Crop Phenology Estimation Using a Multitemporal Model and a Kalman Filtering Strategy

In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.

Towards a U.S. Army officer corps strategy for success : employing talent /

Efficient talent employment is at the core of the Army Officer Human Capital Model. However, the Army's current employment paradigm is unequal to the needs of a professional, volunteer Army facing the twin challenges of a competitive labor market and an increasingly complex global operating environment. It unduly prioritizes "fairness" when making assignments, has a narrowly defined pathway to senior leadership ranks, cannot see the talent it possesses, and suffers from severe principal-agent problems. Optimal employment theories, information age tools, and well-regulated market mechanisms can help the Army match individual officer talents against specific work requirements, reducing risk and achieving the depth and breadth of talent it needs, both now and in the future.

Genetic and economic analysis of a targeted marker-assisted wheat breeding strategy

The advent of molecular markers as a tool to aid selection has provided plant breeders with the opportunity to rapidly deliver superior genetic solutions to problems in agricultural production systems. However, a major constraint to the implementation of marker-assisted selection (MAS) in pragmatic breeding programs in the past has been the perceived high relative cost of MAS compared to conventional phenotypic selection. In this paper, computer simulation was used to design a genetically effective and economically efficient marker-assisted breeding strategy aimed at a specific outcome. Under investigation was a strategy involving the integration of both restricted backcrossing and doubled haploid (DH) technology. The point at which molecular markers are applied in a selection strategy can be critical to the effectiveness and cost efficiency of that strategy. The application of molecular markers was considered at three phases in the strategy: allele enrichment in the BC1F1 population, gene selection at the haploid stage and the selection for recurrent parent background of DHs prior to field testing. Overall, incorporating MAS at all three stages was the most effective, in terms of delivering a high frequency of desired outcomes and at combining the selected favourable rust resistance, end use quality and grain yield alleles. However, when costs were included in the model the combination of MAS at the BC1F1 and haploid stage was identified as the optimal strategy. A detailed economic analysis showed that incorporation of marker selection at these two stages not only increased genetic gain over the phenotypic alternative but actually reduced the over all cost by 40%.

A new repair-replace strategy for items sold with a two-dimensional warranty

For repairable items, the manufacturer has the option to either repair or replace a failed item that is returned under warranty. In this paper, we look at a new warranty servicing strategy for items sold with two-dimensional warranty where the failed item is replaced by a new one when it fails for the first time in a specified region of the warranty and all other failures are repaired minimally. The region is characterised by two parameters and we derive the optimal values for these to minimise the total expected warranty servicing cost. We compare the results with other repair-replace strategies reported in the literature. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maintenance Strategies for used equipment under lease

Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this research is to determine the optimal upgrade and preventive maintenance actions that minimize the total expected cost (maintenance costs+penalty costs). Design/methodology/approach – The problem is a four-parameter optimization with two parameters being k-dimensional. The optimal solution is obtained by using a four-stage approach where at each stage a one-parameter optimization is solved. Findings – Upgrading action is an extra option before the lease of used equipment, in addition to preventive maintenance action. Upgrading action makes equipment younger and preventive maintenance action lowers the ROCOF. Practical implications – There is a growing trend towards leasing equipment rather than owning it. The lease contract contains penalties if the equipment fails often and repairs are done within reasonable time period. This implies that the lessor needs to look at optimal preventive maintenance strategies in the case of new equipment lease, and upgrade actions plus preventive maintenance in the case of used equipment lease. The paper deals with this topic and is of great significant to business involved with leasing equipment. Originality/value – Nowadays many organizations are interested in leasing equipment and outsourcing maintenance. The model in this paper addresses the preventive maintenance problem for leased equipment. It provides an approach to dealing with this problem.

Knowledge maintenance and the frame problem

Knowledge maintenance is a major challenge for both knowledge management and the Semantic Web. Operating over the Semantic Web, there will be a network of collaborating agents, each with their own ontologies or knowledge bases. Change in the knowledge state of one agent may need to be propagated across a number of agents and their associated ontologies. The challenge is to decide how to propagate a change of knowledge state. The effects of a change in knowledge state cannot be known in advance, and so an agent cannot know who should be informed unless it adopts a simple ‘tell everyone – everything’ strategy. This situation is highly reminiscent of the classic Frame Problem in AI. We argue that for agent-based technologies to succeed, far greater attention must be given to creating an appropriate model for knowledge update. In a closed system, simple strategies are possible (e.g. ‘sleeping dog’ or ‘cheap test’ or even complete checking). However, in an open system where cause and effect are unpredictable, a coherent cost-benefit based model of agent interaction is essential. Otherwise, the effectiveness of every act of knowledge update/maintenance is brought into question.

Designing a support system for aerospace maintenance supply chains

Purpose - To develop a systems strategy for supply chain management in aerospace maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). Design/methodology/approach - A standard systems development methodology has been followed to produce a process model (i.e. the AMSCR model); an information model (i.e. business rules) and a computerised information management capability (i.e. automated optimisation). Findings - The proof of concept for this web-based MRO supply chain system has been established through collaboration with a sample of the different types of supply chain members. The proven benefits comprise new potential to minimise the stock holding costs of the whole supply chain whilst also minimising non-flying time of the aircraft that the supply chain supports. Research limitations/implications - The scale of change needed to successfully model and automate the supply chain is vast. This research is a limited-scale experiment intended to show the power of process analysis and automation, coupled with strategic use of management science techniques, to derive tangible business benefit. Practical implications - This type of system is now vital in an industry that has continuously decreasing profit margins; which in turn means pressure to reduce servicing times and increase the mean time between them. Originality/value - Original work has been conducted at several levels: process, information and automation. The proof-of-concept system has been applied to an aircraft MRO supply chain. This is an area of research that has been neglected, and as a result is not well served by current systems solutions. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Maintenance strategies affecting equipment performance

Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

Agent-orientated auction mechanism and strategy design

Agent-based technology is playing an increasingly important role in today’s economy. Usually a multi-agent system is needed to model an economic system such as a market system, in which heterogeneous trading agents interact with each other autonomously. Two questions often need to be answered regarding such systems: 1) How to design an interacting mechanism that facilitates efficient resource allocation among usually self-interested trading agents? 2) How to design an effective strategy in some specific market mechanisms for an agent to maximise its economic returns? For automated market systems, auction is the most popular mechanism to solve resource allocation problems among their participants. However, auction comes in hundreds of different formats, in which some are better than others in terms of not only the allocative efficiency but also other properties e.g., whether it generates high revenue for the auctioneer, whether it induces stable behaviour of the bidders. In addition, different strategies result in very different performance under the same auction rules. With this background, we are inevitably intrigued to investigate auction mechanism and strategy designs for agent-based economics. The international Trading Agent Competition (TAC) Ad Auction (AA) competition provides a very useful platform to develop and test agent strategies in Generalised Second Price auction (GSP). AstonTAC, the runner-up of TAC AA 2009, is a successful advertiser agent designed for GSP-based keyword auction. In particular, AstonTAC generates adaptive bid prices according to the Market-based Value Per Click and selects a set of keyword queries with highest expected profit to bid on to maximise its expected profit under the limit of conversion capacity. Through evaluation experiments, we show that AstonTAC performs well and stably not only in the competition but also across a broad range of environments. The TAC CAT tournament provides an environment for investigating the optimal design of mechanisms for double auction markets. AstonCAT-Plus is the post-tournament version of the specialist developed for CAT 2010. In our experiments, AstonCAT-Plus not only outperforms most specialist agents designed by other institutions but also achieves high allocative efficiencies, transaction success rates and average trader profits. Moreover, we reveal some insights of the CAT: 1) successful markets should maintain a stable and high market share of intra-marginal traders; 2) a specialist’s performance is dependent on the distribution of trading strategies. However, typical double auction models assume trading agents have a fixed trading direction of either buy or sell. With this limitation they cannot directly reflect the fact that traders in financial markets (the most popular application of double auction) decide their trading directions dynamically. To address this issue, we introduce the Bi-directional Double Auction (BDA) market which is populated by two-way traders. Experiments are conducted under both dynamic and static settings of the continuous BDA market. We find that the allocative efficiency of a continuous BDA market mainly comes from rational selection of trading directions. Furthermore, we introduce a high-performance Kernel trading strategy in the BDA market which uses kernel probability density estimator built on historical transaction data to decide optimal order prices. Kernel trading strategy outperforms some popular intelligent double auction trading strategies including ZIP, GD and RE in the continuous BDA market by making the highest profit in static games and obtaining the best wealth in dynamic games.

The vision strategy of golf putting

Golfers, coaches and researchers alike, have all keyed in on golf putting as an important aspect of overall golf performance. Of the three principle putting tasks (green reading, alignment and the putting action phase), the putting action phase has attracted the most attention from coaches, players and researchers alike. This phase includes the alignment of the club with the ball, the swing, and ball contact. A significant amount of research in this area has focused on measuring golfer’s vision strategies with eye tracking equipment. Unfortunately this research suffers from a number of shortcomings, which limit its usefulness. The purpose of this thesis was to address some of these shortcomings. The primary objective of this thesis was to re-evaluate golfer’s putting vision strategies using binocular eye tracking equipment and to define a new, optimal putting vision strategy which was associated with both higher skill and success. In order to facilitate this research, bespoke computer software was developed and validated, and new gaze behaviour criteria were defined. Additionally, the effects of training (habitual) and competition conditions on the putting vision strategy were examined, as was the effect of ocular dominance. Finally, methods for improving golfer’s binocular vision strategies are discussed, and a clinical plan for the optometric management of the golfer’s vision is presented. The clinical management plan includes the correction of fundamental aspects of golfers’ vision, including monocular refractive errors and binocular vision defects, as well as enhancement of their putting vision strategy, with the overall aim of improving performance on the golf course. This research has been undertaken in order to gain a better understanding of the human visual system and how it relates to the sport performance of golfers specifically. Ultimately, the analysis techniques and methods developed are applicable to the assessment of visual performance in all sports.

Message-passing algorithms for optimal utilization of cognitive radio networks

Cognitive Radio has been proposed as a key technology to significantly improve spectrum usage in wireless networks by enabling unlicensed users to access unused resource. We present new algorithms that are needed for the implementation of opportunistic scheduling policies that maximize the throughput utilization of resources by secondary users, under maximum interference constraints imposed by existing primary users. Our approach is based on the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm, which is advantageous due to its simplicity and potential for distributed implementation. We examine convergence properties and evaluate the performance of the proposed BP algorithms via simulations and demonstrate that the results compare favorably with a benchmark greedy strategy. © 2013 IEEE.

Optimal design of the renewable energy map of Greece using weighted goal-programming and data envelopment analysis

Renewable energy forms have been widely used in the past decades highlighting a "green" shift in energy production. An actual reason behind this turn to renewable energy production is EU directives which set the Union's targets for energy production from renewable sources, greenhouse gas emissions and increase in energy efficiency. All member countries are obligated to apply harmonized legislation and practices and restructure their energy production networks in order to meet EU targets. Towards the fulfillment of 20-20-20 EU targets, in Greece a specific strategy which promotes the construction of large scale Renewable Energy Source plants is promoted. In this paper, we present an optimal design of the Greek renewable energy production network applying a 0-1 Weighted Goal Programming model, considering social, environmental and economic criteria. In the absence of a panel of experts Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is used in order to filter the best out of the possible network structures, seeking for the maximum technical efficiency. Super-Efficiency DEA model is also used in order to reduce the solutions and find the best out of all the possible. The results showed that in order to achieve maximum efficiency, the social and environmental criteria must be weighted more than the economic ones.

Optimal investment under stochastic volatility and power type utility function

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 37F21, 70H20, 37L40, 37C40, 91G80, 93E20.

Towards the strategic adoption of Lean in aviation Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) industry:an empirical study into the industry's Lean status

Purpose - Despite many Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) organisations alluding their positive business performances to the adoption Lean initiatives, there is a paucity of direct literature that validates this assertion. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to study empirically via the use of an industry-wide survey to establish and extent of Lean adoption and to verify its suitability in mitigating prevalent MRO challenges. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical study contained in this paper is facilitated by an industry-wide survey to collect data from several firms across the MRO spectrum. The analysed responses from industry leaders, professionals and executives synthesised with existing literature was used in ascertaining the extent of Lean adoption within the operational framework of the industry. Findings - The empirical study helped in validating the suitability of Lean in MRO context. However, it was also observed that the focus of its application was skewed towards its production-orientated functions more than its service-orientated functions. Nonetheless, this paper presents results of the positive influence of Lean in MRO context. Research limitations/implications - This empirical study presented in this paper was carried out within a framework of key characteristics of operation. Although this approach is sufficient in assessing the industry's Lean status, further assessment can also be achieved within the context of relevant performance metrics which was not included in this paper. Practical implications - By exploring the industry's Lean status within the context of operational characteristics of operation, this study provides MRO practitioners with more awareness into some of the critical factors required for successful holistic Lean realisation. Social implications - The state-of-the-art of Lean within the aviation MRO context established through this research also contributes to the wider product-centric service environment by providing a platform that facilitates strategy development which ensures Lean success within this environment. Originality/value - Apart from validating the suitability of Lean in MRO contexts, by establishing the extent of Lean adoption within the context of the operational framework, this paper provides a clearer insight as to how successful Lean implementation can be achieved via a holistic implementation strategy balanced between the product-centric and service-centric aspects of the industry.

The maintenance of tracking: The role of organizational culture

Modern comprehensive high schools do not formally track students into different programs, but schools offer different curricular sequences with important and stratified consequences for students' post-secondary education. This study used qualitative methodology to examine how schools' organizational cultures influence the maintenance of tracking practices in four comprehensive high schools in Miami. The methodology included long-term participant observation in each of the four schools, unstructured and semi-structured interviews and the collection of written documents produced by the district. A framework based on the concepts of environment, mission, information, strategy, and leadership was used to analyze the data. ^ It was found that school cultures shared deeply held beliefs that regard ability as a fixed trait. This prevented schools from providing access to information about the consequences of course selection to the majority of the student body, with the exception of those students defined as “college bound.” State and County level policies that reward achievement in standardized tests combined with school overcrowding, resulted in organizational cultures that favored the adoption of strategies stressing efficiency, as opposed to a challenging education for all students. Only one of the four schools in the study had a policy requiring students to attempt courses that were more challenging. The practice was resented by both teachers and counselors, since it was perceived as interfering with other goals of the institution, i.e.: graduating students in four years. ^ The culture of the schools stressed college as the only legitimate post-secondary option; consequently, the majority of counselors did not encourage students—even those already defined as “not college material”—to consider other alternatives, such as vocational education. The elimination of formal tracks in these comprehensive high schools resulted in the school culture lacking a clear mission in regards to non-college bound students. Findings are discussed in relation to current theoretical explanations for educational policy and equality of opportunity. ^