Quantum measurement of coherent tunnelling between quantum dots

We describe the conditional and unconditional dynamics of two coupled quantum dots when one dot is subjected to a measurement of its occupation number by coupling it to a third readout dot via the Coulomb interaction. The readout dot is coupled to source and drain leads under weak bias, and a tunnel current flows through a single bound state when energetically allowed. The occupation of the quantum dot near the readout dot shifts the bound state of the readout dot from a low conducting state to a high conducting state. The measurement is made by continuously monitoring the tunnel current through the readout dot. We show that there is a difference between the time scale for the measurement-induced decoherence between the localized states of the dots, and the time scale on which the system becomes localized due to the measurement.

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Condition of Employment, 2003

For much of American economic history, strength and manual dexterity could assure both a job and a reasonably comfortable standard of living. This is no longer the case as the industrial structure of American society has moved from agricultural to manufacturing to a service-producing economy. Today, we are changing the way we look at industries, jobs and, by extension, our economy. One of the responsibilities of Iowa Workforce Development is to study and report on those aspects of the economy that affect the working lives of Iowans – jobs, industrial employment, wages, and occupations. Condition of Employment 2003 is one of the vehicles we use to describe trends in the Iowa economy and the Iowa workplace.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

Smooth transition or permanent exit? Evidence on job prospects of displaced industrial workers

This article examines the job prospects of displaced industrial workers in Switzerland. Based on a survey of 1,203 workers who were dismissed after their manufacturing plants closed down, we analyse the determinants of re-employment, the sector of re-employment and the change in wages. Two years after displacement, a majority of workers were back in employment: 69% were re-employed, 17% un-employed and 11% retired. Amongst re-employed workers, two thirds found a job in manufacturing and one third in services. Contrary to a common belief, low-end services are not the collecting vessel of redundant industrial workers. Displaced workers aged 55 and older seem particularly vulnerable after a plant closes down: over 30% were long-term unemployed, and those older workers who found a new job suffered disproportionate wage losses. Advanced age-and not low education-appears as the primary handicap after mass redundancy.

Nuevas series anuales de población de América Latina desde el siglo XIX hasta el 2000

El estudio de la población en América Latina es un tema central en la historiografía de la región, sin embargo, las distintas estimaciones existentes muestran importantes discrepancias para los siglos XIX y XX. A partir del contraste de distintas bases de datos, la principal contribución del artículo consiste en ofrecer nuevas series de población homogéneas para el conjunto de países de América Latina, junto a una detallada explicación de la obtención de los datos, así como un análisis de las discrepancias que las distintas fuentes muestran. Los países que aborda este trabajo son Argentina, Brasil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Ecuador, Haití, Honduras, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, República Dominicana, Uruguay y Venezuela; a lo que se agrega la suma de todos ellos para obtener la población latinoamericana. Estas nuevas series pueden resultar de gran utilidad para reinterpretar la historia económica de América Latina en el largo plazo. The analysis of population levels in Latin America plays an important role in the regional historiography. The estimated series appeared until now offers huge discrepancies, therefore, we believe essential to provide homogeneous series for the 19th and the 20th centuries. In our work we shed new light on this issue, from an exhaustive study of the existing Latin American historical sources for the region. Along with a detailed explanation of the data collection, we also provide an analysis of the discrepancies and the accuracy of sources. The study offers data from 21 countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela. This new evidence can be a crucial information to revisit Latin American Economic History in the long run.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Safety Traps

Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a "safe" one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it is self-reinforcing as investors accumulate more wealth and show it to be consistent with Japan's lost decade.

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Positive Self-Image in Tournaments

This article analyzes the implications of worker overestimation of productivity for firms in which incentives take the form of tournaments. Each worker overestimates his productivity but is aware of the bias in his opponent's self-assessment. The manager of the firm, on the other hand, correctly assesses workers' productivities and self-beliefs when setting tournament prizes. The article shows that, under a variety of circumstances, firms can benefit from worker positive self-image. The article also shows that worker positive self-image can improve welfare in tournaments. In contrast, workers' utility declines due to their own misguided choices.

Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston (IMF) julkaisut

International Monetary Fund (IMF) eli Kansainvälinen valuuttarahasto perustettiin v. 1945 valvomaan 187 jäsenmaansa rahoitusjärjestelmiä ja edistämään rahoitusmarkkinoiden vakautta ja kansainvälistä kauppaa. IMF julkaisee kansainvälisiä maksutasetilastoja n. 200 maasta, ulkomaankaupan tilastotietoa, aikasarjoja v. 1948 lähtien ja valtiontalouden rahoitustilastoja sekä maakohtaisia raportteja. Painettuun kokoelmaan kuuluu vuosikertomuksia, kausijulkaisuja, tilastoja ja monografioita. Ne käsittelevät makrotaloutta, taloudellista kehitystä, rahoitusmarkkinoita, kansainvälistä taloutta ja valuuttamarkkinoita. Kokoelmassa on yhteensä n. 4342 nimekettä ja se karttuu jatkuvasti. Kokoelman vanhin julkaisu on vuodelta 1944. Suurin osa kokoelman julkaisuista on ilmestynyt v. 1995 - 2011. Sitä uudempia ei ole enää hankittu painettuina. Kokoelmaan kuuluu erilaisia vuosikirjoja pitkältä ajanjaksolta, kuten Annual report (1948 -), Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements (1990 -), Balance of payments statistics yearbook (1938 - ), Direction of trade statistics yearbook (1958 - ), Government finance statistics yearbook (1952 - ) ja International financial statistics yearbook (1991 - ). Kokoelma sisältää myös kausijulkaisuja kuten Economic review (1951 - ), IMF staff papers (1951 -) ja International financial statistics (1948 -). Kokoelmaan kuuluvat myös elektronisia julkaisuja sisältävät IMF E-Library ja AREAER -tietokannat. AREAR-tietokannassa on Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements -julkaisut sähköisessä muodossa. Tietokannassa on dataa mm. IMF:n jäsenmaiden valuutta- ja kauppajärjestelyistä. IMF E-Library, sisältää elektronisia julkaisuja sekä tilastotietokannat: International financial statistics (IFS), Balance of payments statistics (BOP), Direction of trade statistics (DOT) ja Government finance statistics (GFS). Julkaisuja on yhteensä n. 11 806. Kokoelman uudempaa osaa säilytetään Suomen Pankin kirjaston avokokoelmassa ja vanhempaa varastokokoelmassa. Painetut julkaisut ovat käytettävissä kirjastossa ja lainattavissa lukuun ottamatta tilastojulkaisuja, kausijulkaisuja ja vuosikirjoja. Elektronisia tietokantoja voi käyttää vain organisaation henkilökunta.

Strike hard, strike sure - Operation Musketeer : British military planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

Operation Musketeer, a combined joint Anglo-French operation aimed at regaining control of the Suez Canal in 1956, has received much attention from scholars. The most common approach to the crisis has been to examine the political dimension. The political events that led Prime Minister Anthony Eden’s cabinet to decide to use military force against the wishes of their superior American ally and in the face of American economic pressure and a Soviet threat to attack Paris and London with rockets have been analysed thoroughly. This is particularly the case because the ceasefire and eventual withdrawal were an indisputable defeat of British policy in the Middle East. The military operation not only ruined Prime Minister Eden’s career, but it also diminished the prestige of Britain. It was the beginning of the end, some claim. The British Empire would never be the same. As the consequences of using force are generally considered more important than the military operations themselves, very little attention has been paid to the military planning of Operation Musketeer. The difference between the number of publications on Operation Corporate of the Falklands War and Operation Musketeer is striking. Not only has there been little previous research on the military aspects of Musketeer, the conclusions drawn in the existing works have not reached a consensus. Some historians, such as Correlli Barnett, compare Musketeer to the utter failures of the Tudor landings and Gallipoli. Among significant politicians, Winston Churchill, who had retired from the prime ministership only a year before the Suez Crisis, described the operation as “the most ill-conceived and ill-executed imaginable”. Colin McInnes, a well-known author on British defence policy, represents the middle view when he describes the execution as “far from failure”. Finally, some, like Julian Thompson, the Commander of 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War, rate the military action itself as being successful. The interpretation of how successful the handling of the Suez Crisis was from the military point of view depends very much on the approach taken and the areas emphasised in the subject. Frequently, military operations are analysed in isolation from other events. The action of a country’s armed forces is separated from the wider context and evaluated without a solid point of comparison. Political consequences are often used as validated criteria, and complicated factors contributing to military performance are ignored. The lack of comprehensive research on the military action has left room for an analysis concentrating on the military side of the crisis.

Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.