Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

Avaliação da monitorização diária da proteína C-Reativa no doente crítico

RESUMO: O objectivo desta Tese de Doutoramento foi estudar o valor da Proteína CReactiva(PCR) como marcador de infecção e sepsis. Por definição, um marcador da infecção não está presente se o doente não está infectado, deve aparecer concomitantemente ou idealmente preceder a instalação da infecção, deve desaparecer com a instituição de terapêutica antimicrobiana adequada e permanecer elevado se a infecção for refractária ao tratamento. Do ponto de vista biológico, a PCR é o protótipo das proteínas de fase aguda, com uma marcada elevação da sua concentração sérica em resposta a diversos estímulos inflamatórios em particular infecções bacterianas. A sua concentração sérica depende apenas da intensidade do estímulo e da velocidade de síntese hepática, não sendo influenciada por nenhum factor ou tratamento a não ser que este tenha influência directa sobre o estímulo desencadeante, o que a torna um marcador de infecção com grande potencial. Nesta Tese comparou-se a PCR com marcadores clássicos de infecção, temperatura e contagem leucocitária, em diversas situações clínicas analisando doentes com infecções documentadas e doentes controlos, sem infecção. Globalmente os resultados dos trabalhos desta Tese mostram que a PCR é um bom marcador de infecção de acordo com a definição previamente apresentada. Em conjunto com a restante avaliação clínica e laboratorial, a monitorização diária da PCR nos doentes sem infecção mostrou ser útil como sentinela da infecção, isto é, apresenta valores baixos nos doentes sem infecção e sobe precocemente nos doentes que desenvolvem uma infecção. Nos doentes com infecção documentada revelou um ser bom marcador de resposta à terapêutica e evolução clínica, diminuindo naqueles que melhoravam e persistindo elevada nos que tinham mau prognóstico, bem assim como identificar diferentes perfis evolutivos. Em suma, a monitorização diária da PCR mostrou utilidade ao longo de todo o internamento na Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos, quer na presença quer na ausência de infecção. Deste todo, a monitorização diária da PCR pode a possibilitar uma utilização mais racional e judiciosa da terapêutica antimicrobiana, contribuindo dessa forma para uma diminuição da toxicidade e da pressão antibiótica, menor risco de emergência de resistências e finalmente diminuição dos custos. Uma vez que, os doentes internados nas Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos apresentam as mesmas doenças que os restantes doentes admitidos no hospital apenas se distinguindo pela sua maior gravidade, poder-se-á extrapolar que a PCR também é potencialmente um bom marcador de infecção nestes doentes. ----------------ABSTRACT: The aim of this PhD Thesis was to assess the value of C-Reactive Protein (CRP) as a marker of infection and sepsis. A marker of infection should be absent in a non-infected patient, should increase alongside or ideally precede the development of an infection, and finally should assess the therapeutic response, that is to say decrease or even disappear with adequate antimicrobial therapy or on the opposite remain elevated if the infection is refractory to the prescribed treatment. The biology of CRP makes it the prototype of acute phase proteins, with marked and sharp elevations of its serum concentration in response to several inflammatory stimulus in particular bacterial infections. Besides, CRP level depends only of the intensity of the stimulus and the rate of hepatic synthesis. Its concentration is not modified by any therapy or intervention. Only those interventions affecting the inflammatory process responsible for the acute phase reaction can change the CRP level. These properties make CRP a potentially good marker of infection. In this Thesis the value of CRP was studied in comparison to traditional markers of infection, like temperature and white cell count, in different clinical situations analysing patients with documented infections and a control group without infection. The aggregated results of the analysis presented in this Thesis illustrate that CRP could be used as a marker of infection. In conjunction with other clinical and laboratory manifestations of sepsis, daily CRP measurement in patients without infection was useful in prediction of infection as its concentration remains low in patients without infection whereas if an infection appears its levels raise markedly. In addition, in patients with documented infections CRP was useful as a marker of therapeutic response and follow-up, with marked decreases in patients with good outcome and remaining elevated in those with poor prognosis, as well as the recognition of different patterns of evolution. In summary, daily CRP measurement was helpful in critical ill patients along the entire Intensive Care Unit stay, both in the presence and in the absence of infection. As a result, daily CRP measurement can assure a better and more rational use of antibiotics and consequently contribute to a decrease in the antibiotic toxicity and demand, reducing the risks of emergence of resistant strains aas well as costs. Provided that patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit presented the same clinical diagnosis as those admitted to the wards but with higher severity, one can speculate that CRP is also a potentially good marker of infection in these of patients.

Spraying food sources with pyrethroid to control peridomestic triatomines

Introduction We attempted to supplement traditional insecticide spraying by treating peridomiciliar food sources with a powder formulation. Methods Two groups of houses were treated with deltamethrin suspension concentrate (SC), one of which had its primary peridomestic food sources treated with deltamethrin 2P. Results Triatoma brasiliensis was the most commonly captured triatomine. Birds, dogs and rodents were the major food sources identified by the precipitin reaction; 554 domestic animals received powder treatment. A sharp reduction in infestation rates was observed in the two groups up to 360 days after spraying. Conclusion The combination SC + 2P did not improve the control of triatomines.

Archaeological Remains Accounting for the Presence and Exploitation of the North Atlantic Right Whale Eubalaena glacialis on the Portuguese Coast (Peniche, West Iberia), 16th to 17th Century

The former occurrence of the North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis on the Portuguese coast may be inferred from the historical range of that species in Europe and in NW Africa. It is generally accepted that it was the main prey of coastal whaling in the Middle Ages and in the pre-modern period, but this assumption still needs firming up based on biological and archaeological evidence. We describe the skeletal remains of right whales excavated at Peniche in 2001-2002, in association with archaeological artefacts. The whale bones were covered by sandy sediments on the old seashore and they have been tentatively dated around the 16th to 17th centuries. This study contributes material evidence to the former occurrence of E. glacialis in Portugal (West Iberia). Some whale bones show unequivocal man-made scars. These are associated to wounds from instruments with a sharp-cutting blade. This evidence for past human interaction may suggest that whaling for that species was active at Peniche around the early 17th century.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Ion-beam sources based on superionic solid electrolytes

An ion emitter consisting of a sharp silver tip covered in RbAg4I5 solid electrolyte film has been developed and studied. An accelerating potential is applied and Ag+ ions are emitted from the tip’s apex by field evaporation. The emitted ions are collected by a Faraday cup, producing a current on the pico/nanoampere level which is read by an electrometer. The tips were produced mechanically by sandpaper polishing. The sharpest tip produced had a 2:4 m apex radius. Two deposition methods were studied: thermal vacuum and pulsed laser deposition. The best tip produced a peak current value of 96nA at 180oC, and a quasi-stable 4nA emission current at 160oC, both using an extraction potential of 10kV . The emission dependence on time, temperature and accelerating potential has been studied. Deposited films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), profilometry, optical and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy (SIMS) measurements. Several ion emitters were developed, the latter ones were all able to maintain stable high ion emissions for long periods of time. This investigation was a continuation of an ongoing project backed by the European Space Agency, with the objective of making a proof of concept of this kind of ion emitter with potential application on ion thrusters for orbiting satellites. Going forward, it would be interesting to make a finer analysis of the electrolyte’s conductivity at high temperatures, explore Wien Effect-based emission and to further develop a multi-tip ion emitter prototype.

Surface plasmon resonance-coupled photoluminescence and resistive switching behavior of pulsed laser-deposited Ag:SiC nanocermet thin films

In this study, Ag:SiC nanocermets were prepared via rapid thermal annealing (RTA) of pulsed laser-deposited SiC/Ag/SiC trilayers grown on Si substrate. Atomic force microscope images show that silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) are formed after RTA, and the size of NPs increases with increasing Ag deposition time (t Ag). Sharp dip observed in the reflectance spectra confirmed the existence of Ag surface plasmons (SPs). The infrared transmission spectra showed an intense and broad absorption band around 780–800 cm−1 that can be assigned to Si-C stretching vibration mode. Influence of t Ag on the spectral characteristics of SP-enhanced photoluminescence (PL) and electrical properties of silicon carbide (SiC) films has been investigated. The maximum PL enhancement by 5.5 times for Ag:SiC nanocermets is achieved when t Ag ≈ 50 s. This enhancement is due to the strong resonant coupling between SiC and the SP oscillations of the Ag NPs. Presence of Ag NPs in SiC also induces a forming-free resistive switching with switching ratio of 2 × 10−2. The analysis of I–V curves demonstrates that the trap-controlled space-charge-limited conduction with filamentary model is the governing mechanism for the resistive switching in nanocerment thin films.

Rapid assessment of fruit-color selection by birds using artificial fruits at local scale in Central Amazonia

Modeling clays have been used in several ecological experiments and have proved to be an important tool to variables control. The objective of our study was to determine if fruit color in isolated and grouped displays influences the fruit selection by birds in the field using artificial fruits. Data were collected in six plots distributed homogeneously in 3 km long trails with a minimum distance of 0.5 km. We used a paired experimental design to establish our experiments, so that all treatments were available to the local bird community in each plot. Overall, red was more pecked than brown and white. Isolated red and brown displays were significantly more pecked than others display. Even though our study was conducted in small spatial scales, artificial fruits appeared to be efficient in register fruit consumption attempts by bird. Although inconclusive about selective forces that sharp the dynamics of fruit color polymorphisms and choice by frugivorous birds, our findings corroborate recent studies wherein birds showed preferences by high- over low-contrast fruit signals.

Structural, mechanical and piezoelectric properties of polycrystalline AlN films sputtered on titanium bottom electrodes

Polycrystalline AlN coatings deposited on Ti-electrodes films were sputtered by using nitrogen both as reactive gas and sputtering gas, in order to obtain high purity coatings with appropriate properties to be further integrated into wear resistance coatings as a piezoelectric monitoring wear sensor. The chemical composition, the structure and the morphology of the films were investigated by X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy techniques. These measurements show the formation of highly (101), (102) and (103) oriented AlN films with good piezoelectric and mechanical properties suitable for applications in electronic devices. Through the use of lower nitrogen flow a densification of the AlN coating occurs in the microstructure, with an improvement of the crystallinity along with the increase of the hardness. Thermal stability of aluminum nitride coatings at high temperature was also examined. It was found an improvement of the piezoelectric properties of the highly (10x) oriented AlN films which became c-axis (002) oriented after annealing. The mechanical behavior after heat treatment shows an important enhancement of the surface hardness and Young’s modulus, which decrease rapidly with the increase of the indentation depth until approach constant values close to the substrate properties after annealing. Thus, thermal annealing energy promotes not only the rearrangement of Al–N network, but also the occurrence of a nitriding process of unsaturated Al atoms which cause a surface hardening of the film.

Envelhecimento, memória e estímulo cognitivo

Neste artigo apresentamos uma breve revisão da literatura sobre o papel da memória no processo de envelhecimento e a deterioração que esta sofre em caso de demência, por exemplo de Alzheimer. Expomos ainda um ensaio/programa de treino cognitivo para estimular/reabilitar a memória. O aumento acentuado da esperança de vida, associado à baixa natalidade que se vem observando na maioria dos países ocidentais, poderá fazer com que as manifestações psicopatológicas da terceira idade se tornem bastante incidentes. Torna-se portanto indispensável que o envelhecimento decorra de forma natural, saudável, simplificando o funcionamento do organismo e libertando-o de problemas indesejáveis. Com o presente artigo procuramos alertar a comunidade para o tema do envelhecimento, da consequente diminuição de capacidades cognitivas, funcionais e executivas, fazendo um especial enfoque à memória.

Atividade fotossintética do bago de uva (Vitis vinifera, cv. Alvarinho) ao longo do desenvolvimento dos cachos em diferentes microambientes de luz

Dissertação de mestrado em Biologia Molecular, Biotecnologia e Bioempreendedorismo em Plantas

Influence of the hip joint modeling approaches on the kinematics of human gait

The influence of the hip joint formulation on the kinematic response of the model of human gait is investigated throughout this work. To accomplish this goal, the fundamental issues of the modeling process of a planar hip joint under the framework of multibody systems are revisited. In particular, the formulations for the ideal, dry, and lubricated revolute joints are described and utilized for the interaction of femur head inside acetabulum or the hip bone. In this process, the main kinematic and dynamic aspects of hip joints are analyzed. In a simple manner, the forces that are generated during human gait, for both dry and lubricated hip joint models, are computed in terms of the system’s state variables and subsequently introduced into the dynamics equations of motion of the multibody system as external generalized forces. Moreover, a human multibody model is considered, which incorporates the different approaches for the hip articulation, namely ideal joint, dry, and lubricated models. Finally, several computational simulations based on different approaches are performed, and the main results presented and compared to identify differences among the methodologies and procedures adopted in this work. The input conditions to the models correspond to the experimental data capture from an adult male during normal gait. In general, the obtained results in terms of positions do not differ significantly when the different hip joint models are considered. In sharp contrast, the velocity and acceleration plotted vary significantly. The effect of the hip joint modeling approach is clearly measurable and visible in terms of peaks and oscillations of the velocities and accelerations. In general, with the dry hip model, intra-joint force peaks can be observed, which can be associated with the multiple impacts between the femur head and the cup. In turn, when the lubricant is present, the system’s response tends to be smoother due to the damping effects of the synovial fluid.

Study of the electrical behavior of nanostructured Ti–Ag thin films, prepared by glancing angle deposition

Aiming at biosignal acquisition for bioelectrodes application, Ti-Ag thin films were produced by GLAD, in order to tailor their electromechanical properties. The electrical behaviour of the sculptured Ti-Ag thin films was studied with increasing annealing temperatures. The results revealed a good correlation with the set of morphological features displayed. With the increase of the vapour flux angle, a more defined structure was obtained, as well as a more porous morphology, which increased the electrical resistivity of the coatings. An important point consists in the recrystallization of Ti-Ag intermetallic phases due to the temperature increase (between 558 K and 773 K), which resulted in a sharp decrease of the electrical resistivity values.

Aproveitamento de energia em sistemas de abastecimento de água

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Varões entrançados de material compósito com capacidade de monitorização

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil