Towards Qualitative Approaches to Bayesian Evidential Reasoning

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

On Qualitative Probabilities for Legal Reasoning about Evidence

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

Religion and Subjective Well-Being Among China’s Elderly Population

Evidence from developed and developing countries alike demonstrates a strongly positive relationship between religiosity and happiness, particularly for women and particularly among the elderly. Using survey data from the oldest old in China, we find a strong negative relationship between religious participation and subjective well-being in a rich multivariate logistic framework that controls for demographics, health and disabilities, living arrangements and marital status, wealth and income, lifestyle and social networks, and location. In contrast to other studies, we also find that religion has a larger effect on subjective well-being on men than women.

Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments

The regimen of environmental flows (EF) must be included as terms of environmental demand in the management of water resources. Even though there are numerous methods for the computation of EF, the criteria applied at different steps in the calculation process are quite subjective whereas the results are fixed values that must be meet by water planners. This study presents a friendly-user tool for the assessment of the probability of compliance of a certain EF scenario with the natural regimen in a semiarid area in southern Spain. 250 replications of a 25-yr period of different hydrological variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum flows, ...) were obtained at the study site from the combination of Monte Carlo technique and local hydrological relationships. Several assumptions are made such as the independence of annual rainfall from year to year and the variability of occurrence of the meteorological agents, mainly precipitation as the main source of uncertainty. Inputs to the tool are easily selected from a first menu and comprise measured rainfall data, EF values and the hydrological relationships for at least a 20-yr period. The outputs are the probabilities of compliance of the different components of the EF for the study period. From this, local optimization can be applied to establish EF components with a certain level of compliance in the study period. Different options for graphic output and analysis of results are included in terms of graphs and tables in several formats. This methodology turned out to be a useful tool for the implementation of an uncertainty analysis within the scope of environmental flows in water management and allowed the simulation of the impacts of several water resource development scenarios in the study site.

Bounds for the probability distribution function of the linear ACD process

This paper derives both lower and upper bounds for the probability distribution function of stationary ACD(p, q) processes. For the purpose of illustration, I specialize the results to the main parent distributions in duration analysis. Simulations show that the lower bound is much tighter than the upper bound.

Integral representation with convex capacities that are squeeze of (additive) probability measures

In this paper I will investigate the conditions under which a convex capacity (or a non-additive probability which exhibts uncertainty aversion) can be represented as a squeeze of a(n) (additive) probability measure associate to an uncertainty aversion function. Then I will present two alternatives forrnulations of the Choquet integral (and I will extend these forrnulations to the Choquet expected utility) in a parametric approach that will enable me to do comparative static exercises over the uncertainty aversion function in an easy way.

Assessment of the ergonomic design of diagnostic ultrasound transducers through wrist movements and subjective evaluation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Impacto urbano ocasionado por empreendimentos da construção civil no entorno da zona de proteção ambiental (zpa-6), Vila de Ponta Negra, Natal/RN

The process of urbanization in recent decades has generated considerable seriousness of problems relating to the use and occupation physical environment of cities. The concentration of population, economic activities and technological standards have reinforced an existing urban environment highly degraded as a consequence of the development style that leads to the predatory use of natural resources. In this context, cities as centers of production and consumption, have the most serious problems of environmental degradation. This study investigated the impacts of the municipal building projects to large-scale vertical in the town of Vila de Ponta Negra, Natal-RN, given the proximity to the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and considering its environmental importance , scenic, landscape and tourism for the city of Natal-RN. The fragility of the licensing process and the failure of the assumptions in the analysis, objective and subjective, for the granting of environmental permits for the building construction projects, specifically those set out in the surroundings of the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and fundamental importance of landscape and tourism for the city of Natal, has aroused the concern of local people in and of itself the Government, faced with the probable impacts that will affect greatly the Vila de Ponta Negra. The methodology used to achieve the intended objectives will be the literature review, questionnaire to the surrounding population and the Government, as well as findings on the spot, through the photographic record. The beneficiaries of the license, if the entrepreneurs, have been affected because of the granting of licensing act of investing large amount of capital in the works. Additionally, with distrust of the population, since they are to discredit the public system of environmental management have guessed by the probability of imbalance to the environment and structural damage to the Vila de Ponta Negra, where such failure to support energy, lack of regular supply of water , lack of sanitation and access roads sufficient for the flow of motor vehicles in these areas, among other factors. Thus, this work will contribute to the diagnosis and solutions to the problem in question, so that the Government will effectively fulfill its social management of ecologically balanced environment of continuing urban development in Natal, Brazil

Avaliação dos processos de seleção utilizados nos programas de fomento a inovação nas micro e pequenas empresas da fundação de amparo à pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte

Technological innovation promotes the generation of economic value by creating a new product, process or organizational management model, being classified as dynamic and multidimensional. Government intervention has the role of acting through government grant programs to foster the integration of innovative processes in small companies, due to the high costs and risks of development, strengthening the country`s economy in this phase. The distribution of this grant is determined by criteria, based especially in subjective judgments, which are based on the beliefs and perceptions about the technological opportunities and market actors involved in the process, being very difficult to measure the probability of success of the project under evaluation. This study aims to identify the most relevant selection criteria that must be inserted in grants programs at Rio Grande do Norte executed by Fundação de Pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte (FAPERN). Initially, there was a systematization of 18 countries, covering 41 programs in foreign countries and 29 in Brazil. Based on the data collected, we conducted one survey containing four programs of FAPERN (INOVA I, INOVA II , INOVA III and INOVA IV), covering 44 companies and analyzing their responses according to the Likert scale , obtaining the degree of importance given by the respondent to each of the criteria in the questionnaire . As a result, drew up a proposal for new criteria to be used in the next FAPERN´s grants, containing 13 new criteria. It is expected, therefore, to contribute to a better spending of public funds invested in companies subsidized in Brazil

Inconsistencies of a purported probability current in the Duffin-Kemmer-Petiau theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Portuguese version of the patient-generated subjective global assessment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)