Federal Dynamics in Times of Economic and Financial Crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent-seeking in equalisation payments, and over-borrowing and over-spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent-seeking and over-borrowing and over-spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased - although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.

Religion in Times of Crisis

Religion is alive and well all over the world, especially in times of personal, political, and social crisis. Even in Europe, long regarded the most "secular" continent, religion has taken centre stage in how people respond to the crises associated with modernity, or how they interact with the nation-state. In this book, scholars working in and on Europe offer fresh perspectives on how religion provides answers to existential crisis, how crisis increases the salience of religious identities and cultural polarization, and how religion is contributing to changes in the modern world in Europe and beyond. Cases from Poland to Pakistan and from Ireland to Zimbabwe, among others, demonstrate the complexity and ambivalence of religion's role in the contemporary world.

The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Unidirectional quantum walks: Evolution and exit times

In this paper we focus our attention on a particle that follows a unidirectional quantum walk, an alternative version of the currently widespread discrete-time quantum walk on a line. Here the walker at each time step can either remain in place or move in a fixed direction, e.g., rightward or upward. While both formulations are essentially equivalent, the present approach leads us to consider discrete Fourier transforms, which eventually results in obtaining explicit expressions for the wave functions in terms of finite sums and allows the use of efficient algorithms based on the fast Fourier transform. The wave functions here obtained govern the probability of finding the particle at any given location but determine as well the exit-time probability of the walker from a fixed interval, which is also analyzed.

Young people and youth policies in Spain in times of austerity: between juggling and the trapeze

The aim of this article is to present and discuss the situation regarding young people and youth policy in Spain via the parameters of the magic triangle linking policy, research and action: (1) the situation of young people in Spain today -some indicators are highlighted regarding the main challenges and opportunities for young people, with references to the so-called"Ni-Nis" (neither studying nor working)- and the movement of the"outraged" youth that occupied the streets of Spain"s major cities in May 2011; (2) the current approaches adopted by public youth policies in Spain and limitations and difficulties encountered by the government in attempting to meet the demands of young people; (3) social work with young people and professionals involved in youth policies. In the last section, we conclude with some open questions and proposals for the immediate future

Language extinction and linguistic fronts

Language diversity has become greatly endangered in the past centuries owing to processes of language shift from indigenous languages to other languages that are seen as socially and economically more advantageous, resulting in the death or doom of minority languages. In this paper, we define a new language competition model that can describe the historical decline of minority languages in competition with more advantageous languages. We then implement this non-spatial model as an interaction term in a reactiondiffusion system to model the evolution of the two competing languages. We use the results to estimate the speed at which the more advantageous language spreads geographically, resulting in the shrinkage of the area of dominance of the minority language. We compare the results from our model with the observed retreat in the area of influence of the Welsh language in the UK, obtaining a good agreement between the model and the observed data

How to Model Heterogeneity in Costly Punishment: Insights from Responders' Response Times

We investigate what processes may underlie heterogeneity in social preferences. We address this question by examining participants' decisions and associated response times across 12 mini-ultimatum games. Using a finite mixture model and cross-validating its classification with a response time analysis, we identified four groups of responders: one group takes little to no account of the proposed split or the foregone allocation and swiftly accepts any positive offer; two groups process primarily the objective properties of the allocations (fairness and kindness) and need more time the more properties need to be examined; and a fourth group, which takes more time than the others, appears to take into account what they would have proposed had they been put in the role of the proposer. We discuss implications of this joint decision-response time analysis.