Multi-agent simulation of continental, regional, and micro electricity markets

Renewable based power generation has significantly increased over the last years. However, this process has evolved separately from electricity markets, leading to an inadequacy of the present market models to cope with huge quantities of renewable energy resources, and to take full advantage of the presently existing and the increasing envisaged renewable based and distributed energy resources. This paper proposes the modelling of electricity markets at several levels (continental, regional and micro), taking into account the specific characteristics of the players and resources involved in each level and ensuring that the proposed models accommodate adequate business models able to support the contribution of all the resources in the system, from the largest to the smaller ones. The proposed market models are integrated in MASCEM (Multi- Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), using the multi agent approach advantages for overcoming the current inadequacy and significant limitations of the presently existing electricity market simulators to deal with the complex electricity market models that must be adopted.

Technical and economic resources management in smart grids using heuristic optimization methods

Intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) represents a change in the paradigm of power systems operation making small-scale energy generation and storage decision making relevant for the whole system. This paradigm led to the concept of smart grid for which an efficient management, both in technical and economic terms, should be assured. This paper presents a new approach to solve the economic dispatch in smart grids. The proposed methodology for resource management involves two stages. The first one considers fuzzy set theory to define the natural resources range forecast as well as the load forecast. The second stage uses heuristic optimization to determine the economic dispatch considering the generation forecast, storage management and demand response

The electric vehicle integration into the power system: an application to the portuguese case

Electric vehicles (EV) offer a great potential to address the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power grid, and thus reduce the dependence on oil as well as the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The high share of wind energy in the Portuguese energy mix expected for 2020 can led to eventual curtailment, especially during the winter when high levels of hydro generation occur. In this paper a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is implemented, and a hydro-thermal dispatch is performed in order to evaluate the impact of the EVs integration into the grid. Results show that the considered 10 % penetration of EVs in the Portuguese fleet would increase load in 3 % and would not integrate a significant amount of wind energy because curtailment is already reduced in the absence of EVs. According to the results, the EV is charged mostly with thermal generation and the associated emissions are much higher than if they were calculated based on the generation mix.

Assessment and optimization of wind energy integration into the power systems: application to the portuguese system

The increasing integration of wind energy in power systems can be responsible for the occurrence of over-generation, especially during the off-peak periods. This paper presents a dedicated methodology to identify and quantify the occurrence of this over-generation and to evaluate some of the solutions that can be adopted to mitigate this problem. The methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in which the wind energy is expected to represent more than 25% of the installed capacity in a near future. The results show that the pumped-hydro units will not provide enough energy storage capacity and, therefore, wind curtailments are expected to occur in the Portuguese system. Additional energy storage devices can be implemented to offset the wind energy curtailments. However, the investment analysis performed show that they are not economically viable, due to the present high capital costs involved.

Is the electric vehicle a solution for the wind power integration in the portuguese power system?

The integration of Plug-in electric vehicles in the transportation sector has a great potential to reduce oil dependency, the GHG emissions and to contribute for the integration of renewable sources into the electricity generation mix. Portugal has a high share of wind energy, and curtailment may occur, especially during the off-peak hours with high levels of hydro generation. In this context, the electric vehicles, seen as a distributed storage system, can help to reduce the potential wind curtailments and, therefore, increase the integration of wind power into the power system. In order to assess the energy and environmental benefits of this integration, a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is adapted and implemented. From this methodology, the thermal generation costs, the CO2 emissions and the potential wind generation curtailment are computed. Simulation results show that a 10% penetration of electric vehicles in the Portuguese fleet would increase electrical load by 3% and reduce wind curtailment by only 26%. This results from the fact that the additional generation required to supply the electric vehicles is mostly thermal. The computed CO2 emissions of the EV are 92 g CO2/kWh which become closer to those of some new ICE engines.

Sustainability and economic evaluation of microalgae grown in brewery wastewater

This article evaluates the sustainability and economic potential of microalgae grown in brewery wastewater for biodiesel and biomass production. Three sustainability and two economic indicators were considered in the evaluation within a life cycle perspective. For the production system the most efficient process units were selected. Results show that harvesting and oil separation are the main process bottlenecks. Microalgae with higher lipid content and productivity are desirable for biodiesel production, although comparable to other biofuel’s feedstock concerning sustainability. However, improvements are still needed to reach the performance level of fossil diesel. Profitability reaches a limit for larger cultivation areas, being higher when extracted biomass is sold together with microalgae oil, in which case the influence of lipid content and areal productivity is smaller. The values of oil and/or biomass prices calculated to ensure that the process is economically sound are still very high compared with other fuel options, especially biodiesel.

Otimização de consumo energético de equipamento de grande potência

Um dos princípios da Gestão é: “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.” In The Economist – 26.Dez.2008, idea of 19th century English physicist Lord Kelvin. Embora seja uma afirmação aplicável à gestão económica, também pode ser utilizada no domínio da gestão da energia. Este trabalho surge da necessidade sentida pela empresa Continental - Industria Têxtil do Ave, S.A. em efetuar uma atualização dos seus standards de produção, minimizando os seus consumos de eletricidade e gás natural. Foi necessário efetuar o levantamento dos consumos em diversas máquinas e equipamentos industriais, caracterizando e analisando os consumos ao longo de todo o processo produtivo. Para o tratamento de dados recolhidos foi desenvolvida uma folha de cálculo em MS Office ExcelTM com metodologia adequada ao equipamento em análise, que dará apoio ao decisor para a identificação dos aspetos que melhorem o processo produtivo e garantam uma elevada eficiência energética. Porém, não se enquadra no âmbito do Plano Nacional de Racionalização de Energia, sendo uma “auditoria energética” ao processo produtivo. Recentemente, a empresa, tem vindo a utilizar equipamentos eletrónicos que permitem otimizar o funcionamento mecânico dos equipamentos e das potências instaladas dos transformadores, na tentativa de racionalizar o consumo da energia elétrica. Outros equipamentos como, conversores de frequência para controlo de motores, balastros eletrónicos que substituem os convencionais balastros ferromagnéticos das lâmpadas de descarga fluorescente, têm sido incluídos ao nível das instalações elétricas, sendo gradualmente substituída a eletromecânica pela eletrónica. Este tipo de soluções vem deteriorar as formas de onda da corrente e da tensão do sistema pela introdução de distorções harmónicas. Faz ainda parte deste trabalho, um estudo de uma solução que melhore, simultaneamente o fator de potência e reduza as harmónicas presentes num posto de transformação localizado no seio da fábrica. Esta solução, permite melhorar a qualidade da energia elétrica e as condições de continuidade de serviço, garantindo melhores condições de exploração e incrementando a produtividade da empresa.

Pseudo Phase Plane and Fractional Calculus Modelling of Western Global Economic Downturn

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries’ PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972–2012) does not conclude for other partners’ global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Obama's law : analysis of a breakthrough law on healthcare access and lessons for the Portuguese health system management

ABSTRACT - The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act shook the foundations of the US health system, offering all Americans access to health care by changing the way the health insurance industry works. As President Obama signed the Act on 23 March 2010, he said that it stood for “the core principle that everybody should have some basic security when it comes to their health care”. Unlike the U.S., the Article 64 of the Portuguese Constitution provides, since 1976, the right to universal access to health care. However, facing a severe economic crisis, Portugal has, under the supervision of the Troika, a tight schedule to implement measures to improve the efficiency of the National Health Service. Both countries are therefore despite their different situation, in a conjuncture of reform and the use of new health management measures. The present work, using a qualitative research methodology examines the Affordable Care Act in order to describe its principles and enforcement mechanisms. In order to describe the reality in Portugal, the Portuguese health system and the measures imposed by Troika are also analyzed. The intention of this entire analysis is not only to disclose the innovative U.S. law, but to find some innovative measures that could serve health management in Portugal. Essentially we identified the Exchanges and Wellness Programs, described throughout this work, leaving also the idea of the possibility of using them in the Portuguese national health system.

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.

Impacto da crise no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH-SIDA em Portugal Continental : análise temporal 2001-2012

RESUMO - Contexto: O início da crise económica em Portugal no ano de 2009 colocou o país numa grave recessão económica aliada a diversas medidas de austeridade. Como consequência assistiu-se, ao nível nacional, uma diminuição do PIB, aumento do desemprego e assim como uma série de restrições orçamentais em várias áreas, nomeadamente a da saúde. Apesar de existir inúmeros estudos que avaliaram o impacto das recessões económicas na saúde os resultados são controversos e não existe um consenso quanto a esta associação. No que se refere às doenças infeciosas o número de estudos é bastante mais reduzido. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de analisar o impacto da crise atual no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH/SIDA, de forma a complementar a escassa evidência existente neste domínio. Metodologia: Foram analisados 53,296 episódios de internamento nos hospitais do SNS entre o ano de 2001 e 2012, cujo diagnóstico principal é a infeção pelo VIH/SIDA. Considerou-se o ano de 2009 como o ano inicial da crise. Através de regressões multivariadas avaliou-se o impacto da crise no volume de doentes internados, duração de internamento, número de co-morbilidades, risco de ser admitido via urgência e risco de mortalidade no internamento. Adicionalmente repetiu-se a análise por região NUTS II de Portugal Continental (Norte, Alentejo, LVT, Centro e Algarve). Resultados: A crise não teve impacto no volume de doentes internados. No entanto, após o ano de 2009, registou-se uma diminuição de 5.6% na duração de internamento; um aumento de 1.6% no número de co-morbilidades; um aumento de 11.1% no risco de ser admitido via urgência e um aumento de 8.6% do risco de mortalidade no internamento. As análises por região permitiram verificar que as regiões mais afetadas pela crise foram a região LVT e a região Norte. Conclusão: A crise em Portugal não teve impacto na incidência de internamentos por VIH/SIDA. Porém o aumento do número de co-morbilidades, do risco de ser admitido via urgência e do risco de mortalidade no internamento parece refletir um agravamento da severidade dos casos após o ano de 2009. Adicionalmente a diminuição da duração de internamento com o efeito da crise poderá refletir tanto aumento da eficiência dos cuidados prestados ou ao contrário, uma diminuição da sua qualidade.

Angiotensin II receptor blockade: is there truly a benefit of adding an ACE inhibitor?

We assessed the blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) achieved with 2 angiotensin (Ang) antagonists given either alone at different doses or with an ACE inhibitor. First, 20 normotensive subjects were randomly assigned to 100 mg OD losartan (LOS) or 80 mg OD telmisartan (TEL) for 1 week; during another week, the same doses of LOS and TEL were combined with 20 mg OD lisinopril. Then, 10 subjects were randomly assigned to 200 mg OD LOS and 160 mg OD TEL for 1 week and 100 mg BID LOS and 80 mg BID TEL during the second week. Blockade of the RAS was evaluated with the inhibition of the pressor effect of exogenous Ang I, an ex vivo receptor assay, and the changes in plasma Ang II. Trough blood pressure response to Ang I was blocked by 35+/-16% (mean+/-SD) with 100 mg OD LOS and by 36+/-13% with 80 mg OD TEL. When combined with lisinopril, blockade was 76+/-7% with LOS and 79+/-9% with TEL. With 200 mg OD LOS, trough blockade was 54+/-14%, but with 100 mg BID it increased to 77+/-8% (P<0.01). Telmisartan (160 mg OD and 80 mg BID) produced a comparable effect. Thus, at their maximal recommended doses, neither LOS nor TEL blocks the RAS for 24 hours; hence, the addition of an ACE inhibitor provides an additional blockade. A 24-hour blockade can be achieved with an angiotensin antagonist alone, provided higher doses or a BID regimen is used.

Renal responses to three types of renin-angiotensin system blockers in patients with diabetes mellitus on a high-salt diet: a need for higher doses in diabetic patients?

Objective Activation of the renal renin-angiotensin system in patients with diabetes mellitus appears to contribute to the risk of nephropathy. Recently, it has been recognized than an elevation of prorenin in plasma also provides a strong indication of risk of nephropathy. This study was designed to examine renin-angiotensin system control mechanisms in the patient with diabetes mellitus.Methods We enrolled 43 individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. All individuals were on a high-salt diet to minimize the contribution of the systemic renin-angiotensin system. After an acute exposure to captopril (25 mg), they were randomized to treatment with either irbesartan (300 mg) or aliskiren (300 mg) for 2 weeks.Results All agents acutely lowered blood pressure and plasma aldosterone, and increased renal plasma flow and glomerular filtration rate. Yet, only captopril and aliskiren acutely increased plasma renin and decreased plasma angiotensin II, whereas irbesartan acutely affected neither renin nor angiotensin II. Plasma renin and angiotensin II subsequently did increase upon chronic irbesartan treatment. When given on day 14, irbesartan and aliskiren again induced the above hemodynamic, renal and adrenal effects, yet without significantly changing plasma renin. Irbesartan at that time did not affect plasma angiotensin II, whereas aliskiren lowered it to almost zero.Conclusion The relative resistance of the renal renin response to acute (irbesartan) and chronic (irbesartan and aliskiren) renin-angiotensin system blockade supports the concept of an activated renal renin-angiotensin system in diabetes, particularly at the level of the juxtaglomerular cell, and implies that diabetic patients might require higher doses of renin-angiotensin system blockers to fully suppress the renal renin-angiotensin system. J Hypertens 29: 2454-2461 (C) 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.