Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions

1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

L'Univers

1892/09/14 (Numéro 8901).

L'Univers

1892/06/04 (Numéro 8901).

L'Écho de Paris

1908/12/16 (Numéro 8901).

Herramienta. Costeo de servicios

Desarrollo empresarial y creación de empresa

Receipt from W.J. and J. McCalla, St. Catharines for sugar

Receipt from W.J. and J. McCalla, St. Catharines for sugar, March 3, 1888.

Tierra Nihilista : Recuerdos de Rusia

UANL

Arès dans le quotidien des Grecs à travers l'épigraphie

La présente recherche porte sur le dieu de la guerre des Grecs anciens, Arès. La communauté historienne s’entend pour affirmer qu’Arès était un dieu de second ordre et un dieu mal aimé par les Grecs de l’époque. Les investigations des historiens du XXe siècle sont axées sur les documents littéraires et elles ne font que reformuler, dans la majorité des cas, le contenu de ceux-ci. Alors, afin de bénéficier d’un regard nouveau sur le dieu, on a étudié Arès au travers les documents épigraphiques pour corroborer ou non nos présentes connaissances. Le dieu de la guerre tel que présenté dans les écrits littéraires est-il le même que celui qui est véhiculé dans l’épigraphie de l’époque? La réponse à cette question nous permettra d’établir si nos connaissances actuelles sont valables et elle les complètera. La recherche épigraphique s’effectue en cinq étapes. D’abord, on voit si le côté militaire d’Arès était également prédominant au sein des inscriptions. Ensuite, on porte une attention particulière aux documents épigraphiques pouvant démontrer un Arès mal aimé. Le tout se poursuit avec la mise en relation du dieu et des anciens serments. Enfin, on termine avec une approche plus géographique qui nous permet de définir deux foyers importants du dieu de la guerre, soit la cité de Métropolis et l’île de Crète. À la suite de ce parcours on a déterminé que l’appréciation et l’importance que les Grecs accordaient à ce dieu n’était pas unanime. Le ressentiment des Grecs variaient selon les individus et les lieux. On a aussi été capable d’établir des faits au sujet d’Arès : son domaine d’action prédominant restait le militaire dans les inscriptions; il était un réel dieu, présent, respecté et loué; il possédait d’importants lieux de culte à Lato et Métropolis. Compte tenu d’une redéfinition notable du profil d’Arès, une révision des sources littéraires propres à Arès s’impose ainsi qu’une évaluation complète de toutes les autres sources (iconographique, archéologique, numismatique, épigraphique, etc.).

¿Se han transformado las acciones populares con ocasión de los cambios normativos y jurisprudenciales ocurridos en el periodo 2006-2012?

El trabajo realizado tiene como objetivo revisar la problemática planteada en la jurisdicción contencioso administrativa, a través de un estudio concentrado de aspectos procesales esenciales en la estructura de la acción popular como (i) el incentivo (en este caso, se evaluará el impacto de su eliminación), (ii) la efectividad de la audiencia de pacto, (iii) las medidas cautelares como quiera que fueron objeto de modificación en la Ley 1437 de 2011 y por último, (iv) el estudio del mecanismo de revisión eventual incorporado en el año 2009 como mecanismo de unificación.

Conservation strategy maps: a tool to facilitate biodiversity action planning illustrated using the heath fritillary butterfly

1. The UK Biodiversity Action Plan (UKBAP) identifies invertebrate species in danger of national extinction. For many of these species, targets for recovery specify the number of populations that should exist by a specific future date but offer no procedure to plan strategically to achieve the target for any species. 2. Here we describe techniques based upon geographic information systems (GIS) that produce conservation strategy maps (CSM) to assist with achieving recovery targets based on all available and relevant information. 3. The heath fritillary Mellicta athalia is a UKBAP species used here to illustrate the use of CSM. A phase 1 habitat survey was used to identify habitat polygons across the county of Kent, UK. These were systematically filtered using relevant habitat, botanical and autecological data to identify seven types of polygon, including those with extant colonies or in the vicinity of extant colonies, areas managed for conservation but without colonies, and polygons that had the appropriate habitat structure and may therefore be suitable for reintroduction. 4. Five clusters of polygons of interest were found across the study area. The CSM of two of them are illustrated here: the Blean Wood complex, which contains the existing colonies of heath fritillary in Kent, and the Orlestone Forest complex, which offers opportunities for reintroduction. 5. Synthesis and applications. Although the CSM concept is illustrated here for the UK, we suggest that CSM could be part of species conservation programmes throughout the world. CSM are dynamic and should be stored in electronic format, preferably on the world-wide web, so that they can be easily viewed and updated. CSM can be used to illustrate opportunities and to develop strategies with scientists and non-scientists, enabling the engagement of all communities in a conservation programme. CSM for different years can be presented to illustrate the progress of a plan or to provide continuous feedback on how a field scenario develops.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Experimental verification of suction sampler capture efficiency in grasslands of differing vegetation height and structure

1. Suction sampling is a popular method for the collection of quantitative data on grassland invertebrate populations, although there have been no detailed studies into the effectiveness of the method. 2. We investigate the effect of effort (duration and number of suction samples) and sward height on the efficiency of suction sampling of grassland beetle, true bug, planthopper and spider Populations. We also compare Suction sampling with an absolute sampling method based on the destructive removal of turfs. 3. Sampling for durations of 16 seconds was sufficient to collect 90% of all individuals and species of grassland beetles, with less time required for the true bugs, spiders and planthoppers. The number of samples required to collect 90% of the species was more variable, although in general 55 sub-samples was sufficient for all groups, except the true bugs. Increasing sward height had a negative effect on the capture efficiency of suction sampling. 4. The assemblage structure of beetles, planthoppers and spiders was independent of the sampling method (suction or absolute) used. 5. Synthesis and applications. In contrast to other sampling methods used in grassland habitats (e.g. sweep netting or pitfall trapping), suction sampling is an effective quantitative tool for the measurement of invertebrate diversity and assemblage structure providing sward height is included as a covariate. The effective sampling of beetles, true bugs, planthoppers and spiders altogether requires a minimum sampling effort of 110 sub-samples of duration of 16 seconds. Such sampling intensities can be adjusted depending on the taxa sampled, and we provide information to minimize sampling problems associated with this versatile technique. Suction sampling should remain an important component in the toolbox of experimental techniques used during both experimental and management sampling regimes within agroecosystems, grasslands or other low-lying vegetation types.