The performance of diversified emerging market equity funds

We investigate the performance of globally diversified emerging market equity funds during the first decade of the twenty-first century. A vast majority of these funds do not outperform the market benchmark even before transaction costs. The systematic risk of most of the funds is similar to that of the market benchmark portfolio, which may suggest that they aim to offer diversification benefits rather than seeking superior risk-adjusted returns through active management. We do not find any evidence of market timing ability amongst these funds. Finally, whilst we detect persistence in performance, this result is driven mainly by the poorly performing funds.

Age and leadership: The moderating role of legacy beliefs

Age and age-related motivations have been neglected in leadership research. This study examined the moderating influence of legacy beliefs on the relationships between age and transformational, transactional, and passive-avoidant leadership behaviors. Legacy beliefs involve individuals' convictions about whether they and their actions will be remembered, have an enduring influence, and leave something behind after death. It was expected that at higher ages, low legacy beliefs impede transformational and transactional leadership behaviors and boost passive-avoidant leadership behaviors. One hundred and six university professors, between 30 and 70 years old, provided ratings of their legacy beliefs; each professor's leadership behaviors were evaluated by one of his or her employees. Results confirmed the assumptions for overall transformational leadership and its charisma subdimension as well as for overall transactional leadership and its active management-by-exception subdimension but not for passive-avoidant leadership.

Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change

The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.

High-resolution automatic water quality monitoring systems applied to catchment and reservoir monitoring

Automatic recording instruments provide the ideal means of recording the responses of rivers, lakes and reservoirs to short-term changes in the weather. As part of the project ‘Using Automatic Monitoring and Dynamic Modelling for the Active Management of Lakes and Reservoirs', a family of three automatic monitoring stations were designed by engineers at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Windermere to monitor such responses. In this article, the authors describe this instrument network in some detail and present case studies that illustrate the value of high resolution automatic monitoring in both catchment and reservoir applications.

Recent patterns of change in vegetation structure and tree composition of British broadleaved woodland: evidence from large-scale surveys

Evidence is presented of widespread changes in structure and species composition between the 1980s and 2003–2004 from surveys of 249 British broadleaved woodlands. Structural components examined include canopy cover, vertical vegetation profiles, field-layer cover and deadwood abundance. Woods were located in 13 geographical localities and the patterns of change were examined for each locality as well as across all woods. Changes were not uniform throughout the localities; overall, there were significant decreases in canopy cover and increases in sub-canopy (2–10 m) cover. Changes in 0.5–2 m vegetation cover showed strong geographic patterns, increasing in western localities, but declining or showing no change in eastern localities. There were significant increases in canopy ash Fraxinus excelsior and decreases in oak Quercus robur/petraea. Shrub layer ash and honeysuckle Lonicera periclymenum increased while birch Betula spp. hawthorn Crataegus monogyna and hazel Corylus avellana declined. Within the field layer, both bracken Pteridium aquilinum and herbs increased. Overall, deadwood generally increased. Changes were consistent with reductions in active woodland management and changes in grazing and browsing pressure. These findings have important implications for sustainable active management of British broadleaved woodlands to meet silvicultural and biodiversity objectives.

Strategic review of enhancements and culture-based fisheries

Enhancements are interventions in the life cycle of common-pool aquatic resources. Enhancement technologies include culture-based fisheries, habitat modifications, fertilization, feeding and elimination of predators/competitors. Enhancements are estimated to yield about two million mt per year, mostly from culture-based fisheries in fresh waters where they account for some 20 percent of capture, or 10 percent of combined capture and culture production. Marine enhancements are still at an experimental stage, but some have reached commercial production. Enhancements use limited external feed and energy inputs, and can provide very high returns for labour and capital input. Moreover, enhancement initiatives can facilitate institutional change and a more active management of aquatic resources, leading to increased productivity, conservation and wider social benefits. Enhancements may help to maintain population abundance, community structure and ecosystem functioning in the face of heavy exploitation and/or environmental degradation. Negative environmental impacts may arise from ecological and genetic interactions between enhanced and wild stocks. Many enhancements have not realised their full potential because of a failure to address specific institutional, technological, management and research requirements emanating from two key characteristics. Firstly, enhancement involves investment in common-pool resources and can only be sustained under institutional arrangements that allow regulation of use and a flow of benefits to those who bear the costs of enhancement. Secondly, interventions are limited to certain aspects of the life cycle of stocks, and outcomes are strongly dependent on natural conditions beyond management control. Hence, management must be adapted to local conditions to be effective, and certain conditions may preclude successful enhancement altogether. Governments have a major role to play in facilitating enhancement initiatives through the establishment of conducive institutional arrangements, appropriate research support, and the management of environmental and other impacts on and from enhancements.

Where exactly do ground-foraging woodland birds forage? Foraging sites and microhabitat selection in temperate woodlands of southern Australia

Bird assemblages in woodlands of southern Australia are characterised by a high proportion of ground-foraging species, many of which are experiencing population declines. We examined the foraging sites of 13 species of ground-foraging birds, including four common species and nine declining species, in four study areas representing different woodland types. Microhabitat features were recorded within a 3-m radius of observed foraging points and compared with random points. Significant differences between foraging and random plots were detected for all but one species, clearly indicating selection for foraging habitat. However, levels of dissimilarity between foraging and random plots were low, suggesting that much of the woodland study area is suitable for foraging. Microhabitat features of particular importance for multiple species were a low density of trees and shrubs, a high cover of native herbs, and fallen timber on the ground. Sites amidst dense trees tended not to be used. Several species had more particular requirements, such as the Diamond Firetail (Stagonopleura guttata) for grass cover and the White-winged Chough (Corcorax melanorhamphos) for litter cover. There was no evidence that declining species showed a greater degree of selection or were more restricted in the availability of foraging microhabitats than common species. Several of the key attributes of preferred foraging sites, such as tree density, can be actively managed at the local scale. A heterogeneous ground layer is needed to provide suitable foraging habitat for the full suite of ground-foraging birds. Achieving suitable heterogeneity in present-day woodlands will require careful and active management of various disturbance processes.

Collapse of an avifauna : climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Aim. We characterized changes in reporting rates and abundances of bird species over a period of severe rainfall deficiency and increasing average temperatures. We also measured flowering in eucalypts, which support large numbers of nectarivores characteristic of the region.

Location.  A 30,000-km2 region of northern Victoria, Australia, consisting of limited amounts of remnant native woodlands embedded in largely agricultural landscapes.

Methods. There were three sets of monitoring studies, pitched at regional  (survey programmes in 1995–97, 2004–05 and 2006–08), landscape (2002–03 and 2006–07) and site (1997–2008 continuously) scales. Bird survey techniques used a standard 2-ha, 20-min count method. We used Bayesian analyses of reporting rates to document statistically changes in the avifauna through time at each spatial scale.

Results. Bird populations in the largest remnants of native vegetation (up to 40,000 ha), some of which have been declared as national parks in the past decade, experienced similar declines to those in heavily cleared andscapes. All categories of birds (guilds based on foraging substrate, diet, nest site; relative mobility; geographical distributions) were affected similarly. We detected virtually no bird breeding in the latest survey periods. Eucalypt flowering has declined significantly over the past 12 years of drought.

Main conclusions. Declines in the largest woodland remnants commensurate with those in cleared landscapes suggest that reserve systems may not be relied upon to sustain species under climate change. We attribute population declines to low breeding success due to reduced food. Resilience of bird populations in this woodland system might be increased by active management to enhance habitat quality in existing vegetation and restoration of woodland in the more fertile parts of landscapes.

Conservation ecology and breeding biology of the white-browed treecreeper, Climacteris affinis

The White-browed Treecreeper Climacteris affinis is one of many woodland-dependent birds that are at risk from the encroachment of human-dominated land-uses into natural landscapes. The White-browed Treecreeper inhabits semi-arid woodlands in north-west Victoria, Australia, a vegetation community that has undergone extreme modification in the last century due to the expansion of agriculture in the region. Extant woodlands represent only 10% of the original woodland cover in the region, and are highly fragmented and disturbed in many districts. Thus, the survival of the White-browed Treecreeper may depend on active management. However, current knowledge of the ecology and biology of this species is virtually non-existent, and inadequate for informed and effective conservation actions. The aim of this thesis is to redress this situation and provide the ecological basis for sound conservation management of the species. The thesis consists of two parts: an investigation of habitat use at three spatial scales and a study of the social organization, nesting requirements, breeding behaviour and reproductive success of a population of White-browed Treecreepers. Fifty-six patches of remnant woodland in north-west Victoria were surveyed to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the White-browed Treecreeper at the regional scale. It was detected in 16 patches, and was largely confined to two core districts - Yarrara and, Wyperfeld (Pine Plains). The floristic composition of the dominant tree species was an important determinant of patch occupancy, with the results providing quantitative support for the previously suspected affinity for Belah Casuarina pauper and Slender Cypress-pine Callitris gracilis — Buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii woodlands. However, the absence of the White-browed Treecreeper from several districts was due to factors other than a lack of appropriate habitat. Demographic isolation - the distance from the focal patch to the nearest population of the White-browed Treecreeper - was the most important variable in explaining variation in patch occupancy. Patches isolated from other treecreeper populations by more than 8.3 km in landscapes of non-preferred native vegetation, and 3 km in agricultural landscapes, were unlikely to support the White-browed Treecreeper. The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on the capacity of individuals to move through the landscape (i.e. functional connectivity) is considered in relation to disruption to dispersal and migration, and the potential collapse of local metapopulations. Habitat use was then examined in a network of patches and linear strips of Belah woodland embedded in a predominantly cultivated landscape. A minimum area of 18.5 ha of Belah woodland was identified as the most important criterion for patch occupancy at the local scale. This landscape appeared to be permeable to movement by the White-browed Treecreeper, facilitated by the extensive network of linear habitat, and clusters of small to medium fragments. The third scale of habitat use investigated the frequency of use of 1-ha plots within tracts of occupied woodland. It is important to discriminate between habitat traits that operate at the population level, and those that act as proximate cues for habitat selection by individuals. Woodlands that have high tree density, extensive cover of low-stature shrubs, abundant lichen, a complex vertical structure, and relatively low cover of grass and herbs are likely to support larger populations of the White-browed Treecreeper. However, individuals appeared to be using tree dominance (positive) and tall shrub cover (negative) as proximate environmental stimuli for habitat selectivity. A relatively high cover of ground lichen, which probably reflects a ground layer with low disturbance and high structural complexity, was also a reliable indicator of habitat use. Predictive models were developed which could be used to plan vegetation management to enhance habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The results of the regional, landscape and patch-scale investigations emphasise that factors operating at multiple spatial scales influence the suitability of remnant vegetation as habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The White-browed Treecreeper is typical of many small Australian passerines in that it has high annual survival, small clutches, a long breeding season, multiple broods and relatively low reproductive rates. Reproductive effort is adjusted through the number of clutches laid rather than clutch size. They occupy relatively large, all-purpose territories throughout the year. However, unlike many group territorial birds, territory size was not related to the number of occupants. The White-browed Treecreeper nests in tree hollows. They select hollows with a southerly orientation where possible, and prefer hollows that were higher from the ground. At Yarrara, there was considerable spatial variation in hollow abundance that, in concert with territorial constraints, restricted the actual availability of hollows to less than the absolute abundance of hollows. Thus, the availability of suitable hollows may limit reproductive productivity in some territories, although the magnitude of this constraint on overall population growth is predicted to be small. However, lack of recruitment of hollow-bearing trees would increase the potential for hollow availability to limit population growth. This prospect is particularly relevant in grazed remnants and those outside the reserve system. Facultative cooperative breeding was confirmed, with groups formed through male philopatry. Consequently, natal dispersal is female-biased, although there was no skew in the sex ratio of the fledglings or the general adult population. Helpers were observed performing all activities associated with parenting except copulation and brooding. Cooperatively breeding groups enjoyed higher fledgling productivity than simple pairs, after statistically accounting for territory and parental quality. However, the difference reflected increased productivity in the 1999-breeding season only, when climatic conditions were more favourable than in 1998. Breeding commenced earlier in 1999, and all breeding units were more likely to attempt a second brood. However, only breeders with helpers were successful in fledging second brood young, and it was this difference that accounted for the overall discrepancy in productivity. The key mechanism for increased success in cooperative groups was a reduction hi the interval between first and second broods, facilitated by compensatory reductions in the level of care to the first brood. Thus, females with helpers probably achieved significant energetic savings during this period, which enabled them to re-lay sooner. Furthermore, they were able to recommence nesting when the fledglings from the first brood were younger because there were more adults to feed the dependent juveniles. The current utility, and possible evolutionary pathways, of cooperative breeding is examined from the perspective of both breeders and helpers. Breeders benefit through enhanced fledgling productivity in good breeding conditions and a reduction in the burden of parental care, which may impart significant energetic savings. Further, breeders may facilitate philopatry as a means for ensuring a minimum level of reproductive success. Helpers benefit through an increase in their inclusive fitness in the absence of opportunities for independent breeding (i.e. ecological constraints) and access to breeding vacancies in the natal or adjacent territories (i.e. benefits of philopatry). However, the majority of breeding unit-years comprised unassisted breeders, which suggests that pairs are selectively favoured under certain environmental or demographic conditions.

Superannuation retirement balances: A surprising outcome

Aim: Although the guaranteed superannuation system is believed by many to provide a safe and adequate source of funds in retirement, some will be unpleasantly surprised. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant effect of the economic cycle on the final accumulated balance in superannuation retirement accounts. Method: A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the variance in outcomes that can be expected for a hypothetical individual. Results: The expected accumulated superannuation balances for two hypothetical individuals are estimated. The spread of outcomes is used to illustrate the problem of using only the mean of the distribution as a predictor of wealth in the retirement years. Conclusions: Many retirees rely on superannuation to fund their retirement. However regular contributions to superannuation does not ensure a predictable outcome, and active management of contributions is required if retirement goals are to be met.

A bust but no boom: responses of floodplain bird assemblages during and after prolonged drought

Climate change alters the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as drought. Such events will be increasingly important in shaping communities as climate change intensifies. The ability of species to withstand extreme events (resistance) and to recover once adverse conditions abate (resilience) will determine their persistence. We estimated the resistance and resilience of bird species during and after a 13-year drought (the 'Big Dry') in floodplain forests in south-eastern Australia. We conducted bird surveys at the beginning and end of the Big Dry, and after the abrupt end to the drought (the 'Big Wet'), to evaluate species-specific changes in reporting rates among the three periods. We assessed changes in bird-breeding activity before and after the Big Wet to estimate demographic resilience based on breeding. Between the start and the end of the Big Dry (1998 vs. 2009), 37 of 67 species declined substantially. Of those, only two had increased reporting rates after the Big Wet (2009 vs. 2013) that were equal to or larger than their declines, while three partially recovered. All other declining species showed low resilience: 25 showed no change in reporting rates and seven declined further. The number of breeding species and total breeding activity of all species declined after the Big Wet, and there was no change in the number of young produced. The Big Dry caused widespread declines in the floodplain avifauna. Despite the drought being broken by 2 years of well-above-average rainfall and subsequent near-average rainfall, most species showed low resilience and there was little indication that overall breeding had increased. The effects of drought appeared to be pervasive for much of the floodplain avifauna, regardless of species traits (species body mass, fecundity, mobility or diet). Ecosystems such as these are likely to require active management and restoration, including reinstatement of natural flooding regimes, to improve ecological condition, to enhance resistance and resilience to extreme climate events.

A new era in the treatment of multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of the central nervous system with a multifactorial aetiology and highly variable natural history. A growing understanding of the immunopathogenesis of the condition has led to an expanding array of therapies for this previously untreatable disease. While a cure for MS remains elusive, the potential to reduce inflammatory disease activity by preventing relapses and minimising disease progression is achievable. The importance of early treatment in minimising long-term disability is increasingly recognised. Most of the newer, more effective therapies are associated with risks and practical problems that necessitate an active management strategy and continuous vigilance. While the initiation of these therapies is likely to remain the responsibility of neurologists, other specialist physicians and general practitioners will be involved in the identification and management of adverse effects.

Indexing stock portfolios in Brazil: tracking the IBOVESPA and the FGV 100

Indexing is a passive investment strategy in which the investor weights bis portfolio to match the performance of a broad-based indexo Since severaI studies showed that indexed portfolios have consistently outperformed active management strategies over the last decades, an increasing number of investors has become interested in indexing portfolios IateIy. Brazilian financiaI institutions do not offer indexed portfolios to their clients at this point in time. In this work we propose the use of indexed portfolios to track the performance oftwo ofthe most important Brazilian stock indexes: the mOVESPA and the FGVIOO. We test the tracking performance of our modeI by a historical simulation. We applied several statistical tests to the data to verify how many stocks should be used to controI the portfolio tracking error within user specified bounds.

Brazilian equity mutual funds: A general outlook based on performance

This dissertation main goal is to overview the Brazilian equity mutual funds returns. We find that active management is not effective for Ibovespa index, since Ibovespa active funds do not outperform the Ibovespa referenced funds. However, for IBrX index, active management do outperform the passive strategy. We found that Sustainable funds returns do not outperform the market, Endowment funds show poor performance, which could indicate strong regulation imposition over endowment funds portfolios. The size of a fund shows positive correlation to mean average returns and alphas. A fund’s lifetime is positively correlated to returns and to alphas, which could be related to more risk-taking by younger managers in order to pursue higher expected returns and, consequently, bigger inflows. Younger funds tend to have lower performance probably because, in taking more risks, they do not perform as expected. In addition, we find that the decreasing trend of the alpha evolution along the time is a sign of the industry decreasing returns of scale, which entails that managers have more difficulties to beat the market portfolio. Top 10s rankings show that funds appear more than once on the top 10s, which shows persistence of funds’ performance. Finally, concerning the deciles and quartiles rankings, the frequency of appearances changes among performance measures. There are measures which, when compared to others, strongly change the top and bottom for the decile and quartile members.