Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

A Thomason model structure on the category of small n-fold categories

We construct a cofibrantly generated Thomason model structure on the category of small n-fold categories and prove that it is Quillen equivalent to the standard model structure on the category of simplicial sets. An n-fold functor is a weak equivalence if and only if the diagonal of its n-fold nerve is a weak equivalence of simplicial sets. We introduce an n-fold Grothendieck construction for multisimplicial sets, and prove that it is a homotopy inverse to the n-fold nerve. As a consequence, the unit and counit of the adjunction between simplicial sets and n-fold categories are natural weak equivalences.

Precursor ion scans for the targeted detection of stable-isotope-labeled peptides.

Stable isotope labels are routinely introduced into proteomes for quantification purposes. Full labeling of cells in varying biological states, followed by sample mixing, fractionation and intensive data acquisition, is used to obtain accurate large-scale quantification of total protein levels. However, biological processes often affect only a small group of proteins for a short time, resulting in changes that are difficult to detect against the total proteome background. An alternative approach could be the targeted analysis of the proteins synthesized in response to a given biological stimulus. Such proteins can be pulse-labeled with a stable isotope by metabolic incorporation of 'heavy' amino acids. In this study we investigated the specific detection and identification of labeled proteins using acquisition methods based on Precursor Ion Scans (PIS) on a triple-quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. PIS-based methods were set to detect unique immonium ions originating from labeled peptides. Different labels and methods were tested in standard mixtures to optimize performance. We showed that, in comparison with an untargeted analysis on the same instrument, the approach allowed a several-fold increase in the specificity of detection of labeled proteins over unlabeled ones. The technique was applied to the identification of proteins secreted by human cells into growth media containing bovine serum proteins, allowing the preferential detection of labeled cellular proteins over unlabeled bovine ones. However, compared with untargeted acquisitions on two different instruments, the PIS-based strategy showed some limitations in sensitivity. We discuss possible perspectives of the technique.

Development of the BG-Malaria trap as an alternative to human-landing catches for the capture of Anopheles darlingi

Although the human-landing catch (HLC) method is the most effective for collecting anthropophilic anophelines, it has been increasingly abandoned, primarily for ethical considerations. The objective of the present study was to develop a new trap for the collection of Anopheles darlingi . The initial trials were conducted using the BG-Sentinel trap as a standard for further trap development based on colour, airflow direction and illumination. The performance of the trap was then compared with those of the CDC, Fay-Prince, counterflow geometry trap (CFG) and HLC. All trials were conducted outdoors between 06:00 pm-08:00 pm. Female specimens of An. darlingi were dissected to determine their parity. A total of 8,334 anophelines were captured, of which 4,945 were identified as An. darlingi . The best trap configuration was an all-white version, with an upward airflow and no required light source. This configuration was subsequently named BG-Malaria (BGM). The BGM captured significantly more anophelines than any of the other traps tested and was similar to HLC with respect to the number and parity of anophelines. The BGM trap can be used as an alternative to HLC for collecting anophelines.

Contribution to the Development of the LHCb Vertex Locator Readout Electronics

L'expérience LHCb sera installée sur le futur accélérateur LHC du CERN. LHCb est un spectromètre à un bras consacré aux mesures de précision de la violation CP et à l'étude des désintégrations rares des particules qui contiennent un quark b. Actuellement LHCb se trouve dans la phase finale de recherche et développement et de conception. La construction a déjà commencé pour l'aimant et les calorimètres. Dans le Modèle Standard, la violation CP est causée par une phase complexe dans la matrice 3x3 CKM (Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa) de mélange des quarks. L'expérience LHCb compte utiliser les mesons B pour tester l'unitarité de cette matrice, en mesurant de diverses manières indépendantes tous les angles et côtés du "triangle d'unitarité". Cela permettra de surdéterminer le modèle et, peut-être, de mettre en évidence des incohérences qui seraient le signal de l'existence d'une physique au-delà du Modèle Standard. La reconstruction du vertex de désintégration des particules est une condition fondamentale pour l'expérience LHCb. La présence d'un vertex secondaire déplacé est une signature de la désintégration de particules avec un quark b. Cette signature est utilisée dans le trigger topologique du LHCb. Le Vertex Locator (VeLo) doit fournir des mesures précises de coordonnées de passage des traces près de la région d'interaction. Ces points sont ensuite utilisés pour reconstruire les trajectoires des particules et l'identification des vertices secondaires et la mesure des temps de vie des hadrons avec quark b. L'électronique du VeLo est une partie essentielle du système d'acquisition de données et doit se conformer aux spécifications de l'électronique de LHCb. La conception des circuits doit maximiser le rapport signal/bruit pour obtenir la meilleure performance de reconstruction des traces dans le détecteur. L'électronique, conçue en parallèle avec le développement du détecteur de silicium, a parcouru plusieurs phases de "prototyping" décrites dans cette thèse.<br/><br/>The LHCb experiment is being built at the future LHC accelerator at CERN. It is a forward single-arm spectrometer dedicated to precision measurements of CP violation and rare decays in the b quark sector. Presently it is finishing its R&D and final design stage. The construction already started for the magnet and calorimeters. In the Standard Model, CP violation arises via the complex phase of the 3 x 3 CKM (Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa) quark mixing matrix. The LHCb experiment will test the unitarity of this matrix by measuring in several theoretically unrelated ways all angles and sides of the so-called "unitary triangle". This will allow to over-constrain the model and - hopefully - to exhibit inconsistencies which will be a signal of physics beyond the Standard Model. The Vertex reconstruction is a fundamental requirement for the LHCb experiment. Displaced secondary vertices are a distinctive feature of b-hadron decays. This signature is used in the LHCb topology trigger. The Vertex Locator (VeLo) has to provide precise measurements of track coordinates close to the interaction region. These are used to reconstruct production and decay vertices of beauty-hadrons and to provide accurate measurements of their decay lifetimes. The Vertex Locator electronics is an essential part of the data acquisition system and must conform to the overall LHCb electronics specification. The design of the electronics must maximise the signal to noise ratio in order to achieve the best tracking reconstruction performance in the detector. The electronics is being designed in parallel with the silicon detector development and went trough several prototyping phases, which are described in this thesis.

Optimized dark matter searches in deep observations of Segue 1 with MAGIC

We present the results of stereoscopic observations of the satellite galaxy Segue 1 with the MAGIC Telescopes, carried out between 2011 and 2013. With almost 160 hours of good-quality data, this is the deepest observational campaign on any dwarf galaxy performed so far in the very high energy range of the electromagnetic spectrum. We search this large data sample for signals of dark matter particles in the mass range between 100 GeV and 20 TeV. For this we use the full likelihood analysis method, which provides optimal sensitivity to characteristic gamma-ray spectral features, like those expected from dark matter annihilation or decay. In particular, we focus our search on gamma-rays produced from different final state Standard Model particles, annihilation with internal bremsstrahlung, monochromatic lines and box-shaped signals. Our results represent the most stringent constraints to the annihilation cross-section or decay lifetime obtained from observations of satellite galaxies, for masses above few hundred GeV. In particular, our strongest limit (95% confidence level) corresponds to a ~ 500 GeV dark matter particle annihilating into τ+τ−, and is of order langleσannvrangle simeq 1.2 × 10−24 cm3 s−1 a factor ~ 40 above the langleσannvrangle simeq thermal value.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

Discrimination d'événements par analyse des signaux enregistrés par le projet PICASSO

La matière sombre est un mystère dans le domaine de l’astrophysique depuis déjà plusieurs années. De nombreuses observations montrent que jusqu’à 85 % de la masse gravitationnelle totale de l’univers serait composée de cette matière de nature inconnue. Une théorie expliquant cette masse manquante considérerait les WIMPs (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles), particules stables, non chargées, prédites par des extensions du modèle standard, comme candidats. Le projet PICASSO (Projet d’Identification des CAndidats Supersymétriques à la matière Sombre) est une expérience qui tente de détecter directement le WIMP. Le projet utilise des détecteurs à gouttelettes de fréon (C4F10) surchauffées. La collision entre un WIMP et le noyau de fluor crée un recul nucléaire qui cause à son tour une transition de phase de la gouttelette liquide à une bulle gazeuse. Le bruit de ce phénomène est alors capté par des senseurs piézoélectriques montés sur les parois des détecteurs. Le WIMP n’est cependant pas la seule particule pouvant causer une telle transition de phase. D’autres particules environnantes peuvent former des bulles, telles les particules alpha où même des rayons gamma . Le système d’acquisition de données (DAQ) est aussi en proie à du bruit électronique qui peut être enregistré, ainsi que sensible à du bruit acoustique extérieur au détecteur. Finalement, des fractures dans le polymère qui tient les gouttelettes en place peut également causer des transitions de phase spontanées. Il faut donc minimiser l’impact de tous ces différents bruit de fond. La pureté du matériel utilisé dans la fabrication des détecteurs devient alors très importante. On fait aussi appel à des méthodes qui impliquent l’utilisation de variables de discrimination développées dans le but d’améliorer les limites d’exclusion de détection du WIMP.

The Search for New Resonances in Strong Symmetry Breaking Scenarios with the ATLAS Detector

Utilisant les plus récentes données recueillies par le détecteur ATLAS lors de collisions pp à 7 et 8 TeV au LHC, cette thèse établira des contraintes sévères sur une multitude de modèles allant au-delà du modèle standard (MS) de la physique des particules. Plus particulièrement, deux types de particules hypothétiques, existant dans divers modèles théoriques et qui ne sont pas présentes dans le MS, seront étudiés et sondés. Le premier type étudié sera les quarks-vectoriels (QV) produits lors de collisions pp par l’entremise de couplages électrofaibles avec les quarks légers u et d. On recherchera ces QV lorsqu’ils se désintègrent en un boson W ou Z, et un quark léger. Des arguments théoriques établissent que sous certaines conditions raisonnables la production simple dominerait la production en paires des QV. La topologie particulière des évènements en production simple des QV permettra alors la mise en oeuvre de techniques d’optimisation efficaces pour leur extraction des bruits de fond électrofaibles. Le deuxième type de particules recherché sera celles qui se désintègrent en WZ lorsque ces bosons de jauges W, et Z se désintègrent leptoniquement. Les états finaux détectés par ATLAS seront par conséquent des évènements ayant trois leptons et de l’énergie transverse manquante. La distribution de la masse invariante de ces objets sera alors examinée pour déterminer la présence ou non de nouvelles résonances qui se manifesterait par un excès localisé. Malgré le fait qu’à première vue ces deux nouveaux types de particules n’ont que très peu en commun, ils ont en réalité tous deux un lien étroit avec la brisure de symétrie électrofaible. Dans plusieurs modèles théoriques, l’existence hypothétique des QV est proposé pour annuler les contributions du quark top aux corrections radiatives de la masse du Higgs du MS. Parallèlement, d’autres modèles prédisent quant à eux des résonances en WZ tout en suggérant que le Higgs est une particule composite, chambardant ainsi tout le sector Higgs du MS. Ainsi, les deux analyses présentées dans cette thèse ont un lien fondamental avec la nature même du Higgs, élargissant par le fait même nos connaissances sur l’origine de la masse intrinsèque des particules. En fin de compte, les deux analyses n’ont pas observé d’excès significatif dans leurs régions de signal respectives, ce qui permet d’établir des limites sur la section efficace de production en fonction de la masse des résonances.

Multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic 15N-labeling

There are several advantages of using metabolic labeling in quantitative proteomics. The early pooling of samples compared to post-labeling methods eliminates errors from different sample processing, protein extraction and enzymatic digestion. Metabolic labeling is also highly efficient and relatively inexpensive compared to commercial labeling reagents. However, methods for multiplexed quantitation in the MS-domain (or ‘non-isobaric’ methods), suffer from signal dilution at higher degrees of multiplexing, as the MS/MS signal for peptide identification is lower given the same amount of peptide loaded onto the column or injected into the mass spectrometer. This may partly be overcome by mixing the samples at non-uniform ratios, for instance by increasing the fraction of unlabeled proteins. We have developed an algorithm for arbitrary degrees of nonisobaric multiplexing for relative protein abundance measurements. We have used metabolic labeling with different levels of 15N, but the algorithm is in principle applicable to any isotope or combination of isotopes. Ion trap mass spectrometers are fast and suitable for LC-MS/MS and peptide identification. However, they cannot resolve overlapping isotopic envelopes from different peptides, which makes them less suitable for MS-based quantitation. Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance (FTICR) mass spectrometry is less suitable for LC-MS/MS, but provides the resolving power required to resolve overlapping isotopic envelopes. We therefore combined ion trap LC-MS/MS for peptide identification with FTICR LC-MS for quantitation using chromatographic alignment. We applied the method in a heat shock study in a plant model system (A. thaliana) and compared the results with gene expression data from similar experiments in literature.

Simulating the interannual variability of major dust storms on Mars using variable lifting thresholds

The redistribution of a finite amount of martian surface dust during global dust storms and in the intervening periods has been modelled in a dust lifting version of the UK Mars General Circulation Model. When using a constant, uniform threshold in the model’s wind stress lifting parameterisation and assuming an unlimited supply of surface dust, multiannual simulations displayed some variability in dust lifting activity from year to year, arising from internal variability manifested in surface wind stress, but dust storms were limited in size and formed within a relatively short seasonal window. Lifting thresholds were then allowed to vary at each model gridpoint, dependent on the rates of emission or deposition of dust. This enhanced interannual variability in dust storm magnitude and timing, such that model storms covered most of the observed ranges in size and initiation date within a single multiannual simulation. Peak storm magnitude in a given year was primarily determined by the availability of surface dust at a number of key sites in the southern hemisphere. The observed global dust storm (GDS) frequency of roughly one in every 3 years was approximately reproduced, but the model failed to generate these GDSs spontaneously in the southern hemisphere, where they have typically been observed to initiate. After several years of simulation, the surface threshold field—a proxy for net change in surface dust density—showed good qualitative agreement with the observed pattern of martian surface dust cover. The model produced a net northward cross-equatorial dust mass flux, which necessitated the addition of an artificial threshold decrease rate in order to allow the continued generation of dust storms over the course of a multiannual simulation. At standard model resolution, for the southward mass flux due to cross-equatorial flushing storms to offset the northward flux due to GDSs on a timescale of ∼3 years would require an increase in the former by a factor of 3–4. Results at higher model resolution and uncertainties in dust vertical profiles mean that quasi-periodic redistribution of dust on such a timescale nevertheless appears to be a plausible explanation for the observed GDS frequency.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Characterisation of anthracyclines from a cosmomycin D-producing species of Streptomyces by collisionally-activated dissociation and ion mobility mass spectrometry

Cultures of cosmomycin D-producing Streptomyces olindensis ICB20 that were propagated for many generations underwent mutations that resulted in production of a range of related anthracyclines by the bacteria. The anthracyclines that retained the two trisaccharide chains of the parent compound were separated by HPLC. Exact mass determination of these compounds revealed that they differed from cosmomycin D (CosD) in that they contained one to three fewer oxygen atoms (loss of hydroxyl groups). Some of the anthracyclines that were separated by HPLC had the same mass. The location from which the hydroxyl groups had been lost relative to CosD (on the aglycone and/or on the sugar residues) was probed by collisionally-activated dissociation using an electrospray ionisation linear quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. The presence of anthracyclines with the same mass, but different structure, was confirmed using an electrospray ionisation travelling wave ion mobility mass spectrometer.

Renormalization of the S parameter in holographic models of electroweak symmetry breaking

We show that the S parameter is not finite in theories of electroweak symmetry breaking in a slice of anti-de Sitter five-dimensional space, with the light fermions localized in the ultraviolet. We compute the one-loop contributions to S from the Higgs sector and show that they are logarithmically dependent on the cutoff of the theory. We discuss the renormalization of S, as well as the implications for bounds from electroweak precision measurements on these models. We argue that, although in principle the choice of renormalization condition could eliminate the S parameter constraint, a more consistent condition would still result in a large and positive S. On the other hand, we show that the dependence on the Higgs mass in S can be entirely eliminated by the renormalization procedure, making it impossible in these theories to extract a Higgs mass bound from electroweak precision constraints.

Probing bilinear R-parity violating supergravity at the LHC

We study the collider phenomenology of bilinear R-parity violating supergravity, the simplest effective model for supersymmetric neutrino masses accounting for the current neutrino oscillation data. At the CERN Large Hadron Collider the center-of-mass energy will be high enough to probe directly these models through the search for the superpartners of the Standard Model (SM) particles. We analyze the impact of R-parity violation on the canonical supersymmetry searches-that is, we examine how the decay of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) via bilinear R-parity violating interactions degrades the average expected missing momentum of the reactions and show how this diminishes the reach in the usual channels for supersymmetry searches. However, the R-parity violating interactions lead to an enhancement of the final states containing isolated same-sign di-leptons and trileptons, compensating the reach loss in the fully inclusive channel. We show how the searches for displaced vertices associated to LSP decay substantially increase the coverage in supergravity parameter space, giving the corresponding reaches for two reference luminosities of 10 and 100 fb(-1) and compare with those of the R-parity conserving minimal supergravity model.