Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Issues for Managing Tourism Information

The need for a high quality tourism database is well known. For example, planners and managers need high quality data for budgeting, forecasting, planning marketing and advertising strategies, and staffing. Thus the concepts of quality and need are intertwined to pose a problem to the tourism professional, be they private sector or public sector employees. One could argue that collaboration by public and private sector tourism professionals could provide the best sources and uses of high quality tourism data. This discussion proposes just such a collaboration and a detailed methodology for operationalizing this arrangement.

Australian waterfalls as tourism attractions

For a largely arid country with generally low relief, Australia has a remarkably large number and variety of waterfalls. Found mainly near the coast, close to where most of the population lives and near the major tourist resort areas, these landscape features have long been popular scenic attractions. As sights to see and places to enjoy a variety of recreational activities, waterfalls continue to play an important role in Australia’s tourism, even in seaside resort areas where the main attractions are sunshine, sandy beaches and surf. The aesthetic appeal of waterfalls and their value as recreational resources are recognized by the inclusion of many in national parks. Even here, demands of visitors and pressures from developers raise serious problems. This paper examines the way in which waterfalls have been developed and promoted as tourist attractions, demonstrating their importance to Australian tourism. It considers threats to the sustainable use of waterfall resources posed by power schemes and, particularly, by the tourist industry itself. Queensland’s Gold Coast is selected as a case study, and comparisons are made with other areas in which waterfalls have played important roles as tourist attractions, especially the Yorkshire coast of northeast England. The discussion draws largely on an examination of tourist literature from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century, including holiday brochures and guide books, as well as other published sources, together with field observation in various parts of the world

Destination Positioning Slogans - Analysis of Themes used by New Zealand Regional Tourism Organisations

A significant gap in the tourism and travel literature exists in the area of tourism destination branding. Although brands have been used as sources of differentiation in consumer goods markets for over a century, academic research attention towards destination branding has only been reported since the late 1990s. Three important components of the brand construct are brand identity, brand position and brand image. While interest in applications of brand theory to practise in tourism is increasing, there is a paucity of published research in the literature to guide destination marketing organisations (DMOs). In particular there have been few reported analyses of destination brand positioning slogans. The focus of this paper is on destination brand position slogans, which represent the interface between brand identity and brand image. Part of a wider investigation of DMO slogans worldwide, and in keeping with the conference location, the paper focuses on analysis of slogans used by New Zealand RTOs. The slogans are examined in terms of the extent to which they have been limited to ephemeral indifference. In other words, have they stood the test of time and do they effectively differentiate through a meaningful proposition? Analysis of the slogans indicates very few could be characterised as memorably distinctive. This reflects the complexity involved in capturing the essence of a multi-attributed destination in a succinct and focused positioning slogan, in a way that is both meaningful to the target audience and effectively differentiates the destination from competitors offering the same benefits.

Tourism Destination Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Consumer Decision Sets

There have only been a small number of applications of consumer decision set theory to holiday destination choice, and these studies have tended to rely on a single cross sectional snapshot of research participants’ stated preferences. Very little has been reported on the relationship between stated destination preferences and actual travel, or changes in decision set composition over time. The paper presents a rare longitudinal examination of destination decision sets, in the context of short break holidays by car in Queensland, Australia. Two questionnaires were administered, three months apart. The first identified destination preferences while the second examined actual travel and revisited destination preferences. In relation to the conference theme, there was very little change in consumer preferences towards the competitive set of destinations over the three month period. A key implication for the destination of interest, which, in an attempt to change market perceptions, launched a new brand campaign during the period of the project, is that a long term investment in a consistent brand message will be required to change market perceptions. The results go some way to support the proposition that the positioning of a destination into a consumer’s decision set represents a source of competitive advantage.

Waterfalls : resources for tourism

While very few waterfalls may be regarded as tourism destinations, many are attractions. This paper discusses waterfalls within the theoretical frameworks developed by economists and geographers in the field of recreation and tourism. Examples are drawn from various parts of the world, including the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, with Jamaica examined as a case study. Here, as in many tourism areas, although visitors usually choose their destinations for reasons other than the appeal of waterfalls, these landscape features play important roles as attractions. Often associated with ecotourism, waterfalls help to diversify the tourism product and spread the benefits as well as some of the associated problems of tourism to less developed areas.

Forecasting trends in the Brisbane central business district office market

The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.

Augmenting competitiveness of cities through tourism planning : the role of collaborative decision support systems

Many cities around the globe are now considering tourism facilities and their remarkable revenues in order to become competitive in the global economy. In many of these cities a great emphasis is given to the cultural tourism as it plays an important role in the establishment of creative and knowledge-base of cities. The literature points out the importance of local community support in cultural tourism. In such context, the use of new approach and technologies in tourism planning in order to increase the community participation and competitiveness of cities’ cultural assets gains a great significance. This paper advocates a new planning approach for tourism planning, particularly for cultural tourism, to increase the competitiveness of cities. As part of this new approach, the paper introduces the joined up planning approach integrated with a collaborative decision support system: ‘the community-oriented decision support system’. This collaborative planning support system is an effective and efficient tool for cultural tourism planning, which provides a platform for local communities’ participation in the development decision process.

Creativity, culture and tourism : the case of Istanbul and London film industries

During the last decade many cities have sought to promote creativity as a driver for economic growth. They have done this by encouraging specific sectors of creative industries. This paper focuses on the film industry as one of these sectors which also has a high level of interaction with place. Film industry, has had an important role in incubating the creativity potential. It can be a powerful magnet for creative people, fostering indigenous creativity and attracting outside talent, and might thus contribute to the formation of creative cities. This recent research suggests that the film industry has positively effect on tourism by increasing place recognition through the locations used in films and for cities that host film festivals. Film festivals provide events, workshops and experiences that allow visitors to express themselves through interaction with the place and its living culture. This paper examines the importance of creative industries for both urban development and sustainable tourism. To explore the relation between creative tourism, culture and the film industry and its effect on successful tourism planning this paper presents the preliminary findings of case studies of the film industry in Beyo