Casualties distribution in human and natural hazards

Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, big tornadoes and hurricanes, huge earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties have separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data set is better approximated by two PLs instead of one. We have plotted the two PL parameters corresponding to all terrorist events occurred in every year, from 1980 to 2010. We observe an interesting pattern in the chart, where the lines, that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs, are roughly aligned to each other.

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.

Estratégias de Comercialização de Potência como Medida de Eficiência Energética

A presente dissertação insere-se no âmbito da unidade curricular “ Dissertação” do 2º ano do mestrado em Engenharia Eletrotécnica – Sistemas Elétricos de Energia. Com o aumento crescente do número de consumidores de energia, é cada vez mais imperioso a adoção de medidas de racionalização e gestão dos consumos da energia elétrica. Existem diferentes tipos de dificuldades no planeamento e implementação de novas centrais produtoras de energia renovável, pelo que também por este motivo é cada vez mais importante adoção de medidas de gestão de consumos, quer ao nível dos clientes alimentados em média tensão como de baixa tensão. Desta forma será mais acessível a criação de padrões de eficiência energética elevados em toda a rede de distribuição de energia elétrica. Também a economia é afetada por uma fraca gestão dos consumos por parte dos clientes. Elevados desperdícios energéticos levam a que mais energia tenha que ser produzida, energia essa que contribui ainda mais para a elevada taxa de dependência energética em Portugal, e para o degradar da economia nacional. Coloca-se assim a necessidade de implementar planos e métodos que promovam a eficiência energética e a gestão racional de consumos de energia elétrica. Apresenta-se nesta dissertação várias propostas, algumas na forma de projetos já em execução, que visam sensibilizar o consumidor para a importância da utilização eficiente de energia e, ao mesmo tempo, disponibilizam as ferramentas tecnológicas adequadas para auxiliar a implementação dos métodos propostos. Embora os planos apresentados, sobejamente conhecidos, tenham imensa importância, a implementação nos vários consumidores de sistemas capazes de efetivamente reduzir consumos tem um papel fundamental. Equipamentos de gestão de consumos, que são apresentados nesta dissertação, permitem ao consumidor aceder diretamente ao seu consumo. Podem aceder não apenas ao consumo global da instalação mas também ao consumo específico por equipamento, permitindo perceber onde se verifica a situação mais desfavorável. Funcionalidades de programação de perfis tipo, com limitações de potência em vários períodos horários, bem como possibilidades de controlo remoto com recurso a aplicações para Smartphones permitem a redução de consumos ao nível da rede de distribuição e, desta forma, contribuir para a redução dos desperdícios e da dependência energética em Portugal. No âmbito do trabalho de dissertação é desenvolvida uma metodologia de comercialização de potência, que é apresentada nesta tese. Esta metodologia propõem que o consumidor, em função dos seus consumos, pague apenas a quantidade de potência que efetivamente necessita num certo período de tempo. Assim, o consumidor deixa de pagar uma tarifa mensal fixa associada á sua potência contratada, e passará a pagar um valor correspondente apenas à potência que efetivamente solicitou em todas as horas durante o mês. Nesta metodologia que é apresentada, o consumidor poderá também fazer uma análise do seu diagrama de cargas e simular uma alteração da sua tarifa, tarifa esta que varia entre tarifa simples, bi-horária semanal, bi-horária diária, tri-horária semanal ou tri-horária diária, de forma a perceber em qual destas pagará um menor valor pela mesma energia. De forma a que o consumidor possa perceber se haverá vantagem de uma alteração para uma potência contratada flexível, ou para uma outra tarifa associada á energia, tem ao seu dispor uma ferramenta, que em função dos seus consumos, permite retirar conclusões sobre o preço final a pagar na fatura, após cada tipo de alteração. Esta ferramenta foi validada com recurso a várias simulações, para diferentes perfis de consumidores. Desta forma, o utilizador fica a perceber que realmente pode poupar com uma potência contratada flexível, ao mesmo tempo que pode identificar-se com um perfil de simulação e, mais facilmente, perceber para que alteração tarifária pode usufruir de uma maior poupança.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Modification of the Perrine-Baum diagram to improve the calculation of high voltage electric lines

Through the history of Electrical Engineering education, vectorial and phasorial diagrams have been used as a fundamental learning tool. At present, computational power has replaced them by long data lists, the result of solving equation systems by means of numerical methods. In this sense, diagrams have been shifted to an academic background and although theoretically explained, they are not used in a practical way within specific examples. This fact may be against the understanding of the complex behavior of the electrical power systems by students. This article proposes a modification of the classical Perrine-Baum diagram construction to allowing both a more practical representation and a better understanding of the behavior of a high-voltage electric line under different levels of load. This modification allows, at the same time, the forecast of the obsolescence of this behavior and line’s loading capacity. Complementary, we evaluate the impact of this tool in the learning process showing comparative undergraduate results during three academic years

Grounding in a wind power application

The subject of this master’s thesis is to research grounding in a particular wind power application. The aim is to define how the grounding from different points effects to the function of the whole system. The investigated subjects are generator voltage spikes, ground currents and system fault situations. The first part of this thesis represents power electronics, which is commonly used in wind power systems. The second part concentrates more to the grounding, electrical safety demands and potential fault situations. The object of the simulations is to investigate voltage spikes and fault situations. Measurements will be made with small-scale setup and in the last part simulation and measurement results are compared to each other and to a full-scale system.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

Working fluid selection and design of small-scale waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles

Demand for the use of energy systems, entailing high efficiency as well as availability to harness renewable energy sources, is a key issue in order to tackling the threat of global warming and saving natural resources. Organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology has been identified as one of the most promising technologies in recovering low-grade heat sources and in harnessing renewable energy sources that cannot be efficiently utilized by means of more conventional power systems. The ORC is based on the working principle of Rankine process, but an organic working fluid is adopted in the cycle instead of steam. This thesis presents numerical and experimental results of the study on the design of small-scale ORCs. Two main applications were selected for the thesis: waste heat re- covery from small-scale diesel engines concentrating on the utilization of the exhaust gas heat and waste heat recovery in large industrial-scale engine power plants considering the utilization of both the high and low temperature heat sources. The main objective of this work was to identify suitable working fluid candidates and to study the process and turbine design methods that can be applied when power plants based on the use of non-conventional working fluids are considered. The computational work included the use of thermodynamic analysis methods and turbine design methods that were based on the use of highly accurate fluid properties. In addition, the design and loss mechanisms in supersonic ORC turbines were studied by means of computational fluid dynamics. The results indicated that the design of ORC is highly influenced by the selection of the working fluid and cycle operational conditions. The results for the turbine designs in- dicated that the working fluid selection should not be based only on the thermodynamic analysis, but requires also considerations on the turbine design. The turbines tend to be fast rotating, entailing small blade heights at the turbine rotor inlet and highly supersonic flow in the turbine flow passages, especially when power systems with low power outputs are designed. The results indicated that the ORC is a potential solution in utilizing waste heat streams both at high and low temperatures and both in micro and larger scale appli- cations.

Impacts of increased levels of wind penetration on the Electric Power System of the Åland Islands

The application of VSC-HVDC technology throughout the world has turned out to be an efficient solution regarding a large share of wind power in different power systems. This technology enhances the overall reliability of the grid by utilization of the active and reactive power control schemes which allows to maintain frequency and voltage on busbars of the end-consumers at the required level stated by the network operator. This master’s thesis is focused on the existing and planned wind farms as well as electric power system of the Åland Islands. The goal is to analyze the wind conditions of the islands and appropriately predict a possible production of the existing and planned wind farms with a help of WAsP software program. Further, to investigate the influence of increased wind power it is necessary to develop a simulation model of the electric grid and VSC-HVDC system in PSCAD and examine grid response to different wind power production cases with respect to the grid code requirements and ensure the stability of the power system.

Reinforcement Learning Approaches to Power System Scheduling

One major component of power system operation is generation scheduling. The objective of the work is to develop efficient control strategies to the power scheduling problems through Reinforcement Learning approaches. The three important active power scheduling problems are Unit Commitment, Economic Dispatch and Automatic Generation Control. Numerical solution methods proposed for solution of power scheduling are insufficient in handling large and complex systems. Soft Computing methods like Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Programming etc., are efficient in handling complex cost functions, but find limitation in handling stochastic data existing in a practical system. Also the learning steps are to be repeated for each load demand which increases the computation time.Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a method of learning through interactions with environment. The main advantage of this approach is it does not require a precise mathematical formulation. It can learn either by interacting with the environment or interacting with a simulation model. Several optimization and control problems have been solved through Reinforcement Learning approach. The application of Reinforcement Learning in the field of Power system has been a few. The objective is to introduce and extend Reinforcement Learning approaches for the active power scheduling problems in an implementable manner. The main objectives can be enumerated as:(i) Evolve Reinforcement Learning based solutions to the Unit Commitment Problem.(ii) Find suitable solution strategies through Reinforcement Learning approach for Economic Dispatch. (iii) Extend the Reinforcement Learning solution to Automatic Generation Control with a different perspective. (iv) Check the suitability of the scheduling solutions to one of the existing power systems.First part of the thesis is concerned with the Reinforcement Learning approach to Unit Commitment problem. Unit Commitment Problem is formulated as a multi stage decision process. Q learning solution is developed to obtain the optimwn commitment schedule. Method of state aggregation is used to formulate an efficient solution considering the minimwn up time I down time constraints. The performance of the algorithms are evaluated for different systems and compared with other stochastic methods like Genetic Algorithm.Second stage of the work is concerned with solving Economic Dispatch problem. A simple and straight forward decision making strategy is first proposed in the Learning Automata algorithm. Then to solve the scheduling task of systems with large number of generating units, the problem is formulated as a multi stage decision making task. The solution obtained is extended in order to incorporate the transmission losses in the system. To make the Reinforcement Learning solution more efficient and to handle continuous state space, a fimction approximation strategy is proposed. The performance of the developed algorithms are tested for several standard test cases. Proposed method is compared with other recent methods like Partition Approach Algorithm, Simulated Annealing etc.As the final step of implementing the active power control loops in power system, Automatic Generation Control is also taken into consideration.Reinforcement Learning has already been applied to solve Automatic Generation Control loop. The RL solution is extended to take up the approach of common frequency for all the interconnected areas, more similar to practical systems. Performance of the RL controller is also compared with that of the conventional integral controller.In order to prove the suitability of the proposed methods to practical systems, second plant ofNeyveli Thennal Power Station (NTPS IT) is taken for case study. The perfonnance of the Reinforcement Learning solution is found to be better than the other existing methods, which provide the promising step towards RL based control schemes for practical power industry.Reinforcement Learning is applied to solve the scheduling problems in the power industry and found to give satisfactory perfonnance. Proposed solution provides a scope for getting more profit as the economic schedule is obtained instantaneously. Since Reinforcement Learning method can take the stochastic cost data obtained time to time from a plant, it gives an implementable method. As a further step, with suitable methods to interface with on line data, economic scheduling can be achieved instantaneously in a generation control center. Also power scheduling of systems with different sources such as hydro, thermal etc. can be looked into and Reinforcement Learning solutions can be achieved.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems: Heat Transfer Issues and Trends

Almost 450 nuclear power plants are currently operating throughout the world and supplying about 17% of the world’s electricity. These plants perform safely, reliably, and have no free-release of byproducts to the environment. Given the current rate of growth in electricity demand and the ever growing concerns for the environment, the US consumer will favor energy sources that can satisfy the need for electricity and other energy-intensive products (1) on a sustainable basis with minimal environmental impact, (2) with enhanced reliability and safety and (3) competitive economics. Given that advances are made to fully apply the potential benefits of nuclear energy systems, the next generation of nuclear systems can provide a vital part of a long-term, diversified energy supply. The Department of Energy has begun research on such a new generation of nuclear energy systems that can be made available to the market by 2030 or earlier, and that can offer significant advances toward these challenging goals [1]. These future nuclear power systems will require advances in materials, reactor physics as well as heat transfer to realize their full potential. In this paper, a summary of these advanced nuclear power systems is presented along with a short synopsis of the important heat transfer issues. Given the nature of research and the dynamics of these conceptual designs, key aspects of the physics will be provided, with details left for the presentation.

Localización de faltas en sistemas de distribución de energía eléctrica usando métodos basados en el modelo y métodos basados en el conocimiento

La calidad de energía eléctrica incluye la calidad del suministro y la calidad de la atención al cliente. La calidad del suministro a su vez se considera que la conforman dos partes, la forma de onda y la continuidad. En esta tesis se aborda la continuidad del suministro a través de la localización de faltas. Este problema se encuentra relativamente resuelto en los sistemas de transmisión, donde por las características homogéneas de la línea, la medición en ambos terminales y la disponibilidad de diversos equipos, se puede localizar el sitio de falta con una precisión relativamente alta. En sistemas de distribución, sin embargo, la localización de faltas es un problema complejo y aún no resuelto. La complejidad es debida principalmente a la presencia de conductores no homogéneos, cargas intermedias, derivaciones laterales y desbalances en el sistema y la carga. Además, normalmente, en estos sistemas sólo se cuenta con medidas en la subestación, y un modelo simplificado del circuito. Los principales esfuerzos en la localización han estado orientados al desarrollo de métodos que utilicen el fundamental de la tensión y de la corriente en la subestación, para estimar la reactancia hasta la falta. Como la obtención de la reactancia permite cuantificar la distancia al sitio de falta a partir del uso del modelo, el Método se considera Basado en el Modelo (MBM). Sin embargo, algunas de sus desventajas están asociadas a la necesidad de un buen modelo del sistema y a la posibilidad de localizar varios sitios donde puede haber ocurrido la falta, esto es, se puede presentar múltiple estimación del sitio de falta. Como aporte, en esta tesis se presenta un análisis y prueba comparativa entre varios de los MBM frecuentemente referenciados. Adicionalmente se complementa la solución con métodos que utilizan otro tipo de información, como la obtenida de las bases históricas de faltas con registros de tensión y corriente medidos en la subestación (no se limita solamente al fundamental). Como herramienta de extracción de información de estos registros, se utilizan y prueban dos técnicas de clasificación (LAMDA y SVM). Éstas relacionan las características obtenidas de la señal, con la zona bajo falta y se denominan en este documento como Métodos de Clasificación Basados en el Conocimiento (MCBC). La información que usan los MCBC se obtiene de los registros de tensión y de corriente medidos en la subestación de distribución, antes, durante y después de la falta. Los registros se procesan para obtener los siguientes descriptores: a) la magnitud de la variación de tensión ( dV ), b) la variación de la magnitud de corriente ( dI ), c) la variación de la potencia ( dS ), d) la reactancia de falta ( Xf ), e) la frecuencia del transitorio ( f ), y f) el valor propio máximo de la matriz de correlación de corrientes (Sv), cada uno de los cuales ha sido seleccionado por facilitar la localización de la falta. A partir de estos descriptores, se proponen diferentes conjuntos de entrenamiento y validación de los MCBC, y mediante una metodología que muestra la posibilidad de hallar relaciones entre estos conjuntos y las zonas en las cuales se presenta la falta, se seleccionan los de mejor comportamiento. Los resultados de aplicación, demuestran que con la combinación de los MCBC con los MBM, se puede reducir el problema de la múltiple estimación del sitio de falta. El MCBC determina la zona de falta, mientras que el MBM encuentra la distancia desde el punto de medida hasta la falta, la integración en un esquema híbrido toma las mejores características de cada método. En este documento, lo que se conoce como híbrido es la combinación de los MBM y los MCBC, de una forma complementaria. Finalmente y para comprobar los aportes de esta tesis, se propone y prueba un esquema de integración híbrida para localización de faltas en dos sistemas de distribución diferentes. Tanto los métodos que usan los parámetros del sistema y se fundamentan en la estimación de la impedancia (MBM), como aquellos que usan como información los descriptores y se fundamentan en técnicas de clasificación (MCBC), muestran su validez para resolver el problema de localización de faltas. Ambas metodologías propuestas tienen ventajas y desventajas, pero según la teoría de integración de métodos presentada, se alcanza una alta complementariedad, que permite la formulación de híbridos que mejoran los resultados, reduciendo o evitando el problema de la múltiple estimación de la falta.

Landscape typology in the Mediterranean context: a tool for habitat restoration

Despite the wide use of Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) as a tool for landscape planning in NW Europe, there are few examples of its application in the Mediterranean. This paper reports on the results from the development of a typology for LCA in a study area of northern Sardinia, Italy to provide a spatial framework for the analysis of current patterns of cork oak distribution and future restoration of this habitat. Landscape units were derived from a visual interpretation of map data stored within a GIS describing the physical and cultural characteristics of the study area. The units were subsequently grouped into Landscape Types according to the similarity of shared attributes using Two Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN). The preliminary results showed that the methodology classified distinct Landscape Types but, based on field observations, there is a need for further refinement of the classification. The distribution and properties of two main cork oak habitats types was examined within the identified Landscape Types namely woodlands and wood pastures using Patch Analyst. The results show very clearly a correspondence between the distribution of cork oak pastures and cork oak woodland and landscape types. This forms the basis of the development of strategies for the maintenance, restoration and recreation of these habitat types within the study area, ultimately for the whole island of Sardinia. Future work is required to improve the landscape characterisation , particularly with respect to cultural factors, and to determine the validity of the landscape spatial framework for the analysis of cork oak distribution as part of a programme of habitat restoration and re-creation.