Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Improving a global model from the boundary layer: total turbulent energy and the neutral limit Prandtl number

Model intercomparisons have identified important deficits in the representation of the stable boundary layer by turbulence parametrizations used in current weather and climate models. However, detrimental impacts of more realistic schemes on the large-scale flow have hindered progress in this area. Here we implement a total turbulent energy scheme into the climate model ECHAM6. The total turbulent energy scheme considers the effects of Earth’s rotation and static stability on the turbulence length scale. In contrast to the previously used turbulence scheme, the TTE scheme also implicitly represents entrainment flux in a dry convective boundary layer. Reducing the previously exaggerated surface drag in stable boundary layers indeed causes an increase in southern hemispheric zonal winds and large-scale pressure gradients beyond observed values. These biases can be largely removed by increasing the parametrized orographic drag. Reducing the neutral limit turbulent Prandtl number warms and moistens low-latitude boundary layers and acts to reduce longstanding radiation biases in the stratocumulus regions, the Southern Ocean and the equatorial cold tongue that are common to many climate models.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Reduced allergic lung inflammation in rats following formaldehyde exposure: Long-term effects on multiple effector systems

Clinical and experimental evidences show that formaldehyde (FA) exposure has an irritant effect on the upper airways. As being an indoor and outdoor pollutant, FA is known to be a causal factor of occupational asthma. This study aimed to investigate the repercussion of FA exposure on the course of a lung allergic process triggered by an antigen unrelated to FA. For this purpose, male Wistar rats were subjected to FA inhalation for 3 consecutive days (1%, 90-min daily), subsequently sensitized with ovalbumin (OVA)-alum via the intraperitoneal route, and 2 weeks later challenged with aerosolized OVA. The OVA challenge in rats after FA inhalation (FA/OVA group) evoked a low-intensity lung inflammation as indicated by the reduced enumerated number of inflammatory cells in bronchoalveolar lavage as compared to FA-untreated allergic rats (OVA/OVA group). Treatment with FA also reduced the number of bone marrow cells and blood leukocytes in sensitized animals challenged with OVA, which suggests that the effects of FA had not been only localized to the airways. As indicated by passive cutaneous anaphylactic reaction, FA treatment did not impair the anti-OVA IgE synthesis, but reduced the magnitude of OVA challenge-induced mast cell degranulation. Moreover, FA treatment was associated to a diminished lung expression of PECAM-1 (platelet-endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1) in lung endothelial cells after OVA challenge and an exacerbated release of nitrites by BAL-cultured cells. Keeping in mind that rats subjected solely to either FA or OVA challenge were able to significantly increase the cell influx into lung, our study shows that FA inhalation triggers long-lasting effects that affect multiple mediator systems associated to OVA-induced allergic lung such as the reduction of mast cells activation, PECAM-1 expression and exacerbation of NO generation, thereby contributing to the decrease of cell recruitment after the OVA challenge. In conclusion, repeated expositions to air-borne FA may impair the lung cell recruitment after an allergic stimulus, thereby leading to a non-responsive condition against inflammatory stimuli likely those where mast cells are involved. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-level network design with intermediate facilities: An application to electrical distribution systems

We consider the two-level network design problem with intermediate facilities. This problem consists of designing a minimum cost network respecting some requirements, usually described in terms of the network topology or in terms of a desired flow of commodities between source and destination vertices. Each selected link must receive one of two types of edge facilities and the connection of different edge facilities requires a costly and capacitated vertex facility. We propose a hybrid decomposition approach which heuristically obtains tentative solutions for the vertex facilities number and location and use these solutions to limit the computational burden of a branch-and-cut algorithm. We test our method on instances of the power system secondary distribution network design problem. The results show that the method is efficient both in terms of solution quality and computational times. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extending the use of canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms to spin models

We describe the canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms for different systems that can be described by spin models. Sites of the lattice, chosen at random, interchange their spin values, provided they are different. The canonical ensemble is generated by performing exchanges according to the Metropolis prescription whereas in the microcanonical ensemble, exchanges are performed as long as the total energy remains constant. A systematic finite size analysis of intensive quantities and a comparison with results obtained from distinct ensembles are performed and the quality of results reveal that the present approach may be an useful tool for the study of phase transitions, specially first-order transitions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservative ensembles for nonequilibrium lattice-gas systems

We show how to set up a constant particle ensemble for the steady state of nonequilibrium lattice-gas systems which originally are defined on a constant rate ensemble. We focus on nonequilibrium systems in which particles are created and annihilated on the sites of a lattice and described by a master equation. We consider also the case in which a quantity other than the number of particle is conserved. The conservative ensembles can be useful in the study of phase transitions and critical phenomena particularly discontinuous phase transitions.

Canonical quantum potential scattering theory

A new formulation of potential scattering in quantum mechanics is developed using a close structural analogy between partial waves and the classical dynamics of many non-interacting fields. Using a canonical formalism we find nonlinear first-order differential equations for the low-energy scattering parameters such as scattering length and effective range. They significantly simplify typical calculations, as we illustrate for atom-atom and neutron-nucleus scattering systems. A generalization to charged particle scattering is also possible.

Realistic calculations of carbon-based disordered systems

Carbon nanotubes rank amongst potential candidates for a new family of nanoscopic devices, in particular for sensing applications. At the same time that defects in carbon nanotubes act as binding sites for foreign species, our current level of control over the fabrication process does not allow one to specifically choose where these binding sites will actually be positioned. In this work we present a theoretical framework for accurately calculating the electronic and transport properties of long disordered carbon nanotubes containing a large number of binding sites randomly distributed along a sample. This method combines the accuracy and functionality of ab initio density functional theory to determine the electronic structure with a recursive Green`s functions method. We apply this methodology on the problem of nitrogen-rich carbon nanotubes, first considering different types of defects and then demonstrating how our simulations can help in the field of sensor design by allowing one to compute the transport properties of realistic nanotube devices containing a large number of randomly distributed binding sites.

Energy and system size dependence of phi meson production in Cu plus Cu and Au plus Au collisions

We study the beam-energy and system-size dependence of phi meson production (using the hadronic decay mode phi -> K(+) K(-)) by comparing the new results from Cu + Cu collisions and previously reported Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV measured in the STAR experiment at RHIC. Data presented in this Letter are from mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5) for 0.4 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c. At a given beam energy, the transverse momentum distributions for phi mesons are observed to be similar in yield and shape for Cu + Cu and Au + Au colliding systems with similar average numbers of participating nucleons. The phi meson yields in nucleus-nucleus collisions, normalized by the average number of participating nucleons, are found to be enhanced relative to those from p + p collisions. The enhancement for phi mesons lies between strange hadrons having net strangeness = 1 (K(-) and <(A)over bar>) and net strangeness = 2 (Xi). The enhancement for phi mesons is observed to be higher at root s(NN) = 200 GeV compared to 62.4 GeV. These observations for the produced phi(s (s) over bar) mesons clearly suggest that, at these collision energies, the source of enhancement of strange hadrons is related to the formation of a dense partonic medium in high energy nucleus-nucleus collisions and cannot be alone due to canonical suppression of their production in smaller systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bond Strength of Dental Adhesive Systems Irradiated with Ionizing Radiation

Purpose: The aim of the present paper was to determine the effect of different types of ionizing radiation on the bond strength of three different dentin adhesive systems. Materials and Methods: One hundred twenty specimens of 60 human teeth (protocol number: 032/2007) sectioned mesiodistally were divided into 3 groups according to the adhesives systems used: SB (Adper Single Bond Plus), CB (Clearfil SE Bond) and AP (Adper Prompt Self-Etch). The adhesives were applied on dentin and photo-activated using LED (Lec 1000, MMoptics, 1000 mW/cm(2)). Customized elastomer molds (0.5 mm thickness) with three orifices of 1.2 mm diameter were placed onto the bonding areas and filled with composite resin (Filtek Z-250), which was photo-activated for 20 s. Each group was subdivided into 4 Subgroups for application of the different types of ionizing radiation: ultraviolet radiation (UV), diagnostic x-ray radiation (DX), therapeutic x-ray radiation (TX) and without irradiation (control group, CG). Microshear tests were carried out (Instron, model 4411), and afterwards the modes of failure were evaluated by optical and scanning electron microscope and classified using 5 scores: adhesive failure, mixed failures with 3 significance levels, and cohesive failure. The results of the shear bond strength test were submitted to ANOVA with Tukey`s test and Dunnett`s test, and the data from the failure pattern evaluation were analyzed with the Mann Whitney test (p = 0.05). Results: No change in bond strength of CB and AP was observed after application of the different radiation types, only SB showed increase in bond strength after UV (p = 0.0267) irradiation. The UV also changed the failure patterns of SB (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: The radio-induced changes did not cause degradation of the restorations, which means that they can be exposed to these types of ionizing radiation without weakening the bond strength.

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical organization: Number of paths and accessibility

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical systems is reported which is based on the number of paths and the accessibility of each node. The latter measurement is obtained by performing self-avoiding random walks in the respective networks, so as to simulate dynamics, and then calculating the entropies of the transition probabilities for walks starting from each node. Cortical networks of three species, namely cat, macaque and humans, are studied considering structural and dynamical aspects. It is verified that the human cortical network presents the highest accessibility and number of paths (in terms of z-scores). The correlation between the number of paths and accessibility is also investigated as a mean to quantify the level of independence between paths connecting pairs of nodes in cortical networks. By comparing the cortical networks of cat, macaque and humans, it is verified that the human cortical network tends to present the largest number of independent paths of length larger than four. These results suggest that the human cortical network is potentially the most resilient to brain injures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One-dimensional trapped atoms: critical coupling parameter and critical number of particles

In this paper we consider the case of a Bose gas in low dimension in order to illustrate the applicability of a method that allows us to construct analytical relations, valid for a broad range of coupling parameters, for a function which asymptotic expansions are known. The method is well suitable to investigate the problem of stability of a collection of Bose particles trapped in one- dimensional configuration for the case where the scattering length presents a negative value. The eigenvalues for this interacting quantum one-dimensional many particle system become negative when the interactions overcome the trapping energy and, in this case, the system becomes unstable. Here we calculate the critical coupling parameter and apply for the case of Lithium atoms obtaining the critical number of particles for the limit of stability.

On the efficiency of transportation systems in large cities

We report an analysis of the accessibility between different locations in big cities, which is illustrated with respect to London and Paris. The effects of the respective underground systems in facilitating more uniform access to diverse places are also quantified and investigated. It is shown that London and Paris have markedly different patterns of accessibility, as a consequence of the number of bridges and large parks of London, and that in both cases the respective underground systems imply in general, thought in distinct manners, an increase of accessibility. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2010

Pseudolikelihood equations for Potts MRF model parameter estimation on higher order neighborhood systems

This letter presents pseudolikelihood equations for the estimation of the Potts Markov random field model parameter on higher order neighborhood systems. The derived equation for second-order systems is a significantly reduced version of a recent result found in the literature (from 67 to 22 terms). Also, with the proposed method, a completely original equation for Potts model parameter estimation in third-order systems was obtained. These equations allow the modeling of less restrictive contextual systems for a large number of applications in a computationally feasible way. Experiments with both simulated and real remote sensing images provided good results.