Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Dynamic Routing in Translucent WDM Optical Networks: The Intradomain Case

Translucent wavelength-division multiplexing optical networks use sparse placement of regenerators to overcome physical impairments and wavelength contention introduced by fully transparent networks, and achieve a performance close to fully opaque networks at a much less cost. In previous studies, we addressed the placement of regenerators based on static schemes, allowing for only a limited number of regenerators at fixed locations. This paper furthers those studies by proposing a dynamic resource allocation and dynamic routing scheme to operate translucent networks. This scheme is realized through dynamically sharing regeneration resources, including transmitters, receivers, and electronic interfaces, between regeneration and access functions under a multidomain hierarchical translucent network model. An intradomain routing algorithm, which takes into consideration optical-layer constraints as well as dynamic allocation of regeneration resources, is developed to address the problem of translucent dynamic routing in a single routing domain. Network performance in terms of blocking probability, resource utilization, and running times under different resource allocation and routing schemes is measured through simulation experiments.

Dynamic Lightpath Scheduling in Next-Generation WDM Optical Networks

Lightpath scheduling is an important capability in next-generation wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) optical networks to reserve resources in advance for a specified time period while provisioning end-to-end lightpaths. In this study, we propose an approach to support dynamic lightpath scheduling in such networks. To minimize blocking probability in a network that accommodates dynamic scheduled lightpath demands (DSLDs), resource allocation should be optimized in a dynamic manner. However, for the network users who desire deterministic services, resources must be reserved in advance and guaranteed for future use. These two objectives may be mutually incompatible. Therefore, we propose a two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach to tackle this issue. The first phase is the deterministic lightpath scheduling phase. When a lightpath request arrives, the network control plane schedules a path with guaranteed resources so that the user can get a quick response with the deterministic lightpath schedule. The second phase is the lightpath re-optimization phase, in which the network control plane re-provisions some already scheduled lightpaths. Experimental results show that our proposed two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach can greatly reduce WDM network blocking.

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Priorização de pacientes em emergências médicas: uma análise ética

Objetivo: Identificar e analisar, à luz de referencial ético, as escolhas e justificativas de profissionais de saúde pública em situações hipotéticas de priorização de pacientes em casos de limitações de recursos no atendimento de emergências médicas. Métodos: Pesquisa qualiquantitativa, mediante entrevistas com 80 profissionais de saúde pública, pós-graduandos (mestrado e doutorado) em Saúde Pública, aos quais foram apresentadas situações hipotéticas, envolvendo os critérios de sexo, idade e responsabilidade, sendo requeridos que escolhessem entre alternativas que se referiam à existência de pessoas, correndo risco igual de vida, que necessitam de atendimento em um serviço de emergência. Resultados: As escolhas priorizaram crianças, jovens, mulheres e casadas, com a tomada de decisão invocando os princípios éticos de vulnerabilidade, utilidade social e equidade. Conclusão: A pesquisa mostra clara tendência de justificativas das escolhas feitas, orientadas pela ética utilitarista.

Hurdles at work: perceptions of hospital food handlers

Abstract Background Food handlers have a very important role in preventing food contamination during its preparation and distribution. This responsibility is even greater in hospitals, since a large number of patients have low immunity and consequently food contamination by pathogenic bacteria could be particularly harmful. Therefore, a good working environment and periodic training should be provided to food handlers by upper management. Methods This study is qualitative research by means of focus group and thematic content analysis methodologies to examine, in detail, the statements by food handlers working in the milk and specific-diet kitchens in a hospital to understand the problems they face in the workplace. Results We found that food handlers are aware of the role they play in restoring patients' health; they consider it important to offer a good-quality diet. However, according to their perceptions, a number of difficulties prevent them from reaching this aim. These include: upper management not prioritizing human and material resources to the dietetic services when making resource allocation decisions; a perception that upper management considers their work to be of lesser importance; delayed overtime payments; lack of periodic training; managers lacking administrative skills; insufficient dietitian staff assistants, leading to overwork, at the same time as there is an excess of dietitians; unhealthy environmental working conditions – high temperature, high humidity, loud and constant noise level, poor ventilation; lack of food, and kitchen utensils and equipment; and relationship conflicts with chief dieticians and co-workers. Conclusion From these findings, improvement in staff motivation could be achieved by considering non-financial incentives, such as improvement in working conditions and showing appreciation and respect through supervision, training and performance appraisal. Management action, such as investments in intermediary management so that managers have the capacity to provide supportive supervision, as well as better use of performance appraisal and access to training, may help overcome the identified problems.

Efeito direto e interativo do período de avaliação sobre a orientação temporal dos gestores

O objetivo neste estudo é investigar o efeito direto e interativo do período de avaliação sobre a orientação temporal dos gestores (OTG), isto é, o horizonte de tempo entre o momento de alocação de recursos e o momento do impacto financeiro dessa alocação. Tendo por base a literatura contábil e econômica, são examinadas as seguintes hipóteses: um período de avaliação mais de longo prazo afeta positivamente a OTG e o efeito positivo de um período de avaliação mais de longo prazo sobre a OTG é maior no caso de maior importância atribuída a medidas não financeiras do que a medidas financeiras de desempenho. Aplica-se a técnica estatística de mínimos quadrados parciais (PLS) para testar as hipóteses deste estudo, sendo os dados coletados por meio de um levantamento realizado junto a 66 gestores de nível intermediário que atuam em 11 empresas. Os resultados sugerem que o período de avaliação não possui efeitos diretos sobre a OTG; no entanto, quando considerada sua interação com a medida de desempenho, os resultados indicam que o efeito do período de avaliação sobre a OTG depende da importância relativa de medidas financeiras versus não financeiras. A principal implicação desses resultados é que o uso de um período de avaliação de longo prazo em combinação com um peso maior atribuído a medidas não financeiras de desempenho não afeta positivamente a OTG; ao contrário, esse efeito positivo sobre a OTG está presente quando um período de avaliação de curto prazo está associado a menor importância de medidas não financeiras de desempenho.

Pollination ecology and reproductive success in isolated populations of flowering plants: Primula apennina Widmer, Dictamnus albus L. and Convolvulus lineatus L.

This research focuses on reproductive biology and pollination ecology of entomophilous angiosperms, with particular concern to reproductive success in small and isolated populations of species that occur at their distribution limits or are endemic. I considered three perennial herbs as model species: Primula apennina Widmer, Dictamnus albus L. and Convolvulus lineatus L. I carried out field work on natural populations and performed laboratory analyses on specific critical aspects (resource allocation, pollen viability, stigmatic receptivity, physiological self-incompatibility, seed viability), through which I analysed different aspects related to plant fitness, such as production of viable seed, demographic structure of populations, type and efficiency of plant-pollinator system, and limiting factors.

Demography in eusocial Hymenoptera

In my doctoral thesis I investigated the evolution of demographic traits within eusocial Hymenoptera. In the social bees, wasps and ants, eusociality has a unique effect on life span evolution as female larvae with the same genetic background can develop through phenotypic plasticity to a queen or a worker with vastly diverging life-history traits. Ant queens belong to the longest-lived insect species, while workers in most species live only a fraction of the queen’s life span. The average colony size of a species is positively correlated with social complexity, division of labor and diverging morphological female phenotypes all of which also affect life span. Therefore the demographic traits of interest in this thesis were life span and colony size. To understand the evolution of worker life span I applied a trade-off model that includes both hierarchical levels important in eusocial systems, namely the colony- and the individual-level. I showed that the evolution of worker life span may be an adaptive trait on the colony level to optimize resource allocation and therefore fitness in response to different levels of extrinsic mortality. A shorter worker life span as a result of reduced resource investments under high levels of extrinsic mortality increases colony fitness. In a further study I showed that Lasius niger colonies produce different aging phenotypes throughout colony development. Smaller colonies which apply a different foraging strategy than larger colonies produced smaller workers, which in turn have a longer life span as compared to larger workers produced in larger colonies. With the switch to cooperative foraging in growing colonies individual workers become less important for the colony caused by their increasing redundancy. Alternatively a trade of between growth and life span may lead to the results found in this study. A further comparative analysis to study the effect of colony size on life span showed a correlation between queen and worker life span when colony size is taken into account. While neither worker nor queen life span was associated with colony size, the differences between queen and worker life span increase with larger average colony sizes across all eusocial Hymenoptera. As colony size affects both queen and worker life span, I aimed to understand which factors lead to the small colony sizes displayed by some ant species. I therefore analyzed per-capita productivity at different colony sizes of eight cavity dwelling ant species. Most colonies of the study species grew larger than optimal productivity predicted. Larger colony size was shown to increase colony homeostasis, the predictability of future productivity and in turn the survival probability of the colony. I also showed that species that deploy an individual foraging mode may circumvent the density dependent decline in foraging success by splitting the colony to several nest sites.

Physiological Ecology and Reproductive Effort in a Migratory Seabird

Fluctuations of food availability, habitat quality, and environmental conditions throughout the year have been implicated in the breeding success and survival of migratory birds. Levels of circulating corticosterone, the hormone involved in energy balance and the stress response in birds, are also affected by fluctuations in these variables, and also play a role in self-maintenance and survival. In addition to changes in behaviors and resource allocation, the metabolic effects of corticosterone increase the amount of free radicals in the body, which can cause oxidative stress and damage lipids and DNA. In this thesis, I assessed if diet and physiology during the breeding and non-breeding seasons contributed to the reproductive success, survival, and oxidative stress of a long-lived migratory seabird, Leach’s storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa). I tested the hypotheses that 1.) diet and physiology throughout the breeding and non-breeding seasons predict reproductive effort; and 2.) corticosterone affects telomere length, a measure of oxidative damage. Through analyses of stable isotopes, corticosterone, and antioxidant capacity, I found that although there was variation in these measures of diet and physiology within the population, none of these factors during the breeding or non-breeding seasons correlated with reproductive effort or success. I also found that feather and plasma corticosterone did not predict telomere length. The life history strategies of Leach’s storm-petrels appear to be complex, and many factors likely contribute to self-maintenance and the decision to breed. Long-term monitoring of these variables may help identify relationships between trends in oceanographic variables during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons with reproductive effort and success, and survival.

Analysis of patient flows for orthopedic procedures using small area analysis in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: In general cantons regulate and control the Swiss health service system; patient flows within and between cantons are thereby partially disregarded. This paper develops an alternative spatial model, based upon the construction of orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAOs), and introduces indices for the analysis of patient streams in order to identify areas, irrespective of canton, with diverse characteristics, importance, needs, or demands. METHODS: HSAOs were constructed using orthopedic discharge data. Patient streams between the HSAOs were analysed by calculating three indices: the localization index (% local residents discharged locally), the netindex (the ratio of discharges of nonlocal incoming residents to outgoing local residents), and the market share index (% of local resident discharges of all discharges in local hospitals). RESULTS: The 85 orthopedic HSAOs show a median localization index of 60.8%, a market share index of 75.1%, and 30% of HSAOs have a positive netindex. Insurance class of bed, admission type, and patient age are partially but significantly associated with those indicators. A trend to more centrally provided health services can be observed not only in large urban HSAOs such as Geneva, Bern, Basel, and Zurich, but also in HSAOs in mountain sport areas such as Sion, Davos, or St.Moritz. Furthermore, elderly and emergency patients are more frequently treated locally than younger people or those having elective procedures. CONCLUSION: The division of Switzerland into HSAOs provides an alternative spatial model for analysing and describing patient streams for health service utilization. Because this small area model allows more in-depth analysis of patient streams both within and between cantons, it may improve support and planning of resource allocation of in-patient care in the Swiss healthcare system.

Multi-antenna non-line-of-sight identification techniques for target localization in mobile ad-hoc networks

Target localization has a wide range of military and civilian applications in wireless mobile networks. Examples include battle-field surveillance, emergency 911 (E911), traffc alert, habitat monitoring, resource allocation, routing, and disaster mitigation. Basic localization techniques include time-of-arrival (TOA), direction-of-arrival (DOA) and received-signal strength (RSS) estimation. Techniques that are proposed based on TOA and DOA are very sensitive to the availability of Line-of-sight (LOS) which is the direct path between the transmitter and the receiver. If LOS is not available, TOA and DOA estimation errors create a large localization error. In order to reduce NLOS localization error, NLOS identifcation, mitigation, and localization techniques have been proposed. This research investigates NLOS identifcation for multiple antennas radio systems. The techniques proposed in the literature mainly use one antenna element to enable NLOS identifcation. When a single antenna is utilized, limited features of the wireless channel can be exploited to identify NLOS situations. However, in DOA-based wireless localization systems, multiple antenna elements are available. In addition, multiple antenna technology has been adopted in many widely used wireless systems such as wireless LAN 802.11n and WiMAX 802.16e which are good candidates for localization based services. In this work, the potential of spatial channel information for high performance NLOS identifcation is investigated. Considering narrowband multiple antenna wireless systems, two xvNLOS identifcation techniques are proposed. Here, the implementation of spatial correlation of channel coeffcients across antenna elements as a metric for NLOS identifcation is proposed. In order to obtain the spatial correlation, a new multi-input multi-output (MIMO) channel model based on rough surface theory is proposed. This model can be used to compute the spatial correlation between the antenna pair separated by any distance. In addition, a new NLOS identifcation technique that exploits the statistics of phase difference across two antenna elements is proposed. This technique assumes the phases received across two antenna elements are uncorrelated. This assumption is validated based on the well-known circular and elliptic scattering models. Next, it is proved that the channel Rician K-factor is a function of the phase difference variance. Exploiting Rician K-factor, techniques to identify NLOS scenarios are proposed. Considering wideband multiple antenna wireless systems which use MIMO-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signaling, space-time-frequency channel correlation is exploited to attain NLOS identifcation in time-varying, frequency-selective and spaceselective radio channels. Novel NLOS identi?cation measures based on space, time and frequency channel correlation are proposed and their performances are evaluated. These measures represent a better NLOS identifcation performance compared to those that only use space, time or frequency.

Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.

Optimal Scheduling of Work-Content-Constrained Projects

The execution of a project requires resources that are generally scarce. Classical approaches to resource allocation assume that the usage of these resources by an individual project activity is constant during the execution of that activity; in practice, however, the project manager may vary resource usage over time within prescribed bounds. This variation gives rise to the project scheduling problem which consists in allocating the scarce resources to the project activities over time such that the project duration is minimized, the total number of resource units allocated equals the prescribed work content of each activity, and various work-content-related constraints are met. We formulate this problem for the first time as a mixed-integer linear program. Our computational results for a standard test set from the literature indicate that this model outperforms the state-of-the-art solution methods for this problem.

Traffic-Adaptive and Link-Quality-Aware Communication in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper is a summary of the main contribu- tions of the PhD thesis published in [1]. The main research contributions of the thesis are driven by the research question how to design simple, yet efficient and robust run-time adaptive resource allocation schemes within the commu- nication stack of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) nodes. The thesis addresses several problem domains with con- tributions on different layers of the WSN communication stack. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: First, a a novel run-time adaptive MAC protocol is intro- duced, which stepwise allocates the power-hungry radio interface in an on-demand manner when the encountered traffic load requires it. Second, the thesis outlines a metho- dology for robust, reliable and accurate software-based energy-estimation, which is calculated at network run- time on the sensor node itself. Third, the thesis evaluates several Forward Error Correction (FEC) strategies to adap- tively allocate the correctional power of Error Correcting Codes (ECCs) to cope with timely and spatially variable bit error rates. Fourth, in the context of TCP-based communi- cations in WSNs, the thesis evaluates distributed caching and local retransmission strategies to overcome the perfor- mance degrading effects of packet corruption and trans- mission failures when transmitting data over multiple hops. The performance of all developed protocols are eval- uated on a self-developed real-world WSN testbed and achieve superior performance over selected existing ap- proaches, especially where traffic load and channel condi- tions are suspect to rapid variations over time.