Political economy of municipal water service privatization in Spain: a duration model analysis

This empirical work applies a duration model to the study of factors determining privatization of local water services. I assess how factors determining privatization decision evolve as time goes by. A sample of 133 Spanish municipalities during the six terms of office taken place during the 1980-2002 period is analyzed. A dynamic neighboring effect is hypothesized and successfully tested. In a first stage, private water supply firms may try to expand to regions where there is no service privatized, in order to spread over this region after having being installed thanks to its scale advantages. Other factors influencing privatization decision evolve during the two decades under study, from the priority to fix old infrastructures to the concern about service efficiency. Some complementary results regarding political and budgetary factors are also obtained

Applications of the bootstrap to survival analysis

En este trabajo se revisan algunas de las aplicaciones clásicas del bootstrap al análisis de la supervivencia. Se consideran en primer lugar el estimador bootstrap de la varianza y el estimador de la mediana corregido para el sesgo del estimador de Kaplan-Meier de la función de supervivencia. A continuación se consideran algunos aspectos mas recientes, tales como métodos para construir bandas de confianza para el estimador de la funcidn de supervivencia y contrastes aproximados para la comparación de funciones de supervivencia. En ambas situaciones el bootstrap resulta de gran utilidad para la aproximación de 10s valores críticos necesarios.

Factors favoring a degradation or an improvement in activities of daily living (ADL) performance among nursing home (NH) residents: A survival analysis.

Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.

Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.

Survival analysis of female dogs with mammary tumors after mastectomy: epidemiological, clinical and morphological aspects

Abstract: Mammary gland tumors are the most common type of tumors in bitches but research on survival time after diagnosis is scarce. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between survival time after mastectomy and a number of clinical and morphological variables. Data was collected retrospectively on bitches with mammary tumors seen at the Small Animal Surgery Clinic Service at the University of Brasília. All subjects had undergone mastectomy. Survival analysis was conducted using Cox's proportional hazard method. Of the 139 subjects analyzed, 68 died and 71 survived until the end of the study (64 months). Mean age was 11.76 years (SD=2.71), 53.84% were small dogs. 76.92% of the tumors were malignant, and 65.73% had both thoracic and inguinal glands affected. Survival time in months was associated with age (hazard rate ratios [HRR] =1.23, p-value =1.4x10-4), animal size (HRR between giant and small animals =2.61, p-value =0.02), nodule size (HRR =1.09, p-value =0.03), histological type (HRR between solid carcinoma and carcinoma in a mixed tumor =2.40, p-value =0.02), time between diagnosis and surgery (TDS, with HRR =1.21, p-value =2.7x10-15), and the interaction TDS*follow-up time (HRR =0.98, p-value =1.6x10-11). The present study is one of the few on the subject matter. Several important covariates were evaluated and age, animal size, nodule size, histological type, TDS and TDS*follow up time were identified as significantly associated to survival time.

A REVIEW OF SOIL CONSTITUTIVE MODELS FOR SOIL STRUCTURE INTEREACTION ANALYSIS

Soils are multiphase materials comprised of mineral grains, air voids and water. Soils are not linearly elastic or perfectly plastic for external loading. Various constitutive models are available to describe the various aspects of soil behaviour. But no single soil model can completely describe the behaviour of real soil under all conditions. This paper attempts to compare various soil models and suggest a suitable model for the Soil Structure Interaction analysis especially for Kochi marine clay.

Prevalencia de delirium en población adulta en cuidado intensivo.

Introducción: El delirium es un trastorno de conciencia de inicio agudo asociado a confusión o disfunción cognitiva, se puede presentar hasta en 42% de pacientes, de los cuales hasta el 80% ocurren en UCI. El delirium aumenta la estancia hospitalaria, el tiempo de ventilación mecánica y la morbimortalidad. Se pretendió evaluar la prevalencia de periodo de delirium en adultos que ingresaron a la UCI en un hospital de cuarto nivel durante 2012 y los factores asociados a su desarrollo. Metodología Se realizó un estudio transversal con corte analítico, se incluyeron pacientes hospitalizados en UCI médica y UCI quirúrgica. Se aplicó la escala de CAM-ICU y el Examen Mínimo del Estado Mental para evaluar el estado mental. Las asociaciones significativas se ajustaron con análisis multivariado. Resultados: Se incluyeron 110 pacientes, el promedio de estancia fue 5 días; la prevalencia de periodo de delirium fue de 19.9%, la mediana de edad fue 64.5 años. Se encontró una asociación estadísticamente significativa entre el delirium y la alteración cognitiva de base, depresión, administración de anticolinérgicos y sepsis (p< 0,05). Discusión Hasta la fecha este es el primer estudio en la institución. La asociación entre delirium en la UCI y sepsis, uso de anticolinérgicos, y alteración cognitiva de base son consistentes y comparables con factores de riesgo descritos en la literatura mundial.

Survival analysis of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK

This paper explores the changing survival patterns of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK since the introduction of plant breeders’ rights in the mid-1960s. Using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric approaches, we examine the determinants of the survival of wheat variety innovations, focusing on the impacts of changes to Plant Variety Protection (PVP) regime over the last four decades. We find that the period since the introduction of the PVP regime has been characterised by the accelerated development of new varieties and increased private sector participation in the breeding of cereal crop varieties. However, the increased flow of varieties has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the longevity of innovations. These trends may have contributed to a reduction in the returns appropriated by plant breeders from protected variety innovations and may explain the decline of conventional plant breeding in the UK. It may also explain the persistent demand from the seed industry for stronger protection. The strengthening of the PVP regime in conformity with the UPOV Convention of 1991, the introduction of EU-wide protection through the Community Plant Variety Office and the introduction of royalties on farm-saved seed have had a positive effect on the longevity of protected variety innovations, but have not been adequate to offset the long term decline in survival durations.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Survival analysis statistics applied to threshold data obtained from the ascending forced-choice method of limits

Sensory thresholds are often collected through ascending forced-choice methods. Group thresholds are important for comparing stimuli or populations; yet, the method has two problems. An individual may correctly guess the correct answer at any concentration step and might detect correctly at low concentrations but become adapted or fatigued at higher concentrations. The survival analysis method deals with both issues. Individual sequences of incorrect and correct answers are adjusted, taking into account the group performance at each concentration. The technique reduces the chance probability where there are consecutive correct answers. Adjusted sequences are submitted to survival analysis to determine group thresholds. The technique was applied to an aroma threshold and a taste threshold study. It resulted in group thresholds similar to ASTM or logarithmic regression procedures. Significant differences in taste thresholds between younger and older adults were determined. The approach provides a more robust technique over previous estimation methods.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Use of survival analysis as a tool for the genetic improvement of age at first conception in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons in beef cattle lead to censoring of reproductive data. In this paper, age at first conception (AFC) of Nellore females exposed to the sires for the first time between 11 and 16 months of age, was studied aiming to verify the possibility of genetically advance sexual precocity using a survival model. The final data set contained 6699 records of AFC in days. Records of females that did not calve in the next year following exposure to the sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The model used was a Weibull mixed survival model including effects of contemporary groups, period (fixed) and animal (random). The effect of the contemporary groups on AFC was important (p < 0.01). Heritabilities were 0.51 and 0.76 in logarithmic and original scales respectively. Results indicate that it is possible to genetically advance sexual precocity, using the outcome of survival analysis of AFC as selection criterion. They also suggest that improvements of the environment could advance sexual precocity too, thus an adequate pregnancy rate for farmers could quickly be achieved.

On expectation of life in bivariate survival analysis

Includes bibliography