Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimation of lower flammability limits of C-H compounds in air at atmospheric pressure, evaluation of temperature dependence and diluent effect

Estimation of the lower flammability limits of C-H compounds at 25 degrees C and 1 atm; at moderate temperatures and in presence of diluent was the objective of this study. A set of 120 degrees C H compounds was divided into a correlation set and a prediction set of 60 compounds each. The absolute average relative error for the total set was 7.89%; for the correlation set, it was 6.09%; and for the prediction set it was 9.68%. However, it was shown that by considering different sources of experimental data the values were reduced to 6.5% for the prediction set and to 6.29% for the total set. The method showed consistency with Le Chatelier's law for binary mixtures of C H compounds. When tested for a temperature range from 5 degrees C to 100 degrees C , the absolute average relative errors were 2.41% for methane; 4.78% for propane; 0.29% for iso-butane and 3.86% for propylene. When nitrogen was added, the absolute average relative errors were 2.48% for methane; 5.13% for propane; 0.11% for iso-butane and 0.15% for propylene. When carbon dioxide was added, the absolute relative errors were 1.80% for methane; 5.38% for propane; 0.86% for iso-butane and 1.06% for propylene. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biometry and fetal weight estimation by two-dimensional and three-dimensional ultrasonography: an intraobserver and interobserver reliability and agreement study

Objective To evaluate and compare the intraobserver and interobserver reliability and agreement for the biparietal diameter (BPD), abdominal circumference (AC), femur length (FL) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) obtained by two-dimensional ultrasound (2D-US) and three-dimensional ultrasound (3D-US). Methods Singleton pregnant women between 24 and 40 weeks were invited to participate in this study. They were examined using 2D-US in a blinded manner, twice by one observer, intercalated by a scan by a second observer, to determine BPD, AC and FL. In each of the three examinations, three 3D-US datasets (head, abdomen and thigh) were acquired for measurements of the same parameters. We determined EFW using Hadlock's formula. Systematic errors between 3D-US and 2D-US were examined using the paired t-test. Reliability and agreement were assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), limits of agreement (LoA), SD of differences and proportion of differences below arbitrary points. Results We evaluated 102 singleton pregnancies. No significant systematic error between 2D-US and 3D-US was observed. The ICC values were higher for 3D-US in both intra- and interobserver evaluations; however, only for FL was there no overlap in the 95% CI. The LoA values were wider for 2D-US, suggesting that random errors were smaller when using 3D-US. Additionally, we observed that the SD values determined from 3D-US differences were smaller than those obtained for 2D-US. Higher proportions of differences were below the arbitrarily defined cut-off points when using 3D-US. Conclusion 3D-US improved the reliability and agreement of fetal measurements and EFW compared with 2D-US.

Analysis of ion channel stochastic signals for biosensing

In biological world, life of cells is guaranteed by their ability to sense and to respond to a large variety of internal and external stimuli. In particular, excitable cells, like muscle or nerve cells, produce quick depolarizations in response to electrical, mechanical or chemical stimuli: this means that they can change their internal potential through a quick exchange of ions between cytoplasm and the external environment. This can be done thanks to the presence of ion channels, proteins that span the lipid bilayer and act like switches, allowing ionic current to flow opening and shutting in a stochastic way. For a particular class of ion channels, ligand-gated ion channels, the gating processes is strongly influenced by binding between receptive sites located on the channel surface and specific target molecules. These channels, inserted in biomimetic membranes and in presence of a proper electronic system for acquiring and elaborating the electrical signal, could give us the possibility of detecting and quantifying concentrations of specific molecules in complex mixtures from ionic currents across the membrane; in this thesis work, this possibility is investigated. In particular, it reports a description of experiments focused on the creation and the characterization of artificial lipid membranes, the reconstitution of ion channels and the analysis of their electrical and statistical properties. Moreover, after a chapter about the basis of the modelling of the kinetic behaviour of ligand gated ion channels, a possible approach for the estimation of the target molecule concentration, based on a statistical analysis of the ion channel open probability, is proposed. The fifth chapter contains a description of the kinetic characterisation of a ligand gated ion channel: the homomeric α2 isoform of the glycine receptor. It involved both experimental acquisitions and signal analysis. The last chapter represents the conclusions of this thesis, with some remark on the effective performance that may be achieved using ligand gated ion channels as sensing elements.

A Unitary Approach to Information and Estimation Theory in Digital Communication Systems

This thesis presents the outcomes of a Ph.D. course in telecommunications engineering. It is focused on the optimization of the physical layer of digital communication systems and it provides innovations for both multi- and single-carrier systems. For the former type we have first addressed the problem of the capacity in presence of several nuisances. Moreover, we have extended the concept of Single Frequency Network to the satellite scenario, and then we have introduced a novel concept in subcarrier data mapping, resulting in a very low PAPR of the OFDM signal. For single carrier systems we have proposed a method to optimize constellation design in presence of a strong distortion, such as the non linear distortion provided by satellites' on board high power amplifier, then we developed a method to calculate the bit/symbol error rate related to a given constellation, achieving an improved accuracy with respect to the traditional Union Bound with no additional complexity. Finally we have designed a low complexity SNR estimator, which saves one-half of multiplication with respect to the ML estimator, and it has similar estimation accuracy.

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

A numerical study of temperature effects on hot wire measurements inside turbulent channel flows

A way to investigate turbulence is through experiments where hot wire measurements are performed. Analysis of the in turbulence of a temperature gradient on hot wire measurements is the aim of this thesis work. Actually - to author's knowledge - this investigation is the first attempt to document, understand and ultimately correct the effect of temperature gradients on turbulence statistics. However a numerical approach is used since instantaneous temperature and streamwise velocity fields are required to evaluate this effect. A channel flow simulation at Re_tau = 180 is analyzed to make a first evaluation of the amount of error introduced by temperature gradient inside the domain. Hot wire data field is obtained processing the numerical flow field through the application of a proper version of the King's law, which connect voltage, velocity and temperature. A drift in mean streamwise velocity profile and rms is observed when temperature correction is performed by means of centerline temperature. A correct mean velocity pro�le is achieved correcting temperature through its mean value at each wall normal position, but a not negligible error is still present into rms. The key point to correct properly the sensed velocity from the hot wire is the knowledge of the instantaneous temperature field. For this purpose three correction methods are proposed. At the end a numerical simulation at Re_tau =590 is also evaluated in order to confirm the results discussed earlier.

Context-aware wireless networks

This thesis investigates context-aware wireless networks, capable to adapt their behavior to the context and the application, thanks to the ability of combining communication, sensing and localization. Problems of signals demodulation, parameters estimation and localization are addressed exploiting analytical methods, simulations and experimentation, for the derivation of the fundamental limits, the performance characterization of the proposed schemes and the experimental validation. Ultrawide-bandwidth (UWB) signals are in certain cases considered and non-coherent receivers, allowing the exploitation of the multipath channel diversity without adopting complex architectures, investigated. Closed-form expressions for the achievable bit error probability of novel proposed architectures are derived. The problem of time delay estimation (TDE), enabling network localization thanks to ranging measurement, is addressed from a theoretical point of view. New fundamental bounds on TDE are derived in the case the received signal is partially known or unknown at receiver side, as often occurs due to propagation or due to the adoption of low-complexity estimators. Practical estimators, such as energy-based estimators, are revised and their performance compared with the new bounds. The localization issue is addressed with experimentation for the characterization of cooperative networks. Practical algorithms able to improve the accuracy in non-line-of-sight (NLOS) channel conditions are evaluated on measured data. With the purpose of enhancing the localization coverage in NLOS conditions, non-regenerative relaying techniques for localization are introduced and ad hoc position estimators are devised. An example of context-aware network is given with the study of the UWB-RFID system for detecting and locating semi-passive tags. In particular a deep investigation involving low-complexity receivers capable to deal with problems of multi-tag interference, synchronization mismatches and clock drift is presented. Finally, theoretical bounds on the localization accuracy of this and others passive localization networks (e.g., radar) are derived, also accounting for different configurations such as in monostatic and multistatic networks.

Erasure error correcting codes applied to DTN communications.

The space environment has always been one of the most challenging for communications, both at physical and network layer. Concerning the latter, the most common challenges are the lack of continuous network connectivity, very long delays and relatively frequent losses. Because of these problems, the normal TCP/IP suite protocols are hardly applicable. Moreover, in space scenarios reliability is fundamental. In fact, it is usually not tolerable to lose important information or to receive it with a very large delay because of a challenging transmission channel. In terrestrial protocols, such as TCP, reliability is obtained by means of an ARQ (Automatic Retransmission reQuest) method, which, however, has not good performance when there are long delays on the transmission channel. At physical layer, Forward Error Correction Codes (FECs), based on the insertion of redundant information, are an alternative way to assure reliability. On binary channels, when single bits are flipped because of channel noise, redundancy bits can be exploited to recover the original information. In the presence of binary erasure channels, where bits are not flipped but lost, redundancy can still be used to recover the original information. FECs codes, designed for this purpose, are usually called Erasure Codes (ECs). It is worth noting that ECs, primarily studied for binary channels, can also be used at upper layers, i.e. applied on packets instead of bits, offering a very interesting alternative to the usual ARQ methods, especially in the presence of long delays. A protocol created to add reliability to DTN networks is the Licklider Transmission Protocol (LTP), created to obtain better performance on long delay links. The aim of this thesis is the application of ECs to LTP.

Energy-efficient Communication and Estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks

This thesis focuses on the energy efficiency in wireless networks under the transmission and information diffusion points of view. In particular, on one hand, the communication efficiency is investigated, attempting to reduce the consumption during transmissions, while on the other hand the energy efficiency of the procedures required to distribute the information among wireless nodes in complex networks is taken into account. For what concerns energy efficient communications, an innovative transmission scheme reusing source of opportunity signals is introduced. This kind of signals has never been previously studied in literature for communication purposes. The scope is to provide a way for transmitting information with energy consumption close to zero. On the theoretical side, starting from a general communication channel model subject to a limited input amplitude, the theme of low power transmission signals is tackled under the perspective of stating sufficient conditions for the capacity achieving input distribution to be discrete. Finally, the focus is shifted towards the design of energy efficient algorithms for the diffusion of information. In particular, the endeavours are aimed at solving an estimation problem distributed over a wireless sensor network. The proposed solutions are deeply analyzed both to ensure their energy efficiency and to guarantee their robustness against losses during the diffusion of information (against information diffusion truncation more in general).

Polar Codes for error correction: Analysis and Decoding Algorithms

I Polar Codes sono la prima classe di codici a correzione d’errore di cui è stato dimostrato il raggiungimento della capacità per ogni canale simmetrico, discreto e senza memoria, grazie ad un nuovo metodo introdotto recentemente, chiamato ”Channel Polarization”. In questa tesi verranno descritti in dettaglio i principali algoritmi di codifica e decodifica. In particolare verranno confrontate le prestazioni dei simulatori sviluppati per il ”Successive Cancellation Decoder” e per il ”Successive Cancellation List Decoder” rispetto ai risultati riportati in letteratura. Al fine di migliorare la distanza minima e di conseguenza le prestazioni, utilizzeremo uno schema concatenato con il polar code come codice interno ed un CRC come codice esterno. Proporremo inoltre una nuova tecnica per analizzare la channel polarization nel caso di trasmissione su canale AWGN che risulta il modello statistico più appropriato per le comunicazioni satellitari e nelle applicazioni deep space. In aggiunta, investigheremo l’importanza di una accurata approssimazione delle funzioni di polarizzazione.

Error models for microarray intensities

We derive the additive-multiplicative error model for microarray intensities, and describe two applications. For the detection of differentially expressed genes, we obtain a statistic whose variance is approximately independent of the mean intensity. For the post hoc calibration (normalization) of data with respect to experimental factors, we describe a method for parameter estimation.

Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

Fading pdf of free-space optical communication system with pointing error

A free-space optical (FSO) laser communication system with perfect fast-tracking experiences random power fading due to atmospheric turbulence. For a FSO communication system without fast-tracking or with imperfect fast-tracking, the fading probability density function (pdf) is also affected by the pointing error. In this thesis, the overall fading pdfs of FSO communication system with pointing errors are calculated using an analytical method based on the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs and the fast-tracked beam profile of a turbulence channel. The overall fading pdf is firstly studied for the FSO communication system with collimated laser beam. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations are performed to verify the analytically calculated fading pdf with collimated beam under various turbulence channels and pointing errors. The calculated overall fading pdfs are almost identical to the directly simulated fading pdfs. The calculated overall fading pdfs are also compared with the gamma-gamma (GG) and the log-normal (LN) fading pdf models. They fit better than both the GG and LN fading pdf models under different receiver aperture sizes in all the studied cases. Further, the analytical method is expanded to the FSO communication system with beam diverging angle case. It is shown that the gamma pdf model is still valid for the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs with point-like receiver aperture when the laser beam is propagated with beam diverging angle. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations prove that the analytically calculated fading pdfs perfectly fit the overall fading pdfs for both focused and diverged beam cases. The influence of the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs, the fast-tracked beam profile, and the pointing error on the overall fading pdf is also discussed. At last, the analytical method is compared with the previous heuristic fading pdf models proposed since 1970s. Although some of previously proposed fading pdf models provide close fit to the experiment and simulation data, these close fits only exist under particular conditions. Only analytical method shows accurate fit to the directly simulated fading pdfs under different turbulence strength, propagation distances, receiver aperture sizes and pointing errors.

Estimation of the degree of polarization through computational sensing

The degree of polarization of a refected field from active laser illumination can be used for object identifcation and classifcation. The goal of this study is to investigate methods for estimating the degree of polarization for refected fields with active laser illumination, which involves the measurement and processing of two orthogonal field components (complex amplitudes), two orthogonal intensity components, and the total field intensity. We propose to replace interferometric optical apparatuses with a computational approach for estimating the degree of polarization from two orthogonal intensity data and total intensity data. Cramer-Rao bounds for each of the three sensing modalities with various noise models are computed. Algebraic estimators and maximum-likelihood (ML) estimators are proposed. Active-set algorithm and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm are used to compute ML estimates. The performances of the estimators are compared with each other and with their corresponding Cramer-Rao bounds. Estimators for four-channel polarimeter (intensity interferometer) sensing have a better performance than orthogonal intensities estimators and total intensity estimators. Processing the four intensities data from polarimeter, however, requires complicated optical devices, alignment, and four CCD detectors. It only requires one or two detectors and a computer to process orthogonal intensities data and total intensity data, and the bounds and estimator performances demonstrate that reasonable estimates may still be obtained from orthogonal intensities or total intensity data. Computational sensing is a promising way to estimate the degree of polarization.