Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Custo efetividade do uso do Peguinterferon alfa 2a combinado com Ribavirina no tratamento de respondedores virológicos lentos coinfectados com VHC/HIV

No mundo, as hepatites decorrentes de infecções virais têm sido uma das grandes preocupações em saúde pública devido a seu caráter crônico, curso assintomático e pela sua capacidade de determinar a perda da função hepática. Com o uso em larga escala de medicamentos antirretrovirais, a doença hepática relacionada à infecção pelo vírus da hepatite C (VHC) contribuiu para uma mudança radical na história natural da infecção pelo vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV). Não se sabe ao certo o peso da coinfecção VHC/HIV no Brasil, mas evidências apontam que independentemente da região geográfica, esses indivíduos apresentam maiores dificuldades em eliminar o VHC após o tratamento farmacológico, quando comparados a monoinfectados. No âmbito do SUS, o tratamento antiviral padrão para portadores do genótipo 1 do VHC e do HIV é a administração de peguinterferon associado à Ribavirina. Quanto ao período de tratamento e aos indivíduos que devem ser incluídos, os dois protocolos terapêuticos mais recentes possuem divergências. A diretriz mais atual preconiza o tratamento de indivíduos respondedores precoces somados a respondedores virológicos lentos, enquanto a diretriz imediatamente anterior exclui na 12 semana indivíduos que não respondem completamente. Com base nessa divergência, esse estudo objetivou avaliar o custo-efetividade do tratamento contra o VHC em indivíduos portadores do genótipo 1, coinfectados com o HIV, virgens de tratamento antiviral, não cirróticos e imunologicamente estabilizados, submetidos às regras de tratamento antiviral estabelecidos pelas duas mais recentes diretrizes terapêuticas direcionadas ao atendimento pelo SUS. Para tal, foi elaborado um modelo matemático de decisão, baseado em cadeias de Markov, que simulou a progressão da doença hepática mediante o tratamento e não tratamento. Foi acompanhada uma coorte hipotética de mil indivíduos homens, maiores de 40 anos. Adotou-se a perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde, horizonte temporal de 30 anos e taxa de desconto de 5% para os custos e consequências clínicas. A extensão do tratamento para respondedores lentos proporcionou incremento de 0,28 anos de vida ajustados por qualidade (QALY), de 7% de sobrevida e aumento de 60% no número de indivíduos que eliminaram o VHC. Além dos esperados benefícios em eficácia, a inclusão de respondedores virológicos lentos mostrou-se uma estratégia custo-efetiva ao alcançar um incremental de custo efetividade de R$ 44.171/QALY, valor abaixo do limiar de aceitabilidade proposto pela Organização Mundial da Saúde OMS - (R$ 63.756,00/QALY). A análise de sensibilidade demonstrou que as possíveis incertezas contidas no modelo são incapazes de alterar o resultado final, evidenciando, assim, a robustez da análise. A inclusão de indivíduos coinfectados VHC/HIV respondedores virológicos lentos no protocolo de tratamento apresenta-se, do ponto de vista fármaco-econômico, como uma estratégia com relação de custoefetividade favorável para o Sistema Único de Saúde. Sua adoção é perfeitamente compatível com a perspectiva do sistema, ao retornar melhores resultados em saúdeassociados a custos abaixo de um teto orçamentário aceitável, e com o da sociedade, ao evitar em maior grau, complicações e internações quando comparado à não inclusão.

Economía de la salud, modalidades de evaluación económica

La salud es un aspecto muy importante en la vida de cualquier persona, de forma que, al ocurrir cualquier contingencia que merma el estado de salud de un individuo o grupo de personas, se debe valorar estrictamente y en detalle las distintas alternativas destinadas a combatir la enfermedad. Esto se debe a que, la calidad de vida de los pacientes variará dependiendo de la alternativa elegida. La calidad de vida relacionada con la salud (CVRS) se entiende como el valor asignado a la duración de la vida, modificado por la oportunidad social, la percepción, el estado funcional y la disminución provocadas por una enfermedad, accidente, tratamiento o política (Sacristán et al, 1995). Para determinar el valor numérico asignado a la CVRS, ante una intervención, debemos beber de la teoría económica aplicada a las evaluaciones sanitarias para nuevas intervenciones. Entre los métodos de evaluación económica sanitaria, el método coste-utilidad emplea como utilidad, los años de vida ajustado por calidad (AVAC), que consiste, por un lado, tener en cuenta la calidad de vida ante una intervención médica, y por otro lado, los años estimados a vivir tras la intervención. Para determinar la calidad de vida, se emplea técnicas como el Juego Estándar, la Equivalencia Temporal y la Escala de Categoría. Estas técnicas nos proporcionan un valor numérico entre 0 y 1, siendo 0 el peor estado y 1 el estado perfecto de salud. Al entrevistar a un paciente a cerca de la utilidad en términos de salud, puede haber riesgo o incertidumbre en la pregunta planteada. En tal caso, se aplica el Juego Estándar con el fin de determinar el valor numérico de la utilidad o calidad de vida del paciente ante un tratamiento dado. Para obtener este valor, al paciente se le plantean dos escenarios: en primer lugar, un estado de salud con probabilidad de morir y de sobrevivir, y en segundo lugar, un estado de certeza. La utilidad se determina modificando la probabilidad de morir hasta llegar a la probabilidad que muestra la indiferencia del individuo entre el estado de riesgo y el estado de certeza. De forma similar, tenemos la equivalencia temporal, cuya aplicación resulta más fácil que el juego estándar ya que valora en un eje de ordenadas y abscisas, el valor de la salud y el tiempo a cumplir en esa situación ante un tratamiento sanitario, de forma que, se llega al valor correspondiente a la calidad de vida variando el tiempo hasta que el individuo se muestre indiferente entre las dos alternativas. En último lugar, si lo que se espera del paciente es una lista de estados de salud preferidos ante un tratamiento, empleamos la Escala de Categoría, que consiste en una línea horizontal de 10 centímetros con puntuaciones desde 0 a 100. La persona entrevistada coloca la lista de estados de salud según el orden de preferencia en la escala que después es normalizado a un intervalo entre 0 y 1. Los años de vida ajustado por calidad se obtienen multiplicando el valor de la calidad de vida por los años de vida estimados que vivirá el paciente. Sin embargo, ninguno de estas metodologías mencionadas consideran el factor edad, siendo necesario la inclusión de esta variable. Además, los pacientes pueden responder de manera subjetiva, situación en la que se requiere la opinión de un experto que determine el nivel de discapacidad del aquejado. De esta forma, se introduce el concepto de años de vida ajustado por discapacidad (AVAD) tal que el parámetro de utilidad de los AVAC será el complementario del parámetro de discapacidad de los AVAD Q^i=1-D^i. A pesar de que este último incorpora parámetros de ponderación de edad que no se contemplan en los AVAC. Además, bajo la suposición Q=1-D, podemos determinar la calidad de vida del individuo antes del tratamiento. Una vez obtenido los AVAC ganados, procedemos a la valoración monetaria de éstos. Para ello, partimos de la suposición de que la intervención sanitaria permite al individuo volver a realizar las labores que venía realizando. De modo que valoramos los salarios probables con una temporalidad igual a los AVAC ganados, teniendo en cuenta la limitación que supone la aplicación de este enfoque. Finalmente, analizamos los beneficios derivados del tratamiento (masa salarial probable) si empleamos la tabla GRF-95 (población femenina) y GRM-95 (población masculina).

A working guide to the assessment, implementation and post project monitoring of fisheries habitat improvement schemes in South Cumbria

Due to changes in land use over the last century, the physical nature of many streams and rivers in the British Isles has probably changed. In some cases this change may be large for example as a result of flood defence schemes and is easily observed, whilst in other cases altered land use, farming, forestry or urbanization may have resulted in more subtle changes to river features. This working guide draws together a way of assessing habitat in any stream or river and determine sites or reaches on the assessed watercourse that may benefit from habitat improvement schemes. It will determine a method of measuring existing habitat in a broad sense, whilst referring to R and D studies currently being undertaken in this area. A method of prioritising any proposed habitat restoration work will be suggested. The limitations of fisheries improvement schemes in terms of cross functional acceptance (flood defence and conservation) will be examined along with suggested proposals for some example watercourses. The need for pre and post enhancement monitoring will be discussed as will the requirement for maintenance programs on schemes. Finally methods for determining the cost benefits of small schemes will be examined, compared to other currently used enhancement strategies. This will allow small scale revenue schemes to be used to back up pre project cost benefit analysis as required in future capital submissions.

Regulação financeira sistêmica no Brasil: desafios e propostas de aprimoramento institucional

A presente dissertação versa sobre o estudo da regulação financeira sistêmica brasileira e está dividida em quatro capítulos. No primeiro capítulo, descreve-se a essência das atividades financeiras e narra-se a trajetória histórica que deu ensejo à criação de Bancos Centrais e o surgimento da regulação bancária no mundo. Em seguida, discorre-se sobre o processo de expansão do sistema financeiro e sua internacionalização face à globalização financeira dos mercados. Após a exposição de razões políticas, comportamentais, econômicas e técnicas consideradas determinantes para a consumação da última crise financeira mundial (caso subprime), demonstra-se que uma regulação financeira sistêmica adequada constitui um processo complexo, dinâmico e contínuo de gestão pública com vistas a evitar ou atenuar os efeitos de crises sistêmicas. Nesse sentido, são expostos os motivos por que o Brasil enfrentou bem tal crise, através da apresentação da evolução dos processos regulatórios domésticos nos últimos anos. No segundo capítulo, utilizado o marco político-filosófico de John Rawls, sustenta-se a ideia de que a estabilidade financeira sustentável ao longo do tempo é uma questão de justiça básica que deve influenciar o desenho político-institucional em sociedades democráticas constitucionais. Nesse sentido, afirma-se a possibilidade de geração de um consenso sobreposto, segundo o ideal de razão pública, quanto à necessidade de estabelecimento de instituições, relativamente descoladas dos ciclos político-eleitorais e dotadas de especialização técnica, responsáveis pelo planejamento e acompanhamento público e transparente da sustentabilidade da execução da política monetária e da regulação financeira sistêmica propriamente dita no longo prazo. Adicionalmente, em razão da globalização financeira dos mercados, discorre-se sobre os limites e possibilidades do ideal de razão pública nos organismos financeiros internacionais (redes globais de governo), instituídos para definir padrões de regulação financeira sistêmica, e são feitos comentários acerca da existência de um Direito Administrativo Global. No terceiro capítulo, defende-se a ideia de razão prática regulatória como a diretriz adequada de atuação sustentável do Estado na economia com foco em resultados, a fim de estimular o progresso nos processos regulatórios, mediante o uso do better regulation como paradigma de análise de custos e benefícios. Após, expõe-se a noção de juridicidade administrativa como a mais compatível com a Constituição, além de defender-se a legitimidade democrática e o poder normativo das agências reguladoras financeiras. Por fim, com fundamento nas características do desenho institucional da estrutura regulatória brasileira, são formuladas propostas de aprimoramento institucional. No último capítulo, são feitos comentários sobre as vantagens, limites e riscos de judicialização dos processos regulatórios financeiros em democracias constitucionais, o que motiva a construção de parâmetros institucionais e materiais de atuação judicial, posteriormente analisados em precedentes importantes julgados no Brasil nos últimos anos.

The NRA's role in wetland conservation

This is the NRA's role in wetland conservation report produced by the National Rivers Authority in 1995. This document is the third of a series of three R&D Notes produced as part of an integrated research programme addressing aspects of the NRA's role in wetland management and conservation. Chapter 1 considers the nature of the wetland resource and its definition. Chapter 2 presents the NRA's current legislative and policy framework relating to its role in wetland conservation. National and international legislation and agreements are considered, and particular attention is afforded to the potential implications of the 'Habitats Directive'. Chapter 4 presents key examples of operational casework involving wetlands. Differences in approach and external perceptions of the NRA's current and likely future role in wetland conservation are discussed within Chapter 5. Other issues highlighted in this report are: policy guidance required on NRA’s role in land drainage; standard of flood defence service for wetlands; cost-benefit analysis; strategies for halting and reversing the decline and degradation of wetland resource; and Catchment Management Planning.

A biogeographic assessment of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary: a review of boundary expansion concepts for NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program

The priority management goal of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program (NMSP) is to protect marine ecosystems and biodiversity. This goal requires an understanding of broad-scale ecological relationships and linkages between marine resources and physical oceanography to support an ecosystem management approach. The Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) is currently reviewing its management plan and investigating boundary expansion. A management plan study area (henceforth, Study Area) was described that extends from the current boundary north to the mainland, and extends north to Point Sal and south to Point Dume. Six additional boundary concepts were developed that vary in area and include the majority of the Study Area. The NMSP and CINMS partnered with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Biogeography Team to conduct a biogeographic assessment to characterize marine resources and oceanographic patterns within and adjacent to the sanctuary. This assessment includes a suite of quantitative spatial and statistical analyses that characterize biological and oceanographic patterns in the marine region from Point Sal to the U.S.-Mexico border. These data were analyzed using an index which evaluates an ecological “cost-benefit” within the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. The sanctuary resides in a dynamic setting where two oceanographic regimes meet. Cold northern waters mix with warm southern waters around the Channel Islands creating an area of transition that strongly influences the regions oceanography. In turn, these processes drive the biological distributions within the region. This assessment analyzes bathymetry, benthic substrate, bathymetric life-zones, sea surface temperature, primary production, currents, submerged aquatic vegetation, and kelp in the context of broad-scale patterns and relative to the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. Boundary cost-benefit results for these parameters were variable due to their dynamic nature; however, when analyzed in composite the Study Area and Boundary Concept 2 were considered the most favorable. Biological data were collected from numerous resource agencies and university scientists for this assessment. Fish and invertebrate trawl data were used to characterize community structure. Habitat suitability models were developed for 15 species of macroinvertebrates and 11 species of fish that have significant ecological, commercial, or recreational importance in the region and general patterns of ichthyoplankton distribution are described. Six surveys of ship and plane at-sea surveys were used to model marine bird diversity from Point Arena to the U.S.-Mexico border. Additional surveys were utilized to estimate density and colony counts for nine bird species. Critical habitat for western snowy plover and the location of California least tern breeding pairs were also analyzed. At-sea surveys were also used to describe the distribution of 14 species of cetaceans and five species of pinnipeds. Boundary concept cost-benefit indices revealed that Boundary Concept 2 and the Study Area were most favorable for the majority of the species-specific analyses. Boundary Concept 3 was most favorable for bird diversity across the region. Inadequate spatial resolution for fish and invertebrate community data and incompatible sampling effort information for bird and mammal data precluded boundary cost-benefit analysis.

Marketing of value-added products from silver carp and involvement of rural people in the production and marketing chain

Cost-profit analysis and market testing of some value-added products from silver carp such as fish mince block, fish sausage, fish ball, fish stick and fish burger were analyzed during April 2001 to March 2002. The study also explored the possibility to involve rural low-income people in the production and marketing of such products. The production of silver carp was higher in greater Jessore and Mymensingh districts but the price remained low during the peak-harvesting season in October to November. The price varied with size of the fish, season, market characteristics and effective demand of the buyers. Price of about 500 g size fish was found to be Tk. 20-25/kg in the rural markets. The average size of fish in the rural markets was 3S0-550 g while that in the urban markets it was 700-1,200 g. The cost of production of the value added products and profit margin were assessed on the basis of market price of the raw material as well as that of the finished products, transportation, storage and marketing costs. The profit margins of 34%, 39%, 81% and 31% of their sales price were obtained for fish sausage, fish ball, fish stick and fish burger, respectively. Actual production cost could be minimized if the fish is purchased directly from the farmers. Consumer's acceptance and marketability tests showed that both rural and urban people preferred fish ball than fish sausage. However, response towards the taste, flavor and color of fish ball and fish sausage was found to vary with occupations and age of the consumers. A correlation was observed between age group and acceptance of new products. Fish ball, fish stick and fish burger were found to be the most preferable items to the farmers because of easy formulation process with common utensils. Good marketing linkage and requirement of capital had been identified as the prerequisites for operating small-scale business on value-added fish products.

The effect of increase in the number of fishing trips on the economic efficiency of 9.82 m and 11 m fishing trawlers along Kerala coast

Cost-benefit analysis of a 9.82 m and 11 m fishing trawlers based on the number of fishing trips is presented. The number of fishing trips per year determines the profit and loss of the trawler. With the increase in the number of fishing trips, the profit also increase for both the sizes of trawlers. The minimum quantity of prawn and fish to be landed for 0-20% profit for varying number of fishing trips are worked out. The break-even for 9.82 and 11m trawlers was observed to be 185 and 210 fishing trips respectively during 1980-81.

A study on the economic efficiency of hydrogen production from biomass residues in China

As part of Pilot Project of KIP of CAS, a feasibility study of hydrogen production system using biomass residues is conducted. This study is based on a process of oxygen-rich air gasification of biomass in a downdraft gasifier plus CO-shift. The capacity of this system is 6.4 t biomass/d. Applying this system, it is expected that an annual production of 480 billion N m(3) H-2 will be generated for domestic supply in China. The capital cost of the plant used in this study is 1328$/(N m(3)/h) H-2 out, and product supply cost is 0.15$/N m(3) H-2. The cost sensitivity analysis on this system tells that electricity and catalyst cost are the two most important factors to influence hydrogen production cost.

基于栅格邻域可视性相关的最优路径问题的研究

基于可视性的最优路径分析是地形可视性分析中的一项基本功能，属于空间决策支持的范畴，在理论研究和实际应用两方面都具有重要的意义。在传统基于可视性的最优路径分析中，影响通行能力的可视性代价信息为相互独立的0维数值。然而，用0维无关的代价来表示三维地形上点的可视性信息是不全面的，有必要采用一维或更高维的代价表达方式。本文用二维视域来描述三维可视性信息，考虑到邻近点的二维视域相互重叠造成的可视性相关性对最优路径搜索的影响，提出基于栅格邻域可视性相关的最优路径问题。本文对该问题的分类和求解进行了详细的分析和讨论。 本文的创新性工作如下： (1) 改进了传统基于可视性的最优路径搜索问题。对于存在的“真实性”不足之处，考虑地形特征如土地覆盖或土地利用，障碍物及坡度等对通行能力的影响，并将这些影响和可视性信息一起添加到传统的基于可视性的最优路径搜索过程中，所得结果更加符合实际情况。 (2) 提出并求解了一类基于栅格邻域可视性相关的最优路径问题：基于平均视距最小/最大的可视覆盖路径问题。在可视覆盖最优和路径长度最优两个约束条件下，用代表路径平均视野的开阔程度的平均视距来衡量最优可视覆盖路径问题的最优性。通过对平均视距及该类问题目标函数进行建模分析以及预先计算并存储整个地形上的视域信息，用基于视域融合操作的模拟退火算法实现了该类问题的求解。 (3) 提出并求解了一类基于栅格邻域可视性相关的最优路径问题：最小可视覆盖路径问题。在只考虑可视覆盖最优的约束条件下，用代表路径视野开阔程度即“可视覆盖面积”来衡量最优可视覆盖路径问题的最优性。通过对问题目标函数建模及求解方法的比较分析，用Dijkstra算法实现了该类问题的求解。 最后，本文比较了基于栅格邻域可视性相关的和传统基于可视性无关的最不可视路径问题得到的结果。通过对新方法和传统方法应用于求解走私路径所得结果的定量和定性的分析与对比，得出新方法比传统方法准确的结论。

Highly efficient separation of dsDNA fragments on glass chips by using an ultralow viscosity sieving matrix

A novel protocol has been established to separate dsDNA fragments with high efficiency on glass chips by using an ultralow viscosity sieving matrix with added glucose. Low-molecular-weight hydroxypropylmethylcellulose (HPMC), with a viscosity nearly equivalent to that of water, was used to electrophoretically separate fluorescent inter-calator-labeled double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) fragments on microfluidic glass chips. In comparison with conventional sieving protocols, low-molecular-weight HPMC as sieving matrix could result in reduced running cost and analysis time, in addition to a comparable separation efficiency of dsDNA fragments. In this paper, the addition of glucose was investigated to enhance the separation of DNA in the lowest viscosity polymer evaluated. The effect of staining dye and field strength were also evaluated. At an applied electric field strength of 200 V/cm, satisfactory resolution of the PBR322/HaeIII DNA marker could be achieved within 4 min by using 2% HPMC-5 with 6% glucose added. Coelectrophoresing PCR product along with phiX174/HaeIII DNA sizing marker was also demonstrated by using the ultralow viscosity HPMC-5 solution on a glass chip.

企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.

中学生问题解决中操作要求对资源分配的影响

Schema acquisition is one of the mechanisms of learning. How to design reasonable teaching material to promote schema acquisition is an important question that psychological researchers and educators both interested. Cognitive Load Theory indicates that: The cognitive resource of Human is limited, the organization and presentation of the learning material should avoid demanding the learner consume resource in actions that have nothing to do with schema acquisition. How can we do that? Sweller. J. et think: Increasing the operation cost of the learning material would make the students put more resource into the implementation of the operation, this kind of resource consuming has nothing to do with schema acquisition. So, in order to make the students put more resource into actions which relating to schema acquisition, we should decrease the operation cost of the learning material. But, the research results of O'Hara et indicate: In problem-solving of knowledge lean field, increasing the operation cost would make the college students invent more resource to plan and understanding actions. So, Increasing the operation cost would facilitate the schema acquisition. How operation cost will effect the Middle-School Students' (MSS) schema acquisition and resource distribution when they solve problems of knowledge lean/rich field? This is the main question this research want to make inquiry. IN this research, we use three experiments indicate: Increasing the operation cost of actions, the implementing action would be less and the planning action would be more. So, increasing the operation cost can promote the schema acquisition. We use "cost-benefit analysis" strategy to explain this result. This strategy means that: Human is rational, before doing one action, he will weigh the cost and the coming benefit of this action, if the coming benefit is higher than the cost, he will implement this action; if the cost is higher than the coming benefit, this action will be contained. On the one hand, this research further affirms the core opinion of the Cognitive Load Theory: Human's cognitive resource is limited, we should put the limited resource into actions which is related to the schema acquisition; On the other hand, for the learning material designing principle which is advanced by the Cognitive Load Theory, we raise our questions. Besides, the question we raised holds some identical views with the constructive learning opinion: Learning is not passive information absorption, but positively constructing the meaning of the information, besides, this kind of construction can't done by others. The result of this research can provide some theory guidance and experimental basis for the designing of the MSS's science teaching material from a complete new angle.

Badania wartości ekonomicznej usług biblioteczno-informacyjnych i ich wpływu na otoczenie

Biblioteki pełnią różnorodne funkcje we współczesnym otoczeniu społecznym. Uczestniczą w tworzeniu kapitału intelektualnego i społecznego, wpływają na wzrost korzyści ekonomicznych użytkowników i całego społeczeństwa. W artykule omówiono główne podejścia i metody badawcze w zakresie oceny korzyści ekonomicznych płynących z funkcjonowania bibliotek. Skupiono się na metodzie analizy kosztów w stosunku do korzyści (ang. CBA – cost-benefit analysis), metodzie analizy warunkowej (ang. CVM – contigent valuation method), określaniu wartości dodanej dla użytkownika (ang. consumer surplus method) i metodologii oceny stopy wzrostu z inwestycji (ang. ROI – return of investment). Przeanalizowano również różne projekty badań prowadzone na świecie w tym zakresie.