Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

Biological control of Biomphalaria tenagophila (Mollusca, Planorbidae), a schistosomiasis vector, using the fish Geophagus brasiliensis (Pisces, Cichlidae) in the laboratory or in a seminatural environment

In order to investigate a possible method of biological control of schistosomiasis, we used the fish Geophagus brasiliensis (Quoy & Gaimard, 1824) which is widely distributed throughout Brazil, to interrupt the life cycle of the snail Biomphalaria tenagophila (Orbigny, 1835), an intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni. In the laboratory, predation eliminated 97.6% of the smaller snails (3-8 mm shell diameter) and 9.2% of the larger ones (12-14 mm shell diameter). Very promising results were also obtained in a seminatural environment. Studies of this fish in natural snail habitats should be further encouraged.

Strong exceptional sequences of vector bundles on certain Fano varieties

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Observations on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with particular reference to the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

A study was made on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with special emphasis on the principal malaria vector Anopheles darlingi and on the occurrence of other possible vector species. Peridomestic human bait collections of adult mosquitoes and collections of larvae were made in many localities with a recent history of malaria transmission. Stable population of An. darlingi were only found in the interior, south of the limit of tidal influence, due to year-round availability of breeding habitats in quietly sunlit places in flooded forest areas and along river banks. In the area with tidal movement of the rivers, breeding is limited to flooded areas in the west season. Anopheles darlingi was only incidentally collected in low densities. In the interior, malaria transmission occurred in all places where An. darlingi was found. The absence of malaria transmission along the Upper Suriname River could be explained by the absence of An. darlingi. In the malaria endemic areas, An darlingi was the most numerous mosquito biting on man. In the tidal region, malaria outbreak are infrequent and might be explained by the temporary availability of favourable beeding habitats for An. darlingi. However, evidence is insufficient to incriminate an. darlingi as the vector of malaria in this region and the possible vectorial role of other anophelines is discussed.

Trypanosoma cruzi: serum antibody reactivity to the parasite antigens in susceptible and resistant mice

The specific antibody responses were compared among susceptible (A/Sn), moderately susceptible (Balb/c) and resistant (C57 BL/lOJ) mice infected with Trypanosoma cruzi (Y strain). Sera obtained during the second week of infection recognized a surface trypomastigote antigen of apparent Mr 80 kDa while displaying complex reactivity to surface epimastigote antigens. Complex trypomastigote antigens recognition was detected around the middle of the third week of infection. No major differences were observed along the infection, among the three strains of mice, neither in the patterns of surface antigen recognition by sera, nor in the titres of antibodies against blood trypomastigotes (lytic antibodies), tissue culture trypomastigotes or epimastigotes. On immunoblot analysis, however, IgG of the resistant strain displayed the most complex array of specificities against both trypo and epimastigote antigens, followed by the susceptible strain. IgM antibodies exhibited a more restricted antigen reactivity, in the three mouse strains studied. Balb/c sera (IgG and IgM) showed the least complex patterns of reactivity to antigens in the range of 30 kDa to 80 kDa. The onset of reactivity in the serum to trypomastigote surface antigens was also dependent on the parasite load to which the experimental animal was subjected.

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Are dead Triatoma infestans a competent vector of Trypanosoma cruzi?

After Triatoma infestans death, Trypanosoma cruzi survived several days, maintaining the ability to infect a vertebrate host. Dead bugs from an endemic area collected during an official spraying comapign showed mobile rectal tripanosomes up to 14 days after vector death. Two days after vector death2, 760 tripomastigotes were found alive in its rectal material. However, the number of mobile tripomastigotes decreased significantly from the 5th day after death. Laboratory proofs with third and fifth nymphal stage showed similar results. Living tripanosomes were found in their rectal material at 10 days in third stage and even at 30 days in fifth nymphal stage. The mean number of tripomastigotes had no changes up to 10 days in third nymphal stage and increased significantly from 1 to 10 days in the fifth stage. Conjuctival instillation as well as intraperitoneal innoculation to mice, of metacyclic forms from dead T. infestans produced infection in the vertebrate host. Present results show that human contact with dead vector highly probable in summer and living and infective T. cruzi are available for transmision in the vector.

A new helminth parasite of fish: Spirocamallanus freitasi sp. n. (Nematoda - Camallanidae)

A new species of nematode is described, Spirocamallanus freitasi sp. n. The worms were collected from fishes (Bergiaria westermanni, Pimelodus maculatus and Pimelodus sp.) living in Três Marias Dam (São Francisco River) in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Spirocamallanus freitasi sp. n. differs from Procamallanus iheringi, P. amarali, P. macaensis, P. (Spirocamallanus) pimelodus, P. (S.) solani and P. (S.) pereirai by having digitated larger spicule and from P. cruzi by having not digitated terminal parts of both spicules. It differs also from P. (S.) intermedius by having not larger spicule divided in two undigitated branches and six to nine sclerotized bands in the buccal capsule; P. rarus has three to four sclerotized bands and tridigitated larger branch of longer speicule, differing from S. feitasi sp. n.

Travassosnema gen. n. with the description of T. travassosi sp. n. (Dracunculoidea, Guyanemidae) parasite of Acestrorhynchus lacustris Reinhardt, 1874 (Characidae) from Três Marias Reservoir, MG, Brazil

A new genus, Travassosnema (Guyanemidae, Dracunculoidea) is proposed to include filariid worms having esophagus divided into muscular and glandular parts, with esophageal appendix near junction with intestine; anus functional; vulva anterior, well developed and functional in mature females. Travassonema travassosi sp. n., a parasite of Acestrorhynchus lacustris Reinhardt, 1874 from Três Marias Reservoir (São Francisco River) in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, is described. The generic and the specific names are a tribure to Brazilian parasitologist Lauro Travassos at his birth centenary.

Effects of azadirachtin in Rhodnius prolixus: data and hypotheses

The effects of azadirachtin A, a tetranortriterpenoid from the neem tree Azadirachta indica J., on both development and interaction between Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas' disease, and its vector Rhodnius prolixus were studied. Given through a blood meal, a dose-rsponse relationship of azadirachtin was established using antifeedant effect and ecdysis inhibition as effective parameters. A singlo dose of azadirachtin A was able to block the onset of mitosis in the epidermis and ecdysteroid titers in the hemnolymph, determined by radioimmuneassay, were too low for an induction of ecadysis. The survival of T. cruzi was also studied in R. prolixus treated with the drug. If the trypomastigotes were fed in presence of azadirachtin A the number of parasites drastically decreased. If the drug was applied after infection of the bug with T. cruzi, the parasite was still abolished from the gut. If the insect was pretreated with azadirachtin A before infection the same observation was obtained. A single dose of azadirachtin A was enough for a permanent resistance of the insect host against its reinfection with T. cruzi and for blocking the ecdysis for a long time. The effects of azadirachtin A on the hormonal balance of the host and growth inhibition of the parasite will be discussed on the basis of the present results.