Processos de auto-regulação no curso de vida: controle primário e controle secundário

Este artigo discute conceitos relevantes à perspectiva do curso de vida, porém pouco difundidos no Brasil: controle primário e controle secundário. O primeiro se refere aos esforços que o indivíduo empreende para adaptar o ambiente às suas necessidades; o segundo, para se adaptar ao ambiente. Apresenta-se a formulação original dos conceitos como modelo de dois processos de controle, em oposição a modelos de processo único, como o do desamparo aprendido. Em seguida, discute-se revisão conceitual que trouxe modificação e ampliação para estes construtos, concebendo-os em um modelo bidimensional que articula controle primário e secundário com os conceitos de seleção e compensação. Nesse processo, apresentam-se contribuições no intuito de estimular a reflexão e expandir a discussão teórico-conceitual que envolve estes construtos.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Changes in subduction in the South Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century in the CCSM3

The Community Climate System Model version 3 is used to analyse changes in water mass subduction rates in the South Atlantic Ocean over the 21st century. The model results are first compared to observations over 1950-2000, and shown to be rather good. The subduction rates do not change significantly over the 21st century, but the densities at which water masses form become significantly lighter. The strong westerly winds in this region do not change much, which suggests small changes to the rate at which the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean takes up heat and carbon dioxide over the 21st century.

Effects of irrigation on water use and water use efficiency in two fast growing Eucalyptus plantations

Eucalyptus plantations occupy almost 20 million ha worldwide and exceed 3.7 million ha in Brazil alone. Improved genetics and silviculture have led to as much as a three-fold increase in productivity in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil and the large land area occupied by these highly productive ecosystems raises concern over their effect on local water supplies. As part of the Brazil Potential Productivity Project, we measured water use of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla clones in rainfed and irrigated stands in two plantations differing in productivity. The Aracruz (lower productivity) site is located in the state of Espirito Santo and the Veracel (higher productivity) site in Bahia state. At each plantation, we measured stand water use using homemade sap flow sensors and a calibration curve using the clones and probes we utilized in the study. We also quantified changes in growth, leaf area and water use efficiency (the amount of wood produced per unit of water transpired). Measurements were conducted for 1 year during 2005 at Aracruz and from August through December 2005 at Veracel. Transpiration at both sites was high compared to other studies but annual estimates at Aracruz for the rainfed treatment compared well with a process model calibrated for the Aracruz site (within 10%). Annual water use at Aracruz was 1394 mm in rainfed treatments versus 1779 mm in irrigated treatments and accounted for approximately 67% and 58% of annual precipitation and irrigation inputs respectively. Increased water use in the irrigated stands at Aracruz was associated with higher sapwood area, leaf area index and transpiration per unit leaf area but there was no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency at the Aracruz site was also not influenced by irrigation and was similar to the rainfed treatment. During the period of overlapping measurements, the response to irrigation treatments at the more productive Veracel site was similar to Aracruz. Stand water use at the Veracel site totaled 975 mm and 1102 mm in rainfed and irrigated treatments during the 5-month measurement period respectively. Irrigated stands at Veracel also had higher leaf area with no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency was also unaffected by irrigation at Veracel. Results from this and other studies suggest that improved resource availability does not negatively impact water use efficiency but increased productivity of these plantations is associated with higher water use and should be given consideration during plantation management decision making processes aimed at increasing productivity. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changes in the intermediate water mass formation rates in the global ocean for the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climates

The paleoclimate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 (NCAR-CCSM3) is used to analyze changes in the water formation rates in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) control climate. During the MH, CCSM3 exhibits a north-south asymmetric response of intermediate water subduction changes in the Atlantic Ocean, with a reduction of 2 Sv in the North Atlantic and an increase of 2 Sv in the South Atlantic relative to PI. During the LGM, there is increased formation of intermediate water and a more stagnant deep ocean in the North Pacific. The production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is significantly weakened. The NADW is replaced in large extent by enhanced Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), and also by an intensified of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), with the latter being a response to the enhanced salinity and ice formation around Antarctica. Most of the LGM intermediate/mode water is formed at 27.4 < sigma(theta) < 29.0 kg/m(3), while for the MH and PI most of the subduction transport occurs at 26.5 < sigma(theta) < 27.4 kg/m(3). The simulated LGM Southern Hemisphere winds are more intense by 0.2-0.4 dyne/cm(2). Consequently, increased Ekman transport drives the production of intermediate water (low salinity) at a larger rate and at higher densities when compared to the other climatic periods.

Comparative analysis of the pathological events involved in immune and non-immune TRALI models

Background and Objectives Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is characterized by leukocyte transmigration and alveolar capillary leakage shortly after transfusion. TRALI pathogenesis has not been fully elucidated. In some cases, the infusion of alloantibodies (immune model), whereas in others the combination of neutrophil priming by proinflammatory molecules with the subsequent infusion of biological response modifiers (BRMs) in the hemocomponent (non-immune model) have been implicated. Our aim was to compare the pathological events involved in TRALI induced by antibodies or BRMs using murine models. Materials and Methods In the immune model, human HNA-2+ neutrophils were incubated in vitro with a monoclonal antibody (anti-CD177, clone 7D8) directed against the HNA-2 antigen and injected i.v. in NOD/SCID mice. In the non-immune model, BALB/c mice were treated with low doses of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) followed by platelet-activating factor (PAF) infusion 2 h later. Forty minutes after PAF administration, or 6 h after neutrophil injection, lungs were isolated and histological analysis, determination of a variety of cytokines and chemokines including keratinocyte-derived chemokine (KC), MIP-2, the interleukins IL-1 beta, IL-6, IL-8 as well as TNFa, cell influx and alveolar capillary leakage were performed. Results In both models, characteristic histological findings of TRALI and an increase in KC and MIP-2 levels were detected. In contrast to the immune model, in the non-immune model, there was a dramatic increase in IL-1 beta and TNFa. However, capillary leakage was only detected if PAF was administrated. Conclusions Regardless of the triggering event(s), KC, MIP-2 and integrins participate in TRALI pathogenesis, whereas PAF is essential for capillary leakage when two events are involved.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

The Southern Ocean and Its Climate in CCSM4

The new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth's climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth's climate and its variability.

Effect of the Canary Islands in the blockage and mixing of the North Atlantic eastern water masses

[EN] We apply an inverse model to a hydrographic cruise that completely closes the Canary Islands to investigate their effect on the water masses transports. Most central waters are transported south between the eastern islands and the African coast, with 2.5 Sv out of a total of 3.5 Sv. Intermediate waters are effectively blocked by the islands passages, with Mediterranean/Antarctic waters predominantly found north/south of the islands, and most deep waters loop around the archipelago plateau. A process model upholds the existence of intense two-way exchange between central and intermediate waters along the eastern passage, with vertical velocities of order 10 m s.

Asset management of wastewater networks

Asset Management (AM) is a set of procedures operable at the strategic-tacticaloperational level, for the management of the physical asset’s performance, associated risks and costs within its whole life-cycle. AM combines the engineering, managerial and informatics points of view. In addition to internal drivers, AM is driven by the demands of customers (social pull) and regulators (environmental mandates and economic considerations). AM can follow either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Considering rehabilitation planning at the bottom-up level, the main issue would be to rehabilitate the right pipe at the right time with the right technique. Finding the right pipe may be possible and practicable, but determining the timeliness of the rehabilitation and the choice of the techniques adopted to rehabilitate is a bit abstruse. It is a truism that rehabilitating an asset too early is unwise, just as doing it late may have entailed extra expenses en route, in addition to the cost of the exercise of rehabilitation per se. One is confronted with a typical ‘Hamlet-isque dilemma’ – ‘to repair or not to repair’; or put in another way, ‘to replace or not to replace’. The decision in this case is governed by three factors, not necessarily interrelated – quality of customer service, costs and budget in the life cycle of the asset in question. The goal of replacement planning is to find the juncture in the asset’s life cycle where the cost of replacement is balanced by the rising maintenance costs and the declining level of service. System maintenance aims at improving performance and maintaining the asset in good working condition for as long as possible. Effective planning is used to target maintenance activities to meet these goals and minimize costly exigencies. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a process-model for asset replacement planning. The aim of the model is to determine the optimal pipe replacement year by comparing, temporally, the annual operating and maintenance costs of the existing asset and the annuity of the investment in a new equivalent pipe, at the best market price. It is proposed that risk cost provide an appropriate framework to decide the balance between investment for replacing or operational expenditures for maintaining an asset. The model describes a practical approach to estimate when an asset should be replaced. A comprehensive list of criteria to be considered is outlined, the main criteria being a visà- vis between maintenance and replacement expenditures. The costs to maintain the assets should be described by a cost function related to the asset type, the risks to the safety of people and property owing to declining condition of asset, and the predicted frequency of failures. The cost functions reflect the condition of the existing asset at the time the decision to maintain or replace is taken: age, level of deterioration, risk of failure. The process model is applied in the wastewater network of Oslo, the capital city of Norway, and uses available real-world information to forecast life-cycle costs of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and support infrastructure management decisions. The case study provides an insight into the various definitions of ‘asset lifetime’ – service life, economic life and physical life. The results recommend that one common value for lifetime should not be applied to the all the pipelines in the stock for investment planning in the long-term period; rather it would be wiser to define different values for different cohorts of pipelines to reduce the uncertainties associated with generalisations for simplification. It is envisaged that more criteria the municipality is able to include, to estimate maintenance costs for the existing assets, the more precise will the estimation of the expected service life be. The ability to include social costs enables to compute the asset life, not only based on its physical characterisation, but also on the sensitivity of network areas to social impact of failures. The type of economic analysis is very sensitive to model parameters that are difficult to determine accurately. The main value of this approach is the effort to demonstrate that it is possible to include, in decision-making, factors as the cost of the risk associated with a decline in level of performance, the level of this deterioration and the asset’s depreciation rate, without looking at age as the sole criterion for making decisions regarding replacements.

Creazione e sviluppo di un sistema di controllo in tempo reale per un sistema fuel cell

The control of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell system (PEM FC) for domestic heat and power supply requires extensive control measures to handle the complicated process. Highly dynamic and non linear behavior, increase drastically the difficulties to find the optimal design and control strategies. The objective is to design, implement and commission a controller for the entire fuel cell system. The fuel cell process and the control system are engineered simultaneously; therefore there is no access to the process hardware during the control system development. Therefore the method of choice was a model based design approach, following the rapid control prototyping (RCP) methodology. The fuel cell system is simulated using a fuel cell library which allowed thermodynamic calculations. In the course of the development the process model is continuously adapted to the real system. The controller application is designed and developed in parallel and thereby tested and verified against the process model. Furthermore, after the commissioning of the real system, the process model can be also better identified and parameterized utilizing measurement data to perform optimization procedures. The process model and the controller application are implemented in Simulink using Mathworks` Real Time Workshop (RTW) and the xPC development suite for MiL (model-in-theloop) and HiL (hardware-in-the-loop) testing. It is possible to completely develop, verify and validate the controller application without depending on the real fuel cell system, which is not available for testing during the development process. The fuel cell system can be immediately taken into operation after connecting the controller to the process.

Satisfaction with follow-up consultations among younger adults treated for cancer: the role of quality of life and psychological variables

Given increased survival rates and treatment-related late effects, follow-up for cancer survivors is increasingly recommended. However, information about adverse events (e.g. possibility of late effects) may be distressing for the cancer survivor and lead to poor clinic attendance. Survivor satisfaction with appointments and the information provided are important. The Monitoring Process Model provides a theoretical framework to understand how survivors cope with threatening information, and consequences for follow-up care. Our aims were to describe satisfaction with routine follow-up and association between monitoring/blunting and satisfaction with care.

Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

Sensitivity of pelagic calcification to ocean acidification

Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the effect of (i) using different parameterizations of CaCO3 production fitted to available laboratory and field experiments, of (ii) letting calcite and aragonite be produced by auto- and heterotrophic plankton groups, and of (iii) using carbon emissions from the range of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Under a high-emission scenario, the CaCO3 production of all the model versions decreases from ~1 Pg C yr−1 to between 0.36 and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 by the year 2100. The changes in CaCO3 production and dissolution resulting from ocean acidification provide only a small feedback on atmospheric CO2 of −1 to −11 ppm by the year 2100, despite the wide range of parameterizations, model versions and scenarios included in our study. A potential upper limit of the CO2-calcification/dissolution feedback of −30 ppm by the year 2100 is computed by setting calcification to zero after 2000 in a high 21st century emission scenario. The similarity of feedback estimates yielded by the model version with calcite produced by nanophytoplankton and the one with calcite, respectively aragonite produced by mesozooplankton suggests that expending biogeochemical models to calcifying zooplankton might not be needed to simulate biogeochemical impacts on the marine carbonate cycle. The changes in saturation state confirm previous studies indicating that future anthropogenic CO2 emissions may lead to irreversible changes in ΩA for several centuries. Furthermore, due to the long-term changes in the deep ocean, the ratio of open water CaCO3 dissolution to production stabilizes by the year 2500 at a value that is 30–50% higher than at pre-industrial times when carbon emissions are set to zero after 2100.

The Influence of Enterprise Systems on Business and Information Technology

Business strategy is important to all organizations. Nearly all Fortune 500 firms are implementing Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems to improve the execution of their business strategy and to improve integration with its information technology (IT) strategy. Successful implementation of these multi-million dollar software systems are requiring new emphasis on change management and on Business and IT strategic alignment. This paper examines business and IT strategic alignment and seeks to explore whether an ERP implementation can drive business process reengineering and business and IT strategic alignment. An overview of business strategy and strategic alignment are followed by an analysis of ERP. The “As-Is/To-Be” process model is then presented and explained as a simple, but vital tool for improving business strategy, strategic alignment, and ERP implementation success.