900 resultados para system dynamics analysis
Resumo:
Magnetic nanoparticles (NP) of magnetite (Fe(3)O(4)) coated with oleic acid (OA) and dodecanoic acid (DA) were synthesized and investigated through transmission electron microscopy (TEM), magnetization M, and ac magnetic susceptibility measurements. The OA coated samples were produced with different magnetic concentrations (78%, 76%, and 65%) and the DA sample with 63% of Fe(3)O(4). Images from TEM indicate that the NP have a nearly spherical geometry and mean diameter similar to 5.5 nm. Magnetization measurements, performed in zero-field cooled (ZFC) and field cooled processes under different external magnetic fields H, exhibited a maximum at a given temperature T(B) in the ZFC curves, which depends on the NP coating (OA or DA), magnetite concentration, and H. The temperature T(B) decreases monotonically with increasing H and, for a given H, the increase in the magnetite concentration results in an increase in T(B). The observed behavior is related to the dipolar interaction between NP, which seems to be an important mechanism in all samples studied. This is supported by the results of the ac magnetic susceptibility chi(ac) measurements, where the temperature in which chi' peaks for different frequencies follows the Vogel-Fulcher model, a feature commonly found in systems with dipolar interactions. Curves of H versus T(B)/T(B) (H=0) for samples with different coatings and magnetite concentrations collapse into a universal curve, indicating that the qualitative magnetic behavior of the samples may be described by the NP themselves, instead of the coating or the strength of the dipolar interaction. Below T(B), M versus H curves show a coercive field (H(C)) that increases monotonically with decreasing temperature. The saturation magnetization (M(S)) follows the Bloch's law and values of M(S) at room temperature as high as 78 emu/g were estimated, a result corresponding to similar to 80% of the bulk value. The overlap of M/M(S) versus H/T curves for a given sample and the low H(C) at high temperatures suggest superparamagnetic behavior in all samples studied. The overlap of M/M(S) versus H curves at constant temperature for different samples indicates that the NP magnetization behavior is preserved, independently of the coating and magnetite concentration. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3311611]
Resumo:
Diffuse infiltrating gliomas are the most common tumors of the central nervous system. Gliomas are classified by the WHO according to their histopathological and clinical characteristics into four classes: grade I (pilocytic astrocytoma), grade II (diffuse astrocytoma), grade III (anaplastic astrocytoma), and grade IV (glioblastoma multiforme). Several genes have already been correlated with astrocytomas, but many others are yet to be uncovered. By analyzing the public SAGE data from 21 patients, comprising low malignant grade astrocytomas and glioblastomas, we found COL6A1 to be differentially expressed, confirming this finding by real time RT-PCR in 66 surgical samples. To the best of our knowledge, COL6A1 has never been described in gliomas. The expression of this gene has significantly different means when normal glia is compared with low-grade astrocytomas (grades I and II) and high-grade astrocytomas (grades III and IV), with a tendency to be greater in higher grade samples, thus rendering it a powerful tumor marker.
Resumo:
The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.
Resumo:
Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability has seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of 6 case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.
Resumo:
Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.
Resumo:
Kallmann syndrome (KS), characterized by the association of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and anosmia, may present many other phenotypic abnormalities, including neurologic features as involuntary movements, called mirror movements (MM). MM etiology probably involves a complex mechanism comprising corticospinal tract abnormal development associated with deficient contralateral motor cortex inhibitory system. In this study, in order to address previous hypotheses concerning MM etiology, we identified and quantified white matter (WM) alterations in 21 KS patients, comparing subjects with and without MM and 16 control subjects, using magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) and T2 relaxometry (R2). Magnetization transfer and 12 double-echo images were acquired in a 1.5 T system. MTR and R2 were calculated pixel by pixel to initially create individual maps, and then, group average maps, co-registered with MNI305 stereotaxic coordinate system. After analysis of selected regions of interest, we demonstrated areas with higher 12 relaxation time and lower MTR values in KS patients, with and without MM, differently involving corticospinal tract projection, frontal lobes and corpus callosum. Higher MTR was observed only in pyramidal decussation when compared in both groups of patients with controls. In conclusion, we demonstrated that patients with KS have altered WM areas, presenting in a different manner in patients with and without MM. These data suggest axonal loss or disorganization involving abnormal pyramidal tracts and other associative/connective areas, relating to the presence or absence of MM. We also found a different pattern of alteration in pyramidal decussation, which can represent the primary area of neuronal disarrangement. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The principal malaria vector in the Philippines, Anopheles flavirostris (Ludlow) (Diptera: Culicidae), is regarded as 'shade-loving' for its breeding sites, i.e. larval habitats. This long-standing belief, based on circumstantial observations rather than ecological analysis, has guided larval control methods such as 'stream-clearing' or the removal of riparian vegetation, to reduce the local abundance of An. flavirostris . We measured the distribution and abundance of An. flavirostris larvae in relation to canopy vegetation cover along a stream in Quezon Province, the Philippines. Estimates of canopy openness and light measurements were obtained by an approximation method that used simplified assumptions about the sun, and by hemispherical photographs analysed using the program hemiphot(C) . The location of larvae, shade and other landscape features was incorporated into a geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Early larval instars of An. flavirostris were found to be clustered and more often present in shadier sites, whereas abundance was higher in sunnier sites. For later instars, distribution was more evenly dispersed and only weakly related to shade. The best predictor of late-instar larvae was the density of early instars. Distribution and abundance of larvae were related over time (24 days). This pattern indicates favoured areas for oviposition and adult emergence, and may be predictable. Canopy measurements by the approximation method correlated better with larval abundance than hemispherical photography, being economical and practical for field use. Whereas shade or shade-related factors apparently have effects on larval distribution of An. flavirostris , they do not explain it completely. Until more is known about the bionomics of this vector and the efficacy and environmental effects of stream-clearing, we recommend caution in the use of this larval control method.
Resumo:
Este trabalho teve como objetivo utilizar a lógica fuzzy para geração de zonas de manejo, na área agrária e ambiental. Uma das aplicações consistiu da utilização do método fuzzy C-means, para geração de zonas de manejo para a cultura do mamoeiro, em um plantio comercial localizado em São Mateus-ES, com base em determinações realizadas através de amostragens e análises químicas do solo, considerando os atributos: P, K, Ca, Mg, e Saturação por bases (V%). Aplicou-se também a lógica fuzzy para desenvolver e executar um procedimento para dar suporte ao processo de tomada de decisões, envolvendo análise multicritério, gerando mapas de adequabilidade ao uso público e a conservação no Parque Estadual da Cachoeira da Fumaça, no município de Alegre-ES, considerando como fatores a localização da cachoeira, o uso do solo, os recursos hídricos, as trilhas, os locais de acessos, a infraestrutura, a declividade da área, e utilizando a abordagem de Sistema de Informações Geográficas para análise e combinação da base de dados. A partir das zonas de manejo geradas, foi possível explicar a variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo na área de estudo da cultura do mamoeiro, e observa-se que as similaridades entre as zonas geradas, a partir de diferentes atributos, mostrou variação, mas observa-se uma influência nos dados, principalmente pelos atributos P e V. A partir do zoneamento da Unidade de Conservação foi possível selecionar áreas mais aptas ao ecoturismo, sendo encontradas próximas da cachoeira, trilhas em zonas de reflorestamento e de Mata Atlântica. Quanto às áreas propensas a medidas de conservação localizam-se próximas à cachoeira e às estruturas do parque, devido à maior pressão antrópica exercida nesses locais. Outras áreas que se destacaram, foram as áreas de pastagem, por estarem em estágio de regeneração natural. Os resultados indicam áreas de mesmo potencial de produção do mamoeiro, ou quando aplicado à área ambiental, áreas que devem receber maior cuidado para utilização por ecoturismo e para preservação e servem de base para a tomada de decisões, visando melhor aproveitamento da área.
Resumo:
Risk management can be considered as part of the Occupational Health and Safety System (OHS) of an organization and can be used to develop and implement the OHS policy and manage the associated risks. The success of the integration of risk management in OHS depends on both technical and human aspects. Thus, this paper presents and discusses the case of a company working in the area of solid waste treatment. This company was certified in 2009 with an Integrated Management Systems for Quality, Environment, Occupational Health and Safety. The evolution of accidents before and after the implementation of the integrated system was analysed and a questionnaire was used to capture the perceptions of the technicians on the risk management system. The analysis of the findings showed that the frequency of accidents increased since 2009 but the severity has been reduced. Several interrelated causes and consequences were analysed and discussed. Furthermore, the analysis of the opinions of the company’s technicians permitted to highlight some important aspects on the integration of risk management in the OHS system of the company. In line with this discussion some hypothesis have been formulated.
Resumo:
This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.
Resumo:
O Balanced Scorecard (BSC) tem vindo a revelar-se um conceito popular como ferramenta de suporte à descrição e implementação da estratégia organizacional. Esta abordagem propõe que os gestores se foquem no desenvolvimento e utilização dum número reduzido de indicadores críticos de desempenho, financeiros e não financeiros, que combinam diferentes disciplinas e perspectivas da organização e que estão articulados numa cadeia causal que explica de forma consistente o desempenho futuro de acordo com a estratégia formulada. Contudo, diversas dúvidas e críticas tem emergido relativamente à qualidade do processo de desenvolvimento do BSC e que colocam em causa a consistência e a validade da estrutura de indicadores que constitui o instrumento fundamental para o controlo da implementação da estratégia. Com o propósito de ultrapassar estes problemas, uma abordagem baseada na modelação e simulação dinâmica (dinâmica de sistemas) é proposta como suporte ao processo de desenvolvimento do BSC. Esta abordagem permite acelerar e melhorar a aprendizagem dos gestores acerca do processo de criação futura de valor que está associado à estratégia formulada e respectiva implementação, contribuindo assim para a validade e consistência da estrutura de indicadores do BSC.
Resumo:
Portugal has the largest LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) share of primary energy demand in the EU (about 5%). Due to the increasing international cost of LPG in the last years and the high price sensitivity of the consumers the preference for substitute energy sources in new and existing consumers has been increasing. To select the kind of energy, some consumer estimate and compare the total costs while others follow agents (equipment sellers) recommendations. It takes time to build agents perception about the most advantageous source of energy, which is seen as an important resource that drives client resource accumulation and retention. Marketing strategies have to take into consideration some market dynamic effects derived from the accumulation and depletion of these resources. A simple system dynamics model was built, combined with Economic Value Added framework, to evaluate some pricing strategies under different scenarios of LPG international cost.
Resumo:
This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision
Resumo:
O Balanced Scorecard (BSC) tem vindo a revelar-se um conceito popular como ferramenta de suporte à descrição e implementação da estratégia organizacional. Esta abordagem propõe que os gestores se foquem no desenvolvimento e utilização dum número reduzido de indicadores críticos de desempenho, financeiros e não financeiros, que combinam diferentes disciplinas e perspectivas da organização e que estão articulados numa cadeia causal que explica de forma consistente o desempenho futuro de acordo com a estratégia formulada. Contudo, diversas dúvidas e críticas tem emergido relativamente à qualidade do processo de desenvolvimento do BSC e que colocam em causa a consistência e a validade da estrutura de indicadores que constitui o instrumento fundamental para o controlo da implementação da estratégia. Com o propósito de ultrapassar estes problemas, uma abordagem baseada na modelação e simulação dinâmica (dinâmica de sistemas) é proposta como suporte ao processo de desenvolvimento do BSC. Esta abordagem permite acelerar e melhorar a aprendizagem dos gestores acerca do processo de criação futura de valor que está associado à estratégia formulada e respectiva implementação, contribuindo assim para a validade e consistência da estrutura de indicadores do BSC.