A persistência da indexação no Brasil pós-Real

The paper analyzes the shortcomings of the Real Plan combining political science and economics, considering evidences on difficulties in implementing a complete plan of deindexation, namely: the distributional conflict, the corporatist relations between the State and society and the bureaucratic isolation of a highly specialized technocracy. The announcement of the plan triggered defensive reactions, fueling distributive tensions during the URV period, forcing the economic team to take measures that contradicted the overall guidelines followed. The persistence of indexation mechanisms indicate the resulting obstacles in seeking a reform of the State through a stabilization plan, even though the latter has the former as a precondition.

Exploring the impact of celebrity endorsement and product class involvement on advertising effectiveness: an eye tracking approach

Celebrity endorsement has increased in popularity over the past decades and companies are willing to spend increasingly excessive amounts of money into it. Even though multiple studies support celebrity endorsement, further research on its impact on advertising effectiveness is called for. Fur-ther, the role of consumers’ product class involvement in advertising needs to be further studied. The purpose of this study is to explore if consumers’ product class involvement and exposure to celebrity endorsers affect consumers brand recall. Supported by earlier studies, brand recall was used as a measure for advertising effectiveness in this study. In general, a psychological approach was chosen for building the theoretical framework. Concept of classical conditioning was presented in order to understand why people act how they do. Balanced theory and meaning transfer model were presented in order to study how celebrities can be used effectively in advertising context. Further, the importance of product class involvement in advertising effectiveness was evaluated. Hypotheses were formulated based on a literature review of the existing research. Because of the versatility of the research design, a mixed methods approach for this study was adopted. Empirical part of the study was conducted in three stages. First, a pre-test was conducted in order to choose suitable product endorsers for the advertisement stimuli used in the experiment. Second, an eye-tracking experiment with 30 test subjects was conducted in order to study how people view advertisements and whether the familiarity of the product endorser and consumers’ product class involvement affects brand recall. For the experiment, a fictional brand was created in order to avoid bias on brand recall. Third, qualitative interviews for 15 test subjects were conducted in the post-experiment stage in order to gain deeper understating of the phenomenon and to make sense of the findings from the experiment. Findings from this study support celebrity endorsement by suggesting that a famous spokesperson does not steal attention from brand information more than a non-celebrity product endorser. As a result, the use of a celebrity endorser did not decrease brand recall. Results support earlier research as consumer’ higher product class involvement resulted in a better brand recall. Findings from the interviews suggest that consumers have positive perceptions of celebrity endorsement in general. However, the celebrity–brand congruence is a crucial factor when creating attitudes towards the advertisement. Future research ideas were presented based on the limitations and results of this study

"Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference" : further exploration of attitude alignment in the context of close relationship dyads /

One hundred and five primarily Caucasian undergraduate couples were tested to study the phenomenon of attitude alignment, or the way in which individuals change their opinions to achieve greater attitudinal congruence with their romantic partners, and the hypotheses that relationship closeness, affect, attachment, social desirability, and centrality are each related to attitude alignment for individuals in close couples. The couples filled out an attitude questionnaire consisting of 50 issues in which they were asked to give their attitude on a scale from 1 to 9 as well as to rate the centrality, or importance, of that issue on a scale from 1 to 9. Before discussing four of these issues with each other - 2 were more central to the man and less central, or peripheral, to the woman, whereas the other 2 were central to the woman and peripheral to the man - the individuals completed established measures of relationship closeness, affect, attachment, and social desirability. The couples then filled out the identical attitudes questionnaire again, and their answers on the four discussion issues were compared to their prediscussion answers to determine whether attitude alignment had occurred. There were two experimental groups: a social desirability group, where the couples were told it was natural and normal to disagree with their partners, and a control group. Results indicated that attitude alignment did significantly occur across all couples, but most other variables - including centrality, relationship closeness, and affect - did not predict attitude alignment behaviour. As well, the social desirability experimental groups did not significantly differ on attitude alignment behaviours, but higher scores on the social desirability scale, specifically self-deception, significantly predicted higher attitude alignment scores across all couples. Large differences between individuals' frequency.

Coevolution of Heliconius spp. and Passiflora spp. : a phylogenetic comparison

Although a substantial amount of research has been done on all aspects ofHeliconius biology and their ecological interactions with Passiflora, there has not hitherto been a phylogenetic examination of this association for coevolution. To test the HeliconiuslPassilfora association for coevolutionary congruence, phylogenies for each group were established and compared. The phylogeny for 14 species ofHeliconiinae from Costa Rica was based on combined sequence data from rRNA ITS 2 and partial EF-1a gene regions. For the Passifloraceae, 17 host plant species were utilized to establish a phylogeny based on tRNALeucine and ITS 1/5.8S1 ITS 2 sequence data. The phylogenies for both groups were largely in agreement with current classification (for Passifloraceae) and previously established phylogenies. Associations with the large subgenera Passiflora and Decaloba correspond with the two major Advanced Radiation groups in Heliconius. Although strict congruence above subgenus level was not observed, broad scale congruence was evident. One main host shift as well as other possible explanations for lack of strict congruence are suggested.

The Importance and achievement of work values and locus of control as factors in work motivation

The present research study examined the relationships in a work motivation context among perceived importance and achievement of work values, locus of control and internal work motivation. The congruence of a work value was considered to be the discrepancy between the importance of a work value and the perceived achievement of that value. The theoretical framework utilized was based on a self-perpetuating cycle of motivation which included the perceived importance and achievement of work values and internal work motivation as separate and distinct, yet interrelated factors. It was hypothesized that individuals who experienced high congruence of work values would experience higher levels of internal work motivation than individuals who had low congruence of work values. It was also hypothesized that individuals who had an internal locus of control would experience more internal work motivation individuals well, the and have higher congruence of work values than who had an external locus of control. As possibility of locus of control as a moderator between importance of work values and internal work motivation was explored. Survey data were collected from 184 managerial level employees of the XYZ company during an ongoing training session. The following instruments were employed to measure the variables: Elizur's (1984) Importance of Work Values, Hunt and Saul's (1985) Achievement of Work Values, Hatfield, Robinson and Huseman's (1975) Job Perception Scale, a modified version of Rotter's (1966) I-E Locus of Control Scale and the Internal Work Motivation Scale (Hackman & Oldham, 1980) which is a part of the Job Diagnostic Survey. The findings indicated that locus of control was not a significant factor in determining congruence between work values or internal work motivation for this sample. Furthermore, locus of control was also found not to be a moderator between the importance of work values and internal work motivation. All individuals in this study had relatively high levels of internal work motivation. However, individuals who had higher congruence of work values did have significantly higher internal work motivation than those who had low congruence of work values for a majority of the 21 values. This was particularly true for the intrinsic values which included responsibility, meaningfulness and use of abilities. In addition, the data were analysed into a hierarchy of needs to indicate possible organizational development or human resource development needs for the XYZ corporation.

Aspects of spatial and habitat ecology of multiple Anopheles species (Diptera: Culicidae): malaria vectors in the highlands and foothills of Ecuador

The resurgence of malaria in highland regions of Africa, Oceania and recently in South America underlines the importance of the study of the ecology of highland mosquito vectors of malaria. Since the incidence of malaria is limited by the distribution of its vectors, the purpose of this PhD thesis was to examine aspects of the ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Andes of Ecuador, South America. A historical literature and archival data review (Chapter 2) indicated that Anopheles pseudopunctipennis transmitted malaria in highland valleys of Ecuador prior to 1950, although it was eliminated through habitat removal and the use of chemical insecticides. Other anopheline species were previously limited to low-altitude regions, except in a few unconfirmed cases. A thorough larval collection effort (n=438 attempted collection sites) in all road-accessible parts of Ecuador except for the lowland Amazon basin was undertaken between 2008 - 2010 (Chapter 3). Larvae were identified morphologically and using molecular techniques (mitochondrial COl gene), and distribution maps indicated that all five species collected (Anopheles albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis, Anopheles punctimacula, Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. and Anopheles eiseni) were more widespread throughout highland regions than previously recorded during the 1940s, with higher maximum altitudes for all except An. pseudopunctipennis (1541 m, 1930 m, 1906 m, 1233 m and 1873 m, respectively). During larval collections, to characterize species-specific larval habitat, a variety of abiotic and biotic habitat parameters were measured and compared between species-present and species-absent sites using chi-square tests and stepwise binary logistic regression analyses (Chapter 4). An. albimanus was significantly associated with permanent pools with sand substrates and An. pseudopunctipennis with gravel and boulder substrates. Both species were significantly associated with floating cyanobacterial mats and warmer temperatures, which may limit their presence in cooler highland regions. Anopheles punctimacula was collected more often than expected from algae-free, shaded pools with higher-than-average calculated dissolved oxygen. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l., the species occurring on the Amazonian side of the Andes, was associated with permanent, anthropogenic habitats such as roadside ditches and ponds. To address the hypothesis that human land use change is responsible for the emergence of multiple highland Anopheles species by creating larval habitat, common land uses in the western Andes were surveyed for standing water and potential larval habitat suitability (Chapter 5). Rivers and road edges provided large amounts of potentially suitable anopheline habitat in the western Andes, while cattle pasture also created potentially suitable habitat in irrigation canals and watering ponds. Other common land uses surveyed (banana farms, sugarcane plantations, mixed tree plantations, and empty lots) were usually established on steep slopes and had very little standing water present. Using distribution and larval habitat data, a GIS-based larval habitat distribution model for the common western species was constructed in ArcGIS v.l 0 (ESRI 2010) using derived data layers from field measurements and other sources (Chapter 6). The additive model predicted 76.4 - 97.9% of the field-observed collection localities of An. albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis and An. punctimacula, although it could not accurately distinguish between species-absent and speciespresent sites due to its coarse scale. The model predicted distributional expansion and/or shift of one or more anopheline species into the following highland valleys with climate warming: Mira/Chota, Imbabura province, Tumbaco, Pichincha province, Pallatanga and Sibambe, Chimborazo province, and Yungilla, Azuay province. These valleys may serve as targeted sites of future monitoring to prevent highland epidemics of malaria. The human perceptions of malaria and mosquitoes in relation to land management practices were assessed through an interview-based survey (n=262) in both highlands and lowlands, of male and female land owners and managers of five property types (Chapter 7). Although respondents had a strong understanding of where the disease occurs in their own country and of the basic relationship among standing water, mosquitoes and malaria, about half of respondents in potential risk areas denied the current possibility of malaria infection on their own property. As well, about half of respondents with potential anopheline larval habitat did not report its presence, likely due to a highly specific definition of suitable mosquito habitat. Most respondents who are considered at risk of malaria currently use at least one type of mosquito bite prevention, most commonly bed nets. In conclusion, this interdisciplinary thesis examines the occurrence of Anopheles species in the lowland transition area and highlands in Ecuador, from a historic, geographic, ecological and sociological perspective.

VOCATIONAL INTERESTS: CONSTRUCT VALIDITY AND MEASUREMENT

This dissertation addressed several questions relevant to vocational interests and personality characteristics, examining (a) the roles of personality, vocational interests, and sexual fantasies in defining a general factor of Masculinity/Femininity (M/F) (Study 1), (b) the validity of a new measure of vocational interests (Study 2), and (c) the individual difference characteristics that discriminate between students in various academic majors, and that predict academic outcomes (Study 3). In Study 1, vocational interests, personality, and sexual fantasies were examined to find whether these variables would yield a general Masculinity/Femininity (M/F) factor, and whether that factor would still emerge when controlling for participant sex. The results of Study 1 revealed that a general factor of M/F did emerge. When sex was removed, the loadings of vocational interests decreased from high to very low, suggesting that the link of vocational interests with other indicators of M/F is mainly due to sex differences in these variables. The purpose of Study 2 was to validate the Oregon Vocational Interest Scales (ORVIS), a new public domain vocational interests questionnaire designed to measure eight vocational interest scales. ORVIS scores obtained in a college and community sample were compared with those of two personality measures and two cognitive ability tests. Results from this study showed that the ORVIS scales were reliable and showed good construct validity. The purpose of Study 3, using the ORVIS along with the HEXACO-PI and tests of cognitive ability, was to examine the individual difference characteristics of students in different academic majors, and to use the congruence between a student's academic major and vocational interests as a predictor of academic outcomes, such as GPA, academic major change, and satisfaction with major. The results of Study 3 revealed that students in different academic majors show theoretically meaningful differences in personality, abilities, and interests. Conscientiousness and math ability were found to be the best predictors of academic outcomes. However, congruence between major and interests did not add significant predictive validity to any of these outcomes beyond personality and ability. Together, these three studies show the role of vocational interests in defming MlF and in predicting various academic outcomes.

Sport Values of Bantam, Midget and Intermediate Female Hockey Players and Their Minor Hockey Associations

The sport values of female hockey players and their minor hockey associations were explored to better inform a values-based approach for adult-managed minor hockey. Data were collected from 294 participatory HL and competitive Rep players (12-22 years of age) using the Youth Sport Values Questionnaire-2 and from 30 hockey association board members using a modified YSVQ-2. Results indicated player importance (VI) ratings for Moral (M = 4.08) and Competence (M = 4.15) values were not significantly different but were significantly higher than Status (M = 2.11) value. Significant weak relationships between age and competition level versus VI ratings were found. There were medium/ high Moral, medium/ low Competence and high/ high Status value congruence between Rep and HL Player-Board Members, respectively. Based upon the findings, girls’ minor hockey associations need to recognize the values female youth players prioritize, and ensure each is considered within a values-based decision-making approach to governance.

Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions.

In the context of multivariate linear regression (MLR) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing exact tests of possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR systems. For the case of uniform linear hypotheses, we present exact distributional invariance results concerning several standard test criteria. These include Wilks' likelihood ratio (LR) criterion as well as trace and maximum root criteria. The normality assumption is not necessary for most of the results to hold. Implications for inference are two-fold. First, invariance to nuisance parameters entails that the technique of Monte Carlo tests can be applied on all these statistics to obtain exact tests of uniform linear hypotheses. Second, the invariance property of the latter statistic is exploited to derive general nuisance-parameter-free bounds on the distribution of the LR statistic for arbitrary hypotheses. Even though it may be difficult to compute these bounds analytically, they can easily be simulated, hence yielding exact bounds Monte Carlo tests. Illustrative simulation experiments show that the bounds are sufficiently tight to provide conclusive results with a high probability. Our findings illustrate the value of the bounds as a tool to be used in conjunction with more traditional simulation-based test methods (e.g., the parametric bootstrap) which may be applied when the bounds are not conclusive.

Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.

Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.

Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

Testing Normality : A GMM Approach

In this paper, we consider testing marginal normal distributional assumptions. More precisely, we propose tests based on moment conditions implied by normality. These moment conditions are known as the Stein (1972) equations. They coincide with the first class of moment conditions derived by Hansen and Scheinkman (1995) when the random variable of interest is a scalar diffusion. Among other examples, Stein equation implies that the mean of Hermite polynomials is zero. The GMM approach we adopted is well suited for two reasons. It allows us to study in detail the parameter uncertainty problem, i.e., when the tests depend on unknown parameters that have to be estimated. In particular, we characterize the moment conditions that are robust against parameter uncertainty and show that Hermite polynomials are special examples. This is the main contribution of the paper. The second reason for using GMM is that our tests are also valid for time series. In this case, we adopt a Heteroskedastic-Autocorrelation-Consistent approach to estimate the weighting matrix when the dependence of the data is unspecified. We also make a theoretical comparison of our tests with Jarque and Bera (1980) and OPG regression tests of Davidson and MacKinnon (1993). Finite sample properties of our tests are derived through a comprehensive Monte Carlo study. Finally, three applications to GARCH and realized volatility models are presented.

Correcting the Errors : A Note on Volatility Forecast Evaluation Based on High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities

This note develops general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit the recent asymptotic distributional results in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002a), are both easy to implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. On properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), the adjustments result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return-volatility predictability.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.