A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

'Online' geriatric assessment procedure for older adults referred for geriatric assessment during an acute care episode for consideration of reliability of triage decisions

Background Comprehensive geriatric assessment has been shown to improve patient outcomes, but the geriatricians who deliver it are in short-supply. A web-based method of comprehensive geriatric assessment has been developed with the potential to improve access to specialist geriatric expertise. The current study aims to test the reliability and safety of comprehensive geriatric assessment performed “online” in making geriatric triage decisions. It will also explore the accuracy of the procedure in identifying common geriatric syndromes, and its cost relative to conventional “live” consultations. Methods/Design The study population will consist of 270 acutely hospitalized patients referred for geriatric consultation at three sites. Paired assessments (live and online) will be conducted by independent, blinded geriatricians and the level of agreement examined. This will be compared with the level of agreement between two independent, blinded geriatricians each consulting with the patient in person (i.e. “live”). Agreement between the triage decision from live-live assessments and between the triage decision from live-online assessments will be calculated using kappa statistics. Agreement between the online and live detection of common geriatric syndromes will also be assessed using kappa statistics. Resource use data will be collected for online and live-live assessments to allow comparison between the two procedures. Discussion If the online approach is found to be less precise than live assessment, further analysis will seek to identify patient subgroups where disagreement is more likely. This may enable a protocol to be developed that avoids unsafe clinical decisions at a distance. Trial registration Trial registration number: ACTRN12611000936921

Reflections around artefacts : using a deliberative approach to teaching reflective practices in fashion studies

While requiring students to think reflectively is a desirable teaching goal, it is often fraught with complexity and is sometimes poorly implemented in higher education. In this paper, we describe an approach to academic reflective practices that fitted a design subject in fashion education and was perceived as effective in enhancing student learning outcomes. In many design-based disciplines, it is essential to evaluate, through a reflective lens, the quality of tangible design outcomes - referred to here as artefacts. Fashion studio based practice (unlike many other theory based disciplines)requires an artefact to be viewed in order to initiate the reflective process. This reflection is not solely limited to reflective writing; the reflection happens through sight, touch and other non-traditional approaches. Fashion students were asked to reflect before, during and after the development of an artefact. Through a variety of media, a review of the first garment prototype - called a Sample Review - occurred. The reflective practices of students during the Sample Review provided a valuable insight into their own learning, as well as a valid assessment indicator for the lecturer. It also mirrored industry practices for design evaluation. We believe that this deliberative approach, characterised by artefact-prompted reflection, has wide applicability across undergraduate courses in a variety of discipline areas.

The taxing effects of the advance pricing arrangement program: A review of APAs and their impact on stakeholders

The current transfer pricing rules contained in Australia’s taxation regime are designed to counter the underpayment of tax by businesses engaged in international related-party dealings. Currently, these transactions must take place at an arm’s length price, a requirement which is becoming increasingly difficult to demonstrate. This results in an increased risk of an audit by the Australian Taxation Office. If a taxpayer wishes to avoid the risk of an audit, and any ensuing penalties, there is one option: an advance pricing arrangement (‘APA’). An APA is an agreement whereby the future transfer pricing methodology to be used to determine the arm’s length price is agreed to by the taxpayer and the relevant tax authority or authorities. This article investigates the use of APAs as a solution to the problem of transfer pricing and considers their impact on stakeholders. It is argued that while APAs provide a valuable practical tool for multinational entities facing the challenges of the taxation of global trading under the current regime, they may not be a practical long term solution.

The traditional rationale of the arm’s length approach to transfer pricing : should the separate accounting model be maintained for modern multinational entities?

This article examines the current transfer pricing regime to consider whether it is a sound model to be applied to modern multinational entities. The arm's length price methodology is examined to enable a discussion of the arguments in favour of such a regime. The article then refutes these arguments concluding that, contrary to the very reason multinational entities exist, applying arm's length rules involves a legal fiction of imagining transactions between unrelated parties. Multinational entities exist to operate in a way that independent entities would not, which the arm's length rules fail to take into account. As such, there is clearly an air of artificiality in applying the arm's length standard. To demonstrate this artificiality with respect to modern multinational entities, multinational banks are used as an example. The article concluded that the separate entity paradigm adopted by the traditional transfer pricing regime is incongruous with the economic theory of modern multinational enterprises.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Reliability of clinical measurement for assessing spinal fusion: An experimental sheep study

Study Design. A sheep study designed to compare the accuracy of static radiographs, dynamic radiographs, and computed tomographic (CT) scans for the assessment of thoracolumbar facet joint fusion as determined by micro-CT scanning. Objective. To determine the accuracy and reliability of conventional imaging techniques in identifying the status of thoracolumbar (T13-L1) facet joint fusion in a sheep model. Summary of Background Data. Plain radiographs are commonly used to determine the integrity of surgical arthrodesis of the thoracolumbar spine. Many previous studies of fusion success have relied solely on postoperative assessment of plain radiographs, a technique lacking sensitivity for pseudarthrosis. CT may be a more reliable technique, but is less well characterized. Methods. Eleven adult sheep were randomized to either attempted arthrodesis using autogenous bone graft and internal fixation (n = 3) or intentional pseudarthrosis (IP) using oxidized cellulose and internal fixation (n = 8). After 6 months, facet joint fusion was assessed by independent observers, using (1) plain static radiography alone, (2) additional dynamic radiographs, and (3) additional reconstructed spiral CT imaging. These assessments were correlated with high-resolution micro-CT imaging to predict the utility of the conventional imaging techniques in the estimation of fusion success. Results. The capacity of plain radiography alone to correctly predict fusion or pseudarthrosis was 43% and was not improved using plain radiography and dynamic radiography with also a 43% accuracy. Adding assessment by reformatted CT imaging to the plain radiography techniques increased the capacity to predict fusion outcome to 86% correctly. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of static radiography were 0.33, 0.55, and 0.43, respectively, those of dynamic radiography were 0.46, 0.40, and 0.43, respectively, and those of radiography plus CT were 0.88, 0.85, and 0.86, respectively. Conclusion. CT-based evaluation correlated most closely with high-resolution micro-CT imaging. Neither plain static nor dynamic radiographs were able to predict fusion outcome accurately. © 2012 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

International transfer pricing : the Australian approach and lessons for Canada

In response to developments in international trade and an increased focus on international transfer-pricing issues, Canada’s minister of finance announced in the 1997 budget that the Department of Finance would undertake a review of the transfer-pricing provisions in the Income Tax Act. On September 11, 1997, the Department of Finance released draft transfer-pricing legislation and Revenue Canada released revised draft Information Circular 87-2R. The legislation was subsequently amended and included in Bill C-28, which received first reading on December 10, 1997. The new rules are intended to update Canada’s international transfer-pricing practices. In particular, they attempt to harmonize the standards in the Income Tax Act with the arm’s-length principle established in the OECD’s transfer pricing guidelines. The new rules also set out contemporaneous documentation requirements in respect of cross-border related-party transactions, facilitate administration of the law by Revenue Canada, and provide for a penalty where transfer prices do not comply with the arm’s-length principle. The Australian tax authorities have similarly reviewed and updated their transfer-pricing practices. Since 1992, the Australian commissioner of taxation has issued three rulings and seven draft rulings directly relating to international transfer pricing. These rulings outline the selection and application of transfer pricing methodologies, documentation requirements, and penalties for non-compliance. The Australian Taxation Office supports the use of advance pricing agreements (APAs) and has expanded its audit strategy by conducting transfer-pricing risk assessment reviews. This article presents a detailed review of Australia’s transfer-pricing policy and practices, which address essentially the same concerns as those at which the new Canadian rules are directed. This review provides a framework for comparison of the approaches adopted in the two jurisdictions. The author concludes that although these approaches differ in some respects, ultimately they produce a similar result. Both regimes set a clear standard to be met by multinational enterprises in establishing transfer prices. Both provide for audits and penalties in the event of noncompliance. And both offer the alternative of an APA as a means of avoiding transfer-pricing disputes with Australian and Canadian tax authorities.

Validity and reliability of instruments designed to measure factors influencing the overuse of antibiotics

Background: Antibiotic overuse is a global public health issue that is influenced by several factors. The degree and prevalence of antibiotic overuse is difficult to measure directly. A more practical approach, such as the use of a psycho-social measurement instrument, might allow for the observation and assessment of patterns of antibiotic use. Study objective: The aim of this paper is to review the nature, validity, and reliability of measurement scales designed to measure factors associated with antibiotic misuse/overuse. Design: This study is descriptive and includes a systematic integration of the measurement scales used in the literature to measure factors associated with antibiotic misuse/overuse. The review included 70 international scientific publications from 1992 to 2010. Main results: Studies have presented scales to measure antibiotic misuse. However, the workup of these instruments is often not mentioned, or the scales are used with only early-phase validation, such as content or face validity. Other studies have discussed the reliability of these scales. However, the full validation process has not been discussed in any of the reviewed measurement scales. Conclusion: A reliable, fully validated measurement scale must be developed to assess the factors associated with the overuse of antibiotics. Identifying these factors will help to minimize the misuse of antibiotics.

Realizing benefits from enterprise architecture : a measurement model

Enterprise architecture (EA) management has become an intensively discussed approach to manage enterprise transformations. Despite the popularity and potential of EA, both researchers and practitioners lament a lack of knowledge about the realization of benefits from EA. To determine the benefits from EA, we explore the various dimensions of EA benefit realization and report on the development of a validated and robust measurement instrument. In this paper, we test the reliability and construct validity of the EA benefit realization model (EABRM), which we have designed based on the DeLone & McLean IS success model and findings from exploratory interviews. A confirmatory factor analysis confirms the existence of an impact of five distinct and individually important dimensions on the benefits derived from EA: EA artefact quality, EA infrastructure quality, EA service quality, EA culture, and EA use. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the EA benefit realization model is an instrument that demonstrates strong reliability and validity.