Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Effects of sewer conditions on the degradation of selected illicit drug residues in wastewater

The stability of five illicit drug markers in wastewater was tested under different sewer conditions using laboratory-scale sewer reactors. Wastewater was spiked with deuterium labelled isotopes of cocaine, benzoyl ecgonine, methamphetamine, MDMA and 6-acetyl morphine to avoid interference from the native isotopes already present in the wastewater matrix. The sewer reactors were operated at 20 °C and pH 7.5, and wastewater was sampled at 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 h to measure the transformation/degradation of these marker compounds. The results showed that while methamphetamine, MDMA and benzoyl ecgonine were stable in the sewer reactors, cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine degraded quickly. Their degradation rates are significantly higher than the values reportedly measured in wastewater alone (without biofilms). All the degradation processes followed first order kinetics. Benzoyl ecgonine and morphine were also formed from the degradation of cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine, respectively, with stable formation rates throughout the test. These findings suggest that, in sewage epidemiology, it is essential to have relevant information of the sewer system (i.e. type of sewer, hydraulic retention time) in order to accurately back-estimate the consumption of illicit drugs. More research is required to look into detailed sewer conditions (e.g. temperature, pH and ratio of biofilm area to wastewater volume among others) to identify their effects on the fate of illicit drug markers in sewer systems.

Degradability of creatinine under sewer conditions affects its potential to be used as biomarker in sewage epidemiology

Creatinine was proposed to be used as a population normalising factor in sewage epidemiology but its stability in the sewer system has not been assessed. This study thus aimed to evaluate the fate of creatinine under different sewer conditions using laboratory sewer reactors. The results showed that while creatinine was stable in wastewater only, it degraded quickly in reactors with the presence of sewer biofilms. The degradation followed first order kinetics with significantly higher rate in rising main condition than in gravity sewer condition. Additionally, daily loads of creatinine were determined in wastewater samples collected on Census day from 10 wastewater treatment plants around Australia. The measured loads of creatinine from those samples were much lower than expected and did not correlate with the populations across the sampled treatment plants. The results suggested that creatinine may not be a suitable biomarker for population normalisation purpose in sewage epidemiology, especially in sewer catchment with high percentage of rising mains.

The significance of controlled conditions in lentiviral vector titration and in the use of multiplicity of infection (MOI) for predicting gene transfer events

Background: Although lentiviral vectors have been widely used for in vitro and in vivo gene therapy researches, there have been few studies systematically examining various conditions that may affect the determination of the number of viable vector particles in a vector preparation and the use of Multiplicity of Infection (MOI) as a parameter for the prediction of gene transfer events. Methods: Lentiviral vectors encoding a marker gene were packaged and supernatants concentrated. The number of viable vector particles was determined by in vitro transduction and fluorescent microscopy and FACs analyses. Various factors that may affect the transduction process, such as vector inoculum volume, target cell number and type, vector decay, variable vector - target cell contact and adsorption periods were studied. MOI between 0-32 was assessed on commonly used cell lines as well as a new cell line. Results: We demonstrated that the resulting values of lentiviral vector titre varied with changes of conditions in the transduction process, including inoculum volume of the vector, the type and number of target cells, vector stability and the length of period of the vector adsorption to target cells. Vector inoculum and the number of target cells determine the frequencies of gene transfer event, although not proportionally. Vector exposure time to target cells also influenced transduction results. Varying these parameters resulted in a greater than 50-fold differences in the vector titre from the same vector stock. Commonly used cell lines in vector titration were less sensitive to lentiviral vector-mediated gene transfer than a new cell line, FRL 19. Within 0-32 of MOI used transducing four different cell lines, the higher the MOI applied, the higher the efficiency of gene transfer obtained. Conclusion: Several variables in the transduction process affected in in vitro vector titration and resulted in vastly different values from the same vector stock, thus complicating the use of MOI for predicting gene transfer events. Commonly used target cell lines underestimated vector titre. However, within a certain range of MOI, it is possible that, if strictly controlled conditions are observed in the vector titration process, including the use of a sensitive cell line, such as FRL 19 for vector titration, lentivector-mediated gene transfer events could be predicted. © 2004 Zhang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis groE promoter controls the expression of the bicistronic groESL1 operon and shows differential regulation under stress conditions

Heat shock promoters of mycobacteria are strong promoters that become rapidly upregulated during macrophage infection and thus serve as valuable candidates for expressing foreign antigens in recombinant BCG vaccine. In the present study, a new heat shock promoter controlling the expression of the groESL1 operon was identified and characterized. Mycobacterium tuberculosis groESL1 operon codes for the immunodominant 10 kDa (Rv3418c, GroES/Cpn10/Hsp10) and 60 kDa (Rv3417c, GroEL1/Cpn60.1/Hsp60) heat shock proteins. The basal promoter region was 115 bp, while enhanced activity was seen only with a 277-bp fragment. No promoter element was seen in the groES-groEL1 intergenic region. This operon codes for a bicistronic mRNA transcript as determined by reverse transcriptase-PCR and Northern blot analysis. Primer extension analysis identified two transcriptional start sites (TSSs) TSS1 (-236) and TSS2 (-171), out of which one (TSS2) was heat inducible. The groE promoter was more active than the groEL2 promoter in Mycobacterium smegmatis. Further, it was found to be differentially regulated under stress conditions, while the groEL2 promoter was constitutive.

Shock propagation in gas dynamics: explicit form of higher order compatibility conditions

With the use of tensor analysis and the method of singular surfaces, an infinite system of equations can be derived to study the propagation of curved shocks of arbitrary strength in gas dynamics. The first three of these have been explicitly given here. This system is further reduced to one involving scalars only. The choice of dependent variables in the infinite system is quite important, it leads to coefficients free from singularities for all values of the shock strength.

Self-Absorption and Focusing Effects in Carrier Relaxation Dynamics under Depletion Conditions

The effect of a one-dimensional field (1) on the self-absorption characteristics and (2) when we have a finite numerical aperture for the objective lens that focuses the laser beam on the solid are considered here. Self-absorption, in particular its manifestation as an inner filter for the emitted signal, has been observed in luminescence experiments. Models for this effect exist and have been analyzed, but only in the absence of space charge. Using our previous results on minority carrier relaxation in the presence of a field, we obtain expressions incorporating inner filter effects. Focusing of a light beam on the sample, by an objective lens, results in a three-dimensional source and consequently a three-dimensional continuity equation to be solved for the minority carrier concentration. Assuming a one-dimensional electric field and employing Fourier-Bessel transforms, we recast the problem of carrier relaxation and solve the same via an identity that relates it to solutions obtained in the absence of focusing effects. The inner filter effect as well as focusing introduces new time scales in the problem of carrier relaxation. The interplay between the electric field and the parameters which characterize these effects and the consequent modulation of the intensity and time scales of carrier decay signals are analyzed and discussed.

Arterial luminal curvature and fibrous-cap thickness affect critical stress conditions within atherosclerotic plaque: An in vivo MRI-based 2D finite-element study

High mechanical stress in atherosclerotic plaques at vulnerable sites, called critical stress, contributes to plaque rupture. The site of minimum fibrous cap (FC) thickness (FCMIN) and plaque shoulder are well-documented vulnerable sites. The inherent weakness of the FC material at the thinnest point increases the stress, making it vulnerable, and it is the big curvature of the lumen contour over FC which may result in increased plaque stress. We aimed to assess critical stresses at FCMIN and the maximum lumen curvature over FC (LCMAX) and quantify the difference to see which vulnerable site had the highest critical stress and was, therefore, at highest risk of rupture. One hundred patients underwent high resolution carotid magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. We used 352 MR slices with delineated atherosclerotic components for the simulation study. Stresses at all the integral nodes along the lumen surface were calculated using the finite-element method. FCMIN and LCMAX were identified, and critical stresses at these sites were assessed and compared. Critical stress at FC MIN was significantly lower than that at LCMAX (median: 121.55 kPa; inter quartile range (IQR) = [60.70-180.32] kPa vs. 150.80 kPa; IQR = [91.39-235.75] kPa, p < 0.0001). If critical stress at FCMIN was only used, then the stress condition of 238 of 352 MR slices would be underestimated, while if the critical stress at LCMAX only was used, then 112 out of 352 would be underestimated. Stress analysis at FCMIN and LCMAX should be used for a refined mechanical risk assessment of atherosclerotic plaques, since material failure at either site may result in rupture.

Fluid-structure interaction study on human arterial plaque with patient specific geometry and boundary conditions

Atherosclerotic plaque rupture has been extensively considered as the leading cause of death in western countries. It is believed that high stresses within plaque can be an important factor on triggering the rupture of the plaque. Stress analysis in the coronary and carotid arteries with plaque have been developed by many researchers from 2D to 3-D models, from structure analysis only to the Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) models[1].

Memory of past random wave conditions in submarine groundwater discharge

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an integral part of the hydrological cycle and represents an important aspect of land-ocean interactions. We used a numerical model to simulate flow and salt transport in a nearshore groundwater aquifer under varying wave conditions based on yearlong random wave data sets, including storm surge events. The results showed significant flow asymmetry with rapid response of influxes and retarded response of effluxes across the seabed to the irregular wave conditions. While a storm surge immediately intensified seawater influx to the aquifer, the subsequent return of intruded seawater to the sea, as part of an increased SGD, was gradual. Using functional data analysis, we revealed and quantified retarded, cumulative effects of past wave conditions on SGD including the fresh groundwater and recirculating seawater discharge components. The retardation was characterized well by a gamma distribution function regardless of wave conditions. The relationships between discharge rates and wave parameters were quantifiable by a regression model in a functional form independent of the actual irregular wave conditions. This statistical model provides a useful method for analyzing and predicting SGD from nearshore unconfined aquifers affected by random waves

Ancient Philosophers on Mental Illness

This dissertation is about ancient philosophers notions of mental illness, from Plato onwards. Mental illness here means disorders that, in ancient medical thought, were believed to originate in the body but to manifest themselves predominantly through mental symptoms. These illnesses were treated by physical means, which were believed to address the bodily cause of the illness, conceived of as an elemental imbalance or a state of cephalic stricture , for example. Sometimes the mental symptoms were addressed directly by psychotherapeutic means. The first and most important question explored concerns how the ancient philosophers responded to the medical notion of mental illness, and how they explained such illnesses in their theories of physiology and psychology. Although the illnesses are seldom discussed extensively, the philosophers were well aware of their existence and regarded their occurrence an indication of the soul s close dependence on the body. This called for a philosophical account. The second question addressed has to do with the ancient philosophers role as experts in mental problems of a non-medical kind, such as unwanted emotions. These problems were dubbed diseases of the soul , and the philosophers thus claimed to be doctors of the soul. Although the distinction between mental illnesses and diseases of the soul was often presented as rather obvious, there was some vagueness and overlap. There is still a third question that is explored, concerning the status of both mental illnesses and diseases of the soul as unnatural conditions, the role of the human body in the philosophical aetiologies of evil, and the medico-philosophical theories of psycho-physiological temperaments. This work consists of an introduction and five main chapters, focusing on Plato, Aristotle, the Stoics and Galen, and the Sceptics, the Epicureans and later Platonists. The sources drawn on are the original Greek and Latin philosophical and medical texts. It appears that the philosophers accepted the medical notion of mental illness, but interpreted it in various ways. The differences in interpretation were mostly attributable to differences in their theories of the soul. Although the distinction between mental illness and diseases of the soul was important, marking the boundary between the fields of expertise of medicine and philosophy, and of the individual s moral responsibilities, the problematic aspects of establishing it are discussed rather little in ancient philosophy. There may have been various reasons for this. The medical descriptions of mental illness are often extreme, symptoms of the psychotic type excluding the possibility of the condition being of the non-medical kind. In addition, the rigid normativeness of ancient philosophical anthropologies and their rigorous notion of human happiness decreased the need to assess the acceptability of individual variation in their emotional and intellectual lives and external behaviour.

The Art of Sympathy : Forms of Moral and Emotional Persuasion in Fiction

"The Art of Sympathy: Forms of Moral and Emotional Persuasion" in Fiction is an interdisciplinary study that looks closely at the ways that stories evoke sympathy, and the significance of this emotion for the development of moral attitudes and awareness. By linking readers' emotional responses to fiction with the potential impact of such responses on "the moral imagination," the study builds on empirical research conducted by literary scholars and psychologists into the emotional effects of reading fiction, as well as social psychological research into the connections between empathy/sympathy and moral development. I first investigate the dynamics of readers beliefs regarding characters in fictional narratives, and the nature of the emotions that they may experience as a result of those beliefs. The analysis demonstrates that there are important similarities between real emotions and emotions generated by fiction. Recognizing these similarities, I claim, can help us to conceptualize the nature of sympathetic responses to fictional characters. Building on these assertions, I then draw on research from social psychology and philosophy to develop a comprehensive definition of sympathy and to clarify the ways in which sympathy operates, both in people s daily lives and in readers sympathetic responses to fictional characters. Having established this definition and delineated its practical implications, I then examine how particular stories, through a variety of narrative techniques, persuade readers to feel sympathy for characters who are unsympathetic in certain ways. In order to verify my claims about the impact of these stories on readers emotions, I also review the results of tests that I conducted with nearly 200 adolescent readers. Through these tests, which were constructed and scored according to methods prevalent in social psychological research, it was determined that a majority of readers felt sympathy for the protagonists in two of the stories included in the study. These results were combined with data from an additional test, a standard measure of empathy and sympathy in the field of social psychology. The cross-tabulation of these results suggests that there was not a strong connection between readers responses and their general tendencies to feel sympathy for others. This finding would appear to support my hypotheses regarding the sympathetic persuasiveness of the stories in question. In light of these results, finally, I consider the potential contribution that fiction can make to adolescent emotional and moral development and the implications of that potential for future language arts curricula in the schools. In particular, I suggest the pedagogical importance of providing adolescents with opportunities to engage with the lives of fictional characters, and especially to experience feelings of sympathy for individuals towards whom they ordinarily might feel aversion.