Inflation, currency substitution and dollarization: The case of Argentina

This dissertation discusses the relationship between inflation, currency substitution and dollarization that has taken place in Argentina for the past several decades.^ First, it is shown that when consumers are able to hold only domestic monetary balances (without capital mobility) an increase in the rate of inflation will produce a balance of payments deficit. We then look at the same issue but with heterogeneous consumers, this heterogeneity being generated by non-proportional lump-sum transfers.^ Second, we discussed some necessary assumptions related to currency substitution models and concluded that there was no a-priori conclusion on whether currencies should be assumed to be "cooperant" or "non-cooperant" in utility. That is to say, whether individuals held different currencies together or one instead of the other.^ Third, we went into discussing the issue of currency substitution as being a constraint on governments' inflationary objectives rather than a choice of those governments to avoid hyperinflations. We showed that imperfect substitutability between currencies does not "reduce the scope for rational (hyper)inflationary processes" as it had been previously argued. It will ultimately depend on the parametrization used and not on the intrinsic characteristics of imperfect substitutability between currencies.^ We further showed that in Argentina, individuals have been able to endogenize the money supply by holding foreign monetary balances. We argued that the decision to hold foreign monetary balances by individuals is always a second best due to the trade-off between holding foreign monetary balances and consumption. For some levels of income, consumption, and foreign inflation, individuals would prefer to hold domestic monetary balances rather than foreign ones.^ We then modeled the distinction between dollarization and currency substitution. We concluded that although dollarization is necessary for currency substitution to take place, the decision to use foreign monetary balances for transactions purposes is largely independent from the dollarization process.^ Finally, we concluded that Argentina should not fully dollarize its economy because dollarization is always a second best to using a domestic currency. Further, we argued that a fixed exchange system would be better than a flexible exchange rate or a "crawling-peg" system because of the characteristics of the political system and the possibilities of "mass praetorianism" to develop, which is intricately linked to "populist" solutions. ^

Colombian society in the 1990s: Fragmentation, legitimacy, and efficiency

During the nineties, Colombia experienced a two-fold process of restructuring. First, the political system underwent a process of constitutional reform in order to strengthen the state and increase its legitimacy, surpass the exclusionary character of the political regime, and achieve greater equity in the distribution of social resources. Second, the economy made the transition from a Keynesian development strategy to a strategy of “opening” or liberalization and internationalization of the economy, in order to increase the economic efficiency by reducing the “size” of the state and its regulatory role. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the interplay and contradictions of economic and political factors in the restructuring of the Colombian politico-economic system. ^ The main finding of this dissertation is that the simultaneous adoption of a neoliberal economic strategy and of the Political Constitution of 1991, have had a contradictory relationship: while the “political opening” has produced favorable conditions for fostering programs of democratization and social integration, the “economic opening” has counteracted that possibility given that it implies a social exclusionary process. This tension has aggravated the problems of political and social integration that have traditionally characterized Colombian society. ^ This crucial tension has also been characteristic of Latin America in the nineties. However, it has been neglected and undertheorized in most of the democratization studies of American comparative politics. Most of them lack consideration of structural aspects. According to those studies, the cause of regime change is determined by the strategic elections of actors. Contrary to these approaches, I develop a structural perspective. I consider that social phenomena are partly determined by structural factors, and scientific research should assign them decisive importance, since a fundamental basis for social action and transformation is to be found in the dynamics of relationships between individuals and structures and the development of contradictions within structures. ^

Patronage and bribery in sixteenth-century Peru: The government of Viceroy Conde del Villar and the visita of Licentiate Alonso Fernandez de Bonilla

This dissertation deals with the nature of the political system in sixteenth-century colonial Spanish America through an analysis of the administration of Viceroy Fernando de Torres y Portugal, Conde del Villar, in Peru (1585–1590). The political conflicts surrounding his government and the accusations of bribery leveled against him and members of his household provide the documentation for a case study in a system in which prestige and authority were defined through a complex network of patronage and personal relationships with the Spanish monarch, the ultimate source of legitimate power. ^ This dissertation is conceptualized using categories presented in Max Weber's theory on the nature of political order and authority in the history of human societies and the definition of the patrimonial system as one in which the power of he king confers legitimacy and authority on the whole political structure. ^ The documentary base for this dissertation is an exceptionally detailed and complete record related to the official administrative review ( visita) ordered by Philip II in 1588 to assess the government of Viceroy Torres y Portugal. Additionally, letters as well as other primary and secondary sources are scattered in repositories on both sides of the Atlantic. ^ The study of this particular case offers an excellent opportunity to gain an understanding of a political order in which jurisdictional boundaries between institutions and authorities were not clearly defined. The legal system operating in the viceroyalty was subordinated to the personal decisions of the king, and order and equilibrium were maintained through the interaction of patronage networks that were reproduced at all levels of the colonial society. ^ The final charges against Viceroy Conde del Villar, as well as their impact on the political career of those involved in the accusations, reveal that situations today understood to constitute bribery had a different meaning in the context of a patrimonial order. ^

Democratic purgatory: The failure of democracy in Venezuela

This research provides an understanding of the conditions that presage the failure of consolidated democratic political regimes through constitutional processes. In seeking to answer the question of how democracy might fail through democratic means, this study has revealed a gap in the literature on democratization. Venezuela was selected as a heuristic case study to explain this phenomenon. Heuristic case studies place less emphasis on the more configurative or descriptive elements of the case itself, and instead see the case as a point of departure for the formulations of theoretical propositions. While in-case hypotheses are possible, heuristic case studies make it an explicit research plan to tease out mechanisms that exist in a particular case study that might survive in other situations. ^ This study demonstrates that the elements in society that act as direct participants in the establishment of a democratic political system are able to maintain their position in the new order largely through an expansion of their ability to meet popular demands through clientelistic arrangements. While these corporatist groups may serve to facilitate social mobilization during the establishment of democratic regimes, they do so only in so far as they can maintain social control of in-group membership without fully providing for representative democracy. Once these democratic institutions are consolidated as key parts of the democratic structure, these corporatist arrangements provide for a type of unstable democratic purgatory: democracy is not fully representative, yet it is not completely unresponsive to the demands of the electorate. ^ The condition of democratic purgatory produces a paradox whereby democracy can be undemocratic under certain conditions. The stability of these regimes allows for democratic consolidation, despite the undemocratic basis of legitimacy. While these regimes can undergo consolidation, ultimately, this condition is unstable: either these regimes must establish an endogenous basis of political legitimacy (one that is not simply a function of the corporatist/clientelistic political structure), or the democracy will suffer a qualitative decline that may result in a democratic breakdown. Furthermore, this study finds that the viability of any type of democratic regime rests upon its adaptability to ensure adequate representativeness. ^

Gender politics, women's rights and international norms in Lebanon

The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the reasons for the under-representation of women in politics in Lebanon, and the role of international norms of gender equality in bringing about change. For those questions, I examined the particular relevance of confessionalism arguing that a confessional social structure and political system empower patriarchal forms of organization with detrimental effects to women's political participation. This dissertation makes innovative contributions to two types of literature. First, literature on the barriers to women being elected into political office has put strong emphasis on electoral systems of representation, but has rarely addressed the way in which electoral systems that seek to ensure minority representation – such as the confessional system in Lebanon – operate to keep women out of politics. This study provides an important corrective to this literature by exploring a non-Western case and broadening theorizing on the issue. Second, constructivist literature in the field of International Relations has argued that international norms of gender equality – including gender quotas – have diffused throughout the 20th century. This research illustrates the mechanisms that counteract international diffusion, and adds to our understanding of how international norms are translated into domestic contexts.

Peru’s Shining Path: Recent Dynamics and Future Prospects

Although soundly defeated in the early to mid-1990s, Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) did not disappear. Over the past five years, it has reemerged in a substantially different form, with both a military and a political component. The organization, once again coordinated by jailed leader Abimael Guzmán Reynoso, has eschewed shorter-term military objectives in favor of a longer-term strategy of slowly rebuilding popular support and establishing a party within the Peruvian political system. In so doing, it has also moved from extreme Maoist ideological rigidity to a more pragmatic, though perhaps only tactical, approach. Financial support is derived once again from cocaine production and trafficking in the Upper Huallaga Valley (UHV). Although there may be some individual exceptions, Shining Path is not a narcoterrorist organization. At the same time, Sendero is still very small, in no way a threat to the Peruvian state, and divided. The Lima-based political organization and the military wing in the UHV continue to follow Guzmán‟s leadership, while the Apurímac-Ene Valleys (VRAE) group remains committed to the armed struggle. The Government of Peru (GOP) response to date, both military and civilian, has been inadequate. VRAE military operations are hampered by poor leadership, ill-trained troops, and an outdated strategy. VRAE development resources have been cut, and the long-promised paved road remains in the planning stage. Without significant GOP adjustments, Shining Path is likely to continue to grow.

The Basis of Support for Hugo Chávez: Measuring the Determinants of Presidential Job Approval in Venezuela

Since 1999, Venezuela has experienced a dramatic transformation of its political system with the coming to power of Hugo Chávez and his movement, known in Venezuela as Chavismo. Chávez has dismantled the previous political system and established neo-populist structures that rely on his personal appeal and the close collaboration of the armed forces. Chávez has relied heavily on significant support from the poor and those who felt economically and politically excluded by the “Punto Fijo system.” President Chávez has built an impressive record of electoral victories; winning every electoral contest except one since coming to power in 1999. He continues to receive relatively high levels of support among sectors of Venezuelan society. However, there is evidence of growing discontent with high crime rates, high levels of inflation, and significant corruption in the public administration. Using data from the AmericasBarometer surveys conducted in 2007, 2008 and 2010, this paper seeks to examine the basis of Chávez’s popular support. In general, the AmericasBarometer findings suggest that Venezuelans support for President Chávez is closely linked to the access to social programs and that as long as the government is able to fund these social programs or missions, particularly MERCAL and Barrio Adentro, it will possess an important tool to garner and sustain support for President Chávez. Our analysis, however, also indicates that evaluations of the national economic situation, more than crime or insecurity, are a key factor that could undermine support for the regime.

Beyond the Pay: Current Illicit Activities of the Armed Forces in Central America

The growth of criminal gangs and organized crime groups has created unprecedented challenges in Central America. Homicide rates are among the highest in the world, countries spend on average close to 10 percent of GDP to respond to the challenges of public insecurity, and the security forces are frequently overwhelmed and at times coopted by the criminal groups they are increasingly tasked to counter. With some 90 percent of the 700 metric tons of cocaine trafficked from South America to the United States passing through Central America, the lure of aiding illegal traffickers through provision of arms, intelligence, or simply withholding or delaying the use of force is enormous. These conditions raise the question: to what extent are militaries in Central America compromised by illicit ties to criminal groups? The study focuses on three cases: Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras. It finds that: Although illicit ties between the military and criminal groups have grown in the last decade, militaries in these countries are not yet “lost’ to criminal groups. Supplying criminal groups with light arms from military stocks is typical and on the rise, but still not common. In general the less exposed services, the navies and air forces, are the most reliable and effective ones in their roles in interdiction. Of the three countries in the study, the Honduran military is the most worrying because it is embedded in a context where civilian corruption is extremely common, state institutions are notoriously weak, and the political system remains polarized and lacks the popular legitimacy and political will needed to make necessary reforms. Overall, the armed forces in the three countries remain less compromised than civilian peers, particularly the police. However, in the worsening crime and insecurity context, there is a limited window of opportunity in which to introduce measures targeted toward the military, and such efforts can only succeed if opportunities for corruption in other sectors of the state, in particular in law enforcement and the justice system, are also addressed. Measures targeted toward the military should include: Enhanced material benefits and professional education opportunities that open doors for soldiers in promising legitimate careers once they leave military service. A clear system of rewards and punishments specifically designed to deter collusion with criminal groups. More effective securing of military arsenals. Skills and external oversight leveraged through combined operations, to build cooperation among those sectors of the military that have successful and clean records in countering criminal groups, and to expose weaker forces to effective best practices.

The American politics of a Jewish Judea and Samaria

This dissertation poses a set of six questions about one of the Israel Lobby's particular components, a Potential Christian Jewish coalition (PCJc) within American politics that advocates for Israeli sovereignty over "Judea and Samaria" ("the West Bank"). The study addresses: the profiles of the individuals of the PCJc; its policy positions, the issues that have divided it, and what has prevented, and continues to prevent, the coalition from being absorbed into one or more of the more formally organized components of the Israel Lobby; the resources and methods this coalition has used to attempt to influence U.S. policy on (a) the Middle East, and (b) the Arab-Israeli conflict in particular; the successes or failures of this coalition's advocacy and why it has not organized; and what this case reveals about interest group politics and social movements in the United States. This dissertation follows the descriptive-analytic case-study tradition that comprises a detailed analysis of a specific interest group and one policy issue, which conforms to my interest in the potential Christian Jewish coalition that supports a Jewish Judea and Samaria. I have employed participant observation, interviewing, content analysis and documentary research. The findings suggest: The PCJc consists of Christian Zionists and mostly Jews of the center religious denominations. Orthodox Jewish traditions of separation from Christians inhibit like-minded Christians and Jews from organizing. The PCJc opposes an Arab state in Judea and Samaria, and is not absorbed into more formally organized interest groups that support that policy. The PCJc's resources consist of support and funding from conservatives. Methods include use of education, debates and media. Members of the PCJc are successful because they persist in their support for a Jewish Judea and Samaria and meet through other organizations around Judeo-Christian values. The PCJc is deterred from advocacy and organization by a mobilization of bias from a subgovernment in Washington, D.C. comprising Congress, the Executive branch and lobby organizations. The study's results raise questions about interest group politics in America and the degree to which the U.S. political system is pluralistic, suggesting that executive power constrains the agenda to "safe" positions it favors.

Inflation, currency substitution, and dollarization : the case of Argentina

This dissertation discusses the relationship between inflation, currency substitution and dollarization that has taken place in Argentina for the past several decades. First, it is shown that when consumers are able to hold only domestic monetary balances (without capital mobility) an increase in the rate of inflation will produce a balance of payments deficit. We then look at the same issue but with heterogeneous consumers, this heterogeneity being generated by non-proportional lump-sum transfers. Second, we discussed some necessary assumptions related to currency substitution models and concluded that there was no a-priori conclusion on whether currencies should be assumed to be "cooperant" or "non-cooperant" in utility. That is to say, whether individuals held different currencies together or one instead of the other. Third, we went into discussing the issue of currency substitution as being a constraint on governments inflationary objectives rather than a choice of those governments to avoid hyperinflations. We showed that imperfect substitutability between currencies does not "reduce the scope for rational (hyper)inflationary processes" as it had been previously argued. It will ultimately depend on the parametrization used and not on the intrinsic characteristics of imperfect substitutability between currencies. We further showed that in Argentina, individuals have been able to endogenize the money supply by holding foreign monetary balances. We argued that the decision to hold foreign monetary balances by individuals is always a second best due to the trade-off between holding foreign monetary balances and consumption. For some levels of income, consumption, and foreign inflation, individuals would prefer to hold domestic monetary balances rather than foreign ones. We then modeled the distinction between dollarization and currency substitution. We concluded that although dollarization is necessary for currency substitution to take place, the decision to use foreign monetary balances for transactions purposes is largely independent from the dollarization process. Finally, we concluded that Argentina should not fully dollarize its economy because dollarization is always a second best to using a domestic currency. Further, we argued that a fixed exchange system would be better than a flexible exchange rate or a "crawling-peg" system because of the characteristics of the political system and the possibilities of "mass praetorianism" to develop, which is intricately linked to "populist" solutions.

Fundamentos dos cuidados com crianças e adolescentes: um olhar sobre o Rio Grande do Norte entre 1964 e 1988

Childhood and adolescence care has frequently caused theoretical and methodological discussions. At national level, the way of dealing with this public has always been on the agenda, either by maintaining a paternalistic treatment, or by coercive and repressive expression with which this public is treated. Given the above, this research presents a thorough study of social policies focused on children and adolescents in Brazil, with the overall purpose of investigating how this process of implementation of public policies for poor children and adolescents in the state of Rio Grande do Norte was. In previous studies, it was identified that there are no official records regarding the policy implementation process for this population in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. A retrospective study about the care towards children and adolescents in Brazil was held. It ranged from the XXVIII century, through the period of assistance, until the historical period in which the child started to be considered from the perspective of a policy. Thus, a certain period was framed, so that, through the historical research method, this study could focus on gathering data about the attention focused on childhood and adolescence in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 1964 and 1988. Data was listed from newspaper files that circulated in the state during period mentioned above. This time framing corresponds to the regency of the National Policy of Child Welfare. In the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the implementation of institutions such as FUNBERN and then FEBEM did not differ from the national standard, since many projects and care programs for poor children and teenagers were executed in this period. The implementation of these institutions revealed the concern of the state in solving the problem of “minors” regarding to situations of abandonment or "delinquency" which they were involved with. However, the kind of protection provided by the state toward this population was based on the current ideology that supported the political system at the time: the military dictatorship. Thus, the main way to provide care to this population was through its institutionalization, through taking children to daycare centres and adolescents to “reeducational” institutes for “minors”.

Capacidades estatais para implementação de políticas públicas em ambientes federativos: o caso do Programa Bolsa Família

This thesis aims to understand the extent to which state capacities of state governments explain the effectiveness of the implementation of Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) in the Northeast, adopting the implementation of the theory as the main theoretical lens and more specifically the concept of state capacity. Methodologically is a study of public policy evaluation, and categorized as a process of evaluation study or implementation. Given the specificity of the object is classified as a multi case study research covering the states of Sergipe, Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia. In addition to using secondary data, the study used semi-structured interviews with members of Intersectoral Committees responsible for the actions of PBF and the Cadastro Único at the state level, composed of representatives of the areas of the state government of Social Welfare, Education and Health. the main findings related to technical and administrative capacities and policies were found: infrastructure with weakness in human resources, technological and financial resources; intra-governmental coordination with boundaries between PBF and Unified Social Assistance System , and the actions of conditionality of health and Health Unic System Basic Attention; intergovernmental coordination carried out mostly by the distance limitations of displacement and incipient regional decentralization of actions; based monitoring in the municipalities of lower performance and from the parameters placed by the federal government and political capacities; representative political system is hardly accessed by instances of program management; minor social participation and low articulation with related issues advice to PBF; audit control by any outside agencies. The thesis concludes that depending on the capabilities found implementing weaknesses are not unique to the program's actions, but from the very institutional capacity of the systems in which it operates that are the Unified Social Assistance System, the Health Unic System and the Educational System. In other words limitations of their own state capacities of the state governments and the municipal governments of each territory, such as quantitative insufficiency and qualification of human resources, financial and institutional resources, lack instance promoting decentralization (Intergovernmental and intra-governmental) as well the weakness or absence of a network of local social services are also factors that explain the program management performance and state capabilities of arrangements formed by states and municipalities in the PBF, only to partially deal with the complexity of joints involving Implementation of the program with regard to inter and intra-governmental action.

Capacidades estatais para implementação de políticas públicas em ambientes federativos: o caso do Programa Bolsa Família

This thesis aims to understand the extent to which state capacities of state governments explain the effectiveness of the implementation of Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) in the Northeast, adopting the implementation of the theory as the main theoretical lens and more specifically the concept of state capacity. Methodologically is a study of public policy evaluation, and categorized as a process of evaluation study or implementation. Given the specificity of the object is classified as a multi case study research covering the states of Sergipe, Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia. In addition to using secondary data, the study used semi-structured interviews with members of Intersectoral Committees responsible for the actions of PBF and the Cadastro Único at the state level, composed of representatives of the areas of the state government of Social Welfare, Education and Health. the main findings related to technical and administrative capacities and policies were found: infrastructure with weakness in human resources, technological and financial resources; intra-governmental coordination with boundaries between PBF and Unified Social Assistance System , and the actions of conditionality of health and Health Unic System Basic Attention; intergovernmental coordination carried out mostly by the distance limitations of displacement and incipient regional decentralization of actions; based monitoring in the municipalities of lower performance and from the parameters placed by the federal government and political capacities; representative political system is hardly accessed by instances of program management; minor social participation and low articulation with related issues advice to PBF; audit control by any outside agencies. The thesis concludes that depending on the capabilities found implementing weaknesses are not unique to the program's actions, but from the very institutional capacity of the systems in which it operates that are the Unified Social Assistance System, the Health Unic System and the Educational System. In other words limitations of their own state capacities of the state governments and the municipal governments of each territory, such as quantitative insufficiency and qualification of human resources, financial and institutional resources, lack instance promoting decentralization (Intergovernmental and intra-governmental) as well the weakness or absence of a network of local social services are also factors that explain the program management performance and state capabilities of arrangements formed by states and municipalities in the PBF, only to partially deal with the complexity of joints involving Implementation of the program with regard to inter and intra-governmental action.

"Ombro a ombro com os mais fracos": a inserção de João Café Filho nos espaços do trabalhador na cidade do Natal 1922 - 1937

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how João Café Filho constituted a discourse of advocate of the labor movement and workers in different sociability spaces. It is intended to understand, on one hand, how political relations were established between different categories of workers and the ‘middle classes’ and, on the other hand, how places were instituted to house the meeting of these relations. It a ims to understand the insertion of Café Filho in union activities in the urban world. It demonstrates specificities of the political culture in Natal emphasizing the dispute between a city politically ruled by a still reigning rural paternalistic mentality and the rise of a new way to experience the urban conflicts which appeared. Temporally, the work is delimited between 1922 (proclaimed by Café Filho himself as the initial period of his political action) and 1937 (when he broke up with Vargas and went into exile in Argentina). The research was constituted by three main document types: several published newspapers between the decades of 1920 and 1930 in the cities of Natal, Recife, São Paulo, Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro; the autobiographical memoirs written by Café Filho himself and memoirs of other people who lived in his time. The main pillars that have supported the work were: the concepts of society and individuals (ELIAS, 1994; 1995), political cultures (BERSTEIN, 1998) and theater of the memory (GOMES, 2004); the sociability spaces category (CERTEAU, 1994; MALATIAN, 2001; RIOX, 1996); the biography notion (DOSSE, 2009; LORIGA, 2011). We demonstrated that Café Filho acted in some sociability spaces as: the Jornal do Norte, the Federação Regional do Trabalho and the Partido Democrático Nacional. In such spaces, Café Filho, gradually, become an important leader of workers and, at the same time, linked to national entities led to the opposition that fight against the power established in the Brazilian First Republic. In Café Filho’s interpretation, workers were individuals who needed to fight against the political structures prevailing at that time because the poor living conditions and the low representativeness of this group were caused by the way the political system in the First Republic was structured. After the 1930 Movement, the 3 de Outubro Club, the Jornal and the Labor Federation of Natal were constituted in spaces where the cafeista critical discourse about the government was changed: workers should follow the official syndicalism and defend the 1930 Movement which put Vargas in the presidency of the Republic.

Les coalitions politiques et l'orientation du changement économique et politique aux États-Unis : la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession comparées

Ce mémoire s’intéresse au concept de crise, économique et politique, comme source de changement idéologique et politique. Au travers de l’étude de l’austérité économique, il sera possible d’identifier des différences majeures entre deux épisodes de troubles économiques importants, la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession. Alors que la Grande Dépression est caractérisée par une double crise, économique et politique, la Grande Récession, elle, demeure un choc essentiellement économique. L’absence de contagion dans le système politique explique la ténacité d’une idée comme l’austérité, de retour depuis la révolution néolibérale des années 80. L’austérité économique s’est adaptée et s’aligne maintenant aux intérêts d’une frange importante de la coalition démocrate. La persistance de l’allure des coalitions politiques depuis le dernier grand réalignement témoigne de l’absence de transformation majeure du mode d’action étatique, ce qui constitue une différence importante entre les deux crises.