Closing the productivity gap and trade *policy

The relationship between trade policy and productivity growth is regarded as ambiguous in the literature. This dissertation examines under what condition the relationship would be positive (or negative). Through the use of static and dynamic analysis, we find two conflicting effects (the pro-protection effect and the pro-competitive effect) that cause the relationship to be ambiguous. If there exists a productivity gap between the import-competing and foreign industries, and if the level of protection is low (high), the relationship is positive (negative). We also show that the import-competing firm responds to a change in the protection level by choosing a level of investment in innovation which yields a different rate of productivity growth. The policy implication, therefore, is that a trade-policy maker should set the trade protection at a level which induces the firm to choose the highest rate of productivity growth, and, as a result, leading the firm to close the initial productivity gap in the most efficient way. ^

Political parties and trade unions in the post-communist Poland:class politics that have never a chance to happen

Trade unions in Poland have not built the stable and long-term relations with political parties as are observed in Western democracies. By analysing the historical and symbolic background of the transformation to a democratic civil society and free market economy, political preferences of working class, trade union membership rates, and public opinion polls, we argue that, in case of Poland, the initial links between political parties and trade unions weakened over time. Polish trade unions never had a chance to become a long-term intermediary between society and political parties, making the Polish case study a double exception from the traditional models.

Economic and trade relations between Latin America and Asia Pacific: The link with China

Includes bibliography

Uncertainty and Speculators in an Auction for Emissions Permits

Auctions have become popular as means of allocating emissions permits in the emissions trading schemes developed around the world. Mostly, only a subset of the regulated polluters participate in these auctions along with speculators, creating a market with relatively few participants and, thus, incentive for strategic bidding. I characterize the bidding behavior of the polluters and the speculators, examining the effect of the latter on the profits of the former and on the auction outcome. It turns out that in addition to bidding for compliance, polluters also bid for speculation in the aftermarket. While the presence of the speculators forces the polluters to bid closer to their true valuations, it also creates a trade-off between increasing the revenue accrued to the regulator and reducing the profits of the auction-participating polluters. Nevertheless, the profits of the latter increase in the speculators' risk aversion.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

The impacts of US agricultural and trade policy on trade liberalization and integration via a US- Central America free trade agreement

Resumen Este estudio analiza importantes acciones legislativas del 2002 que afectarán sustancialmente las negociaciones comerciales con Estados Unidos; examina, asimismo, la protección de importaciones de ese país con respecto a productos agrícolas que serán críticos en las negociaciones con los países centroamericanos. Las acciones legislativas mencionadas fueron la aprobación del Proyecto de ley Agrícola del 2002 y la aprobación de la Autorización de Promoción Legal, que provee tratamiento del ‘trámite rápido’ de los acuerdos comerciales…

Public capital, productivity and trade balances:some evidence for the Italian regions

This paper analyses the extent to which intensive investments in public capital may have had an unfavourable impact on the regional trade balances across the 20 Italian regions. Our working hypothesis is that investments in public capital, while stimulating the demand for tradables across the regions, may have a limited positive impact on the supply of tradables in regions characterised by relatively low productivity like the South of Italy (or Mezzogiorno). The empirical results are consistent with our expectations and suggest that programs of investments in public capital should be accompanied by additional policy measures that can remove the structural factors that hamper the total factor productivity growth in specific areas. © Springer-Verlag 2008.

Tuberculosis epidemiology in islands: insularity, hosts and trade

Because of their relative simplicity and the barriers to gene flow, islands are ideal systems to study the distribution of biodiversity. However, the knowledge that can be extracted from this peculiar ecosystem regarding epidemiology of economically relevant diseases has not been widely addressed. We used information available in the scientific literature for 10 old world islands or archipelagos and original data on Sicily to gain new insights into the epidemiology of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC). We explored three nonexclusive working hypotheses on the processes modulating bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd prevalence in cattle and MTC strain diversity: insularity, hosts and trade. Results suggest that bTB herd prevalence was positively correlated with island size, the presence of wild hosts, and the number of imported cattle, but neither with isolation nor with cattle density. MTC strain diversity was positively related with cattle bTB prevalence, presence of wild hosts and the number of imported cattle, but not with island size, isolation, and cattle density. The three most common spoligotype patterns coincided between Sicily and mainland Italy. However in Sicily, these common patterns showed a clearer dominance than on the Italian mainland, and seven of 19 patterns (37%) found in Sicily had not been reported from continental Italy. Strain patterns were not spatially clustered in Sicily. We were able to infer several aspects of MTC epidemiology and control in islands and thus in fragmented host and pathogen populations. Our results point out the relevance of the intensity of the cattle commercial networks in the epidemiology of MTC, and suggest that eradication will prove more difficult with increasing size of the island and its environmental complexity, mainly in terms of the diversity of suitable domestic and wild MTC hosts.

Incentive based policies on climate change: taxes and tradable emssions permits

The reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) plays a central role in the environmental policies considered by countries for implementation not only at its own level but also at supranational levels. This thesis is dedicated to investigate some aspects of two of the most relevant climate change policies. The first part is dedicated to emission permit markets and the second part to optimal carbon taxes. On emission permit markets we explore the strategic behavior of oligopolistic firms operating in polluting industrial sectors that are regulated by cap and trade systems. Our aim is to identify how market power influences the main results obtained under perfect competition assumptions and to understand how actions taken in one market affects the outcome of the other related market. A partial equilibrium model is developed for this purpose with specific abatement cost functions. In Chapter 2 we use the model to explain some of the most relevant literature results. In Chapter 3 the model is used to analyze different oligopolistic structures in the product market under the assumption of competitive permits market. There are two significant findings. Firstly, under the assumption of a Stackelberg oligopoly, firms have no incentives for lobbying in order to manipulate permit prices up, as they have under Cournot competition...

Sealing practices in the Near East during the Late Bronze II period: administration and trade in the age of internationalism

This PhD research investigates sealing practices in the Near East during the Late Bronze II period (ca. 1375-1175 BCE). Sealings from archaeological contexts in the Southern Levant, North Syria, Upper and Lower Mesopotamia and South-Western Iran are taken under consideration and analyzed on multiple aspects at local, regional, and international levels. The contextual, functional, and iconographic analysis of these materials, in fact, allows to reconstruct the nature of the transactions and the agents involved in the sealing operations within local administrative systems, highlighting at the same time aspects of inter-regional interactions during the age of internationalism. Following a survey of the available evidence, a corpus consisting of 1845 records from 28 different sites across the ANE, has been filed using MS Access and MS Excel, including 740 unpublished sealing from Karkemish. Among this large evidence, the corpus of recently discovered sealings from Karkemish and the other scattered sealings from the North Syrian provinces, for instance, provide insights on the core-periphery relationships under the Hittite Empire; while the deposit from Building P at Tell Sheikh Hamad, that of the Middle Assyrian houses at Tell Fekheriye, and of the dunnu of Tell Sabi Abyad, significantly contributes to defining the administration of provinces within the Middle Assyrian state and the regional circulation of good. The less extensive evidence from South Mesopotamia under the Kassite rule and from Middle Elamite contexts in South-Western Iran somewhat contribute as well to the understanding of sealing practices in the LB II period. The South Levantine kingdoms, on the other hand, seems participates to the Egyptian regional network of exchanges and sealing practices.

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire fore- casting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical bene ts with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.

The reform of the European Energy Tax Directive reform : effect on prices

[spa] Para hacer frente a los riesgos relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica, es ampliamente aceptada la necesidad de instrumentos de política encaminados a reducir las emisiones. La intervención tiene por objeto reducir las conductas contaminantes y incentivar una conducta más respetuosa y el uso de tecnologías más eficientes. La Unión Europea cuenta con dos importantes mecanismos económicos para el control de emisiones a escala europea: la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos, un instrumento de fiscalidad ambiental aprobado en 2003 que afecta el precio de los productos energéticos, y el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, introducido en 2005, que afecta directamente a la cantidad de emisiones de CO2. En 2011, la Comisión Europea propuso una nueva versión de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos. El objetivo principal de la propuesta es aumentar la eficacia del instrumento a través de una mayor presión fiscal sobre los productos energéticos y de coordinar este instrumento de fiscalidad medioambiental con el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, para establecer una señal de precio de CO2 coherente para todos los sectores. Sin embargo, en mayo de 2012 el Parlamento Europeo bloqueó la propuesta de la nueva versión del impuesto, y el proceso de actualización se detuvo. La preocupación principal parecía ser el efecto de dicha propuesta en la competitividad, en particular para los sectores que serían los más afectados dado el uso intensivo de los productos energéticos, como el sector del transporte. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el efecto que la reforma de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos podría tener sobre el nivel de precios, en particular en los países de la Unión Europea donde esta reforma implicaría un aumento de los impuestos energéticos. Utilizando datos del proyecto “World Input-Output Database”, la principal conclusión es que el nuevo sistema de impuestos energéticos tendría un impacto muy bajo sobre los precios. Por lo tanto, dado que los precios no serían fuertemente afectados por la reforma, no habrá inconvenientes para la competitividad y implicaciones en términos de distribución, pero, por otro lado, este resultado también implica una baja capacidad de esta reforma para provocar cambios en el consumo y la producción hacia menos presiones ambientales.

The reform of the European Energy Tax Directive reform : effect on prices

[spa] Para hacer frente a los riesgos relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica, es ampliamente aceptada la necesidad de instrumentos de política encaminados a reducir las emisiones. La intervención tiene por objeto reducir las conductas contaminantes y incentivar una conducta más respetuosa y el uso de tecnologías más eficientes. La Unión Europea cuenta con dos importantes mecanismos económicos para el control de emisiones a escala europea: la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos, un instrumento de fiscalidad ambiental aprobado en 2003 que afecta el precio de los productos energéticos, y el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, introducido en 2005, que afecta directamente a la cantidad de emisiones de CO2. En 2011, la Comisión Europea propuso una nueva versión de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos. El objetivo principal de la propuesta es aumentar la eficacia del instrumento a través de una mayor presión fiscal sobre los productos energéticos y de coordinar este instrumento de fiscalidad medioambiental con el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, para establecer una señal de precio de CO2 coherente para todos los sectores. Sin embargo, en mayo de 2012 el Parlamento Europeo bloqueó la propuesta de la nueva versión del impuesto, y el proceso de actualización se detuvo. La preocupación principal parecía ser el efecto de dicha propuesta en la competitividad, en particular para los sectores que serían los más afectados dado el uso intensivo de los productos energéticos, como el sector del transporte. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el efecto que la reforma de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos podría tener sobre el nivel de precios, en particular en los países de la Unión Europea donde esta reforma implicaría un aumento de los impuestos energéticos. Utilizando datos del proyecto “World Input-Output Database”, la principal conclusión es que el nuevo sistema de impuestos energéticos tendría un impacto muy bajo sobre los precios. Por lo tanto, dado que los precios no serían fuertemente afectados por la reforma, no habrá inconvenientes para la competitividad y implicaciones en términos de distribución, pero, por otro lado, este resultado también implica una baja capacidad de esta reforma para provocar cambios en el consumo y la producción hacia menos presiones ambientales.

L’opinion publique canadienne sur les changements climatiques et les politiques de contrôle des émissions de gaz à effet de serre

Notes d'analyse de la Chaire d’études politiques et économiques américaines

Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy

Existing fuel taxes play a major role in determining the welfare effects of exempting the transportation sector from measures to control greenhouse gases. To study this phenomenon we modify the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to disaggregate the household transportation sector. This improvement requires an extension of the GTAP data set that underlies the model. The revised and extended facility is then used to compare economic costs of cap-and-trade systems differentiated by sector, focusing on two regions: the USA where the fuel taxes are low, and Europe where the fuel taxes are high. We find that the interplay between carbon policies and pre-existing taxes leads to different results in these regions: in the USA exemption of transport from such a system would increase the welfare cost of achieving a national emissions target, while in Europe such exemptions will correct pre-existing distortions and reduce the cost.