Land Use, Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services in an Era of Global Change

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse interactions between freshwater flows, terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. Freshwater management and policy has mainly focused on the liquid water part (surface and ground water run off) of the hydrological cycle including aquatic ecosystems. Although of great significance, this thesis shows that such a focus will not be sufficient for coping with freshwater related social-ecological vulnerability. The thesis illustrates that the terrestrial component of the hydrological cycle, reflected in vapour flows (or evapotranspiration), serves multiple functions in the human life-support system. A broader understanding of the interactions between terrestrial systems and freshwater flows is particularly important in light of present widespread land cover change in terrestrial ecosystems. The water vapour flows from continental ecosystems were quantified at a global scale in Paper I of the thesis. It was estimated that in order to sustain the majority of global terrestrial ecosystem services on which humanity depends, an annual water vapour flow of 63 000 km3/yr is needed, including 6800 km3/yr for crop production. In comparison, the annual human withdrawal of liquid water amounts to roughly 4000 km3/yr. A potential conflict between freshwater for future food production and for terrestrial ecosystem services was identified. Human redistribution of water vapour flows as a consequence of long-term land cover change was addressed at both continental (Australia) (Paper II) and global scales (Paper III). It was estimated that the annual vapour flow had decreased by 10% in Australia during the last 200 years. This is due to a decrease in woody vegetation for agricultural production. The reduction in vapour flows has caused severe problems with salinity of soils and rivers. The human-induced alteration of vapour flows was estimated at more than 15 times the volume of human-induced change in liquid water (Paper II).

Genetic characterisation and global comparison of ancient Mediterranean Great White Sharks population (Carcharodon carcharias, L.1758)

This study poses as its objective the genetic characterization of the ancient population of the Great White shark, Carcharodon carcharias, L.1758, present in the Mediterranean Sea. Using historical evidence, for the most part buccal arches but also whole, stuffed examples from various national museums, research institutes and private collections, a dataset of 18 examples coming from the Mediterranean Sea has been created, in order to increase the informations regarding this species in the Mediterranean. The importance of the Mediterranean provenance derives from the fact that a genetic characterization of this species' population does not exist, and this creates gaps in the knowledge of this species in the Mediterranean. The genetic characterization of the individuals will initially take place by the extraction of the ancient DNA and the analysis of the variations in the sequence markers of the mitochondrial DNA. This approach has allowed the genetic comparison between ancient populations of the Mediterranean and contemporary populations of the same geographical area. In addition, the genetic characterization of the population of white sharks of the Mediterranean, has allowed a genetic comparison with populations from global "hot spots", using published sequences in online databases (NCBI, GenBank). Analyzing the variability of the dataset, both in terms space and time, I assessed the evolutionary relationships of the Mediterranean population of Great Whites with the global populations (Australia/New Zealand, South Africa, Pacific USA, West Atlantic), and the temporal trend of the Mediterranean population variability. This method based on the sequencing of two portions of mitochondrial DNA genes, markers showed us how the population of Great White Sharks in the Mediterranean, is genetically more similar to the populations of the Australia Pacific ocean, American Pacific Ocean, rather than the population of South Africa, and showing also how the population of South Africa is abnormally distant from all other clusters. Interestingly, these results are inconsistent with the results from tagging of this species. In addition, there is evidence of differences between the ancient population of the Mediterranean with the modern one. This differentiation between the ancient and modern population of white shark can be the result of events impacting on this species occurred over the last two centuries.

Development Aid to Water Management in Mali: The Actors, ‘Global’ Paradigms, and ‘Local’ Translations

Development aid involves a complex network of numerous and extremely heterogeneous actors. Nevertheless, all actors seem to speak the same ‘development jargon’ and to display a congruence that extends from the donor over the professional consultant to the village chief. And although the ideas about what counts as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ aid have constantly changed over time —with new paradigms and policies sprouting every few years— the apparent congruence between actors more or less remains unchanged. How can this be explained? Is it a strategy of all actors to get into the pocket of the donor, or are the social dynamics in development aid more complex? When a new development paradigm appears, where does it come from and how does it gain support? Is this support really homogeneous? To answer the questions, a multi-sited ethnography was conducted in the sector of water-related development aid, with a focus on 3 paradigms that are currently hegemonic in this sector: Integrated Water Resources Management, Capacity Building, and Adaptation to Climate Change. The sites of inquiry were: the headquarters of a multilateral organization, the headquarters of a development NGO, and the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. The research shows that paradigm shifts do not happen overnight but that new paradigms have long lines of descent. Moreover, they require a lot of work from actors in order to become hegemonic; the actors need to create a tight network of support. Each actor, however, interprets the paradigms in a slightly different way, depending on the position in the network. They implant their own interests in their interpretation of the paradigm (the actors ‘translate’ their interests), regardless of whether they constitute the donor, a mediator, or the aid recipient. These translations are necessary to cement and reproduce the network.

Survival of the fittest: Herausforderungen an den Fremdenverkehr im Zeichen des global change

Der Globale Wandel ist im Begriff, den Tourismus zu verändern. Die Wechselwirkung von Tourismus und Klimawandel sind beidseitiger Art. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt Möglichkeiten der Adaption und einen wandelbaren Fremdenverkehr. Eine Übersicht der gängigen Tourismusmodelle stellt den Stand der Forschung dar. Der Fremdenverkehr ist durch drei Faktoren massiv geprägt: Die Nachfrage und Motivation, die Reisemittler und Veranstalter sowie das Destinationsangebot. Bei der Motivation wirken Motiv und Anreiz Motivationspsychologisch betrachtet auf die Reiseentscheidung deren Grundlage verarbeitete Informationen sind. Reisemittler und Veranstalter haben einen großen Einfluss auf Entscheidungsprozesse. Neue IuK Technologien haben deren Arbeit grundlegend verändert. Das Tourismusangebot wird stark durch die naturräumlichen Gegebenheiten sowie das politische System bestimmt. Überlebenswichtig für die Destination ist die evolutionstheoretisch etrachtete Fitnessmaximierung also Adaption und Wandel, um sich an geänderte Rahmenbedingungen anpassen zu können. Gerade im Bereich des Klimawandels müssen Maßnahmen ergriffen werden. Aber auch die Marktsättigung gerade in Verbindung mit der aktuellen Finanzkrise wirkt besonders schwer auf die Destination. Eine hohes Innovationsvermögen, Trendscanning und der Zusammenschluss in flexiblen Netzwerkclustern können einen Kundenmehrwert erzeugen. Die Fitnessmaximierung ist somit Überlebensziel der Destination und führt zur Kundenzufriedenheit die im Sättigungsmarkt alleinig Wachstum generieren kann.

A new global wheat marketmodel (GLOWMM) for the analysis of wheat export prices

Food commodity prices fluctuations have important impacts on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, while there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed in order to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors and also the link between food and energy prices. In this paper, we present results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides short and long-run impulse responses of wheat international prices to various real shocks.

Potential Analysis for Hypoelliptic Second Order PDEs with Nonnegative Characteristic Form

In this Thesis we consider a class of second order partial differential operators with non-negative characteristic form and with smooth coefficients. Main assumptions on the relevant operators are hypoellipticity and existence of a well-behaved global fundamental solution. We first make a deep analysis of the L-Green function for arbitrary open sets and of its applications to the Representation Theorems of Riesz-type for L-subharmonic and L-superharmonic functions. Then, we prove an Inverse Mean value Theorem characterizing the superlevel sets of the fundamental solution by means of L-harmonic functions. Furthermore, we establish a Lebesgue-type result showing the role of the mean-integal operator in solving the homogeneus Dirichlet problem related to L in the Perron-Wiener sense. Finally, we compare Perron-Wiener and weak variational solutions of the homogeneous Dirichlet problem, under specific hypothesis on the boundary datum.

Process-based modelling of lichens and bryophytes and their role in global biogeochemical cycles

This thesis presents a process-based modelling approach to quantify carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes at the global scale. Based on the modelled carbon uptake, potential global rates of nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering by the organisms are estimated. In this way, the significance of lichens and bryophytes for global biogeochemical cycles can be assessed. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt / yr of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Based on the simulated estimates of net carbon uptake, further impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles are quantified at the global scale. Thereby the focus is on three processes, namely nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering. The presented estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus is quantified which is needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, the potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground is used to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tg / yr and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tg / yr. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km³ / yr of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for global biogeochemical cycles.

Using the Natural Period of a Structure as an Indicator of the Significance of Second-Order Effects

This study investigates the feasibility of predicting the momentamplification in beam-column elements of steel moment-resisting frames using the structure's natural period. Unlike previous methods, which perform moment-amplification on a story-by-story basis, this study develops and tests two models that aim to predict a global amplification factor indicative of the largest relevant instance of local moment amplification in the structure. To thisend, a variety of two-dimensional frames is investigated using first and secondorder finite element analysis. The observed moment amplification is then compared with the predicted amplification based on the structure's natural period, which is calculated by first-order finite element analysis. As a benchmark, design moment amplification factors are calculated for each story using the story stiffness approach, and serve to demonstrate the relativeconservatism and accuracy of the proposed models with respect to current practice in design. The study finds that the observed moment amplification factors may vastly exceed expectations when internal member stresses are initially very small. Where the internal stresses are small relative to the member capacities, thesecases are inconsequential for design. To qualify the significance of the observed amplification factors, two parameters are used: the second-order moment normalized to the plastic moment capacity, and the combined flexural and axial stress interaction equations developed by AISC

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Creating a public tool to assess and promote transparency in global land deals: the experience of the Land Matrix

The Beta version of the Land Matrix (Land Matrix 2012) was launched in April 2012 as a tool to promote public participation in building a constantly evolving database on large-scale land deals, and making the data visible and understandable. The aim of the Land Matrix partnership is to promote transparency and open data in decisionmaking over land and investment, as a step towards greater accountability. Since its launch, the Land Matrix has attracted a high degree of attention, and stirred some controversy. It provides valuable lessons on the challenges and benefits of promoting open data on practices that are often shrouded in secrecy. This paper critically examines the ongoing efforts by the Land Matrix partnership to build a public tool to promote greater transparency in decision-making over land and investment at a global level. It intends to provoke discussion of the extent to which such a tool can ultimately promote greater transparency and be a step towards greater accountability and improved decision-making. It will present the Land Matrix and its value addition, before detailing the challenges it encountered related to the measurement of the largescale land acquisition phenomenon. It will then specify how it intends to address these issues in order to establish a dynamic and participatory tool for open development.

Repeatability analysis of global and local metrics of brain structural networks

Computational network analysis provides new methods to analyze the human connectome. Brain structural networks can be characterized by global and local metrics that recently gave promising insights for diagnosis and further understanding of neurological, psychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. In order to ensure the validity of results in clinical settings the precision and repeatability of the networks and the associated metrics must be evaluated. In the present study, nineteen healthy subjects underwent two consecutive measurements enabling us to test reproducibility of the brain network and its global and local metrics. As it is known that the network topology depends on the network density, the effects of setting a common density threshold for all networks were also assessed. Results showed good to excellent repeatability for global metrics, while for local metrics it was more variable and some metrics were found to have locally poor repeatability. Moreover, between subjects differences were slightly inflated when the density was not fixed. At the global level, these findings confirm previous results on the validity of global network metrics as clinical biomarkers. However, the new results in our work indicate that the remaining variability at the local level as well as the effect of methodological characteristics on the network topology should be considered in the analysis of brain structural networks and especially in networks comparisons.

Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data-based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air–sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on forward ocean models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 ± 31 PgC (±20% uncertainty). This estimate includes a broad range of values, suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

Impact of Earth radiation pressure on LAGEOS orbits and on the global scale

The indirect solar radiation pressure caused by reflected or re-emitted radiation by the Earth’s surface is an important non-gravitational force perturbing the orbits of geodetic satellites (Rubincam and Weiss, 1986; Martin and Rubincam, 1996). In the case of LAGEOS this acceleration is of the order of 15% of the direct solar radiation pressure. Therefore, Earth radiation pressure has a non-negligible impact not only on LAGEOS orbits, but also on the SLR-derived terrestrial reference frame. We investigate the impact of the Earth radiation pressure on LAGEOS orbits and on the SLR-derived parameters. Earth radiation pressure has a remarkable impact on the semi-major axes of the LAGEOS satellites, causing a systematic reduction of 1.5 mm. The infrared Earth radiation causes a reduction of about 1.0 mm and the Earth’s reflectivity of 0.5 mm of the LAGEOS’ semi-major axes. The global scale defined by the SLR network is changed by 0.07 ppb, when applying Earth radiation pressure. The resulting station heights differ by 0.5-0.6 mm in the solution with and without Earth radiation pressure. However, when range biases are estimated, the height differences are absorbed by the range biases, and thus, the station heights are not shifted.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Mapping tree density at a global scale

The global extent and distribution of forest trees is central to our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. We provide the first spatially continuous map of forest tree density at a global scale. This map reveals that the global number of trees is approximately 3.04 trillion, an order of magnitude higher than the previous estimate. Of these trees, approximately 1.39 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.61 trillion in temperate regions. Biome-level trends in tree density demonstrate the importance of climate and topography in controlling local tree densities at finer scales, as well as the overwhelming effect of humans across most of the world. Based on our projected tree densities, we estimate that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization.