Probability based data analysis for road asset management

Road agencies require comprehensive, relevan and quality data describing their road assets to support their investment decisions. An investment decision support system for raod maintenance and rehabilitation mainly comprise three important supporting elements namely: road asset data, decision support tools and criteria for decision-making. Probability-based methods have played a crucial role in helping decision makers understand the relationship among road related data, asset performance and uncertainties in estimating budgets/costs for road management investment. This paper presents applications of the probability-bsed method for road asset management.

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Theory and development of GPS integrity monitoring system

This thesis discusses various aspects of the integrity monitoring of GPS applied to civil aircraft navigation in different phases of flight. These flight phases include en route, terminal, non-precision approach and precision approach. The thesis includes four major topics: probability problem of GPS navigation service, risk analysis of aircraft precision approach and landing, theoretical analysis of Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) techniques and RAIM availability, and GPS integrity monitoring at a ground reference station. Particular attention is paid to the mathematical aspects of the GPS integrity monitoring system. The research has been built upon the stringent integrity requirements defined by civil aviation community, and concentrates on the capability and performance investigation of practical integrity monitoring systems with rigorous mathematical and statistical concepts and approaches. Major contributions of this research are: • Rigorous integrity and continuity risk analysis for aircraft precision approach. Based on the joint probability density function of the affecting components, the integrity and continuity risks of aircraft precision approach with DGPS were computed. This advanced the conventional method of allocating the risk probability. • A theoretical study of RAIM test power. This is the first time a theoretical study on RAIM test power based on the probability statistical theory has been presented, resulting in a new set of RAIM criteria. • Development of a GPS integrity monitoring and DGPS quality control system based on GPS reference station. A prototype of GPS integrity monitoring and DGPS correction prediction system has been developed and tested, based on the A USN A V GPS base station on the roof of QUT ITE Building.

Legislative and security requirements of audit material for evidentiary purpose

This research used the Queensland Police Service, Australia, as a major case study. Information on principles, techniques and processes used, and the reason for the recording, storing and release of audit information for evidentiary purposes is reported. It is shown that Law Enforcement Agencies have a two-fold interest in, and legal obligation pertaining to, audit trails. The first interest relates to the situation where audit trails are actually used by criminals in the commission of crime and the second to where audit trails are generated by the information systems used by the police themselves in support of the recording and investigation of crime. Eleven court cases involving Queensland Police Service audit trails used in evidence in Queensland courts were selected for further analysis. It is shown that, of the cases studied, none of the evidence presented was rejected or seriously challenged from a technical perspective. These results were further analysed and related to normal requirements for trusted maintenance of audit trail information in sensitive environments with discussion on the ability and/or willingness of courts to fully challenge, assess or value audit evidence presented. Managerial and technical frameworks for firstly what is considered as an environment where a computer system may be considered to be operating “properly” and, secondly, what aspects of education, training, qualifications, expertise and the like may be considered as appropriate for persons responsible within that environment, are both proposed. Analysis was undertaken to determine if audit and control of information in a high security environment, such as law enforcement, could be judged as having improved, or not, in the transition from manual to electronic processes. Information collection, control of processing and audit in manual processes used by the Queensland Police Service, Australia, in the period 1940 to 1980 was assessed against current electronic systems essentially introduced to policing in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s. Results show that electronic systems do provide for faster communications with centrally controlled and updated information readily available for use by large numbers of users who are connected across significant geographical locations. However, it is clearly evident that the price paid for this is a lack of ability and/or reluctance to provide improved audit and control processes. To compare the information systems audit and control arrangements of the Queensland Police Service with other government departments or agencies, an Australia wide survey was conducted. Results of the survey were contrasted with the particular results of a survey, conducted by the Australian Commonwealth Privacy Commission four years previous, to this survey which showed that security in relation to the recording of activity against access to information held on Australian government computer systems has been poor and a cause for concern. However, within this four year period there is evidence to suggest that government organisations are increasingly more inclined to generate audit trails. An attack on the overall security of audit trails in computer operating systems was initiated to further investigate findings reported in relation to the government systems survey. The survey showed that information systems audit trails in Microsoft Corporation's “Windows” operating system environments are relied on quite heavily. An audit of the security for audit trails generated, stored and managed in the Microsoft “Windows 2000” operating system environment was undertaken and compared and contrasted with similar such audit trail schemes in the “UNIX” and “Linux” operating systems. Strength of passwords and exploitation of any security problems in access control were targeted using software tools that are freely available in the public domain. Results showed that such security for the “Windows 2000” system is seriously flawed and the integrity of audit trails stored within these environments cannot be relied upon. An attempt to produce a framework and set of guidelines for use by expert witnesses in the information technology (IT) profession is proposed. This is achieved by examining the current rules and guidelines related to the provision of expert evidence in a court environment, by analysing the rationale for the separation of distinct disciplines and corresponding bodies of knowledge used by the Medical Profession and Forensic Science and then by analysing the bodies of knowledge within the discipline of IT itself. It is demonstrated that the accepted processes and procedures relevant to expert witnessing in a court environment are transferable to the IT sector. However, unlike some discipline areas, this analysis has clearly identified two distinct aspects of the matter which appear particularly relevant to IT. These two areas are; expertise gained through the application of IT to information needs in a particular public or private enterprise; and expertise gained through accepted and verifiable education, training and experience in fundamental IT products and system.

Compliant cryptologic protocols

Literally, the word compliance suggests conformity in fulfilling official requirements. The thesis presents the results of the analysis and design of a class of protocols called compliant cryptologic protocols (CCP). The thesis presents a notion for compliance in cryptosystems that is conducive as a cryptologic goal. CCP are employed in security systems used by at least two mutually mistrusting sets of entities. The individuals in the sets of entities only trust the design of the security system and any trusted third party the security system may include. Such a security system can be thought of as a broker between the mistrusting sets of entities. In order to provide confidence in operation for the mistrusting sets of entities, CCP must provide compliance verification mechanisms. These mechanisms are employed either by all the entities or a set of authorised entities in the system to verify the compliance of the behaviour of various participating entities with the rules of the system. It is often stated that confidentiality, integrity and authentication are the primary interests of cryptology. It is evident from the literature that authentication mechanisms employ confidentiality and integrity services to achieve their goal. Therefore, the fundamental services that any cryptographic algorithm may provide are confidentiality and integrity only. Since controlling the behaviour of the entities is not a feasible cryptologic goal,the verification of the confidentiality of any data is a futile cryptologic exercise. For example, there exists no cryptologic mechanism that would prevent an entity from willingly or unwillingly exposing its private key corresponding to a certified public key. The confidentiality of the data can only be assumed. Therefore, any verification in cryptologic protocols must take the form of integrity verification mechanisms. Thus, compliance verification must take the form of integrity verification in cryptologic protocols. A definition of compliance that is conducive as a cryptologic goal is presented as a guarantee on the confidentiality and integrity services. The definitions are employed to provide a classification mechanism for various message formats in a cryptologic protocol. The classification assists in the characterisation of protocols, which assists in providing a focus for the goals of the research. The resulting concrete goal of the research is the study of those protocols that employ message formats to provide restricted confidentiality and universal integrity services to selected data. The thesis proposes an informal technique to understand, analyse and synthesise the integrity goals of a protocol system. The thesis contains a study of key recovery,electronic cash, peer-review, electronic auction, and electronic voting protocols. All these protocols contain message format that provide restricted confidentiality and universal integrity services to selected data. The study of key recovery systems aims to achieve robust key recovery relying only on the certification procedure and without the need for tamper-resistant system modules. The result of this study is a new technique for the design of key recovery systems called hybrid key escrow. The thesis identifies a class of compliant cryptologic protocols called secure selection protocols (SSP). The uniqueness of this class of protocols is the similarity in the goals of the member protocols, namely peer-review, electronic auction and electronic voting. The problem statement describing the goals of these protocols contain a tuple,(I, D), where I usually refers to an identity of a participant and D usually refers to the data selected by the participant. SSP are interested in providing confidentiality service to the tuple for hiding the relationship between I and D, and integrity service to the tuple after its formation to prevent the modification of the tuple. The thesis provides a schema to solve the instances of SSP by employing the electronic cash technology. The thesis makes a distinction between electronic cash technology and electronic payment technology. It will treat electronic cash technology to be a certification mechanism that allows the participants to obtain a certificate on their public key, without revealing the certificate or the public key to the certifier. The thesis abstracts the certificate and the public key as the data structure called anonymous token. It proposes design schemes for the peer-review, e-auction and e-voting protocols by employing the schema with the anonymous token abstraction. The thesis concludes by providing a variety of problem statements for future research that would further enrich the literature.