805 resultados para GRANGER CAUSALITY
Resumo:
A number of recent investigations in man have demonstrated that a low ratio of fat to carbohydrate oxidation (i.e., a high respiratory quotient or RQ) was associated with actual and/or subsequent body weight gain in obese non-diabetic Pima Indians, in American men of various ages and in post-obese European women investigated shortly after the cessation of a hypocaloric diet. It is well known that numerous exogenous and endogenous factors influence the RQ at rest such as: the level of feeding (positive vs. negative energy balance), the composition of food eaten (high vs. low carbohydrate), the size of the glycogen stores, the amount of adipose tissue as well as genetic factors. It should be stressed that some nutritional situations can co-exist during which a low ratio of fat to carbohydrate is observed (i.e., a high RQ) despite weight loss. Furthermore, in most studies mentioned above, the low fat to carbohydrate oxidation ratio explains less than 10% of the variance in weight gain, suggesting that numerous additional factors also play a substantial role in the onset of weight gain. It is concluded that: 1) a low fat to carbohydrate oxidation ratio or an abnormal fat oxidation is difficult to define quantitatively since it is largely influenced by the energy level and the composition of the diet.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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Main pharmacovigilance signals and alerts issued in 2009 are reviewed. Efalizumab was withdrawn from the market due to increased risks, including progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) and questionable efficacy. New cases of PML are still being reported with rituximab and natalizumab. Rare cases of pure red cell aplasia have been observed with mycophenate. Gastrointestinal perforation, severe skin rashes and various ocular disorders have been reported during erlotinib use. Severe skin rashes have been related to etravirine. Acute renal failure and pancreatitis can occur with exenatide. A link between sitagliptin and pancreatitis is suspected. Raised concerns of causality between insuline glargine and malignant tumors are not supported by strong evidence. Proton pump inhibitors seem to blunt clopidogrel benefit. Aliskiren can cause angioedema.
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We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine dataon environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry levelto show that countries with laxer environmental regulation have a comparative advantage in polluting industries. Further, we address the potential problem of reverse causality. We propose aninstrument for environmental regulation based on meteorological determinants of pollution dispersion identified by the atmospheric pollution literature. We find that the effect of environmentalregulation on the pattern of trade is causal and comparable in magnitude to the effect of physicaland human capital.
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In order to have references for discussing mathematical menus in political science, Ireview the most common types of mathematical formulae used in physics andchemistry, as well as some mathematical advances in economics. Several issues appearrelevant: variables should be well defined and measurable; the relationships betweenvariables may be non-linear; the direction of causality should be clearly identified andnot assumed on a priori grounds. On these bases, theoretically-driven equations onpolitical matters can be validated by empirical tests and can predict observablephenomena.
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Nesta tese analisa-se a Despesa do Sector Público Administrativo Cabo-verdiano dos últimos 20 anos. A conclusão da análise descritiva segundo diferentes ópticas aponta para um ritmo de crescimento médio do Orçamento de Investimento superior ao do Funcionamento, prevalecendo este em termos estruturais. Os determinantes explicativos da tendência evolutiva foram as rubricas pessoal e operações financeiras e os principais consumidores os ministérios da Educação e da Saúde. Os governos priorizaram as funções redistributivas e de afectação e canalizaram o investimento público para impulsionar as actividades privadas. A modelização econométrica sugeriu que a taxa de variação da despesa pública foi influenciada negativamente pelas eleições, alternância governativa e taxa de variação da receita e positivamente pelas taxas de crescimento do investimento e do Produto. O teste de causalidade à Granger entre a variável de interesse e o crescimento económico indiciou a rejeição da lei de Wagner para Cabo Verde.
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Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.
Projectos Futuros e Atitudes Vocacionais dos Alunos do 9º ano de uma Escola Secundária de Cabo Verde
Resumo:
As escolhas vocacionais são momentos importantes no ciclo do desenvolvimento humano, sendo particularmente relevantes as que ocorrem ainda na adolescência. Em Cabo Verde são escassos os estudos sobre o desenvolvimento vocacional e os projectos vocacionais dos jovens cabo-verdianos. O presente estudo tem como objectivo analisar as atitudes vocacionais e a construção de projectos futuros de adolescentes. Para tal, foram inqueridos 100 alunos de 9º ano de escolaridade de uma escola secundária de Cabo Verde, dos quais 45 são rapazes e 55 raparigas. Esses alunos responderam o questionário sociodemográfico, o Inventário de Desenvolvimento de Carreira, a Escala de Atribuição para Carreira e uma versão adaptada do Inventário de Percepção de Barreira na Carreira. Os resultados mostraram que a maioria dos participantes apresenta projectos, variando no grau de especificação. As raparigas foram mais específicas nos seus projectos. Nas atitudes de planeamento e exploração vocacional as diferenças de género não foram significativas. A análise das crenças atribucionais para a carreira permitiu observar diferenças mais significativas de género, na subescala causalidade interna associado ao fracasso, diferença esta, favorável aos rapazes. Nas percepções de barreiras, a diferença mais significava entre raparigas e rapazes verificaram-se na variável: restrição de oportunidades. Por fim, discute-se a importância da orientação vocacional e apresenta as limitações e implicações do estudo.
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Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.
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We study the impact of university-industry research collaborations on academicoutput, in terms of productivity and direction of research. We report findings froma longitudinal dataset on all the researchers from the engineering departments inthe UK in the last 20 years. We control for the endogeneity caused by the dynamicnature of research and the existence of reverse causality. Our results indicate thatresearchers with industrial links publish significantly more. Productivity, though,is higher for low levels of industry involvement. Moreover, growing ties with theindustry skew research towards a more applied approach.
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BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.
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The identification of associations between interleukin-28B (IL-28B) variants and the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) raises the issues of causality and the net contribution of host genetics to the trait. To estimate more precisely the net effect of IL-28B genetic variation on HCV clearance, we optimized genotyping and compared the host contributions in multiple- and single-source cohorts to control for viral and demographic effects. The analysis included individuals with chronic or spontaneously cleared HCV infections from a multiple-source cohort (n = 389) and a single-source cohort (n = 71). We performed detailed genotyping in the coding region of IL-28B and searched for copy number variations to identify the genetic variant or haplotype carrying the strongest association with viral clearance. This analysis was used to compare the effects of IL-28B variation in the two cohorts. Haplotypes characterized by carriage of the major alleles at IL-28B single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were highly overrepresented in individuals with spontaneous clearance versus those with chronic HCV infections (66.1% versus 38.6%, P = 6 × 10(-9) ). The odds ratios for clearance were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.0] and 3.9 (95% CI = 1.5-10.2) in the multiple- and single-source cohorts, respectively. Protective haplotypes were in perfect linkage (r(2) = 1.0) with a nonsynonymous coding variant (rs8103142). Copy number variants were not detected. We identified IL-28B haplotypes highly predictive of spontaneous HCV clearance. The high linkage disequilibrium between IL-28B SNPs indicates that association studies need to be complemented by functional experiments to identify single causal variants. The point estimate for the genetic effect was higher in the single-source cohort, which was used to effectively control for viral diversity, sex, and coinfections and, therefore, offered a precise estimate of the net host genetic contribution.
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BACKGROUND: Open lung biopsy (OLB) is helpful in the management of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of unknown etiology. We determine the impact of surgical lung biopsies performed at the bedside on the management of patients with ARDS. METHODS: We reviewed all consecutive cases of patients with ARDS who underwent a surgical OLB at the bedside in a medical intensive care unit between 1993 and 2005. RESULTS: Biopsies were performed in 19 patients mechanically ventilated for ARDS of unknown etiology despite extensive diagnostic process and empirical therapeutic trials. Among them, 17 (89%) were immunocompromised and 10 patients experienced hematological malignancies. Surgical biopsies were obtained after a median (25%-75%) mechanical ventilation of 5 (2-11) days; mean (+/-SD) Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio was 119.3 (+/-34.2) mm Hg. Histologic diagnoses were obtained in all cases and were specific in 13 patients (68%), including 9 (47%) not previously suspected. Immediate complications (26%) were local (pneumothorax, minimal bleeding) without general or respiratory consequences. The biopsy resulted in major changes in management in 17 patients (89%). It contributed to a decision to limit care in 12 of 17 patients who died. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm that surgical OLB may have an important impact on the management of patients with ARDS of unknown etiology after extensive diagnostic process. The procedure can be performed at the bedside, is safe, and has a high diagnostic yield leading to major changes in management, including withdrawal of vital support, in the majority of patients.
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QUESTION UNDER STUDY: The frequency of severe adverse drug reactions (ADRs) from psychotropic drugs was investigated in hospitalised psychiatric patients in relation to their age. Specifically, the incidence of ADRs in patients up to 60 years was compared to that of patients older than 60 years. METHODS: Prescription rates of psychotropic drugs and reports of severe ADRs were collected in psychiatric hospitals in Switzerland between 2001 and 2010. The data stem from the drug surveillance programme AMSP. RESULTS: A total of 699 patients exhibited severe ADRs: 517 out of 28,282 patients up to 60 years (1.8%); 182 out of 11,446 elderly patients (1.6%, ns). Logistic regression analyses showed a significantly negative relationship between the incidence of ADRs and patients' age in general and in particular for weight gain, extrapyramidal motor system (EPMS) symptoms, increased liver enzymes and galactorrhoea. A significantly negative relationship was observed for age and the dosages of olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, valproic acid and lamotrigine. When comparing age groups, frequency of ADRs was lower in general for antipsychotic drugs and anticonvulsants, in particular for valproic acid in the elderly. Weight gain was found to be lower in the elderly for antipsychotic drugs, in particular for olanzapine. For the group of mood-stabilising anticonvulsants (carbamazepine, lamotrigine and valproic acid) the elderly exhibited a lower incidence of reported allergic skin reactions. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that for psychiatric inpatients the incidence of common severe ADRs (e.g., weight gain or EPMS symptoms) arising from psychotropic medication decreases with the age of patients.
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Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.
Resumo:
Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.