Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

L-infinity norms of holomorphic modular forms in the case of compact quotient

We prove a sub-convex estimate for the sup-norm of L-2-normalized holomorphic modular forms of weight k on the upper half plane, with respect to the unit group of a quaternion division algebra over Q. More precisely we show that when the L-2 norm of an eigenfunction f is one, parallel to f parallel to(infinity) <<(epsilon) k(1/2-1/33+epsilon) for any epsilon > 0 and for all k sufficiently large.

石羊河下游民勤绿洲地下水矿化度的时空变异

结合地理信息系统,运用地统计学方法研究石羊河下游民勤绿洲近15年来的地下水矿化度的时空变异规律及其与土地利用变化的关系。结果表明:(1)在1987年和2001年的两个时期地下水矿化度的实验变异函数值与理论变异函数拟合较好,F检验达到极显著水平;(2)地下水矿化度在4km以下小尺度上的随机变异SHR特别小,而在4～40km的中尺度上的结构性变异SHA达99.9%,可以认为研究区域内地下水矿化度在整个尺度上具有恒定的变异;(3)Kriging插值及其与同期的绿洲景观类型图进行叠加运算表明,在变化趋势上,除坝区东南部略有下降外,整个绿洲地下水矿化度都增大,北部湖区最显著;在变化面积上,地下水矿化度在3.0g/L以下的面积从1987年的75.26%降到了2001年的58.54%;而其>4.5g/L的绿洲主要集中在湖区。地下水矿化度较低区域的耕地面积减少,而地下水矿化度3.0g/L以上的耕地面积从7.03%增加到了14.32%,特别是湖区,地下水的矿化已严重威胁到了耕地的存在。

海北高寒草甸生态系统实验站地区的土地覆盖动态变化研究

利用1987和2001年TM卫星遥感数据,在GIS的支持下对海北站土地覆盖变化进行了监测,14年来该区耕地面积增加迅速,高覆盖天然草地面积减少,中、低覆盖天然草地面积增加,湖泊、湿地萎缩,裸岩、沙地、裸土面积扩张,荒漠化程度加剧。

Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II

The performance of boreal winter forecasts made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 11 Seasonal Forecasting System is investigated through analyses of ensemble hindcasts for the period 1987-2001. The predictability, or signal-to-noise ratio, associated with the forecasts, and the forecast skill are examined. On average, forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) have skill in most of the Tropics and in a few regions of the extratropics. There is broad, but not perfect, agreement between regions of high predictability and regions of high skill. However, model errors are also identified, in particular regions where the forecast ensemble spread appears too small. For individual winters the information provided by t-values, a simple measure of the forecast signal-to-noise ratio, is investigated. For 2 m surface air temperature (T2m), highest t-values are found in the Tropics but there is considerable interannual variability, and in the tropical Atlantic and Indian basins this variability is not directly tied to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. For GPH there is also large interannual variability in t-values, but these variations cannot easily be predicted from the strength of the tropical sea-surface-temperature anomalies. It is argued that the t-values for 500 hPa GPH can give valuable insight into the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere that generates predictable signals in the model. Consequently, t-values may be a useful tool for understanding, at a mechanistic level, forecast successes and failures. Lastly, the extent to which t-values are useful as a predictor of forecast skill is investigated. For T2m, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill in both the Tropics and extratropics. Except in the equatorial east Pacific, most of the information in t-values is associated with interannual variability of the ensemble-mean forecast rather than interannual variability of the ensemble spread. For GPH, however, t-values provide a useful predictor of forecast skill only in the tropical Pacific region.