An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Perceptions of environmental change and use of traditional knowledge to plan riparian forest restoration with relocated communities in Alcantara, Eastern Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ecological aspects and sexual maturity of a southwestern Atlantic population of the planktonic shrimp Lucifer faxoni (Decapoda: Sergestoidea)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Simulating Population Genetics of Pathogen Vectors in Changing Landscapes: Guidelines and Application with Triatoma brasiliensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ocurrence of male morphotypes of Macrobrachium amazonicum (Caridea, Palaemonidae) in a population with an entirely freshwater life cycle

This study records, for the first time, the occurrence of all four male morphotypes in a population of Macrobrachium amazonicum from a continental environment, with an entirely freshwater life cycle. The specimens studied came from the Tietê River, state of São Paulo, Brazil, and were collected in a lotic environment downstream from Ibitinga Dam. This population was compared with other continental populations, including a population from the dam itself, collected in a previous study. Four samples of 30 minutes were taken monthly, using a trap, from January to April 2011. Each male specimen was measured with respect to seven body dimensions as follows: carapace length (CL), right cheliped length (RCL), dactyl length (DCL), propodus length (PPL), carpus length (CRL), merus length (ML) and ischium length (IL). The relative growth was analyzed based on the change in growth patterns of certain body parts in relation to the independent variable CL. The four male morphotypes proposed for the species were found using morphological and morphometric analyses. Different biological characteristics were found between the populations studied. The male population of the lake of Ibitinga and from Pantanal presented mean sizes and number of morphotypes lower than the population studied here. These differences seem to be closely related to ecological characteristics of the environments inhabited by these populations. Our results supported the hypothesis that coastal and continental populations of M. amazonicum belong to the same species.

Drivers of change in animal protein production systems: changes from 'traditional' to 'modern' beef cattle production systems in Brazil

Until 1990, beef cattle production in Brazil was recognized as an enterprise of low investment, low cost of production, as well as an extensive production system that used large land areas to be economically feasible. The situation changed for the Brazilian beef market when the economy stabilized in 1994 and all sectors involved in the beef supply chain were able to predict their associated costs and profits. During the same period, purchasing power of the Brazilian population grew, and as a consequence, consumers began to demand higher quality beef products. This new scenario in the late 1990s and early 2000s has led to more intensive beef production systems in Brazil as well as the need for a greater understanding of how technologies might be applied. As consequence of this evolution, in the last five years, a necessity to increase beef production has occurred. The quality of Brazilian beef has improved compared with beef produced 15 years ago, but continued improvements are needed to achieve excellence in terms of large-scale production of high quality beef, be sustainable over a long period of time, and increase our contribution to global food security.

Evidence-based guidelines for interpreting change scores for the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30

Aim: To use published literature and experts' opinion to investigate the clinical meaning and magnitude of changes in the Quality of Life (QOL) of groups of patients measured with the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Methods: An innovative method combining systematic review of published studies, expert opinions and meta-analysis was used to estimate large, medium, and small mean changes over time for QLQ-C30 scores. Results: Nine hundred and eleven papers were identified, leading to 118 relevant papers. One thousand two hundred and thirty two mean changes in QOL over time were combined in the meta-analysis, with timescales ranging from four days to five years. Guidelines were produced for trivial, small, and medium size classes, for each subscale and for improving and declining scores separately. Estimates for improvements were smaller than respective estimates for declines. Conclusions: These guidelines can be used to aid sample size calculations and interpretation of mean changes over time from groups of patients. Observed mean changes in the QLQ-C30 scores are generally small in most clinical situations, possibly due to response shift. Careful consideration is needed when planning studies where QOL changes over time are of primary interest; the timing of follow up, sample attrition, direction of QOL changes, and subscales of primary interest are key considerations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlates of change in self-perceived oral health among older adults in Brazil Findings from the Health, Well-Being and Aging Study

Background. Identifying changes in the oral health status of older populations, and their predictors and explanations, is necessary for public health planning. The authors assessed patterns of change in oral health-related quality of life in a large cohort of older adults in Brazil during a five-year period and evaluated associations between baseline characteristics and those changes. Methods. The sample consisted of 747 older people enrolled in a Brazilian cohort study called the Health, Well-Being and Aging (Saude, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento [SABE]) Study. Trained examiners measured participants' self-perceived oral health by using the General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI). The authors calculated changes in the overall GOHAI score and in the scores for each of the GOHAI's three dimensions individually by subtracting the baseline score from the score at follow-up. A positive difference indicated improvement in oral health, a negative difference indicated a decline and a difference of zero indicated no change. Results. The authors found that 48.56 percent of the participants experienced a decline in oral health and 33.48 percent experienced an improvement. Participants with 16 or more missing teeth and eight or more years of education were more likely to have an improvement in total GOHAI score. Deterioration was more likely to occur among those with two or more diseases. Improvement and decline in GOHAI functional scores were related to the number of missing teeth. The authors found no significant model for the change in the psychosocial score, and Self-rated general health was the only variable related to both improvement and decline in pain or discomfort scores. Conclusions. The authors observed a bidirectional change in self-perceived oral health, with deterioration predominating. The strongest predictor of improvement in the total GOHAI score was the number of missing teeth, whereas the number of diseases was the strongest predictor of deterioration. Clinical Implications. Dental professionals and policymakers need to know the directions of change in older adults' oral health to establish treatment priorities and evaluate the impact of services directed at this population.

Semantic Equivalence of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the "Body Change Inventory"

With the increase in research on the components of Body Image, validated instruments are needed to evaluate its dimensions. The Body Change Inventory (BCI) assesses strategies used to alter body size among adolescents. The scope of this study was to describe the translation and evaluation for semantic equivalence of the BCI in the Portuguese language. The process involved the steps of (1) translation of the questionnaire to the Portuguese language; (2) back-translation to English; (3) evaluation of semantic equivalence; and (4) assessment of comprehension by professional experts and the target population. The six subscales of the instrument were translated into the Portuguese language. Language adaptations were made to render the instrument suitable for the Brazilian reality. The questions were interpreted as easily understandable by both experts and young people. The Body Change Inventory has been translated and adapted into Portuguese. Evaluation of the operational, measurement and functional equivalence are still needed.

Population size of threatened and endemic birds of the Cerrado in Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina, a fragmented area in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The pressures for land use change have led to an increasing isolation of habitat remnants throughout the world. The goal of this study was to estimate the population size and density of some endemic and threatened species in a nature reserve in the Cerrado biome. One hundred and thirty four point transects were undertaken at the Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina (EEI), one of the last natural grassland savannah remnants in Sao Paulo state, in the south-east of Brazil between September and December 2006 and densities estimated for seven species (four endemic to the Cerrado, one near-endemic and two grassland specialists). Neither species reached the minimum viable population size of 500-5000 individuals. Four species, White-banded Tanager, White-rumped Tanager, Black-throated Saltator and Sharp-tailed Tyrant have populations ranging from 112 to 248 individuals, while the other species have a low population (< 60 individuals). The mean densities of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and Cock-tailed Tyrant in the EEI grassland showed similar values to those observed in larger areas of the Cerrado, which may indicate that the EEL grassland area is well conserved. In spite of the restricted size of the EEI, small areas can maintain some endemic and threatened bird populations, thus contributing to local biodiversity and the ecological processes in the region. The capacity of fragments of Cerrado (similar to 2,000 ha) to maintain populations of endemic and threatened bird species is unlikely to be effective in the long term.

Groundwater resources in Brazil: a review of possible impacts caused by climate change

Groundwater has a strategic role in times of climate change mainly because aquifers can provide water for long periods, even during very long and severe drought. The reduction and/or changes on the precipitation pattern can diminish the recharge mainly in unconfined aquifer, causing available groundwater restriction. The expected impact of long-term climate changes on the Brazilian aquifers for 2050 will lead to a severe reduction in 70% of recharge in the Northeast region aquifers (comparing to 2010 values), varying from 30% to 70% in the North region. Data referring to the South and Southeast regions are more favorable, with an increase in the relative recharge values from 30% to 100%. Another expected impact is the increase in demand and the decrease in the surface water availability that will make the population turn to aquifers as its main source of water for public or private uses in many regions of the country. Thus, an integrated use of surface and groundwater must therefore be considered in the water use planning. The solution of water scarcity is based on three factors: society growth awareness, better knowledge on the characteristics of hydraulic and chemical aquifers and effective management actions.