Multiple Testing With an Empirical Alternative Hypothesis

An optimal multiple testing procedure is identified for linear hypotheses under the general linear model, maximizing the expected number of false null hypotheses rejected at any significance level. The optimal procedure depends on the unknown data-generating distribution, but can be consistently estimated. Drawing information together across many hypotheses, the estimated optimal procedure provides an empirical alternative hypothesis by adapting to underlying patterns of departure from the null. Proposed multiple testing procedures based on the empirical alternative are evaluated through simulations and an application to gene expression microarray data. Compared to a standard multiple testing procedure, it is not unusual for use of an empirical alternative hypothesis to increase by 50% or more the number of true positives identified at a given significance level.

MODIFIED TEST STATISTICS BY INTER-VOXEL VARIANCE SHRINKAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO fMRI

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive technique which is commonly used to quantify changes in blood oxygenation and flow coupled to neuronal activation. One of the primary goals of fMRI studies is to identify localized brain regions where neuronal activation levels vary between groups. Single voxel t-tests have been commonly used to determine whether activation related to the protocol differs across groups. Due to the generally limited number of subjects within each study, accurate estimation of variance at each voxel is difficult. Thus, combining information across voxels in the statistical analysis of fMRI data is desirable in order to improve efficiency. Here we construct a hierarchical model and apply an Empirical Bayes framework on the analysis of group fMRI data, employing techniques used in high throughput genomic studies. The key idea is to shrink residual variances by combining information across voxels, and subsequently to construct an improved test statistic in lieu of the classical t-statistic. This hierarchical model results in a shrinkage of voxel-wise residual sample variances towards a common value. The shrunken estimator for voxelspecific variance components on the group analyses outperforms the classical residual error estimator in terms of mean squared error. Moreover, the shrunken test-statistic decreases false positive rate when testing differences in brain contrast maps across a wide range of simulation studies. This methodology was also applied to experimental data regarding a cognitive activation task.

Ultrasound diagnosis of spontaneous carotid dissection with isolated Horner syndrome

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Isolated Horner syndrome without associated cranial nerve palsies or ischemic symptoms is an important presentation of spontaneous internal carotid artery dissection (sICAD). Ultrasound is often used as a screening method in these patients because cervical MRI is not always available on an emergency basis. Current knowledge on ultrasound findings in patients with sICAD presenting with isolated Horner syndrome is limited. METHODS: Patients were recruited from prospective cervical artery dissection databases of 3 tertiary care centers. Diagnosis of sICAD was confirmed by cervical MRI and MR angiography or digital subtraction angiography in all patients. Data on Doppler sonography and color duplex sonography examinations performed within 30 days of symptom onset were analyzed. RESULTS: We identified 88 patients with Horner syndrome as the only sign of sICAD. Initial ultrasound examination was performed in 72 patients after a mean time interval from symptom onset to examination of 11 (SD 8) days. The overall frequency of false-negative ultrasound findings was 31% (22 of 72 patients). It showed stenosis >or=80% or occlusion in 34 (47%) patients, and stenosis

Comparison of tendency-oriented perimetry and dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as a screening tool in a clinical setting: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare the results of tendency-oriented perimetry (TOP) and a dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as screening methods in clinical practice. DESIGN: A prospective single centre observational case series was performed. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: In a newly opened general ophthalmologic practice 89 consecutive patients (171 eyes) with a clinical indication for octopus static perimetry testing (ocular hypertension or suspicious optic nerve cupping) were examined prospectively with TOP and a dynamic strategy. The visual fields were graded by 3 masked observers as normal, borderline or abnormal without any further clinical information. RESULTS: 83% eyes showed the same result for both strategies. In 14% there was a small difference (with one visual field being abnormal or normal, the other being borderline). In only 2.9% of the eyes (5 cases) was there a contradictory result. In 4 out of 5 cases the dynamic visual field was abnormal and TOP was normal. 4 of these cases came back for a second examination. In all 4 the follow-up examination showed a normal second dynamic visual field. CONCLUSIONS: Octopus static perimetry using a TOP strategy is a fast, patient-friendly and very reliable screening tool for the general ophthalmological practice. We found no false-negative results in our series.

Laryngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinomas after (chemo)radiotherapy: a diagnostic dilemma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: During recent years, (chemo)radiotherapy has evolved into a primary treatment modality for both early and advanced laryngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinomas. Head and neck surgeons will be concerned more frequently with patients presenting symptoms and signs suggesting recurrent tumor or complications of (chemo)radiotherapy. RECENT FINDINGS: Analysis of histologic characteristics and tumor spread of recurrent carcinomas on whole-organ slices of salvage laryngectomy specimens showed that recurrent laryngeal carcinomas are often present with multiple tumor foci dispersed in different regions; furthermore, they may develop beneath an intact mucosa. Only a few articles analyze the reliability of laryngoscopy and biopsy in detecting recurrences after (chemo)radiotherapy: the number of false negative biopsies is relatively high. The differentiation between radionecrosis and tumor recurrence is difficult by computed tomography scan and magnetic resonance imaging in many cases. Positron emission tomography-computed tomography and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging are promising diagnostic modalities to detect or exclude persistent or recurrent disease after (chemo)radiotherapy. SUMMARY: Endoscopy with biopsy, computed tomography scan and conventional magnetic resonance imaging present several deficiencies in diagnosing recurrent disease after (chemo)radiotherapy. New imaging modalities such as positron emission tomography-computed tomography and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging show promising results, increasing the diagnostic efficacy.

The accuracy of FAST in relation to grade of solid organ injuries: a retrospective analysis of 226 trauma patients with liver or splenic lesion

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the role of a negative FAST in the diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm of multiply injured patients with liver or splenic lesions. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 226 multiply injured patients with liver or splenic lesions treated at Bern University Hospital, Switzerland. RESULTS: FAST failed to detect free fluid or organ lesions in 45 of 226 patients with spleen or liver injuries (sensitivity 80.1%). Overall specificity was 99.5%. The positive and negative predictive values were 99.4% and 83.3%. The overall likelihood ratios for a positive and negative FAST were 160.2 and 0.2. Grade III-V organ lesions were detected more frequently than grade I and II lesions. Without the additional diagnostic accuracy of a CT scan, the mean ISS of the FAST-false-negative patients would be significantly underestimated and 7 previously unsuspected intra-abdominal injuries would have been missed. CONCLUSION: FAST is an expedient tool for the primary assessment of polytraumatized patients to rule out high grade intra-abdominal injuries. However, the low overall diagnostic sensitivity of FAST may lead to underestimated injury patterns and delayed complications may occur. Hence, in hemodynamically stable patients with abdominal trauma, an early CT scan should be considered and one must be aware of the potential shortcomings of a "negative FAST".

Forget the blood, not the stone! Microhaematuria in acute urolithiasis and the role of early CT scanning

BACKGROUND: Although urinalysis is simple and inexpensive to perform, the finding of microhaematuria on urinalysis may be unreliable for diagnosing urolithiasis. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate microhaematuria as a diagnostic marker for urolithiasis compared with low-dose unenhanced multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as the "gold standard". SETTING: A level 1 emergency department in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. METHODS: A study was undertaken to assess whether the finding of microhaematuria was diagnostic for urolithiasis using a low-dose unenhanced MDCT-based diagnosis as the reference standard by reviewing the records of all patients who presented to the emergency department with colicky flank pain and underwent a CT scan between January 2003 and December 2005. RESULTS: Urolithiasis was present (as defined by low-dose unenhanced MDCT) in 507/638 patients (79%); 341/638 (53%) were true positive for urolithiasis, 76 (12%) were true negative, 55 (9%) were false positive and 166 (26%) were false negative. Microhaematuria as a test for urolithiasis in patients presenting to the emergency department therefore has a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 67%, 58%, 86% and 31%, respectively. 58% of the urinalysis results were negative for haematuria in the subset of patients with significant alternative diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of microhaematuria on urinalysis for urolithiasis using unenhanced MDCT as the reference standard were low. This suggests that, when urolithiasis is clinically suspected, unenhanced MDCT is indicated without urinalysis being a prerequisite.

Pelvic radiography in ATLS algorithms: A diminishing role?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Pelvic x-ray is a routine part of the primary survey of polytraumatized patients according to Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) guidelines. However, pelvic CT is the gold standard imaging technique in the diagnosis of pelvic fractures. This study was conducted to confirm the safety of a modified ATLS algorithm omitting pelvic x-ray in hemodynamically stable polytraumatized patients with clinically stable pelvis in favour of later pelvic examination by CT scan. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all polytraumatized patients in our emergency room between 01.07.2004 and 31.01.2006. Inclusion criteria were blunt abdominal trauma, initial hemodynamic stability and a stable pelvis on clinical examination. We excluded patients requiring immediate intervention because of hemodynamic instability. RESULTS: We reviewed the records of n = 452 polytraumatized patients, of which n = 91 fulfilled inclusion criteria (56% male, mean age = 45 years). The mechanism of trauma included 43% road traffic accidents, 47% falls. In 68/91 (75%) patients, both a pelvic x-ray and a CT examination were performed; the remainder had only pelvic CT. In 6/68 (9%) patients, pelvic fracture was diagnosed by pelvic x-ray. None of these 6 patients was found having a false positive pelvic x-ray, i.e. there was no fracture on pelvic CT scan. In 3/68 (4%) cases a fracture was missed in the pelvic x-ray, but confirmed on CT (false negative on x-ray). None of the diagnosed fractures needed an immediate therapeutic intervention. 5 (56%) were classified type A fractures, and another 4 (44%) B 2.1 in computed tomography (AO classification). One A 2.1 fracture was found in a clinically stable patient who only received CT scan (1/23). CONCLUSION: While pelvic x-ray is an integral part of ATLS assessment, this retrospective study suggests that in hemodynamically stable patients with clinically stable pevis, its sensitivity is only 67% and it may safely be omitted in favor of a pelvic CT examination if such is planned in adjunct assessment and available. The results support the safety and utility of our modified ATLS algorithm. A randomized controlled trial using the algorithm can safely be conducted to confirm the results.

Determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin in human serum by two capillary zone electrophoresis methods and a direct immunoassay: comparison of patient data

Data obtained with two CZE assays for determining carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in human serum under routine conditions, the CAPILLARYS CDT and the high-resolution CEofix (HR-CEofix) CDT methods, are in agreement with patient sera that do not exhibit interferences, high trisialo-transferrin (Tf) levels or genetic variants. HR-CEofix CDT levels are somewhat higher compared to those obtained with the CAPILLARYS method and this bias corresponds to the difference of the upper reference values of the two assays. The lower resolution between disialo-Tf and trisialo-Tf observed in the CAPILLARYS system (mean: 1.24) compared to HR-CEofix (mean: 1.74) is believed to be the key for this difference. For critical sera with high trisialo-Tf levels, genetic variants, or certain interferences in the beta-region, the HR-CEofix approach is demonstrated to perform better than CAPILLARYS. However, the determination of CDT with the HR-CEofix method can also be hampered with interferences. Results with disialo-Tf values larger than 3% in the absence of asialo-Tf should be evaluated with immunosubtraction of Tf and possibly also confirmed with another CZE method or by HPLC. Furthermore, data gathered with the N Latex CDT direct immunonephelometric assay suggest that this assay can be used for screening purposes. To reduce the number of false negative results, CDT data above 2.0% should be confirmed using a separation method.

EXPLORATION OF THE MTSAT2 SATELLITE CAPABILITIES FOR REAL TIME DETECTION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS

In this report, we attempt to define the capabilities of the infrared satellite remote sensor, Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) (i.e. a geosynchronous instrument), in characterizing volcanic eruptive behavior in the highly active region of Indonesia. Sulfur dioxide data from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (i.e. a polar orbiting instrument) are presented here for validation of the processes interpreted using the thermal infrared datasets. Data provided from two case studies are analyzed specifically for eruptive products producing large thermal anomalies (i.e. lava flows, lava domes, etc.), volcanic ash and SO2 clouds; three distinctly characteristic and abundant volcanic emissions. Two primary methods used for detection of heat signatures are used and compared in this report including, single-channel thermal radiance (4-µm) and the normalized thermal index (NTI) algorithm. For automated purposes, fixed thresholds must be determined for these methods. A base minimum detection limit (MDL) for single-channel thermal radiance of 2.30E+05 Wm- 2sr-1m-1 and -0.925 for NTI generate false alarm rates of 35.78% and 34.16%, respectively. A spatial comparison method, developed here specifically for use in Indonesia and used as a second parameter for detection, is implemented to address the high false alarm rate. For the single-channel thermal radiance method, the utilization of the spatial comparison method eliminated 100% of the false alarms while maintaining every true anomaly. The NTI algorithm showed similar results with only 2 false alarms remaining. No definitive difference is observed between the two thermal detection methods for automated use; however, the single-channel thermal radiance method coupled with the SO2 mass abundance data can be used to interpret volcanic processes including the identification of lava dome activity at Sinabung as well as the mechanism for the dome emplacement (i.e. endogenous or exogenous). Only one technique, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) method, is used for the detection of ash. Trends of ash area, water/ice area, and their respective concentrations yield interpretations of increased ice formation, aggregation, and sedimentation processes that only a high-temporal resolution instrument like the MTSAT-2 can analyze. A conceptual model of a secondary zone of aggregation occurring in the migrating Kelut ash cloud, which decreases the distal fine-ash component and hazards to flight paths, is presented in this report. Unfortunately, SO2 data was unable to definitively reinforce the concept of a secondary zone of aggregation due to the lack of a sufficient temporal resolution. However, a detailed study of the Kelut SO2 cloud is used to determine that there was no climatic impacts generated from this eruption due to the atmospheric residence times and e-folding rate of ~14 days for the SO2. This report applies the complementary assets offered by utilizing a high-temporal and a high-spatial resolution satellite, and it demonstrates that these two instruments can provide unparalleled observations of dynamic volcanic processes.

Variability of anti-PF4/heparin antibody results obtained by the rapid testing system ID-H/PF4-PaGIA

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that a low clinical pretest probability may be adequate for excluding heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. However, for patients with intermediate or high pretest probability, laboratory testing is essential for confirming or refuting the diagnosis. Rapid assessment of anti-PF4/heparin-antibodies may assist clinical decision-making. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of rapid ID-H/PF4-PaGIA. In particular, we verified reproducibility of results between plasma and serum specimens, between fresh and frozen samples, and between different ID-H/PF4-polymer lots (polystyrene beads coated with heparin/PF4-complexes). PATIENTS/METHODS: The samples studied were 1376 plasma and 914 corresponding serum samples from patients investigated for suspected heparin-induced thrombocytopenia between January 2000 and October 2008. Anti-PF4/heparin-antibodies were assessed by ID-H/PF4-PaGIA, commercially available ELISAs and heparin-induced platelet aggregation test. RESULTS: Among 914 paired plasma/serum samples we noted discordant results (negative vs. low-titre positive) in nine instances (1%; 95%CI, 0.4-1.6%). Overall, agreement between titres assessed in plasma vs. serum was highly significant (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.975; P < 0.0001). Forty-seven samples tested both fresh and after freezing/thawing showed a good agreement, with one discordant positive/negative result (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.970; P < 0.0001). Among 1376 plasma samples we noted a strikingly variable incidence of false negative results (none - 82%; 95%CI, 66-98%), depending on the employed ID-H/PF4-polymer lot. Faulty lots can be recognized by titrating commercial positive controls and stored samples of HIT-patients. CONCLUSION: Laboratories performing the assay should implement stringent internal quality controls in order to recognize potentially faulty ID-H/PF4-polymer lots, thus avoiding false negative results.

Expanding the cone location and magnitude index to include corneal thickness and posterior surface information for the detection of keratoconus

PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.

Testing an alternative search algorithm for compound identification with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data. MSforID'

A tandem mass spectral database system consists of a library of reference spectra and a search program. State-of-the-art search programs show a high tolerance for variability in compound-specific fragmentation patterns produced by collision-induced decomposition and enable sensitive and specific 'identity search'. In this communication, performance characteristics of two search algorithms combined with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data, MSforID' (Wiley Registry MSMS, John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA) were evaluated. The search algorithms tested were the MSMS search algorithm implemented in the NIST MS Search program 2.0g (NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, USA) and the MSforID algorithm (John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA). Sample spectra were acquired on different instruments and, thus, covered a broad range of possible experimental conditions or were generated in silico. For each algorithm, more than 30,000 matches were performed. Statistical evaluation of the library search results revealed that principally both search algorithms can be combined with the Wiley Registry MSMS to create a reliable identification tool. It appears, however, that a higher degree of spectral similarity is necessary to obtain a correct match with the NIST MS Search program. This characteristic of the NIST MS Search program has a positive effect on specificity as it helps to avoid false positive matches (type I errors), but reduces sensitivity. Thus, particularly with sample spectra acquired on instruments differing in their Setup from tandem-in-space type fragmentation, a comparably higher number of false negative matches (type II errors) were observed by searching the Wiley Registry MSMS.

Diagnostic gap in Bovine viral diarrhea virus serology during the periparturient period in cattle

Detection of antibodies against Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in serum and milk by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a crucial part of all ongoing national schemes to eradicate this important cattle pathogen. Serum and milk are regarded as equally suited for antibody measurement. However, when retesting a seropositive cow 1 day after calving, the serum was negative in 6 out of 9 different ELISAs. To further investigate this diagnostic gap around parturition, pre- and postcalving serum and milk samples of 5 cows were analyzed by BVDV antibody ELISA and serum neutralization test (SNT). By ELISA, 3 out of the 5 animals showed a diagnostic gap in the serum for up to 12 days around calving but all animals remained positive in SNT. In milk, the ELISA was strongly positive after birth but antibody levels decreased considerably within the next few days. Because of the immunoglobulin G (IgG)1-specific transport of serum antibodies into the mammary gland for colostrum production, the IgG subclass specificity of the total and the BVDV-specific antibodies were determined. Although all 5 animals showed a clear decrease in the total and BVDV-specific IgG1 antibody levels at parturition, the precalving IgG1-to-IgG2 ratios of the BVDV-specific antibodies were considerably lower in animals that showed the diagnostic gap. Results showed that BVDV seropositive cows may become "false" negative in several ELISAs in the periparturient period and suggest that the occurrence of this diagnostic gap is influenced by the BVDV-specific IgG subclass response of the individual animal.

Humoral immunity in tuberculin skin test anergy and its role in high-risk persons exposed to active tuberculosis.

The most common test to identify latent tuberculosis is the tuberculin skin test that detects T cell responses of delayed type hypersensitivity type IV. Since it produces false negative reactions in active tuberculosis or in high-risk persons exposed to tuberculosis patients as shown in this report, we studied antibody profiles to explain the anergy of such responses in high-risk individuals without active infection. Our results showed that humoral immunity against tuberculin, regardless of the result of the tuberculin skin test is important for protection from active tuberculosis and that the presence of high antibody titers is a more reliable indicator of infection latency suggesting that latency can be based on the levels of antibodies together with in vitro proliferation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells in the presence of the purified protein derivative. Importantly, anti-tuberculin IgG antibody levels mediate the anergy described herein, which could also prevent reactivation of disease in high-risk individuals with high antibody titers. Such anti-tuberculin IgG antibodies were also found associated with blocking and/or stimulation of in vitro cultures of PBMC with tuberculin. In this regard, future studies need to establish if immune responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis can generate a broad spectrum of reactions either toward Th1 responses favoring stimulation by cytokines or by antibodies and those toward diminished responses by Th2 cytokines or blocking by antibodies; possibly involving mechanisms of antibody dependent protection from Mtb by different subclasses of IgG.