Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Arachidonic acid actions on functional integrity and attenuation of the negative effects of palmitic acid in a clonal pancreatic beta-cell line

Chronic exposure of pancreatic beta-cells to saturated non-esterified fatty acids can lead to inhibition of insulin secretion and apoptosis. Several previous studies have demonstrated that saturated fatty acids such as PA (palmitic acid) are detrimental to beta-cell function compared with unsaturated fatty acids. In the present study, we describe the effect of the polyunsaturated AA (arachidonic acid) on the function of the clonal pancreatic beta-cell line BRIN-BD11 and demonstrate AA-dependent attenuation of PA effects. When added to beta-cell incubations at 100 mu M, AA can stimulate cell proliferation and chronic (24 h) basal insulin secretion. Microarray analysis and/or real-time PCR indicated significant AA-dependent up-regulation of genes involved in proliferation and fatty acid metabolism [e.g. Angptl (angiopoietin-like protein 4), Ech1 (peroxisomal Delta(3.5),Delta(2.4)-dienoyl-CoA isomerase), Cox-1 (cyclo-oxygenase-1) and Cox-2, P < 0.05]. Experiments using specific COX and LOX (lipoxygenase) inhibitors demonstrated the importance of COX-1 activity for acute (20 min) stimulation of insulin secretion, suggesting that AA metabolites may be responsible for the insulinotropic effects. Moreover, concomitant incubation of AA with PA dose-dependently attenuated the detrimental effects of the saturated fatty acid, so reducing apoptosis and decreasing parameters of oxidative stress [ROS (reactive oxygen species) and NO levels] while improving the GSH/GSSG ratio. AA decreased the protein expression of iNOS (inducible NO synthase), the p65 subunit of NF-kappa B (nuclear factor kappa B) and the p47 subunit of NADPH oxidase in PA-treated cells. These findings indicate that AA has an important regulatory and protective beta-cell action, which may be beneficial to function and survival in the `lipotoxic` environment commonly associated with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Differential gene expression analysis of iodide-treated rat thyroid follicular cell line PCCl3

The inhibitory effect of supraphysiological iodide concentrations on thyroid hormone synthesis (Wolff - Chaikoff effect) and on thyrocyte proliferation is largely known as iodine autoregulation. However, the molecular mechanisms by which iodide modulates thyroid function remain unclear. In this paper, we analyze the transcriptome profile of the rat follicular cell lineage PCCl3 under untreated and treated conditions with 10 (- 3) M sodium iodide (NaI). Serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) revealed 84 transcripts differentially expressed in response to iodide (p <= 0.001). We also showed that iodide excess inhibits the expression of essential genes for thyroid differentiation: Tshr, Nis, Tg, and Tpo. Relative expression of 14 of 20 transcripts selected by SAGE was confirmed by real-time PCR. Considering the key role of iodide organification in thyroid physiology, we also observed that both the oxidized form of iodide and iodide per se are responsible for gene expression modulation in response to iodide excess. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application Of Real-Time Control Strategy To Improve Nitrogen Removal In Wastewater Treatment

Biological nitrogen removal is an important task in the wastewater treatment. However, the actual removal of total nitrogen (TN) in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is often unsatisfactory due to several causes, one of which is the insufficient availability of carbon source. One possible approach to improve the nitrogen removal therefore is addition of external carbon source, while the amount of which is directly related to operation cost of a WWTP. It is obviously necessary to determine the accurate amount of addition of external carbon source according to the demand depending on the influent wastewater quality. This study focused on the real-time control of external carbon source addition based on the on-line monitoring of influent wastewater quality. The relationship between the influent wastewater quality (specifically the concentration of COD and ammonia) and the demand of carbon source was investigated through experiments on a pilot-scale A/O reactor (1m3) at the Nanjing WWTP, China. The minimum doses of carbon source addition at different situations of influent wastewater quality were determined to ensure the effluent wastewater quality meets the discharge standard. The obtained relationship is expected to be applied in the full-scale WWTPs. .

Collateral, default penalties and almost finite-time solvency

We argue that it is possible to adapt the approach of imposing restrictions on available plans through finitely effective debt constraints, introduced by Levine and Zame (1996), to encompass models with default and collateral. Along this line, we introduce in the setting of Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002) and Páscoa and Seghir (2008) the concept of almost finite-time solvency. We show that the conditions imposed in these two papers to rule out Ponzi schemes implicitly restrict actions to be almost finite-time solvent. We define the notion of equilibrium with almost finite-time solvency and look on sufficient conditions for its existence. Assuming a mild assumption on default penalties, namely that agents are myopic with respect to default penalties, we prove that existence is guaranteed (and Ponzi schemes are ruled out) when actions are restricted to be almost finite-time solvent. The proof is very simple and intuitive. In particular, the main existence results in Araujo et al. (2002) and Páscoa and Seghir (2008) are simple corollaries of our existence result.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Retirado do blog de Marc Pickren do dia 13 jun. 2014.

Watching the World Cup, one data point at a time

Sound the vuvuzelas, the World Cup is officially here. The biggest sporting event in the world is set to break all kinds of viewing records. Sporting in the digital world is just as much about stats as it is about the game itself. Enter Brandwatch. The social media analytics company has taken it upon itself to track social media statistics for the entire run of the World Cup with their new real-time data visualization tool.

Inexpensive solution for real-time video and image stitching

Image stitching is the process of joining several images to obtain a bigger view of a scene. It is used, for example, in tourism to transmit to the viewer the sensation of being in another place. I am presenting an inexpensive solution for automatic real time video and image stitching with two web cameras as the video/image sources. The proposed solution relies on the usage of several markers in the scene as reference points for the stitching algorithm. The implemented algorithm is divided in four main steps, the marker detection, camera pose determination (in reference to the markers), video/image size and 3d transformation, and image translation. Wii remote controllers are used to support several steps in the process. The built‐in IR camera provides clean marker detection, which facilitates the camera pose determination. The only restriction in the algorithm is that markers have to be in the field of view when capturing the scene. Several tests where made to evaluate the final algorithm. The algorithm is able to perform video stitching with a frame rate between 8 and 13 fps. The joining of the two videos/images is good with minor misalignments in objects at the same depth of the marker,misalignments in the background and foreground are bigger. The capture process is simple enough so anyone can perform a stitching with a very short explanation. Although real‐time video stitching can be achieved by this affordable approach, there are few shortcomings in current version. For example, contrast inconsistency along the stitching line could be reduced by applying a color correction algorithm to every source videos. In addition, the misalignments in stitched images due to camera lens distortion could be eased by optical correction algorithm. The work was developed in Apple’s Quartz Composer, a visual programming environment. A library of extended functions was developed using Xcode tools also from Apple.

Breed and selection line differences in the temperament of beef cattle

O temperamento de quatro raças bovinas foi avaliado utilizando-se o teste de velocidade de fuga (FT) e o escore de comportamento (BST). FT foi definida como o tempo necessário para animais percorrerem uma distância de 2 m após a pesagem. BST foi baseada no comportamento dos animais na balança, amostrando-se quatro categorias de comportamento: movimentos, intensidade de respiração, vocalizações e coices. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade de FT e BST foram estimados com uso de um modelo de máxima verossimilhança restrita, considerando meio irmãos paternos. Caracu apresentou menores médias para BST do que as demais raças. Nelore apresentou resultados intermediários, seguida por Guzerat e Gyr com médias mais elevadas (p < 0,05). Resultados similares foram observados para FT, mas as médias de Caracu e Nelore não diferiram entre si. Observou-se baixa associação entre FT e BST (r p= -0,36; p < 0,01). A correlação entre rank de touros ordenados pelos seus valores preditos (p) para FT e BST foi moderada e negativa (r s = -0,63; p < 0,001). A herdabilidade de FT e BST foi de 0,35 e 0,34, respectivamente. A comparação de rebanhos Nelore com diferentes critérios de seleção para peso corporal mostrou que linhas de seleção podem modular positivamente o temperamento de Bos indicus.

Time-periodic perturbation of a Lienard equation with an unbounded homoclinic loop

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Off line extraction of phenol from human urine sample with isoamyl alcohol and determination by HPLC

This method has been developed for extraction and determination of phenol in a urine sample by high performance liquid chromatography.After acid hydrolysis, the free phenol was extracted with isoamyl alcohol solvent, followed by back extraction with 0.5 mol.L-1 sodium hydroxide solution and analyzed by an isocratic HPLC Varian System, equipped with reverse-phase column (MicroPak-C-18). The mobile phase was acetonitrile in 0.01 mol.L-1 hydrochloric acid solution, (20:80 v/v), and at a now-rate of 1.0 mL.min-1. The chromatogram was monitored at 220 nm in room temperature. The identification was based on retention time and the quantification was performed by automatic peak-area determination, corrected for the external standards method.The recovery was higher than 99.5 % for phenol and reproducibility of method was shown to be 2.3% standard deviation and 5.6% coefficient of variance (n=20). The limit detection was 0.05 mgL(-1) and a range of 0.05 to 20.0 mgL(-1) of phenol for linearity.

Alkaloids extracted from Pterogyne nitens induce apoptosis in malignant breast cell line

In the present study, two alkaloids isolated from Pterogyne nitens, a plant native to Brazil, have been shown to induce apoptosis in human breast cancer cells. These compounds, pterogynine (PGN) and pterogynidine (PGD), were tested for their effect on a human infiltrating ductal carcinoma cell line (ZR-7531). The cell line was treated with each alkaloid at several concentrations. Time-dependence (with or without recuperation time) and concentration-dependence (in the range 0.25-10 mM) were investigated in cytotoxicity and apoptosis assays. The annexin assay indicated an apparently higher percentage of death by necrosis of malignant cells after 24 h exposure to both P. nitens extracts than the Hoechst assay. Thus, our results in the two tests demonstrated that the Hoechst assay can discriminate between late apoptotic cells and necrosis, whereas the flow cytometry-based annexin V assay cannot. We concluded that PGN and PGD have effective antineoplastic activity against human breast cancer cells in vitro, by inducing programmed cell death.

Fault Current Limiter Using YBCO Coated Conductor-The Limiting Factor and Its Recovery Time

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Line-pack management for producing electric power on peak periods

The distribution of natural gas is carried out by means of long ducts and intermediate compression stations to compensate the pressure drops due to friction. The natural gas compressors are usually driven by an electric motor or a gas turbine system, offering possibilities for energy management, one of these consisting in generating energy for use in-plant or to commercialize as independent power producer. It can be done by matching the natural gas demand, at the minimum pressure allowed in the reception point, and the storage capacity of the feed duct with the maximum compressor capacity, for storing the natural gas at the maximum permitted pressure. This allows the gas turbine to drive an electric generator during the time in which the decreasing pressure in duct is above the minimum acceptable by the sink unit. In this paper, a line-pack management analysis is done for an existing compression station considering its actual demand curve for determining the economic feasibility of maintaining the gas turbine system driver generating electricity in a peak and off-peak tariff structure. The potential of cost reduction from the point of view of energy resources (natural gas and electric costs) is also analyzed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposal of an alternative transmission line model for symmetrical and asymmetrical configurations

This article shows a transmission line model for simulation of fast and slow transients, applied to symmetrical or asymmetrical configurations. A transmission line model is developed based on lumped elements representation and state-space techniques. The proposed methodology represents a practical procedure to model three-phase transmission lines directly in time domain, without the explicit or implicit use of inverse transforms. In three-phase representation, analysis modal techniques are applied to decouple the phases in their respective propagation modes, using a correction procedure to set a real and constant matrix for untransposed lines with or without vertical symmetry plane. The proposed methodology takes into account the frequency-dependent parameters of the line and in order to include this effect in the state matrices, a fitting procedure is applied. To verify the accuracy of the proposed state-space model in frequency domain, a simple methodology is described based on line distributed parameters and transfer function associated with input/output signals of the lumped parameters representation. In addition, this article proposes the use of a fast and robust integration procedure to solve the state equations, enabling transient and steady-state simulations. The results obtained by the proposed methodology are compared with several established transmission line models in EMTP, taking into account an asymmetrical three-phase transmission line. The principal contribution of the proposed methodology is to handle a steady fundamental signal mixed with fast and slow transients, including impulsive and oscillatory behavior, by a practical procedure applied directly in time domain for symmetrical or asymmetrical representations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.