890 resultados para real option analysis


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Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

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The inherent uncertainty and complexity of construction work make construction planning a particularly difficult task for project managers due to the need to anticipate and visualize likely future events. Conventional computer-assisted technology can help but is often limited to the constructability issues involved. Virtual prototyping, however, offers an improved method through the visualization of construction activities by computer simulation — enabling a range of ‘what-if’ questions to be asked and their implications on the total project to be investigated. This paper describes the use of virtual prototyping to optimize construction planning schedules by analyzing resource allocation and planning with integrated construction models, resource models, construction planning schedules and site-layout plans. A real-life case study is presented that demonstrates the use of a virtual prototyping enabled resource analysis to reallocate space, logistic on access road and arrange tower cranes to achieve a 6-day floor construction cycle.

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The refractive error of a human eye varies across the pupil and therefore may be treated as a random variable. The probability distribution of this random variable provides a means for assessing the main refractive properties of the eye without the necessity of traditional functional representation of wavefront aberrations. To demonstrate this approach, the statistical properties of refractive error maps are investigated. Closed-form expressions are derived for the probability density function (PDF) and its statistical moments for the general case of rotationally-symmetric aberrations. A closed-form expression for a PDF for a general non-rotationally symmetric wavefront aberration is difficult to derive. However, for specific cases, such as astigmatism, a closed-form expression of the PDF can be obtained. Further, interpretation of the distribution of the refractive error map as well as its moments is provided for a range of wavefront aberrations measured in real eyes. These are evaluated using a kernel density and sample moments estimators. It is concluded that the refractive error domain allows non-functional analysis of wavefront aberrations based on simple statistics in the form of its sample moments. Clinicians may find this approach to wavefront analysis easier to interpret due to the clinical familiarity and intuitive appeal of refractive error maps.

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Falling represents a health risk for lower limb amputees fitted with an osseointegrated fixation mainly because of the potential damage to the fixation. The purpose of this study was to characterise a real forward fall that occurred inadvertently to a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation while attending a gait measurement session to assess the load applied on the residuum. The objective was to analyse the load applied on the fixation with an emphasis on the sequence of events, the pattern and the magnitude of the forces and moments. The load was measured directly at 200 Hz using a six-channel transducer. Complementary video footage was also studied. The fall was divided into four phases: loading (240 ms), descent (620 ms), impact (365 ms) and recovery (2495 ms). The main impact forces and moments occurred 870 ms and 915 ms after the heel contact, and corresponded to 133 %BW and 17 %BWm, or 1.2 and 11.2 times the maximum forces and moments applied during the previous steps of the participant, respectively. This study provided key information to engineers and clinicians facing the challenge to design equipment, and rehabilitation and exercise programs to restore safely the locomotion of lower limb amputees.

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Timberland is seen as a long-term investment which has recently received increased institutional investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) timberland series, this paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of timberland in the United States over the period of 1987-2007. U.S. timberland is seen to have been a strongly performed asset class with significant portfolio diversification benefits over this period; with a significant portfolio role separate to that of real estate. However, recent years have seen reduced risk-adjusted returns, with some loss of portfolio diversification benefits of timberland with stocks and real estate. Global drivers are likely to see increased future demand for timberland investment.

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Regardless of ‘bear’ or ‘bull’ markets, the great Australian dream remains to own your own home. Central to this dream of home ownership is unflagging interest in the property market, reflected in bulging real estate news sections of newspapers in South East Queensland, the focus area for this thesis research. While there has been much scholarly research into other areas of public relations spin and its impact on news-gathering processes, there appears to be next to no research on real estate spin, how it is prepared and by whom, and journalism’s attitude to and the managing of the spin. Real estate spin remains an under-researched topic requiring further investigation not only in South East Queensland but Australia-wide given the ‘big bucks’ allotted to the promotion of real estate and the income it generates for news media outlets, particularly newspapers. This thesis examines the influence of public relations practitioners and journalists specialising in real estate spin through interviews, content analysis, and how real estate spin envelopes itself in today’s society. From content analyses and observations of journalism in the real estate rounds of the two major newspapers in South East Queensland, I found that journalists were using massive quantities of real estate spin supplied by PR practitioners and other associated industry sources. This spin is supplanting investigative newsroom journalism, thus allowing newspapers to operate with minimal staffing levels yet still able to publish large weekly real estate news sections. My research also revealed growing commercialisation of real estate news through increasing outsourcing of journalistic work to a writing bureau, which could jeopardise both the professions of journalism and public relations in the future.

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Today’s evolving networks are experiencing a large number of different attacks ranging from system break-ins, infection from automatic attack tools such as worms, viruses, trojan horses and denial of service (DoS). One important aspect of such attacks is that they are often indiscriminate and target Internet addresses without regard to whether they are bona fide allocated or not. Due to the absence of any advertised host services the traffic observed on unused IP addresses is by definition unsolicited and likely to be either opportunistic or malicious. The analysis of large repositories of such traffic can be used to extract useful information about both ongoing and new attack patterns and unearth unusual attack behaviors. However, such an analysis is difficult due to the size and nature of the collected traffic on unused address spaces. In this dissertation, we present a network traffic analysis technique which uses traffic collected from unused address spaces and relies on the statistical properties of the collected traffic, in order to accurately and quickly detect new and ongoing network anomalies. Detection of network anomalies is based on the concept that an anomalous activity usually transforms the network parameters in such a way that their statistical properties no longer remain constant, resulting in abrupt changes. In this dissertation, we use sequential analysis techniques to identify changes in the behavior of network traffic targeting unused address spaces to unveil both ongoing and new attack patterns. Specifically, we have developed a dynamic sliding window based non-parametric cumulative sum change detection techniques for identification of changes in network traffic. Furthermore we have introduced dynamic thresholds to detect changes in network traffic behavior and also detect when a particular change has ended. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the operational effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach, using both synthetically generated datasets and real network traces collected from a dedicated block of unused IP addresses.

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Staphylococcus aureus is a common pathogen that causes a variety of infections including soft tissue infections, impetigo, septicemia toxic shock and scalded skin syndrome. Traditionally, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was considered a Hospital-Acquired (HA) infection. It is now recognised that the frequency of infections with MRSA is increasing in the community, and that these infections are not originating from hospital environments. A 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that Staphylococcus aureus is the most important cause of serious and fatal infections in the USA. Community-Acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) are genetically diverse and distinct, meaning they are able to be identified and tracked by way of genotyping. Genotyping of MRSA using Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring MRSA, specifically ST93 (Queensland Clone) dissemination in the community. It has been shown that a large proportion of CA-MRSA infections in Queensland and New South Wales are caused by ST93. The rationale for this project was that SNP analysis of MLST genes is a rapid and cost-effective method for genotyping and monitoring MRSA dissemination in the community. In this study, 16 different sequence types (ST) were identified with 41% of isolates identified as ST93 making it the predominate clone. Males and Females were infected equally with an average patient age of 45yrs. Phenotypically, all of the ST93 had an identical antimicrobial resistance pattern. They were resistant to the β-lactams – Penicillin, Flu(di)cloxacillin and Cephalothin but sensitive to all other antibiotics tested. Virulence factors play an important role in allowing S. aureus to cause disease by way of colonising, replication and damage to the host. One virulence factor of particular interest is the toxin Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), which is composed of two separate proteins encoded by two adjacent genes. PVL positive CA-MRSA are shown to cause recurrent, chronic or severe skin and soft tissue infections. As a result, it is important that PVL positive CA-MRSA is genotyped and tracked. Especially now that CA-MRSA infections are more prevalent than HA-MRSA infections and are now deemed endemic in Australia. 98% of all isolates in this study tested positive for the PVL toxin gene. This study showed that PVL is present in many different community based ST, not just ST93, which were all PVL positive. With this toxin becoming entrenched in CA-MRSA, genotyping would provide more accurate data and a way of tracking the dissemination. PVL gene can be sub-typed using an allele-specific Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR) followed by High resolution meltanalysis. This allows the identification of PVL subtypes within the CA-MRSA population and allow the tracking of these clones in the community.

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With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

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Many randomised controlled trials (RCT) have been conducted using Piper methysticum (kava), however no qualitative research exploring the experience of taking kava during a clinical trial has previously been reported. ---------- Patients and methods: A qualitative research component (in the form of semi structured and open ended written questions) was incorporated into an RCT to explore the experiences of those participating in a clinical trial of kava. The written questions were provided to participants at weeks 2 and 3 (after randomisation, after each controlled phase). The researcher and participants were blinded as to whether they were taking kava or placebo. Two open ended questions were posed to elucidate their experiences from taking either kava or placebo. Thematic analysis was undertaken and researcher triangulation employed to ensure analytical rigour. Key themes after the kava phases were a reduction in anxiety and stress, and calming or relaxing mental effects. Other themes related to improvement in sleep and in somatic anxiety symptoms. ---------- Results: Kava use did not cause any serious adverse reactions although a few respondents reported nausea or other gastrointestinal side effects. This represents the first documented qualitative investigation of the experience of taking kava during a clinical trial. The primary themes involved anxiolytic and calming effects, with only a minor theme reflecting side effects. Our exploratory qualitative data was consistent with the significant quantitative results revealed in the study and provides additional support to suggest the trial results did not exclude any important positive or negative effects (at least as experienced by the trial participants).