Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information

This paper considers the optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy when the central bank conducts policy based on its private information about the state of the economy and is unable to commit. Society seeks to maximize social welfare by imposing restrictions on the central bank's actions over time, and the central bank takes these restrictions and the New Keynesian Phillips curve as constraints. By solving a dynamic mechanism design problem we find that it is optimal to grant "constrained discretion" to the central bank by imposing both upper and lower bounds on permissible inflation, and that these bounds must be set in a history-dependent way. The optimal degree of discretion varies over time with the severity of the time-inconsistency problem, and, although no discretion is optimal when the time-inconsistency problem is very severe, our numerical experiment suggests that no-discretion is a transient phenomenon, and that some discretion is granted eventually.

Vigilance behavior of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica): Effect of sex and position in the herd

The Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) is a mountain-dwelling ungulate with an extensive presence in open areas. Optimal group size results from the trade off between advantages (a reduction in the risk of predation) and disadvantages (competition between members of the herd) of group living. In addition, advantages and disadvantages of group living may vary depending on the position of each individual within the herd. Our objective was to study the effect of central vs. peripheral position in the herd on feeding and vigilance behavior in male and female Pyrenean chamois and to ascertain if a group size effect existed. We used focal animal sampling and recorded social interactions when a focal animal was involved. With males, vigilance rate was higher in the central part of the group than at the periphery, probably due to a higher density of animals in the central part of the herd and a higher probability of being disturbed by conspecifics. With females, vigilance rate did not differ according to position in the herd. Females spent more time feeding than males, and males showed a higher frequency of the vigilance behavior than females. We did not observe a clear relationship between group size and vigilance behavior. The differences in vigilance behavior might be due to social interactions.

Optimal exponent heat balance and refined integral methods applied to Stefan problems

When using a polynomial approximating function the most contentious aspect of the Heat Balance Integral Method is the choice of power of the highest order term. In this paper we employ a method recently developed for thermal problems, where the exponent is determined during the solution process, to analyse Stefan problems. This is achieved by minimising an error function. The solution requires no knowledge of an exact solution and generally produces significantly better results than all previous HBI models. The method is illustrated by first applying it to standard thermal problems. A Stefan problem with an analytical solution is then discussed and results compared to the approximate solution. An ablation problem is also analysed and results compared against a numerical solution. In both examples the agreement is excellent. A Stefan problem where the boundary temperature increases exponentially is analysed. This highlights the difficulties that can be encountered with a time dependent boundary condition. Finally, melting with a time-dependent flux is briefly analysed without applying analytical or numerical results to assess the accuracy.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

Application of detection probabilities to the design of amphibian monitoring programs in temporary ponds

Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yielded optimal results and constituted an acceptable compromise between sampling efficacy and survey effort. Our study provides evidence of the variability and uncertainty that likely affects the efficacy of monitoring surveys, highlighting the need of repeated sampling in both ecological studies and conservation management.

Evaluation of susceptibility of pear and plum varieties and rootstocks to Ca. P. pyri and Ca. P. prunorum using Real-Time PCR

Real-time PCR was used to quantify phytoplasma concentration in fifty inoculated trees from five Prunus rootstocks and in forty-eight symptomatic pear and Japanese plum trees from orchards. Seasonal fluctuation of Ca. P. prunorum in different Prunus rootstocks, over three years, showed that the highest percentage detected by nested-PCR was in the ‘Garnem’ rootstock on nearly all sampling dates. Intra-varietal differences were also observed. Phytoplasma titer could be estimated by real time PCR in some trees of the rootstocks ‘Garnem’, ‘Barrier’, ‘GF-677’ and ‘Marianna’, and ranged from 4.7x105 to 3.18x109 phytoplasmas per gram of tissue. Quantification by real-time PCR was not possible in the ‘Cadaman’ trees analyzed, probably due to a lower phytoplasma titer in this variety. Samples from infected trees from commercial plots had different phytoplasma concentration and detection percentage depending on the variety, both being lower in ‘Fortune’ and ‘606’ Japanese plum and in ‘Blanquilla’ pear trees.

Spin-labeling coronary MR angiography with steady-state free precession and radial k-space sampling: initial results in healthy volunteers.

The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare free-breathing navigator-gated cardiac-triggered three-dimensional steady-state free precession (SSFP) spin-labeling coronary magnetic resonance (MR) angiography performed by using Cartesian k-space sampling with that performed by using radial k-space sampling. A new dedicated placement of the two-dimensional selective labeling pulse and an individually adjusted labeling delay time approved by the institutional review board were used. In 14 volunteers (eight men, six women; mean age, 28.8 years) who gave informed consent, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel sharpness, vessel length, and subjective image quality were investigated. Differences between groups were analyzed with nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Pearson chi2). Radial imaging, as compared with Cartesian imaging, resulted in a significant reduction in the severity of motion artifacts, as well as an increase in SNR (26.9 vs 12.0, P < .05) in the coronary arteries and CNR (23.1 vs 8.8, P < .05) between the coronary arteries and the myocardium. A tendency toward improved vessel sharpness and vessel length was also found with radial imaging. Radial SSFP imaging is a promising technique for spin-labeling coronary MR angiography.

Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Is PaCO2 management optimal under controlled mechanical ventilation (CMV) during neuro-resuscitation?

INTRODUCTION. Both hypocapnia and hypercapnia can be deleterious to brain injured patients. Strict PaCO2 control is difficult to achieve because of patient's instability and unpredictable effects of ventilator settings changes. OBJECTIVE. The aim of this study was to evaluate our ability to comply with a protocol of controlled mechanical ventilation (CMV) aiming at a PaCO2 between 35 and 40 mmHg in patients requiring neuro-resuscitation. METHODS. Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients (2005-2011) requiring intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring for traumatic brain injury (TBI), subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) or ischemic stroke (IS). Demographic data, GCS, SAPS II, hospital mortality, PaCO2 and ICP values were recorded. During CMV in the first 48 h after admission, we analyzed the time spent within the PaCO2 target in relation to the presence or absence of intracranial hypertension (ICP[20 mmHg, by periods of 30 min) (Table 1). We also compared the fraction of time (determined by linear interpolation) spent with normal, low or high PaCO2 in hospital survivors and non-survivors (Wilcoxon, Bonferroni correction, p\0.05) (Table 2). PaCO2 samples collected during and after apnoea tests were excluded. Results given as median [IQR]. RESULTS. 436 patients were included (TBI: 51.2 %, SAH: 20.6 %, ICH: 23.2 %, IS: 5.0 %), age: 54 [39-64], SAPS II score: 52 [41-62], GCS: 5 [3-8]. 8744 PaCO2 samples were collected during 150611 h of CMV. CONCLUSIONS. Despite a high number of PaCO2 samples collected (in average one sample every 107 min), our results show that patients undergoing CMV for neuro- resuscitation spent less than half of the time within the pre-defined PaCO2 range. During documented intracranial hypertension, hypercapnia was observed in 17.4 % of the time. Since non-survivors spent more time with hypocapnia, further analysis is required to determine whether hypocapnia was detrimental per se, or merely reflects increased severity of brain insult.

Assessment of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA

Introduction: Coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is a medical imaging technique that involves collecting data from consecutive heartbeats, always at the same time in the cardiac cycle, in order to minimize heart motion artifacts. This technique relies on the assumption that coronary arteries always follow the same trajectory from heartbeat to heartbeat. Until now, choosing the acquisition window in the cardiac cycle was based exclusively on the position of minimal coronary motion. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that there are time intervals during the cardiac cycle when coronary beat-to-beat repositioning is optimal. The repositioning uncertainty values in these time intervals were then compared with the intervals of low coronary motion in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA. Methods: Cine breath-hold x-ray angiograms with synchronous ECG were collected from 11 patients who underwent elective routine diagnostic coronarography. Twenty-three bifurcations of the left coronary artery were selected as markers to evaluate repositioning uncertainty and velocity during cardiac cycle. Each bifurcation was tracked by two observers, with the help of a user-assisted algorithm implemented in Matlab (The Mathworks, Natick, MA, USA) that compared the trajectories of the markers coming from consecutive heartbeats and computed the coronary repositioning uncertainty with steps of 50ms until 650ms after the R-wave. Repositioning uncertainty was defined as the diameter of the smallest circle encompassing the points to be compared at the same time after the R-wave. Student's t-tests with a false discovery rate (FDR, q=0.1) correction for multiple comparison were applied to see whether coronary repositioning and velocity vary statistically during cardiac cycle. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression were used to assess intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The analysis of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning uncertainty shows a tendency to have better repositioning in mid systole (less than 0.84±0.58mm) and mid diastole (less than 0.89±0.6mm) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 50ms=1.35±0.64mm). According to Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1), two intervals, in mid systole (150-200ms) and mid diastole (550-600ms), provide statistically better repositioning in comparison with the early systole and the early diastole. Coronary velocity analysis reveals that left coronary artery moves more slowly in end systole (14.35±11.35mm/s at 225ms) and mid diastole (11.78±11.62mm/s at 625ms) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 25ms: 55.96±22.34mm/s). This was confirmed by Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1, FDR-corrected p-value=0.054): coronary velocity values at 225, 575 and 625ms are not much different between them but they are statistically inferior to all others. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression show that intra-observer agreement (y=0.97x+0.02 with R²=0.93 at 150ms) is better than inter-observer (y=0.8x+0.11 with R²=0.67 at 150ms). Discussion: The present study has demonstrated that there are two time intervals in the cardiac cycle, one in mid systole and one in mid diastole, where left coronary artery repositioning uncertainty reaches points of local minima. It has also been calculated that the velocity is the lowest in end systole and mid diastole. Since systole is less influenced by heart rate variability than diastole, it was finally proposed to test an acquisition window between 150 and 200ms after the R-wave.

Morbidity, survival, and site of recurrence after mediastinal lymph-node dissection versus systematic sampling after complete resection for non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND: Mediastinal lymph-node dissection was compared to systematic mediastinal lymph-node sampling in patients undergoing complete resection for non-small cell lung cancer with respect to morbidity, duration of chest tube drainage and hospitalization, survival, disease-free survival, and site of recurrence. METHODS: A consecutive series of one hundred patients with non-small-cell lung cancer, clinical stage T1-3 N0-1 after standardized staging, was divided into two groups of 50 patients each, according to the technique of intraoperative mediastinal lymph-node assessment (dissection versus sampling). Mediastinal lymph-node dissection consisted of removal of all lymphatic tissues within defined anatomic landmarks of stations 2-4 and 7-9 on the right side, and stations 4-9 on the left side according to the classification of the American Thoracic Society. Systematic mediastinal lymph-node sampling consisted of harvesting of one or more representative lymph nodes from stations 2-4 and 7-9 on the right side, and stations 4-9 on the left side. RESULTS: All patients had complete resection. A mean follow-up time of 89 months was achieved in 92 patients. The two groups of patients were comparable with respect to age, gender, performance status, tumor stage, histology, extent of lung resection, and follow-up time. No significant difference was found between both groups regarding the duration of chest tube drainage, hospitalization, and morbidity. However, dissection required a longer operation time than sampling (179 +/- 38 min versus 149 +/- 37 min, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in overall survival between the two groups; however, patients with stage I disease had a significantly longer disease-free survival after dissection than after sampling (60.2 +/- 7 versus 44.8 +/- 8 months, p < 0.03). Local recurrence was significantly higher after sampling than after dissection in patients with stage I tumor (12.5% versus 45%, p = 0.02) and in patients with nodal tumor negative mediastinum (N0/N1 disease) (46% versus 13%, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that mediastinal lymph-node dissection may provide a longer disease-free survival in stage I non-small cell lung cancer and, most importantly, a better local tumor control than mediastinal lymph-node sampling after complete resection for N0/N1 disease without leading to increased morbidity.

On optimal computation of MPLS label binding for multipoint-to-point connections

Most network operators have considered reducing Label Switched Routers (LSR) label spaces (i.e. the number of labels that can be used) as a means of simplifying management of underlaying Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and, hence, reducing operational expenditure (OPEX). This letter discusses the problem of reducing the label spaces in Multiprotocol Label Switched (MPLS) networks using label merging - better known as MultiPoint-to-Point (MP2P) connections. Because of its origins in IP, MP2P connections have been considered to have tree- shapes with Label Switched Paths (LSP) as branches. Due to this fact, previous works by many authors affirm that the problem of minimizing the label space using MP2P in MPLS - the Merging Problem - cannot be solved optimally with a polynomial algorithm (NP-complete), since it involves a hard- decision problem. However, in this letter, the Merging Problem is analyzed, from the perspective of MPLS, and it is deduced that tree-shapes in MP2P connections are irrelevant. By overriding this tree-shape consideration, it is possible to perform label merging in polynomial time. Based on how MPLS signaling works, this letter proposes an algorithm to compute the minimum number of labels using label merging: the Full Label Merging algorithm. As conclusion, we reclassify the Merging Problem as Polynomial-solvable, instead of NP-complete. In addition, simulation experiments confirm that without the tree-branch selection problem, more labels can be reduced

Lack of correlation between the optimal glycaemic control and coronary micro vascular dysfunction in patients with diabetes mellitus: a cross sectional study.

Background Coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) is associated with cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Optimal glycaemic control does not always preclude future events. We sought to assess the effect of the current target of HBA1c level on the coronary microcirculatory function and identify predictive factors for CMD in T2DM patients. Methods We studied 100 patients with T2DM and 214 patients without T2DM. All of them with a history of chest pain, non-obstructive angiograms and a direct assessment of coronary blood flow increase in response to adenosine and acetylcholine coronary infusion, for evaluation of endothelial independent and dependent CMD. Patients with T2DM were categorized as having optimal (HbA1c < 7 %) vs. suboptimal (HbA1c ≥ 7 %) glycaemic control at the time of catheterization. Results Baseline characteristics and coronary endothelial function parameters differed significantly between T2DM patients and control group. The prevalence of endothelial independent CMD (29.8 vs. 39.6 %, p = 0.40) and dependent CMD (61.7 vs. 62.2 %, p = 1.00) were similar in patients with optimal vs. suboptimal glycaemic control. Age (OR 1.10; CI 95 % 1.04–1.18; p < 0.001) and female gender (OR 3.87; CI 95 % 1.45–11.4; p < 0.01) were significantly associated with endothelial independent CMD whereas glomerular filtrate (OR 0.97; CI 95 % 0.95–0.99; p < 0.05) was significantly associated with endothelial dependent CMD. The optimal glycaemic control was not associated with endothelial independent (OR 0.60, CI 95 % 0.23–1.46; p 0.26) or dependent CMD (OR 0.99, CI 95 % 0.43–2.24; p = 0.98). Conclusions The current target of HBA1c level does not predict a better coronary microcirculatory function in T2DM patients. The appropriate strategy for prevention of CMD in T2DM patients remains to be addressed. Keywords: Endothelial dysfunction; Diabetes mellitus; Coronary microcirculation