Ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas con condición final y soluciones de viscosidad de EDPS semilineales de segundo orden

El objetivo de este documento es recopilar algunos resultados clasicos sobre existencia y unicidad ´ de soluciones de ecuaciones diferenciales estocasticas (EDEs) con condici ´ on final (en ingl ´ es´ Backward stochastic differential equations) con particular enfasis en el caso de coeficientes mon ´ otonos, y su cone- ´ xion con soluciones de viscosidad de sistemas de ecuaciones diferenciales parciales (EDPs) parab ´ olicas ´ y el´ıpticas semilineales de segundo orden.

A model for exchange rates with crawling bands: an application to the Colombian peso

This paper builds upon previous research on currency bands, and provides a model for the Colombian peso. Stochastic differential equations are combined with information related to the Colombian currency band to estimate competing models of the behaviour of the Colombian peso within the limits of the currency band. The resulting moments of the density function for the simulated returns describe adequately most of the characteristics of the sample returns data. The factor included to account for the intra-marginal intervention performed to drive the rate towards the Central Parity accounts only for 6.5% of the daily change, which supports the argument that intervention, if performed by the Central Bank, it is not directed to push the currency towards the limits. Moreover, the credibility of the Colombian Central Bank, Banco de la República’s ability to defend the band seems low.

Quasi-sure existence of Gaussian rough paths and large deviation principles for capacities

We construct a quasi-sure version (in the sense of Malliavin) of geometric rough paths associated with a Gaussian process with long-time memory. As an application we establish a large deviation principle (LDP) for capacities for such Gaussian rough paths. Together with Lyons' universal limit theorem, our results yield immediately the corresponding results for pathwise solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by such Gaussian process in the sense of rough paths. Moreover, our LDP result implies the result of Yoshida on the LDP for capacities over the abstract Wiener space associated with such Gaussian process.

Um método de linearização local com passo adaptativo para solução numérica de equações diferenciais estocásticas com ruído aditivo

Neste trabalho apresentamos um novo método numérico com passo adaptativo baseado na abordagem de linearização local, para a integração de equações diferenciais estocásticas com ruído aditivo. Propomos, também, um esquema computacional que permite a implementação eficiente deste método, adaptando adequadamente o algorítimo de Padé com a estratégia “scaling-squaring” para o cálculo das exponenciais de matrizes envolvidas. Antes de introduzirmos a construção deste método, apresentaremos de forma breve o que são equações diferenciais estocásticas, a matemática que as fundamenta, a sua relevância para a modelagem dos mais diversos fenômenos, e a importância da utilização de métodos numéricos para avaliar tais equações. Também é feito um breve estudo sobre estabilidade numérica. Com isto, pretendemos introduzir as bases necessárias para a construção do novo método/esquema. Ao final, vários experimentos numéricos são realizados para mostrar, de forma prática, a eficácia do método proposto, e compará-lo com outros métodos usualmente utilizados.

Noise and ultraviolet divergences in the dynamics of the chiral condensate in QCD

The time evolution of the matter produced in high energy heavy-ion collisions seems to be well described by relativistic viscous hydrodynamics. In addition to the hydrodynamic degrees of freedom related to energy-momentum conservation, degrees of freedom associated with order parameters of broken continuous symmetries must be considered because they are all coupled to each other. of particular interest is the coupling of degrees of freedom associated with the chiral symmetry of QCD. Quantum and thermal fluctuations of the chiral fields act as noise sources in the classical equations of motion, turning them into stochastic differential equations in the form of Ginzburg-Landau-Langevin (GLL) equations. Analytic solutions of GLL equations are attainable only in very special circumstances and extensive numerical simulations are necessary, usually by discretizing the equations on a spatial lattice. However, a not much appreciated issue in the numerical simulations of GLL equations is that ultraviolet divergences in the form of lattice-spacing dependence plague the solutions. The divergences are related to the well-known Rayleigh-Jeans catastrophe in classical field theory. In the present communication we present a systematic lattice renormalization method to control the catastrophe. We discuss the implementation of the method for a GLL equation derived in the context of a model for the QCD chiral phase transition and consider the nonequilibrium evolution of the chiral condensate during the hydrodynamic flow of the quark-gluon plasma.

Jarrow-Yildirim model for inflation: theory and applications

This thesis deals with inflation theory, focussing on the model of Jarrow & Yildirim, which is nowadays used when pricing inflation derivatives. After recalling main results about short and forward interest rate models, the dynamics of the main components of the market are derived. Then the most important inflation-indexed derivatives are explained (zero coupon swap, year-on-year, cap and floor), and their pricing proceeding is shown step by step. Calibration is explained and performed with a common method and an heuristic and non standard one. The model is enriched with credit risk, too, which allows to take into account the possibility of bankrupt of the counterparty of a contract. In this context, the general method of pricing is derived, with the introduction of defaultable zero-coupon bonds, and the Monte Carlo method is treated in detailed and used to price a concrete example of contract. Appendixes: A: martingale measures, Girsanov's theorem and the change of numeraire. B: some aspects of the theory of Stochastic Differential Equations; in particular, the solution for linear EDSs, and the Feynman-Kac Theorem, which shows the connection between EDSs and Partial Differential Equations. C: some useful results about normal distribution.

Quantum nondemolition measurement of Fock states of mesoscopic mechanical oscillators

We investigate a scheme that makes a quantum nondemolition (QND) measurement of the excitation level of a mesoscopic mechanical oscillator by utilizing the anharmonic coupling between two beam bending modes. The nonlinear coupling between the two modes shifts the resonant frequency of the readout oscillator in proportion to the excitation level of the system oscillator. This frequency shift may be detected as a phase shift of the readout oscillation when driven on resonance. We derive an equation for the reduced density matrix of the system oscillator, and use this to study the conditions under which discrete jumps in the excitation level occur. The appearance of jumps in the actual quantity measured is also studied using the method of quantum trajectories. We consider the feasibility of the scheme for experimentally accessible parameters.

A note on the Balanced method

Recently the Balanced method was introduced as a class of quasi-implicit methods for solving stiff stochastic differential equations. We examine asymptotic and mean-square stability for several implementations of the Balanced method and give a generalized result for the mean-square stability region of any Balanced method. We also investigate the optimal implementation of the Balanced method with respect to strong convergence.

Three-body recombination of ultracold Bose gases using the truncated Wigner method

We apply the truncated Wigner method to the process of three-body recombination in ultracold Bose gases. We find that within the validity regime of the Wigner truncation for two-body scattering, three-body recombination can be treated using a set of coupled stochastic differential equations that include diffusion terms, and can be simulated using known numerical methods. As an example we investigate the behavior of a simple homogeneous Bose gas, finding a very slight increase of the loss rate compared to that obtained by using the standard method.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Modelos estocásticos de crescimento individual e desenvolvimento de software de estimação e previsão

Os modelos de crescimento individual são geralmente adaptações de modelos de crescimento de populações. Inicialmente estes modelos eram apenas determinísticos, isto é, não incorporavam as flutuações aleatórias do ambiente. Com o desenvolvimento da teoria do cálculo estocástico podemos adicionar um termo estocástico, que representa a aleatoriedade ambiental que influencia o processo em estudo. Actualmente, o estudo do crescimento individual em ambiente aleatório é cada vez mais importante, não apenas pela vertente financeira, mas também devido às suas aplicações nas áreas da saúde e da pecuária, entre outras. Problemas como o ajustamento de modelos de crescimento individual, estimação de parâmetros e previsão de tamanhos futuros são tratados neste trabalho. São apresentadas novas aplicações do modelo estocástico monomolecular generalizado e um novo software de aplicação deste e de outros modelos. ABSTRACT: Individual growth models are usually adaptations of growth population models. Initially these models were only deterministic, that is, they did not incorporate the random fluctuations of the environment. With the development of the theory of stochastic calculus, we can add a stochastic term that represents the random environmental influences in the process under study. Currently, the study of individual growth in a random environment is increasingly important, not only by the financial scope but also because of its applications in health care and livestock production, among others. Problems such as adjustment of an individual growth model, estimation of parameters and prediction of future sizes are treated in this work. New applications of the generalized stochastic monomolecular model and a new software applied to this and other models are presented.

On the Wick product and Wong-Zakai approximations.

This thesis is a compilation of 6 papers that the author has written together with Alberto Lanconelli (chapters 3, 5 and 8) and Hyun-Jung Kim (ch 7). The logic thread that link all these chapters together is the interest to analyze and approximate the solutions of certain stochastic differential equations using the so called Wick product as the basic tool. In the first chapter we present arguably the most important achievement of this thesis; namely the generalization to multiple dimensions of a Wick-Wong-Zakai approximation theorem proposed by Hu and Oksendal. By exploiting the relationship between the Wick product and the Malliavin derivative we propose an original reduction method which allows us to approximate semi-linear systems of stochastic differential equations of the Itô type. Furthermore in chapter 4 we present a non-trivial extension of the aforementioned results to the case in which the system of stochastic differential equations are driven by a multi-dimensional fraction Brownian motion with Hurst parameter bigger than 1/2. In chapter 5 we employ our approach and present a “short time” approximation for the solution of the Zakai equation from non-linear filtering theory and provide an estimation of the speed of convergence. In chapters 6 and 7 we study some properties of the unique mild solution for the Stochastic Heat Equation driven by spatial white noise of the Wick-Skorohod type. In particular by means of our reduction method we obtain an alternative derivation of the Feynman-Kac representation for the solution, we find its optimal Hölder regularity in time and space and present a Feynman-Kac-type closed form for its spatial derivative. Chapter 8 treats a somewhat different topic; in particular we investigate some probabilistic aspects of the unique global strong solution of a two dimensional system of semi-linear stochastic differential equations describing a predator-prey model perturbed by Gaussian noise.

Correlation times in stochastic equations with delayed feedback and multiplicative noise

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stochastic Solution of a KPP-Type Nonlinear Fractional Differential Equation

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 76M35, 82B31