage of people reporting sedentary activity levels (25% decrease for men and 22% for women). While there has been a general increase in the percentage over time of those who are overweight or obese, there is a modest trend for being overweight to have increased (by about 16% only among females) among those living in areas of higher SES. Conclusion. Socioeconomic inequalities have been increasing for several key risk behaviours related to health; this suggests that T specific population-based prevention strategies intended to reduce health inequalities are needed.

Individual differences in the sensory perception of fats

Excessive consumption of dietary fat is acknowledged to be a widespread problem linked to a range of medical conditions. Despite this, little is known about the specific sensory appeal held by fats and no previous published research exists concerning human perception of non-textural taste qualities in fats. This research aimed to address whether a taste component can be found in sensory perception of pure fats. It also examined whether individual differences existed in human taste responses to fat, using both aggregated data analysis methods and multidimensional scaling. Results indicated that individuals were able to detect both the primary taste qualities of sweet, salty, sour and bitter in pure processed oils and reliably ascribe their own individually-generated taste labels, suggested that a taste component may be present in human responses to fat. Individual variation appeared to exist, both in the perception of given taste qualities and in perceived intensity and preferences. A number of factors were examined in relation to such individual differences in taste perception, including age, gender, genetic sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, body mass, dietary preferences and intake, dieting behaviours and restraint. Results revealed that, to varying extents, gender, age, sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, dietary preferences, habitual dietary intake and restraint all appeared to be related to individual variation in taste responses to fat. However, in general, these differences appeared to exist in the form of differing preferences and levels of intensity with which taste qualities detected in fat were perceived, as opposed to the perception of specific taste qualities being associated with given traits or states. Equally, each of these factors appeared to exert only a limited influence upon variation in sensory responses and thus the potential for using taste responses to fats as a marker for issues such as over-consumption, obesity or eating disorder is at present limited.

Near miss materno e iniquidades em saúde: análise de determinantes contextuais no Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

The scope of this study was to identify socioeconomic contextual and health care factors in primary care associated with maternal near misses and their marker conditions. This is an ecological study that used aggregated data of 63 clusters formed by the municipalities of State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, using the Skater method of area regionalization, as the unit of analysis. The ratio of maternal near misses and their marker conditions were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. In multiple linear regression analysis, there was a significant association between maternal near misses and variables of poverty and poor primary health care. Hypertensive disorders were also associated with poverty and poor primary care and the occurrence of hemorrhaging was associated with infant mortality. It was observed that the occurrence of maternal near misses is linked to unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and poor quality health care that are a reflection of public policies that accentuate health inequalities.

Near miss materno e iniquidades em saúde: análise de determinantes contextuais no Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

The scope of this study was to identify socioeconomic contextual and health care factors in primary care associated with maternal near misses and their marker conditions. This is an ecological study that used aggregated data of 63 clusters formed by the municipalities of State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, using the Skater method of area regionalization, as the unit of analysis. The ratio of maternal near misses and their marker conditions were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Unified Health System. In multiple linear regression analysis, there was a significant association between maternal near misses and variables of poverty and poor primary health care. Hypertensive disorders were also associated with poverty and poor primary care and the occurrence of hemorrhaging was associated with infant mortality. It was observed that the occurrence of maternal near misses is linked to unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and poor quality health care that are a reflection of public policies that accentuate health inequalities.