The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/11, September 2013

Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

The role of large woody debris and riparian forest in channel avulsion in the Carbon River, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

A specific type of natural log jam in the upper alluvial reach of the Carbon River was found to influence secondary channel avulsion, causing flooding hazards to the adjacent Carbon River Road in the northwest quadrant of Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. The fence-like natural log jam was characterized by large woody debris buttressed horizontally against standing riparian trees (i.e. ìfence railsî and ìfence postî). The objectives of this report are two-fold. First, physical characteristics and spatial distribution were documented to determine the geomorphic controls on the fence-like log jams. Second, the function and timing of the natural log jam in relation to channel avulsion was determined to provide insight into flooding hazards along the Carbon River Road. The fence-like log jams are most abundant in the upper reaches of the Carbon River between 3.0 and 5.5 kilometers from the Carbon Glacier terminus, where longitudinal gradient significantly decreases from about 0.06 to 0.03. Sediment impoundment can occur directly upstream of the fence-like log jam, creating vertical bed elevation difference as high as 1.32 meters, and can form during low magnitude, high frequency flood event (3.5-year recurrence interval). In some locations, headcuts and widening of secondary channel were observed directly to the side of the log jams, suggesting its role in facilitating secondary channel avulsions. Areas along the Carbon River Road more prone to damages from avulsion hazards were identified by coupling locations of the log jams and Relative Water Surface Elevation map created using the 1-meter 2012 Light Detection and Ranging Digital Elevation Map. Ultimately, the results of this report may provide insight to flooding hazards along the Carbon River Road from log jam-facilitated channel avulsion.

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene strata of the Pamplona Basin and surrounding areas (Navarre, western Pyrenees)

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene (Bartonian and Priabonian) sedimentary succession of the Pamplona Basin are described. This succession was accumulated in the western part of the South Pyrenean peripheral foreland basin and extends from deep-marine turbiditic (Ezkaba Sandstone Formation) to deltaic (Pamplona Marl, Ardanatz Sandstone and Ilundain Marl formations) and marginal marine deposits (Gendulain Formation). The micropalaeontological content is high. It is dominated by foraminifera, and common ostracods and other microfossils are also present. The fossil ichnoasssemblages include at least 23 ichnogenera and 28 ichnospecies indicative of Nereites, Cruziana, Glossifungites and ?Scoyenia-Mermia ichnofacies. Body macrofossils of 78 taxa corresponding to macroforaminifera, sponges, corals, bryozoans, brachiopods, annelids, molluscs, arthropods, echinoderms and vertebrates have been identified. Both the number of ichnotaxa and of species (e. g. bryozoans, molluscs and condrichthyans) may be considerably higher. Body fossil assemblages are comparable to those from the Eocene of the Nord Pyrenean area (Basque Coast), and also to those from the Eocene of the west-central and eastern part of South Pyrenean area (Aragon and Catalonia). At the European scale, the molluscs assemblages seem endemic from the Pyrenean area, although several Tethyan (Italy and Alps) and Northern elements (Paris basin and Normandy) have been recorded. Palaeontological data of studied sedimentary units fit well with the shallowing process that throughout the middle and late Eocene occurs in the area, according to the sedimentological and stratigraphical data.

Upper-Pleistocene terrace deposits in Mediterranean climate: geomorphological and source-rock control on mineral and geochemical signatures (Betic Cordillera, SE Spain)

Mineral and chemical composition of alluvial Upper-Pleistocene deposits from the Alto Guadalquivir Basin (SE Spain) were studied as a tool to identify sedimentary and geomorphological processes controlling its formation. Sediments located upstream, in the north-eastern sector of the basin, are rich in dolomite, illite, MgO and KB2BO. Downstream, sediments at the sequence base are enriched in calcite, smectite and CaO, whereas the upper sediments have similar features to those from upstream. Elevated rare-earth elements (REE) values can be related to low carbonate content in the sediments and the increase of silicate material produced and concentrated during soil formation processes in the neighbouring source areas. Two mineralogical and geochemical signatures related to different sediment source areas were identified. Basal levels were deposited during a predominantly erosive initial stage, and are mainly composed of calcite and smectite materials enriched in REE coming from Neogene marls and limestones. Then the deposition of the upper levels of the alluvial sequences, made of dolomite and illitic materials depleted in REE coming from the surrounding Sierra de Cazorla area took place during a less erosive later stage of the fluvial system. Such modification was responsible of the change in the mineralogical and geochemical composition of the alluvial sediments.

Preliminary results of the roman camp of La Cabeza del Cid (Hinojosa, Guadalajara, Spain)

The recent archaeological works in Hinojosa, allowed us to discover a camp from Roman republic period. It is located in the center of the Celtiberian area and its study could open interesting perspectives to study this historical period. This paper shows the results of its preliminary studies.

Los emigrantes en las áreas mineras y las ciudades de Hispania: religión, identidades y difusión cultural

En el presente artículo analizamos los desplazamientos de cultos indígenas hispanos desde distintas áreas de la Península Ibérica hacia los principales lugares de inmigración en Hispania: las áreas mineras y las ciudades. Proponemos que estos grupos de emigrantes rendían culto en su nueva residencia a las deidades que veneraban en sus regiones de procedencia como un medio de preservar su cohesión social y su identidad cultural. La dureza de la vida laboral en las áreas mineras reforzaba la necesidad de fortalecer los lazos culturales.

Molecular characterization of human T cell leukemia virus type 1 subtypes in a group of infected individuals diagnosed in Portugal and Spain

Over the past decade, Portugal and Spain received large numbers of immigrants from HTLV-1 endemic areas. Our aim was to investigate the diversity of subtypes circulating in these two countries and the introduction of new variants. We performed a molecular analysis of HTLV-1 strains in patients diagnosed since 1998. LTR and env proviral sequences from 26 individuals were analyzed to generate phylogenetic trees along with reference HTLV-1 subtypes from several geographic origins. Epidemiological and clinical data were recorded. Most subjects were immigrants (57.7%) from South America and Africa. All isolates belonged to the cosmopolitan A subtype. Most carried the transcontinental subgroup A, but five subjects carried subgroup D and one carried subgroup C, previously unreported in Europe. HTLV strains showed separate clusters linked to the patients' geographic origin. Although subjects with HTLV-1 infection tend not to be engaged in high-risk practices, silent dissemination of a broad diversity of HTLV-1 viruses may still occur.

Trammel net selectivity studies in the Algarve (southern Portugal), gulf of cadiz (Spain), Basque coutry (Spain) and cyclades islands (Greece)

Trammel net fisheries were studied in four areas: the Cantabrian Sea (Basque Country, Spain), the Algarve (Southern Portugal), the Gulf of Cádiz (Spain) and the Cyclades Islands (Greece). Surveys were carried out in order to identify trammel net métiers and to characterise the gear used. Trammel nets were among the most important gears used in the small-scale fisheries, with up to 9 different métiers identified in each area. The most important métiers in the Algarve and the Gulf of Cádiz were those for cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and soles (Solea senegalensis, Microchirus azevia, Synaptura lusitanica). In the Cantabrian Sea, sole (Solea vulgaris), shellfish (several species) and scorpion fish (Scorpaena spp.) métiers dominated while a variety of species where targeted in the multi-species trammel net fishery in the Cyclades. In each area, experimental trammel nets of six different types (combinations of 2 large mesh outer panel sizes and 3 small mesh outer panels) corresponding to the most common métier, were constructed and fishing trials carried out on a seasonal basis (4 seasons in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve and Cyclades and 2 in the Gulf of Cádiz) using chartered commercial fishing vessels. Overall, 271, 360, 185 and 185 km of trammel nets were fished in the experimental fishing trials in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve, Gulf of Cádiz and Cyclades Islands respectively.

Seven Ulmus minor clones tolerant to Ophiostoma novo-ulmi registered as forest reproductive material in Spain

The Spanish elm programme began in 1986 in response to the devastating impact of Dutch elm disease on natural elm stands and urban trees. Its main objectives were to conserve remaining genetic resources and select and breed tolerant native elm genotypes. After 27 years of work conducting susceptibility trials on thousands of elm genotypes, the first seven tolerant Ulmus minor trees are now being registered by the Spanish Environmental Administration. This paper presents the results of the susceptibility tests on these clones and their distinctive genetic, morphological and phenological features. In all susceptibility trials the commercial ?Sapporo Autumn Gold? clone, which is highly tolerant to O. novo-ulmi, was used as a control. The registered clones were named ?Ademuz?, ?Dehesa de la Villa?, ?Majadahonda?, ?Toledo?, ?Dehesa de Amaniel?, ?Retiro? and ?Fuente Umbría?. The most tolerant clone was ?Dehesa de Amaniel?, as its wilting values were below 5% during the two consecutive inoculation trials performed in Madrid. ?Fuente Umbría?, tested over four consecutive years in Guadalajara and Palencia, was the Spanish clone with the most reliable tolerance level to O. novo-ulmi. The ?Ademuz? and ?Majadahonda? clones had the highest ornamental scores and are promising trees for use in urban environments and tree breeding for ornamental quality. These two genotypes showed a later bud burst phenology than the other U. minor clones, demonstrating suitability to areas with late frost events. The Spanish programme aims to substantially increase the range of tolerant native elms through new selections and crossings to gain a better understanding of the genetic basis of resistance.

Estimating social carrying capacity in protected Mediterranean mountain areas. Methodological orientation

The concept of social carrying capacity, though opens to debate and critique, is a valuable tool that enhances the management of recreational use in protected natural areas. In this study, conducted in Sierra de las Nieves natural park (Spain), we first categorised the hikers making use of the park and then, from the profiles obtained, analysed their perception of crowding on the trails. This assessment was subsequently used to assess levels of user satisfaction and thus to determine the psychosocial carrying capacity of the park. The results obtained can be extrapolated to most of the Spanish natural parks in Mediterranean mountain areas, due to their comparable levels of visitor numbers and to the prevalence of recreational hiking use. The results suggest that management efforts should be directed toward relocating trails outside the core areas, such that user preferences may be satisfied while less impact is made on the areas of highest environmental value.

Risk factors associated with negative in-vivo diagnostic results in bovine tuberculosis-infected cattle in Spain

BACKGROUND Despite great effort and investment incurred over decades to control bovine tuberculosis (bTB), it is still one of the most important zoonotic diseases in many areas of the world. Test-and-slaughter strategies, the basis of most bTB eradication programs carried out worldwide, have demonstrated its usefulness in the control of the disease. However, in certain countries, eradication has not been achieved due in part to limitations of currently available diagnostic tests. In this study, results of in-vivo and post-mortem diagnostic tests performed on 3,614 animals from 152 bTB-infected cattle herds (beef, dairy, and bullfighting) detected in 2007-2010 in the region of Castilla y León, Spain, were analyzed to identify factors associated with positive bacteriological results in cattle that were non-reactors to the single intradermal tuberculin test, to the interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) assay, or to both tests applied in parallel (Test negative/Culture + animals, T-/C+). The association of individual factors (age, productive type, and number of herd-tests performed since the disclosure of the outbreak) with the bacteriology outcome (positive/negative) was analyzed using a mixed multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS The proportion of non-reactors with a positive post-mortem result ranged from 24.3% in the case of the SIT test to 12.9% (IFN-γ with 0.05 threshold) and 11.9% (95% CI 9.9-11.4%) using both tests in parallel. Older (>4.5 years) and bullfighting cattle were associated with increased odds of confirmed bTB infection by bacteriology, whereas dairy cattle showed a significantly lower risk. Ancillary use of IFN-γ assay reduced the proportion of T-/C + animals in high risk groups. CONCLUSIONS These results demonstrate the likelihood of positive bacteriological results in non-reactor cattle is influenced by individual epidemiological factors of tested animals. Increased surveillance on non-reactors with an increased probability of being false negative could be helpful to avoid bTB persistence, particularly in chronically infected herds. These findings may aid in the development of effective strategies for eradication of bTB in Spain.

Wild boar tuberculosis in Iberian Atlantic Spain: a different picture from Mediterranean habitats

BACKGROUND Infections with Mycobacterium bovis and closely related members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) are shared between livestock, wildlife and sporadically human beings. Wildlife reservoirs exist worldwide and can interfere with bovine tuberculosis (TB) eradication efforts. The Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) is a MTC maintenance host in Mediterranean Iberia (Spain and Portugal). However, few systematic studies in wild boar have been carried out in Atlantic regions. We describe the prevalence, distribution, pathology and epidemiology of MTC and other mycobacteria from wild boar in Atlantic Spain. A total of 2,067 wild boar were sampled between 2008 and 2012. RESULTS The results provide insight into the current status of wild boar as MTC and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) hosts in temperate regions of continental Europe. The main findings were a low TB prevalence (2.6%), a low proportion of MTC infected wild boar displaying generalized TB lesions (16.7%), and a higher proportion of MAC infections (4.5%). Molecular typing revealed epidemiological links between wild boar and domestic - cattle, sheep and goat - and other wildlife - Eurasian badger (Meles meles) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) - hosts. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that the likelihood of MTC excretion by wild boar in Atlantic habitats is much lower than in Mediterranean areas. However, wild boar provide a good indicator of MTC circulation and, given the current re-emergence of animal TB, similar large-scale surveys would be advisable in other Atlantic regions of continental Europe.

Effect of cattle on Salmonella carriage, diversity and antimicrobial resistance in free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa) in northeastern Spain

Salmonella is distributed worldwide and is a pathogen of economic and public health importance. As a multi-host pathogen with a long environmental persistence, it is a suitable model for the study of wildlife-livestock interactions. In this work, we aim to explore the spill-over of Salmonella between free-ranging wild boar and livestock in a protected natural area in NE Spain and the presence of antimicrobial resistance. Salmonella prevalence, serotypes and diversity were compared between wild boars, sympatric cattle and wild boars from cattle-free areas. The effect of age, sex, cattle presence and cattle herd size on Salmonella probability of infection in wild boars was explored by means of Generalized Linear Models and a model selection based on the Akaike's Information Criterion. Prevalence was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle (35.67%, CI 95% 28.19-43.70) than in wild boar from cattle-free areas (17.54%, CI 95% 8.74-29.91). Probability of a wild boar being a Salmonella carrier increased with cattle herd size but decreased with the host age. Serotypes Meleagridis, Anatum and Othmarschen were isolated concurrently from cattle and sympatric wild boars. Apart from serotypes shared with cattle, wild boars appear to have their own serotypes, which are also found in wild boars from cattle-free areas (Enteritidis, Mikawasima, 4:b:- and 35:r:z35). Serotype richness (diversity) was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle, but evenness was not altered by the introduction of serotypes from cattle. The finding of a S. Mbandaka strain resistant to sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin and chloramphenicol and a S. Enteritidis strain resistant to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in wild boars is cause for public health concern.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.