Morphological scoring of human pronuclear zygotes for prediction of pregnancy outcome.

BACKGROUND: As embryo selection is not allowed by law in Switzerland, we need a single early scoring system to identify zygotes with high implantation potential and to select zygotes for fresh transfer or cryopreservation. The underlying aim is to maximize the cumulated pregnancy rate while limiting the number of multiple pregnancies. METHODS: In all, 613 fresh and 617 frozen-thawed zygotes were scored for proximity, orientation and centring of the pronuclei, cytoplasmic halo, and number and polarization of the nucleolar precursor bodies. From these individual scores, a cumulated pronuclear score (CPNS) was calculated. Correlation between CPNS and implantation was examined and compared between fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. The effect of freezing on CPNS was also investigated. RESULTS: CPNS was positively associated with embryo implantation in both fresh and frozen zygotes. With similar CPNS, frozen zygotes presented implantation rates as high as those of fresh zygotes. Nucleolar precursor bodies pattern and cytoplasmic halo appeared as the most important factors predictive of implantation for both types of zygotes, while pronuclei position was specifically relevant for frozen-thawed zygotes. Freezing induced an alteration of most zygote parameters, resulting in a significantly lower CPNS and a lower pregnancy rate. CONCLUSIONS: CPNS may be used as a single prognostic tool for implantation of both fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. Lower CPNS values of frozen-thawed zygotes may also be indicative of freezing damage to zygotes. Successful implantation of frozen zygotes despite lower CPNS suggests that they may recover after thawing and in vitro culture.

Could a satellite-based navigation system (GPS) be used to assess the physical activity of individuals on earth?

OBJECTIVES: To test whether the Global Positioning System (GPS) could be potentially useful to assess the velocity of walking and running in humans. SUBJECT: A young man was equipped with a GPS receptor while walking running and cycling at various velocity on an athletic track. The speed of displacement assessed by GPS, was compared to that directly measured by chronometry (76 tests). RESULTS: In walking and running conditions (from 2-20 km/h) as well as cycling conditions (from 20-40 km/h), there was a significant relationship between the speed assessed by GPS and that actually measured (r = 0.99, P < 0.0001) with little bias in the prediction of velocity. The overall error of prediction (s.d. of difference) averaged +/-0.8 km/h. CONCLUSION: The GPS technique appears very promising for speed assessment although the relative accuracy at walking speed is still insufficient for research purposes. It may be improved by using differential GPS measurement.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

Improving prediction of recanalization in acute large-vessel occlusive stroke.

BACKGROUND: Recanalization in acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion is a potent indicator of good clinical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify easily available clinical and radiologic variables predicting recanalization at various occlusion sites. METHODS: All consecutive, acute stroke patients from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (2003-2011) who had a large-vessel occlusion on computed tomographic angiography (CTA) (< 12 h) were included. Recanalization status was assessed at 24 h (range: 12-48 h) with CTA, magnetic resonance angiography, or ultrasonography. Complete and partial recanalization (corresponding to the modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia scale 2-3) were grouped together. Patients were categorized according to occlusion site and treatment modality. RESULTS: Among 439 patients, 51% (224) showed complete or partial recanalization. In multivariate analysis, recanalization of any occlusion site was most strongly associated with endovascular treatment, including bridging therapy (odds ratio [OR] 7.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-23.2), and less so with intravenous thrombolysis (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.6) and recanalization treatments performed beyond guidelines (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Clot location (large vs. intermediate) and tandem pathology (the combination of intracranial occlusion and symptomatic extracranial stenosis) were other variables discriminating between recanalizers and non-recanalizers. For patients with intracranial occlusions, the variables significantly associated with recanalization after 24 h were: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.1), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on initial computed tomography (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and an altered level of consciousness (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Acute endovascular treatment is the single most important factor promoting recanalization in acute ischemic stroke. The presence of extracranial vessel stenosis or occlusion decreases recanalization rates. In patients with intracranial occlusions, higher NIHSS score and ASPECTS and normal vigilance facilitate recanalization. Clinical use of these predictors could influence recanalization strategies in individual patients.

Brachial artery peak velocity variation to predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

INTRODUCTION Although several parameters have been proposed to predict the hemodynamic response to fluid expansion in critically ill patients, most of them are invasive or require the use of special monitoring devices. The aim of this study is to determine whether noninvasive evaluation of respiratory variation of brachial artery peak velocity flow measured using Doppler ultrasound could predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. METHODS We conducted a prospective clinical research in a 17-bed multidisciplinary ICU and included 38 mechanically ventilated patients for whom fluid administration was planned due to the presence of acute circulatory failure. Volume expansion (VE) was performed with 500 mL of a synthetic colloid. Patients were classified as responders if stroke volume index (SVi) increased >or= 15% after VE. The respiratory variation in Vpeakbrach (DeltaVpeakbrach) was calculated as the difference between maximum and minimum values of Vpeakbrach over a single respiratory cycle, divided by the mean of the two values and expressed as a percentage. Radial arterial pressure variation (DeltaPPrad) and stroke volume variation measured using the FloTrac/Vigileo system (DeltaSVVigileo), were also calculated. RESULTS VE increased SVi by >or= 15% in 19 patients (responders). At baseline, DeltaVpeakbrach, DeltaPPrad and DeltaSVVigileo were significantly higher in responder than nonresponder patients [14 vs 8%; 18 vs. 5%; 13 vs 8%; P < 0.0001, respectively). A DeltaVpeakbrach value >10% predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 95%. A DeltaPPrad value >10% and a DeltaSVVigileo >11% predicted volume responsiveness with a sensitivity of 95% and 79%, and a specificity of 95% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Respiratory variations in brachial artery peak velocity could be a feasible tool for the noninvasive assessment of fluid responsiveness in patients with mechanical ventilatory support and acute circulatory failure. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00890071.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Prediction of postpartum depression using multilayer perceptrons and pruning.

OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.

Comparison of plantar pressure distribution in adolescent runners at low vs. high running velocity.

This study aimed to compare foot plantar pressure distribution while jogging and running in highly trained adolescent runners. Eleven participants performed two constant-velocity running trials either at jogging (11.2 ± 0.9 km/h) or running (17.8 ± 1.4 km/h) pace on a treadmill. Contact area (CA in cm(2)), maximum force (F(max) in N), peak pressure (PP in kPa), contact time (CT in ms), and relative load (force time integral in each individual region divided by the force time integral for the total plantar foot surface, in %) were measured in nine regions of the right foot using an in-shoe plantar pressure device. Under the whole foot, CA, F(max) and PP were lower in jogging than in running (-1.2% [p<0.05], -12.3% [p<0.001] and -15.1% [p<0.01] respectively) whereas CT was higher (+20.1%; p<0.001). Interestingly, we found an increase in relative load under the medial and central forefoot regions while jogging (+6.7% and +3.7%, respectively; [p<0.05]), while the relative load under the lesser toes (-8.4%; p<0.05) was reduced. In order to prevent overloading of the metatarsals in adolescent runners, excessive mileage at jogging pace should be avoided.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Role of comorbidities in outcome prediction after status epilepticus.

Status epilepticus (SE) is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. A reliable prognosis may help better manage medical resources and treatment strategies. We examined the role of preexisting comorbidities on the outcome of patients with SE, an aspect that has received little attention to date. We prospectively studied incident SE episodes in 280 adults occurring over 55 months in our tertiary care hospital, excluding patients with postanoxic encephalopathy. Different models predicting mortality and return to clinical baseline at hospital discharge were compared, which included demographics, SE etiology, a validated clinical Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS), and comorbidities (assessed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index) as independent variables. The overall short-term mortality was 14%, and only half of patients returned to their clinical baseline. On bivariate analyses, age, STESS, potentially fatal etiologies, and number of preexisting comorbidities were all significant predictors of both mortality and return to clinical baseline. As compared with the simplest predictive model (including demographics and deadly etiology), adding SE severity and comorbidities resulted in an improved predictive performance (C statistics 0.84 vs. 0.77 for mortality, and 0.86 vs. 0.82. for return to clinical baseline); comorbidities, however, were not independently related to outcome. Considering comorbidities and clinical presentation, in addition to age and etiology, slightly improves the prediction of SE outcome with respect to both survival and functional status. This analysis also emphasizes the robust predictive role of etiology and age.

The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women.

SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

La cohorte OstéoLaus: évaluation des outils de routine clinique pour la prédiction de la fracture ostéoporotique [OsteoLaus: prediction of osteoporotic fractures by clinical risk factors and DXA, IVA and TBS].

OsteoLaus is a cohort of 1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip bone mineral density (BMD), assessment of vertebral fracture by DXA, and microarchitecture evaluation by TBS (Trabecular Bone Score) will be recorded. TBS is a new parameter obtained after a re-analysis of a DXA exam. TBS is correlated with parameters of microarchitecture. His reproducibility is good. TBS give an added diagnostic value to BMD, and predict osteoporotic fracture (partially) independently to BMD. The position of TBS in clinical routine in complement to BMD and clinical risk factors will be evaluated in the OsteoLaus cohort.

A Bayesian approach for pervasive estimation of breaststroke velocity using a wearable IMU

A ubiquitous assessment of swimming velocity (main metric of the performance) is essential for the coach to provide a tailored feedback to the trainee. We present a probabilistic framework for the data-driven estimation of the swimming velocity at every cycle using a low-cost wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU). The statistical validation of the method on 15 swimmers shows that an average relative error of 0.1 ± 9.6% and high correlation with the tethered reference system (rX,Y=0.91 ) is achievable. Besides, a simple tool to analyze the influence of sacrum kinematics on the performance is provided.

Prediction of sustained antihypertensive efficacy of chronic captopril therapy: relationships to immediate blood pressure response and control plasma renin activity

The blood pressure (BP) lowering effect of the orally active angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, captopril (SQ14225), was studied in 59 hypertensive patients maintained on a constant sodium intake. Within 2 hours of the first dose of captopril BP fell from 171/107 to a maximum low of 142/92 mm Hg (p less than 0.001), and after 4 to 8 days to treatment BP averaged 145/94 mm Hg (p less than 0.001). The magnitude of BP drop induced by captopril was significantly correlated to baseline plasma renin activity (PRA) both during the acute phase (r = -0.38, p less than 0.01) and after the 4 to 8-day interval (r = -0.33, p less than 0.01). Because of considerable scatter in individual data, renin profiling was not precisely predictive of the immediate or delayed BP response of separate patients. However, the BP levels achieved following the initial dose of captopril were closely correlated to BP measured after 4 to 8 days of therapy, and appeared to have greater predictive value than control PRA of the long-term efficacy of chronic captopril therapy despite marked BP changes occurring in some patients during the intermediate period. Because of these intermediate BP changes, addition of a diuretic to enhance antihypertensive effectiveness of angiotensin blockade should be restrained for several days after initiation of captopril therapy.